伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月5日伦铜最新库存量报180575公吨，较上个交易日增加1925公吨，涨幅 1.08%。 长江铜业网讯：悲观氛围持续蔓延，市场厌恶情绪急剧升温，叠加贵金属板块重挫，沪铜跟随金银走 软。今日沪铜主力 2603 合约早盘低开，开盘价 99540 元/吨，跌 2960 元，触及最低位97920元/吨。 宏观层面，美国就业市场形势严峻。1 月雇主宣布裁员人数达 10.8 万，同比增 118%，环比 12 月增 205%，新招聘计划仅 5300 人，为 2009 年以来最低值。全球市场竞争加剧及 AI 科技革命，使传统行业 私人部门就业规模收缩，可能影响美国一季度居民消费支出，拖累经济增长。昨夜金银价格大跌拖累伦 铜走势，全球最大白银杠杆 ETF 大规模抛售白银，向拥挤的市场释放抛压，短期贵金属底部难寻，需 待杠杆资金风险降温后市场回归合理估值。美股周四大幅收跌，科技股领跌；国际油价周四跌近 3%， 布伦特原油期货收于每桶 67.55 美元，美国原油收于每桶 63.29 美元，进一步挫伤市场风险情绪，铜价 面临较大利空压力。 产业端传来消息，两家矿业巨头潜在合并交易期限临近，力拓坚持合并后董事 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The report analyzes the real estate cycle in the UK, highlighting a significant decline in transaction volumes and prices post-2007 crisis, with second-hand home transactions dropping for 23 months by 64% and new home transactions falling for 54 months by 59% [1][5] - Currently, second-hand transaction volumes have recovered to 66% of their peak, while new home transactions are at 45% of their peak. House prices have increased to 1.55 times the pre-crisis peak after 83 months of recovery [1][5] - The report notes that the UK real estate market has been influenced by quantitative easing (QE) and stamp duty adjustments, with the latter having a more significant impact on market fluctuations [6] Group 2: Transportation Sector - China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 8 billion to RMB 10 billion for the year 2025, with a loss in Q4 2025 expected to be between RMB 13.07 billion and RMB 15.07 billion, indicating a reduction in losses compared to Q4 2024 [10][11] - The airline's operational metrics show steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 6.57% and 8.28% respectively in 2025, and a slight rise in passenger load factor to 85.74% [10][11] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the airline's strategic route planning, leading to a maintained "overweight" rating for the stock [10][11] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The report indicates that convertible bond valuations are becoming increasingly bubble-like, with lower cost-effectiveness for investors. However, the long-term bullish trend in equities remains intact, suggesting potential upward movement in convertible bond valuations [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with sustained growth and high earnings realization, particularly in AI technology and commodities, while advising caution regarding high-risk convertible bonds [14][16] - In January, the convertible bond market saw a slight increase in issuance, with a total of 57.8 billion RMB in new bonds, reflecting a mixed demand from various investor types [16]

黄金、白银在进入2026年后，伴随着特朗普的一系列激进动作，快速将美元贬值交易的叙事演绎到极致，相关资产的波动率飙升，并最终引发了近 期的暴跌。 需要看清楚的是，这一波疯狂周期的加速度： ①1000→2000美元： 黄金走了12年（2008-2020年初） 过去一周见证了多项历史，黄金以迅雷不及掩耳之势急冲到5500后，一"什"激起千层浪，坐直升机跌到4680点，单日跌幅超过500点，创下40年来的 历史记录。（数据来源：Wind） 黄金白银历史级别的大跌带来系列连锁反应，冲击全球风险偏好，避险情绪迅速蔓延，波及海内外、股债汇等全球资产，前几个交易日内，不少账 户都经历了激烈的波动。 写作本文的此时此刻，市场已经修复、平静了很多。但经历了疯狂的几日之后，或许大家会对黄金的定价和地位，有了更加清晰的心理锚定，对于 波动加大、资产联动加强时期的多资产配置应对，也会有一些新的理解，一起来聊聊。 #重新定义"避险" 当黄金单日暴跌500点 ②2000→3000美元： 用了5年（2020-2025年年初） ③3000→4000美元： 缩短到7个月（2025.1-2025.8） ④4000→5500美元： 仅用了不到5个 ...

文/任泽平 最近股市，大宗商品，黄金，铜，白银价格纷纷大幅调整，应该怎么办，很多人都感到迷茫，现在前期 看多的人开始纷纷多转空。 我在这个时候愿意站出来给大家打打气。 我问大家三个问题，我相信对大宗商品和股市都会得到自己的答案。 第一个问题，现在中国、美国货币宽松的方向有没有变？ 大家看到中国现在物价低位，刚刚公布的1月份PMI指数回落到荣枯线下，说明经济复苏的基础其实并 不牢固，所以我们还需要继续的货币宽松。 而且，我们的权威部门、重要会议都多次强调，2026年保持适度宽松的货币政策，2026年会继续降息降 准。 1987年美国爆发了黑色星期一，当时美股暴跌，整个市场都傻了，都不知道发生了什么。巴菲特来到办 公室，该看报纸，看报纸，该看报告，看报告，该下班正常就下班了，整个一天没有任何情绪波动，巴 菲特就好像没事发生一样。 股市是货币的晴雨表。 第二个灵魂问题，特朗普提名的新美联储主席沃什是鹰派还是鸽派？他的货币政策取向是宽松还是收 紧？ 其实这个问题不难回答，特朗普一直追求降息，而且对美国经济、就业，包括股票市场特别关心，把股 市作为自己政绩的一部分。特朗普会提名一个鹰派，加息收紧货币政策导致美国经济和股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Although the convertible bond valuation is becoming increasingly frothy and the allocation cost - effectiveness is low, the long - term and slow - bull pattern of the equity market remains unchanged. With potential incremental funds in the future, the A - share market's long - term and slow - bull market is expected to continue. Against this backdrop, the convertible bond valuation may have room for further upside and still holds trading value, but with high volatility. In trading, avoid high - price and high - premium and near - call convertible bonds, and focus on industries with continuous upward momentum and high performance realization [1][25]. - Specific investment suggestions include: (1) Pay attention to convertible bonds in the AI technology field such as Aiwei Convertible Bond, Luwei Convertible Bond, Huamao Convertible Bond, and Chun23 Convertible Bond; (2) Focus on large - scale chemical, coal, and precious metal sectors, and suggest paying attention to Naipu Zhuan02 and Pingmei Convertible Bond; (3) Consider individual bonds at relatively low levels and on the verge of rising from the cycle bottom, such as Huitian Convertible Bond and Huakang Convertible Bond [1][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 26 - year 1 - month Market Review - Equity Market - The equity market had a strong start in January 2026, driven by the continuation of the bullish sentiment at the end of 2025 and the capital allocation demand at the beginning of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4190.9 points on January 14, hitting a new high since September 24, 2024. The main market trends were driven by commercial space, AI, and the pro - cyclical market spurred by record - high precious metal prices. The market was cooled down by the increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, but the bullish sentiment remained strong, and the index fluctuated upward. The monthly returns of the CSI 300, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap Index were + 1.7%, + 8.2%, and + 10.6% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index rose by + 3.8% and + 4.5% respectively. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase from December 2025 [26]. - Most industry sectors in the equity market closed higher in January. The non - ferrous metals sector led the rise due to the sharp increase in COMEX gold, silver, and copper prices. The pro - cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, coal, and steel also performed well. The media and computer sectors were boosted by the development of AI applications. The electronics, power equipment, and military industries also showed some performance, while the consumption and large - scale financial sectors underperformed [29]. 2.2 26 - year 1 - month Market Review - Convertible Bond Market - In January, the convertible bond market was driven by both the underlying stocks and valuation, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 5.8%, the same as the Wind All - A Index. Structurally, high - price, small - cap, and low - rating convertible bonds outperformed, and the high - price and low - premium convertible bonds significantly outperformed the double - low index. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 920.3 billion yuan, an increase from December 2025. In terms of industries, most of the 29 Shenwan industry convertible bond indexes rose, with machinery and communication leading the way. Among individual bonds, semiconductor - related convertible bonds such as Jingce Zhuan2, Huayi, and Dinglong Convertible Bond had the highest monthly returns [36][38]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - In January, the convertible bond valuation became more frothy. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market at the end of the month was 42.6%, up 4.45 percentage points from the end of December 2025, reaching the 99.5% and 99.3% quantiles since 2018 and 2021 respectively. The conversion premium rates for different par values of 40, 60, 80, 90, 110, 120, and 130 yuan increased by varying degrees compared to the end of December 2025 and were at high quantile levels [40]. - Measured by the median price of the whole market, the median price of convertible bonds at the end of the month was 140.0 yuan, up 6.3 yuan from the end of December 2025, and the median par value was 108.6 yuan, up 6.9 yuan. The median conversion premium rate and pure bond premium rate also changed compared to the end of December 2025 [47]. 4. Convertible Bond Supply and Demand 4.1 Convertible Bond Supply - In January 2026, the issuance scale of convertible bonds increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. Five new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 57.8 billion yuan. Eight convertible bonds with a total scale of 55.87 billion yuan obtained registration approval, and 11 public convertible bond board proposals were announced, with a to - be - issued scale of 137.99 billion yuan. Thirteen convertible bonds announced call redemption and two matured and were redeemed [55][59][60]. 4.2 Convertible Bond Demand - In the context of the A - share market's trend, the share of convertible bond ETFs stopped falling and rebounded, and public funds further increased their positions in convertible bonds. Insurance funds continued to reduce their positions in convertible bonds due to the high valuation. The enterprise annuity's holdings of convertible bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges showed different trends, but overall, it was expected to maintain a slight reduction trend [61]. 5. Clause Tracking 5.1 Redemption - As of January 30, 13 convertible bonds were confirmed for call redemption, 21 were likely to be called, and 14 were not to be called [64]. 5.2 Downward Revision - As of January 30, four convertible bonds confirmed downward revisions, five proposed downward revisions, five were likely to trigger downward revisions, and 18 announced no downward revisions for the time being [67].

Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing two major trends: de-globalization and the AI technology revolution, expected to last at least 5-10 years[34] - The US dollar may have entered a long-term depreciation cycle, with global commodities likely entering a new "super cycle," leading to sustained price increases for gold, copper, and certain minor metals[34] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to enter a long-term slow bull trend, driven by the AI technology revolution and re-inflation, contingent on stable US-China relations[34] - The overall market is expected to show an upward trend in Q1, followed by fluctuations in Q2 and Q3, and a recovery in Q4[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors related to AI, copper, rare earths, and gold, as well as military trade exports and domestic demand upgrades[3] - Anticipate a shift in market sentiment towards consumption in the second and third quarters, as the market narrative evolves towards "low inflation"[3] Market Dynamics - The current economic transition in China is marked by a shift in the real estate cycle and the transformation of old and new growth drivers[35] - A stable economic cycle in China is expected to lead to reduced volatility in the A-share market, supporting the long-term slow bull trend[35]

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, indicating a potential super cycle driven by the "AI leap" and "century change" narratives [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 3, the non-ferrous sector saw a rebound, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3% [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the net inflow into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached nearly 1.7 billion yuan, increasing its fund size to 2.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is supported by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] - Historical data indicates that commodity cycles last long, typically 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years [1] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [1] Group 3: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of indices, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant trading volume and price increases observed in related ETFs [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to enter a super cycle driven by the convergence of the "AI leap" and "century change," with historical patterns indicating that commodity cycles can last 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years [3] - Major non-ferrous metal ETFs, such as the one from China Merchants (159690), have a high concentration in key commodities like copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), which together account for nearly 60% of the portfolio [3] Group 2 - Analysts predict that by 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry may experience a bull market driven by a combination of monetary, demand, and supply factors [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by a "leverage effect," where rising metal prices lead to significant profit increases for mining companies, resulting in a "Davis double play" scenario where net asset value increases multiple times compared to the commodity price itself [3]