Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a stable outlook based on current conditions and trends observed in the market [11][12]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its fundamental performance, with an average profit level of 16.5 yuan per ton and a current loss of 21.4 yuan per ton. The profit rate for steel companies is reported at 38.9% [11][12]. - Iron ore prices have rebounded due to high port inventories and geopolitical events, despite the completion of spring restocking by steel mills. The report notes that iron ore port inventories remain high at 178 million tons [4][11]. - The demand for hot-rolled coils is currently weak, with prices slightly decreasing and social inventories increasing. However, a potential recovery in demand is expected as downstream operations resume [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel mills' iron ore inventory has returned to baseline levels, while steel inventory has risen to levels close to those seen after the spring restocking in 2025. The strength of this year's spring restocking is weaker compared to 2025 [11]. - The average profit level in the industry has decreased, indicating a challenging environment for steel producers [11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have seen a slight decline, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coils at 3320 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous week. Social inventory for hot-rolled coils has increased significantly [12]. - The metallurgical coke prices have remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1570 yuan per ton. However, the overall supply remains high, leading to pressure on prices [13]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The report indicates fluctuations in iron ore prices, with the price index for 66% iron concentrate at 955 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase. The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics [4][13]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production and inventory levels are being monitored closely, with expectations of a slight increase in hot-rolled coil prices due to low inventory levels in downstream markets and seasonal supply constraints [12][13]. - Iron ore shipments and port inventories are being tracked, with a noted high level of 178 million tons at ports, indicating a potential for price adjustments in the future [4][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The policy stimulus for the real estate industry during the Two Sessions has limited impact on the steel demand for new construction. The steel products market is under pressure, and the overall trend is oscillating weakly [3]. - The iron ore market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. High supply and low demand limit the upside potential of prices, but there is short - term support from inventory replenishment by steel mills [23]. - In the coal - coke market, from March to April, it enters the verification period of terminal demand. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [34]. - For ferroalloys, the price of ferromanganese is supported by news about manganese ore in the short term, but may be restricted by high inventory later. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good, but its upside potential is limited due to the weak downstream of the black industry [49]. - In the soda ash market, supply - side maintenance may increase, which will affect production. The inventory situation is better than expected. The upside price space is limited, and the downside space depends on inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period, with weak production and sales. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside potential, and demand needs to be verified [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3141 yuan/ton, up from 3132 yuan/ton on March 5 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The policy on real estate during the Two Sessions focuses on the revitalization of existing commercial housing and the construction of affordable housing, with limited impact on the steel demand for new construction. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is at a high level, and the fundamentals of steel products are under pressure, lacking the core driving force for price increase [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 729 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan from the previous day. The 05 contract was 772 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [24]. - **Market Situation**: The current core pattern is weak supply and demand. Rain in the Southern Hemisphere has slowed down the shipping rhythm, and steel mills have increased maintenance. High supply and low demand limit the upside potential of prices, but there is short - term support from inventory replenishment by steel mills [23]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5, and the disk coking profit was - 18 yuan/ton [35][38]. - **Market Situation**: From March to April, it enters the verification period of terminal demand. The late Spring Festival this year may lead to a slow post - holiday resumption of work. Uncertain factors in the Middle East route may suppress short - term steel exports. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 138 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 70 yuan/ton [50][51]. - **Market Situation**: The price of ferromanganese is supported by news about manganese ore in the short term, but may be restricted by high inventory later. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good, but its upside potential is limited due to the weak downstream of the black industry [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1242 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.39% [67]. - **Market Situation**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, which will affect production. The inventory situation is better than expected. The upside price space is limited, and the downside space depends on inventory accumulation [66]. Glass - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 3.03% [90]. - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in the recovery period, with weak production and sales. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside potential, and demand needs to be verified [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, non - mainstream ore shipments remain high, suppressing price upside. The Iran situation provides short - term support, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - For ferroalloys, short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - For soda ash, there are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - For glass, actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3131 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month spread was 60 yuan/ton on March 4, up 2 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions were reported. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton on March 4, up 1 yuan from March 3 [9] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Non - mainstream ore shipments are high, and the Iran situation provides short - term support. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from March 3 [23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on daily average iron water production, port throughput, and inventory were reported. For example, the daily average iron water production on February 27, 2026, was 233.28 tons, up 2.79 tons from the previous week [27] Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: From March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - **Prices**: The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 203.5 yuan/ton on March 4, down 5.5 yuan from March 3 [34] - **Spot and Profit**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and import profits were reported. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1520 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [38] Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - **Data**: The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, including basis, month - to - month spreads, and spot prices, were reported. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 116 yuan/ton on March 3, down 2 yuan from March 2 [51] Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: There are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1203 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from March 3 [70] - **Spot and Spreads**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price spreads were reported. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [70] Glass - **Market Outlook**: Actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1038 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from March 3 [94] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions were reported. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on February 27, 2026, was 103 [95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, in March, during the Two Sessions and macro - fluctuation window period, market expectation volatility is expected to increase. Current economic stimulus expectations are low, and demand is pessimistic. Pay attention to the possibility of expectation differences. Valuation is low, and beware of capital re - allocation [21] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it's the terminal demand verification period. Considering the late Spring Festival this year, the post - holiday resumption of work may be slow. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro - sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32] - For ferroalloys, in the short term, silicon - manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but later, due to sentiment release and high - inventory suppression, there is a drive for hedging in the industrial end. Silicon - iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but limited upside due to weak black downstream fundamentals [47] - For soda ash, the current rigid demand is stable. There are ignition expectations in the float glass end and new ignition production lines in photovoltaic glass. Some manufacturers are expected to have maintenance, which will affect production. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation is slightly lower than expected. The upside and downside price spaces are limited, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions [64] - For glass, the actual demand has not returned, and the production and sales are temporarily weak. The market is in the initial recovery stage. High mid - stream inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside, and demand needs to be verified [88] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3131, 3067, and 3105 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3259, 3219, and 3238 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Spreads**: Rebar 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 64, - 38, - 26 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 40, - 19, - 21 yuan/ton [4] - **Spot and Basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis in different regions changed slightly from February 28 to March 2, 2026 [9][11] - **Ratios**: 01, 05, 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were 4; 01, 05, 10 rebar/coke ratios were 2 [18] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 iron ore contracts were 721.5, 754.5, 733.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of 01, 05, 09 contracts were 34, 2.5, 22 yuan/ton respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 233.28 tons, 45 - port throughput was 298.48 tons, and 45 - port inventory was 17091.96 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coking coal were - 193, - 95.5, 288.5 yuan/ton; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coke were - 91.5, - 79, 170.5 yuan/ton [33][35] - **Spot and Profits**: Spot prices of various types of coking coal and coke were stable on March 2, 2026. The immediate coking profit was - 3 yuan/ton [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron**: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 176 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees [48] - **Silicon - manganese**: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions also increased [49] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 soda ash contracts were 1188, 1252, 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 64, - 47, 111 yuan/ton respectively [65] - **Spot**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were stable on March 2, 2026 [65] Glass - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 glass contracts were 1043, 1154, 1216 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 111, - 62, 173 yuan/ton respectively [89] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of glass in different regions were weak in late February 2026 [90]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel industry, with a notable performance driven by policy expectations and supply-side reforms, leading to a significant increase in the CITIC Steel Index by 11.8%, outperforming the market by 9.8% [1][10]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in production and inventory levels post-Chinese New Year, with steel mills increasing their iron and steel output and conducting concentrated replenishment [1][10]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.8%, indicating a stable bottom for the industry, despite a current loss of 4.9 yuan per ton [1][10]. - The market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of weak demand in the short term, particularly in the hot-rolled coil segment, which saw a slight price decrease of 0.1% to 3780 yuan per ton [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is witnessing a rebound in iron and steel production, with a decrease in iron ore inventory and an increase in finished steel inventory, indicating a concentrated replenishment effort by steel mills [1][10]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a significant increase of 11.8%, reflecting strong market performance driven by policy expectations [1][10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals Steel - Steel prices remain stable, with a slight decrease in hot-rolled coil prices and an increase in overall steel inventory by 4.0% to 26.67 million tons, although the current replenishment is weaker than in previous years [2][11]. - The market is facing supply pressures, particularly in East China, with reduced demand from downstream sectors leading to a cautious outlook for future price movements [2][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are stable, with a 4.4% decrease in coking coal inventory compared to the previous week, indicating a cautious market sentiment with limited trading activity [2][11]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have decreased by 1.2% to 760 yuan per ton, with port inventories remaining high at 178 million tons, while steel mills have reduced their iron ore inventory by 17 million tons [3][12]. - The market sentiment has shifted from a pessimistic view to a more optimistic outlook due to macroeconomic expectations, although the sustainability of this optimism remains uncertain [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel industry, with a significant performance increase in the sector, as evidenced by the 11.8% rise in the CITIC Steel Index, outperforming the market by 9.8% [1][10]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in production, with an increase in iron water output and a decrease in iron ore inventory at steel mills, leading to a concentrated replenishment ahead of the Spring Festival [1][10]. - The average profit margin for steel companies stands at 39.8%, indicating a stable bottom for the steel industry's fundamentals [1][10]. - The market sentiment has shifted positively due to anticipated real estate policies and supply-side reforms, although caution remains regarding future demand and macroeconomic conditions [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is witnessing a recovery in production and inventory management, with stable prices across various segments [1][10]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a notable increase, reflecting strong market performance [1][10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Steel prices remain stable, with hot-rolled coil prices slightly decreasing by 0.1% to 3780 CNY/ton, while overall steel inventory has increased by 4.0% to 26.67 million tons [2][11]. - The coking coal and coke prices are stable, with a slight decrease in coking coal inventory by 4.4% [2][11]. - Iron ore prices have seen a minor decline of 1.2%, with port inventories remaining high at 178 million tons [3][12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - Steel prices are stable, with specific segments like hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils showing minor fluctuations [2][11]. - Coking coal and iron ore prices are also stable, reflecting a cautious market environment [2][11][12]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production and inventory levels are being closely monitored, with seasonal demand expected to rise [3][12]. - Iron ore and coking coal supply dynamics are being influenced by external market conditions and domestic demand fluctuations [3][12].

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Steel**: Before the Spring Festival, terminal demand for steel shrinks, trading is lackluster, inventory accumulation of rebar accelerates year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil shifts from inventory reduction to accumulation. The fundamentals are weakening. Blast furnace profits are stable, leading to stable output, while EAF output is likely to significantly reduce. Supply is relatively stronger than demand, and falling raw material prices further suppress the market, though cost and policy provide support at the bottom [3]. - **Iron Ore**: On the supply side, overseas shipments of iron ore decline seasonally, and the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may affect Australian ore shipments. On the demand side, steel mills' restocking is nearly complete, hot - metal production is expected to rise, but it's the off - season for terminal consumption. Port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm, with high inventory pressure, and reduced market risk appetite is suppressing prices [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the festival, domestic coking coal mines reduce production, leading to a seasonal contraction in coking coal supply. Imported coal arrivals are at a low level, and there is an inverted price difference between domestic and international markets. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coking profits. Coke production is expected to pick up, and steel mills'复产 is leading to a slow increase in demand. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the post - festival resumption of production rhythm is the key factor to watch [34]. - **Ferroalloys**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron face a game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices are firm, providing bottom - line support. Ferroalloy profits have rebounded but are still in the red, and production remains low. Steel mills'复产 may drive demand, but the off - season for downstream steel consumption limits demand growth. Silicon manganese has a large inventory base and high de - stocking pressure, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken, and its price is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for mid - stream players such as futures - cash arbitrageurs, but the demand elasticity is limited. The downward price space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In terms of supply - demand, with the release of new production capacities, daily soda ash output is at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, daily melting is temporarily stable, and overall rigid demand is weakening. The heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. Soda ash exports remain high, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [67]. - **Glass**: Market news indicates that due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting capacity of 2,700 tons. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold - repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expected 1,000 - ton cold - repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, float glass will experience concentrated cold - repair before the Spring Festival, which is slightly beyond expectations. The daily melting capacity will drop to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in Shahe, the earliest they can be implemented is after the Spring Festival, and it will take months to produce products. The pre - festival concentrated cold - repair helps relieve the inventory and spot pressure after the Spring Festival. Float glass is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the high inventory in the middle - stream is a risk point. If a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large [91]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3103 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3273 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3228 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3247 yuan/ton. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions remained stable compared to the previous day [4][9][12]. - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2. The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 78, and that of hot - rolled coil was 45 [4][20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of iron ore 01 contract was 733.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 745 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 31 yuan/ton, 05 basis was 1.5 yuan/ton, and 09 basis was 19 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.58 tons, the port desilting volume of 45 ports was 341.08 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 761 tons, the global shipment volume was 2535.3 tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 1881.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2361.3 tons, the inventory at 45 ports was 17140.71 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills was 10316.64 tons, and the available days for 247 steel mills were 36.55 days [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 173.5, the 05 - 09 spread was - 80, and the 01 - 05 spread was 253.5. The 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 90, the 05 - 09 spread was - 75, and the 01 - 05 spread was 165. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [35][37][38]. - **Profit Data**: The on - disk coking profit was - 37 yuan/ton, the main ore - coke ratio was 0.457, the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.832, and the main coke - coal ratio was 1.474 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On February 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40, the 01 - 05 spread was 144, the 05 - 09 spread was - 60, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 84. The spot prices in different regions showed a slight decline compared to the previous week [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On February 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176, the 01 - 05 spread was 104, the 05 - 09 spread was - 42, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 62. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [50][52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1178 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1240 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 62, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 48, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 110. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained stable [68]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening. Soda ash exports remain high [67]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1189 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1226 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 102, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 37, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 139 [92]. - **Production and Sales Data**: The daily production and sales data of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed fluctuations in the recent period [92].

Report Date - The report is dated February 10, 2026 [1] Steel Report Core View - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level, while the production of electric furnaces has significantly decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival. Terminal demand has further shrunk, with transactions showing a situation of "prices but no market". Inventory has continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate of rebar accelerating year-on-year, and hot-rolled coils having shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The significant increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts has exerted upward pressure on coil prices. Overall, finished steel products are oscillating weakly and may test the lower limit of the box-shaped oscillation [3]. Price Data - Rebar: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,133 yuan/ton, 3,052 yuan/ton, and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot-rolled coils: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,263 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spread Data - Rebar spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 81 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -45 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -36 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. - Hot-rolled coil spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 43 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -19 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -24 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore Report Core View - The supply and demand situation is significantly weak. Overseas shipments have seasonally decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on Australian shipments. Steel mills have decent profits, and molten iron production is expected to steadily increase. Terminal steel consumption has entered the pre - holiday off - season. The accumulation rate of social inventory is slower than in previous years, and port inventory has continued to accumulate above the seasonal level, facing significant pressure. Market risk appetite is low, and prices are under pressure [21]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 732 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton, and 744 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, and 1 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly changes were -17, -16, and -16 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - On February 6, 2026, the average daily molten iron production was 228.58 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 341.08 tons, and the global shipment volume was 2,535.3 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke Report Core View - As the Chinese New Year approaches, domestic mines have reduced production, and the supply of coking coal has seasonally shrunk. The domestic and foreign prices of imported coal are inverted, and the arrival volume is at a low level. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and coking profits have improved. The resumption of production of blast furnace steel mills has been slow, and the short - term supply and demand are relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival. There may be a supply - demand mismatch under the background of tight seaborne coal imports [33]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was -175 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -77.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 252.5 yuan/ton [34][36]. - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was -94 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -74.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 168.5 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy Report Core View - Cost support and the pressure of the downstream terminal steel inventory accumulation are in a game. Silicon manganese is facing its own high - inventory pressure, and the manganese ore quotation provides bottom support. Ferroalloy production is already at a low level, and it is difficult to see a significant reduction in production. The resumption of production of steel mills may drive an increase in molten iron, but the demand increase is limited due to the off - season inventory accumulation of terminal steel products. The decline in finished steel products suppresses prices, and in the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [48]. Price Data - For silicon iron on February 9, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5,370 yuan/ton, 5,390 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively [49]. - For silicon manganese on February 10, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 182 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5,570 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,700 yuan/ton respectively [50][53]. Soda Ash Report Core View - There is an expectation of weakening rigid demand, and soda ash is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but the demand elasticity is limited due to the general demand situation. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In terms of supply and demand, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, the daily melting volume is temporarily stable, and the overall rigid demand is moderately weak. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. Soda ash exports remain at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to a certain extent [68]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash were 1,171 yuan/ton, 1,234 yuan/ton, and 1,282 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were -10 yuan/ton, -9 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily decline rates were -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.31% respectively [69]. Glass Report Core View - According to market news, due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting volume of 2,700 tons. There may be more definite news in the next few days. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expectation of 1,000 - ton cold repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, it means that float glass will experience concentrated cold repair before the Spring Festival, slightly exceeding expectations. The daily melting volume will decline to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in the Shahe area, even the earliest ones will not be implemented until after the Spring Festival, and it will take several months to produce products. This wave of pre - Spring Festival concentrated cold repair will help relieve the inventory accumulation pressure and spot price pressure after the Spring Festival. In terms of supply and demand, float glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Regardless of how the supply expectation changes, the high inventory of the glass middle - stream is a risk point. Currently, it seems that the terminal may not be able to digest it, so once a negative feedback occurs, the spot price pressure will be significant [91]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass were 1,087 yuan/ton, 1,189 yuan/ton, and 1,224 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 23 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and -9 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily increase/decrease rates were 2.16%, 1.62%, and -0.73% respectively [92].