Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the steel industry, with expectations of price stability in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a phase where raw material inventory is increasing, and steel production is at an early stage. The expectation is that iron ore prices will decline due to the completion of spring raw material replenishment by steel mills [11][12]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.4%, indicating a stable bottom for the steel industry fundamentals. However, the market sentiment is weak as demand is expected to decrease with the approach of the Spring Festival [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the utilization rate of hot-rolled steel mills to 78.98%, with a slight reduction in weekly production and an increase in inventory levels [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a slight recovery in price margins, with a week-on-week increase of 15.7 CNY, although companies are still facing losses of 22.3 CNY per ton [11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 3.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.7% [11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled steel prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have adjusted downwards by 20 CNY/ton, with a national average price of 3284 CNY/ton [12]. - The total inventory of medium-thick plates in the country is reported at 2.55 million tons, with a decrease of 2.19 million tons from the previous week [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The average price index for 62% Australian iron ore in January was 106.05 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% from December [14]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron ore inventory at steel mills, with a total inventory increase of 11.38 million tons compared to the end of the previous month [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - The operating rate of blast furnaces is reported at 79.53%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53 percentage points [13]. - The daily average pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, which is an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [13].

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.2.2 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BOOKSONOMIC | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3128 | 3142 | -14 | -0.45% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | -0.61% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel products: The production recovery of finished steel products has slowed down. The apparent consumption of rebar has rebounded, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion, but the inventory change is flat month - on - month. In the subsequent consumption off - season, inventory may return to accumulation. The inventory is at a low level and shows a super - seasonal depletion. The inventory depletion speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large, it also shows a super - seasonal depletion, and the recent increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. The overall fundamentals are neutral, lacking driving forces, and the price fluctuates affected by the furnace charge end. It is supported by the cost end at the bottom and lacks upward driving forces at the top [3]. - Iron ore: The current dominant factor of iron ore prices is not its fundamentals but macro - expectations. Under the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is no support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range oscillatory trend [21]. - Coal and coke: The accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the futures market and support steel prices. The follow - up needs to focus on the event's handling results. If the event leads to stricter regulatory production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot - metal production resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term oversupply contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the change in macro - sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", the long - term prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost end at the bottom. In the short - term, after a correction, ferroalloys may show a bottom - oscillatory trend [47]. - Soda ash: Previously, the warming of the commodity market sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the futures price rose. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as new production capacities gradually release output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. Currently, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the number of furnace blockages is increasing. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. The high - level export of soda ash continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - Glass: There are rumors in the market that some production lines have ignition expectations, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual demand and the expected demand are weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - like movement. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired or ignited, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. For example, there was news about the conversion of Hubei's petroleum - coke production lines to natural gas before. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply expectations. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory in the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists as the terminal enters the off - season [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3192, 3117, and 3162 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3316, 3286, and 3305 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month - spread of rebar was 75 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread of hot - rolled coils was 30 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026 [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The summary price of rebar in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 78 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026; the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 46 yuan/ton [9][11]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 784, and 766.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 basis was 42 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.01 tons, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 319.89 tons, the global shipping volume was 2929.9 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16555.1 tons [26]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread and Profit Data**: On January 21, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 163.5 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 113.5 yuan/ton, and the on - paper coking profit was - 25 yuan/ton [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 44 yuan/ton, the silicon - iron 01 - 05 spread was - 5542 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton [48]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 244 yuan/ton, the silicon - manganese 01 - 05 spread was 128 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [49]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1163, 1226, and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 44 yuan/ton [62]. - **Spot Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda in North China was 0 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1039, 1146, and 1200 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [86]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 135, in Hubei was 90, in East China was 91, and in South China was 105 [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 37.7% for steel companies, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for the sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The iron ore prices have increased due to expectations of spring replenishment by port traders, while the reduction of 19 million tons of capacity in Yulin has led to expectations of a reversal in coking coal prices [10][11]. - The domestic hot-rolled coil prices are showing a weak trend, with an average price of 3,306 RMB/ton, up by 16 RMB/ton from December 31 [11]. - The steel industry is experiencing a price increase across the black industrial chain due to raw material inflation, although the steel segment is currently facing a loss of 38.6 RMB per ton [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The report highlights a 3.3% increase in the CITIC Steel Index, which underperformed the market by 0.5% [10]. - The steel industry is at a fundamental bottom, with expectations of price stability in the near term [10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals Overview Steel - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a slight increase in social inventory to 3.9524 million tons, up by 50,400 tons week-on-week [11]. - The demand for steel is supported by macroeconomic expectations, but actual high-level transactions remain low, leading to a forecast of narrow price adjustments in the coming week [11]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have slightly increased from a recent bottom, with some coal types experiencing price adjustments due to improved auction results [12]. - The supply side remains loose as previously reduced coal mines have resumed production, while demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for steel [12]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have risen, with the average price for 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port reaching 826 RMB/ton, an increase of 24 RMB/ton (+3%) from the previous week [13]. - The report anticipates that the replenishment by steel mills will remain restrained due to weak demand in real estate and infrastructure investments [13].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.1.5 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.12.31 | 2025.12.26 | | 价格变动 | 2025.12.31 | | 2025.12.26 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3122 | 3118 | 4 | 0.13% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3300 | 3290 | 10 | 0.30% | | 热轧卷板 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report presents a weekly analysis of the black industry chain, covering various aspects such as market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different products including steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys [1][12][13]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to remain at a low level. The impact of short - term domestic macro - market on prices is limited [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a continuously loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - narrative is positive and the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, the price increase is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The fundamentals of the coal - coke market are still weak. Although the coal price has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two weeks, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The price rebound lacks upward support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side has relatively strong support, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of the futures main contracts and spot prices of various products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and scrap steel from December 19 to December 26, 2025 [8]. 3.2 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, the operating rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 78.32%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.94%. The average daily pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The steel market was mainly in a sideways consolidation state last week. Heavy pollution weather warnings in many places affected the supply side, but it was the off - season for demand, and the weak demand made it difficult for supply changes to drive price increases [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain at a low level [12]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, China's monetary and fiscal policies are in a period of active reserve, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. The real - end of the industrial chain is in a weak equilibrium stage, and prices maintain a narrow - range fluctuation trend. The inventory pressure on the steel product side has been continuously relieved, and the valuation of the industrial chain has rebounded. The strong spot price of iron ore supports the futures market, and the upcoming steel mill restocking cycle may support prices. In terms of supply, the weekly shipment of foreign mines decreased slightly, and the arrival volume remained at a medium - to - high level and was higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly, and the restocking demand is expected to be continuously released. In terms of inventory, the steel mill's imported inventory has increased, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Later Concerns**: Incremental macro - policies, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coal - Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. The coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable, and the steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, with further price cut expectations in the market. Coal mines reduced production at the end of the year, and coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but the overall market transaction was still weak, and the mine - end inventory continued to accumulate. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and the port supervision area inventory was at a relatively high level. The demand was temporarily stable, and the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling [16]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in the production rhythm of coal - coke - steel and changes in the clearance of imported coal [15]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economy maintains resilience, but there are still internal contradictions. In China, Beijing optimized the purchase - restriction policy, and the central bank carried out MLF operations to release a loose signal. The black metal futures market showed a weak sideways trend last week, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures increased slightly. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of manganese silicon increased, but the operating rate was still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years; the production and operating rate of silicon iron continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, while the demand for silicon iron decreased slightly, and both were significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In terms of inventory, the cost support for both manganese silicon and silicon iron was relatively strong [17]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. - **Later Concerns**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [17]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 1.8439 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0271 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3191 million tons; the apparent demand was 2.0268 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0596 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The long - process output was 1.5498 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.026 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3528 million tons; the short - process output was 0.2941 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.001 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0337 million tons. The long - process factory inventory was 1.1345 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.106 million tons; the short - process factory inventory was 0.2661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0032 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0787 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1881 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1598 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0052 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons; the total inventory was 4.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1829 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.3451 million tons [20][23][26][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0163 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.136 million tons; the apparent demand was 3.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0876 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0229 million tons. The social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.106 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6995 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.029 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0018 million tons; the total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.135 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7013 million tons [31][36]. - **Basis**: For rebar in Shanghai, the basis for January was 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 92 yuan/ton; for May, it was 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 77 yuan/ton; for October, it was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 67 yuan/ton. For rebar in Beijing, the basis for January was 133 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 51 yuan/ton; for May, it was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 17 yuan/ton; for October, it was 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis for January was - 18 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 66 yuan/ton; for May, it was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; for October, it was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [39][44][48]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: The total imported ore port inventory this week was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.956 million tons; the Australian ore inventory was 69.4126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6865 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.7914 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 56.6956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.255 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3277 million tons; the trade ore inventory was 103.6761 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6995 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.6771 million tons; the average daily port ore removal volume was 3.1506 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0161 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0915 million tons [51]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.1151 million tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 31.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88; the daily consumption was 2.8004 million tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0054 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0554 million tons; the daily pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0003 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0129 million tons [62]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the iron - making utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the profitability rate was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points [67]. - **Global Shipment (19 Ports)**: The total global shipment this week was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.277 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.027 million tons; the shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 27.846 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.407 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.707 million tons; the non - mainstream shipment was 7.159 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons [71]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 9.126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1215 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0772 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.922 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.085 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.029 million tons; the inventory of 4 ports was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0255 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0952 million tons [109]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 27.578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3023 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5825 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 10.397 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.034 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 0.8067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0017 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.031 million tons; the inventory of 5 ports was 2.995 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1