黑色产业链日报 2025/12/03 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black market is expected to experience low - level oscillations with a slight rebound. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the iron ore market will see the futures price moving towards the spot price, with short - term interval operations recommended. The coal - coke market is expected to have the basis repaired, and the ferroalloy market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation [12][13][15][16]. Summary According to the Directory 01 周度行情回顾 - **Price Changes**: The prices of most varieties showed fluctuations. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2601 increased by 1.73% from 3057 to 3110, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose by 0.93% from 3220 to 3250. The price of coking coal JM2601 decreased by 3.26% from 1103 to 1067, and the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 2.82% from 1420 to 1380 [8]. 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **Steel**: The supply side may tighten as the impact of production line maintenance on output is expected to shrink significantly. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a view of low - level oscillations and a slight rebound. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price is moving towards the spot price. The supply pressure of foreign mines may decline, and the domestic demand is decreasing. It is recommended to conduct interval operations in the short term, with the price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore ranging from 765 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The domestic coal production is stabilizing, but the high - level import of coal and the decreasing domestic hot - metal output may lead to a decline in the spot market, and the basis is expected to be repaired. The futures price is expected to oscillate near the lower limit of the range (1100 - 1300) [15]. - **Ferroalloy**: The demand side lacks resilience and is expected to weaken further. The supply - side contraction is not as expected, and the market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side and downstream demand [16]. 03 品种数据 成材 - **Rebar**: The weekly output was 206.08 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 227.94 tons, a decrease of 2.85 tons. The total inventory was 531.48 tons, a decrease of 21.86 tons [19][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The weekly output was 319.01 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 320.22 tons, a decrease of 4.20 tons. The total inventory was 400.90 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons [31][37]. 铁矿石 - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported ore was 15210.12 tons, an increase of 155.47 tons compared to the previous week. The daily port throughput was 330.58 tons/day, an increase of 0.66 tons/day [51]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8942.48 tons, a decrease of 58.785 tons compared to the previous week. The daily consumption was 289.43 tons/day, a decrease of 2.25 tons/day [61]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3323.3 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons compared to the previous week. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 2663.2 tons, an increase of 65.7 tons [69]. 煤焦 - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.1 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons [95]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2635.5 tons, an increase of 25.8 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons [101]. 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the previous week. The spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous week [132]. - **Output**: The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon was 194775 tons, a decrease of 2135 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.72 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous week [139][141]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel products was 121727 tons, an increase of 320 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 19660 tons, an increase of 117 tons compared to the previous week [144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese silicon was 368000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 71830 tons, a decrease of 1220 tons compared to the previous week [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Iron Ore - Short - term lack of macro - drive, terminal demand of steel shows unexpected rebound, and steel inventory pressure eases, but the increase in rebar production brings pressure to further inventory improvement. - Supply peak of foreign mines has passed, and shipment and arrival volume are expected to decline. Demand side shows short - term fluctuation in hot metal production, but it will decline throughout the year. Inventory will tend to accumulate, and the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore will operate in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline. Coking coal led the decline, and the position of the 01 contract gradually shifted to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Currently, there is a lack of domestic macro - drive, and terminal demand is sluggish. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve effectively, with strong cost support. The supply of ferrosilicon has shrunk slightly, inventory has decreased significantly, and cost support is fair. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction and high inventory of alloys put pressure on prices, and alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the main futures contracts of various varieties on November 21, 2025, compared with November 14, 2025, showed different changes. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar increased by 0.13%, the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.43%, the I2601 contract of iron ore increased by 1.68%, the J2601 contract of coke decreased by 3.29%, the JM2601 contract of coking coal decreased by 7.47%, the SM2601 contract of ferromanganese decreased by 2.47%, and the SF2603 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.23% [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various varieties also changed. For example, the HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai increased by 0.94%, the Q235B hot - rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 0.31%, the PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 0.89%, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 3.27%, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 0.70%, the FeMn65Si17 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.43%, and the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Iron Ore - **Logic**: The increase in finished steel apparent demand and continuous inventory reduction, slowdown in the decline of domestic demand, and the boost of market speculation sentiment by "rumors" support the price. Supply: overseas ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the supply peak may have passed. Demand: domestic demand decreased slightly, and blast furnace operating rate and profitability continued to decline. Inventory: steel mill inventory is low, and port inventory ended the 7 - week accumulation [12]. - **View**: Short - term range - bound. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore operates in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal leading the decline. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price [13]. - **View**: The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomic internal divergence in the Fed's meeting minutes, weak domestic terminal demand. Supply: production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises decreased. Demand: the weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Inventory: silicon - manganese inventory increased, and silicon - iron inventory decreased. Cost: cost support for both is fair [14]. - **View**: Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes and downstream demand [14]. 3.3 Variety Data Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: This week, the total inventory was 15054.65 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 264.73 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased, while that of Brazilian ore increased. Port trade ore inventory decreased, and daily port clearance volume increased [18]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 52.50 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, daily consumption decreased slightly, and hot metal daily output decreased [29]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability**: This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 82.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate decreased slightly, and the profitability rate decreased [34]. Coal and Coke - **Coke Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 880.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 28.32 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises increased, that of 247 steel mills was basically unchanged, and that of 4 ports decreased [46]. - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2609.5 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.23 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased, that of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and that of 5 ports decreased [55]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the daily coke output decreased slightly. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [64][65]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased week - on - week, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the silicon - iron spot price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [81]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the total port inventory was 426.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.9 million tons. The inventory in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port both decreased [88]. - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased [91][94][99]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21, the silicon - manganese inventory increased week - on - week, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased week - on - week. The average available days of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron inventory in November increased month - on - month [103][106]. - **Import/Production**: In October, the import of manganese ore increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron also increased month - on - month [109]. - **Steel Mill Purchase Price**: In November, the purchase price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese remained unchanged month - on - month, and that for silicon - iron increased month - on - month [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets moved sideways this week with little overall fluctuation [62]. - The current operating logic of the black industrial chain lies in weak terminal consumption, with the slump in the real - estate industry being the core factor. The negative feedback mechanism in the industrial chain is transmitted upwards, and different links are affected differently according to their industry status. Overall, weak demand suppresses prices [62]. - On Monday, prices rose due to the influence of rumors, and market expectations for policies are a key factor in price fluctuations. However, the probability of substantial policy introduction is low in the current environment [62]. - The report maintains the previous view that the fundamentals are bearish, and the overall steel and ore markets will remain in a weak pattern [62]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Iron Ore Spot Prices**: PB powder price increased from 783 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, and Bar - mixed powder price rose from 820 yuan/wet ton to 831 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: PB powder's spot landing profit decreased from - 5.41 yuan/wet ton to - 12.08 yuan/wet ton, while Bar - mixed powder's increased from 18.38 yuan/wet ton to 21.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volumes**: Australia's shipments to China increased from 1454.2 million tons to 1812.1 million tons, and Brazil's shipments rose from 725.7 million tons to 847.9 million tons [6]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventories and Related Data**: Imported iron ore port inventory decreased by 77.99 million tons to 15734.85 million tons, the arrival volume decreased by 399.4 million tons to 2369.9 million tons, the port clearance volume increased by 3.11 million tons to 343.39 million tons, the daily port trading volume decreased by 10.5 million tons to 91.6 million tons, the average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 million tons to 236.28 million tons, and the steel - enterprise profitability rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Product Prices**: Shanghai rebar price increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3260 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel - Making Furnace Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 82.19%, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 69.13% [33]. - **Steel Product Profits**: Rebar blast - furnace profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast - furnace profit decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and rebar electric - furnace profit increased by 42 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar weekly output increased by 7.96 million tons to 207.96 million tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output rose by 2.35 million tons to 316.01 million tons [33]. 3.2.2 Another Set of One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar's weekly social inventory decreased by 15.73 million tons to 400.02 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory dropped by 7.1 million tons to 153.32 million tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly social inventory decreased by 8.91 million tons to 324.09 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 78.02 million tons [35]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: Rebar's weekly apparent consumption increased by 14.42 million tons to 230.79 million tons, and hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent consumption rose by 10.83 million tons to 324.42 million tons [35]. - **Building Material Trading Volume**: The building material trading volume decreased by 9111 tons to 95010 tons [35]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates are important indicators for steel production capacity utilization [41]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production volumes in China are presented over different time periods, showing trends in production [43][45]. - **Steel Profits**: The average profit of electric - furnace steel for construction use in China is shown over time, reflecting the profitability of the steel - making process [50]. - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories in social and enterprise warehouses in China are presented, which are important for analyzing supply - demand relationships [51][52]. - **Steel Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building - use steel by mainstream traders in China is shown, indicating market activity [54]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different years are presented, helping to understand market demand [56]. - **Steel Exports**: The monthly export volume of steel in China is shown, which is related to the international market demand for Chinese steel [57]. - **Real - Estate Indicators**: The year - on - year cumulative investment completion of residential buildings by real - estate development enterprises, the year - on - year cumulative sales area of commercial housing, the year - on - year cumulative new construction, construction, and completion areas of houses, and the manufacturing PMI are presented, which are related to the demand for steel in the real - estate and manufacturing industries [58][59][61].

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind富宝资讯： 、 国泰君安期货研究所 ◼ 宏观面：海外宏观：12月降息预期修正，流动性收缩，资产普跌；国内宏观：国内政策进入真空期，考虑权益表 现偏好，短期政策刺激概率有限，此外，随着天气转寒，煤炭从"反内卷"交易转向"保供"交易，供给收缩预 期改变，焦煤期货价格大幅下跌； ◼ 黑色产业链：钢铁需求逐步进入淡季，叠加钢材库存偏高，钢厂利润大幅压缩，同时季节性检修增多，产业链转 为供需双弱格局。热卷库存去化艰难，压制钢材整体反弹高度； 国内宏观：国内政策短期进入真空期 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：炼钢成本下移，钢价低位震荡 ◼ 逻辑：炼钢成本下移，钢价低位震荡 | 2025/11/21 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | 库存 | | | 现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the black产业链 are still limited, and the steel market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The inventory of rebar is decreasing, while the destocking of hot - rolled coils is not smooth. The increase in Tangshan's hot metal production corresponds to the previous concentrated resumption of blast furnaces, but considering the arrival of the maintenance season, hot metal output is expected to decline, and iron ore inventory will continue to increase marginally. Coke has no prominent contradictions and maintains a small - scale destocking. Although coking coal inventory has increased, it is mainly in the Mongolian coal import segment, and the overall inventory is low, so the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. Overall, the current industry's supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the short - term oscillation trend remains unchanged. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts in the later stage, attention can be paid to potential phased upward opportunities [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - After the resumption of work in Tangshan's blast furnaces last week, the output of hot metal in Tangshan has increased, driving up the national hot metal output. However, with the arrival of the steel mill maintenance season, especially in northern steel mills, maintenance plans have been announced one after another. Therefore, it is expected that hot metal output will continue to decline, and iron ore is likely to accumulate inventory, putting pressure on ore prices. In the short term, ore prices will maintain an oscillatory operation. The fundamentals of scrap steel show weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. Coupled with strong cost support, the expectation of a fourth round of price increases is high. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supplementary effect is limited. Although the downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and it is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [3] 3.3 Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand situation is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is also relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, and the bottom support is obvious. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][14] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the futures price oscillates at a low level. The spot market trading is average, mainly with low - price transactions. Recently, the profits of steel mills and electric furnaces are poor, the steel production has decreased significantly, and the demand has also declined. The overall steel inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. In the off - season, the demand is under pressure to weaken, and the futures valuation is low, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy aspects [7] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The hot metal output has significantly recovered, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The spot price has weakened. The overseas mine shipping is relatively stable, and the arrival of ships has decreased. The daily average hot metal output has recovered, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The port inventory has increased, and the overall inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. Although there is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, the short - term increase in hot metal and the un - released restocking demand may lead to a short - term oscillatory strengthening. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and hot metal demand changes [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The daily consumption of steel mills has slightly decreased, and the price oscillates. The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand is also weak. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [8] 3.5.4 Coke - The supply continues to decline, and the hot metal output has increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply has decreased due to high costs, environmental protection requirements, and some coke oven maintenance. The demand has increased as some blast furnaces have resumed full - production. The upstream coke enterprise inventory remains low. In the off - season, the supply - demand is weak, but the demand support still exists, and the fundamentals have few contradictions. After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is still supported, and the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [8][10][11] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The supply recovery is limited, and the upstream inventory has slightly increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply is still tight due to production capacity restrictions in some coal mines. The Mongolian coal import is at a high level, but the high - quality resources are still scarce. The coke production has declined, and the downstream procurement has slowed down, but the upstream coal mine inventory has slightly increased with little pressure. The spot price is still firm. It is expected that the coking coal supply will remain tight, and the price will oscillate [12] 3.5.6 Glass - The destocking this week is limited. Attention should be paid to whether supply reduction through cold - repair can promote upstream destocking. The macro environment is neutral. The short - term supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The spot trading is good, and the futures price oscillates. The macro environment is neutral. The supply has limited changes, and the demand is stable. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support has strengthened, but the downstream demand is declining, and the expected surplus is intensifying. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [14] 3.5.8 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The tender price of HBIS is flat, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve. The cost increase supports the bottom of the futures price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the price increase driving force is insufficient. The downstream demand is expected to decline, and the new production capacity is about to be put into use, so the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The pricing of HBIS has slightly increased, but the price is under pressure due to loose supply - demand. The cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price increase driving force is limited. The production reduction is limited, and the market destocking is difficult. The downstream demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16][17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial product index is 2223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.02, up 0.54% [100] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on November 13, 2025, is 1983.80, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a decline of 0.30% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.57% in the past month, and a decline of 5.90% since the beginning of the year [101]

Report Date - The report is dated November 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs but constrained by inventory on the upside, expected to trade in a range. The operating range for rebar may be between 2900-3200, and for hot-rolled coil between 3100-3400. Attention should be paid to the de-stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3] - Iron ore prices are expected to continue their weak trend in the short term due to macroeconomic and fundamental pressures [22] - Coal and coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure in the short term, but the downside for coking coal spot prices may be limited in the medium to long term [32] - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range, supported by cost but facing high inventory and weak demand [47] - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by cost, with limited upside and downside space [57] - Glass prices are under pressure due to weak sales and high inventory, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long term [82] Steel Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3038, 3096, and 3138 respectively; the closing prices of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3255, 3267, and 3288 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3231 yuan/ton; the aggregated hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [10][12] Price Ratios and Spreads - On November 12, 2025, the 01 roll-to-rebar spread was 217 yuan/ton; the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2 [16][19] Iron Ore Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 774, 747.5, and 724.5 respectively [23] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 775 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Karara fines was 876 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Super Special was 670 yuan/ton [23] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 million tons; the 45-port inventory was 14898.83 million tons [26] Coal and Coke Section Futures Prices - On November 11, 2025, the coking coal 09-01 spread was 128; the coke 09-01 spread was 228.5 [35] Spot Prices - On November 11, 2025, the ex-factory price of Anze low-sulfur coking coal was 1660 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Linfen quasi-first-grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [36] Profit and Ratios - On November 11, 2025, the on-site coking profit was -121 yuan/ton; the main ore-to-coke ratio was 0.453 [35] Ferroalloy Section Silicon Iron - On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42; the silicon iron 01-05 spread was -38 [47] Silicon Manganese - On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206; the silicon manganese 01-05 spread was -58 [49] Soda Ash Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1287, 1354, and 1214 respectively [58] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton; the market price of light soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [61] Glass Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1169, 1240, and 1049 respectively [83] Spot Sales - From November 1 to 7, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe area ranged from 100% to 166% [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The black industry is facing a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors.成材 is expected to run at a low level, coal - coke prices need to pay attention to the previous high pressure, and ferroalloys are predicted to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [12][13][14][15]. - **Specific Sub - sector Views** - **成材**：回归基本面逻辑，低位运行，后期需关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [12][13]. - **Coal - Coke**：Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, supporting the market's confidence in maintaining prices, but demand is in a downward trend. Pay attention to the steel - mill profit situation and production reduction actions [14]. - **Ferroalloys**：Recently, the macro - driving force has weakened. The market trading logic is dominated by the weak reality. The supply - demand contradiction in the alloy market is accumulating, and prices are under pressure but supported by costs, with a narrow - range shock expected [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **螺纹钢**：The futures price of RB2601 dropped from 3106 to 3034, a decrease of 2.32%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3230 to 3190, a decrease of 1.24% [8]. - **热轧卷板**：The futures price of HC2601 dropped from 3308 to 3245, a decrease of 1.90%, and the spot price of Q235B:5.75*1500*C in Shanghai decreased from 3330 to 3260, a decrease of 2.10% [8]. - **铁矿石**：The futures price of 12601 dropped from 800 to 760.5, a decrease of 4.94%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder decreased from 803 to 773, a decrease of 3.74% [8]. - **焦炭**：The futures price of J2601 dropped from 1777 to 1756.5, a decrease of 1.15%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price increased from 1560 to 1570, an increase of 0.64% [8]. - **焦煤**：The futures price of JM2601 dropped from 1286 to 1270, a decrease of 1.24%, and the spot price of Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal ex - factory price increased from 1350 to 1420, an increase of 5.19% [8]. - **锰硅**：The futures price of SM2601 dropped from 5772 to 5760, a decrease of 0.21%, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5660 to 5620, a decrease of 0.71% [8]. - **硅铁**：The futures price of SF2601 increased from 5500 to 5526, an increase of 0.47%, and the spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5250 to 5220, a decrease of 0.57% [8]. - **废钢**：The Mysteel scrap steel price index decreased from 2442.24 to 2438.17, a decrease of 0.17% [8]. 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **成材** - **Logic**：Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 5.19% to 39.83%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% to 83.13%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 87.81%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. The impact of steel - mill maintenance on construction steel production increased. After the macro - level positive factors faded, steel prices returned to the fundamental logic, with weak downstream demand and high inventory pressuring prices [13]. - **Viewpoint**：Run at a low level [13]. - **Later Concerns**：Macro - policies and downstream demand [13]. - **Coal - Coke** - **Logic**：Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated with a slightly lower center of gravity. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases was implemented, with some areas starting the fourth round. Shanxi coal mines further reduced production, and the demand was also declining as steel - mill profits continued to shrink [14]. - **Viewpoint**：Pay attention to the previous high pressure of coal - coke prices [14]. - **Later Concerns**：The resumption process of coal - coke - steel production and changes in imported coal clearance [14]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**：The macro - situation has an impact, with the US government shutdown and China's policy window period. The demand in the off - season is weakening. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises have different trends; on the demand side, the demand from steel mills is decreasing; on the inventory side, the inventory of both is increasing; on the cost side, there is some support [15]. - **Viewpoint**：Prices are expected to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [15]. - **Later Concerns**：Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction situations [15]. 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - **螺纹钢** - **Production and Apparent Demand**：Last week, the production was 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons compared to the previous week [18]. - **Long - and Short - Process Production**：The long - process production was 179.29 tons, a decrease of 3.79 tons compared to the previous week; the short - process production was 29.25 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Inventory**：The social inventory was 425.70 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 592.54 tons, a decrease of 9.98 tons compared to the previous week [28]. - **Basis**：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 156 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 32 yuan compared to the previous week; in Beijing, the basis for January was 236 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 72 yuan compared to the previous week [44][47]. - **热轧** - **Production and Apparent Demand**：Last week, the production was 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.40 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 314.30 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons compared to the previous week [35]. - **Inventory**：The social inventory was 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 410.45 tons, an increase of 3.86 tons compared to the previous week [40]. - **Basis**：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 15 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 7 yuan compared to the previous week [51]. 3.3.2 煤焦 - **Inventory** - **Coke**：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 887.01 tons last week, a decrease of 13.09 tons compared to the previous week [60]. - **Coking Coal**：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2622.17 tons last week, an increase of 34.32 tons compared to the previous week [68]. - **Production and Related Data** - **Coke**：The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 22 yuan last week, an increase of 10 yuan compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous week; the daily average coke production was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton compared to the previous week [76]. - **Coking Coal**：The daily average clean - coal production of 523 coking coal mines was 73.8 tons last week, a decrease of 2.0 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous week [77]. - **Price Ratios and Basis** - **Price Ratios**：The ratio of coke January to coking coal January was 1.38 last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [82]. - **Basis**：For the basis of coke in Rizhao Port, the basis for January was - 68 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 31 yuan compared to the previous week [86]. 3.3.3 铁合金 - **Spot Prices** - **Manganese Ore**：The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36%, South African origin) in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry - ton degree last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [99]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 40 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - **Inventory** - **Manganese Ore**：The total port inventory in the week of October 31 was 431.4 tons, a decrease of 11.3 tons compared to the previous week [102]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises on November 7 was 319500 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises on November 7 was 78690 tons, an increase of 6700 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - **Production** - **Silicon - Manganese**：The weekly production of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises last week was 201880 tons, a decrease of 5845 tons compared to the previous week [104]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The weekly production of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises last week was 11.41 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous week [107]. - **Demand** - **Silicon - Manganese**：The demand from five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a decrease of 3379 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The demand from five major steel types last week was 19813.7 tons, a decrease of 462 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - **Import and Production** - **Manganese Ore**：The import volume in September was 308.49 tons, a decrease of 11.51% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The production in October was 91.57 tons, an increase of 1.92% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The production in October was 50.53 tons, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Steel - Mill Purchase Prices** - **Silicon - Manganese**：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - manganese 6517 in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to the previous month [125]. - **Silicon - Iron**：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - iron FeSi75 - B in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan compared to the previous month [125].