当下贵金属市场，正上演一出真实版"冰与火之歌"。 本是该从从容容游刃有余的布局时刻，可现在不少投资者却被逼得匆匆忙忙连滚带爬。 一边是火焰滔天，做多情绪飙到顶点，拥挤度直接拉满。 沪银VIX和美国SLV期权波动率，双双触及历史极值。 另一边却是寒冰骤降，画风突变猝不及防，铂金现货突发大跌。 资金分歧赤裸裸摆上台面，当下是否正是贵金属的转折点？答案反倒愈发清晰。 短期先避险躲坑，中长线再逢低布局——所谓"风浪越大鱼越贵"，跳出短期波动迷局，方能接住长期趋势的红利。 短期扰动：调仓抛压下，别当接盘侠 短线玩家先清醒，此刻追高大概率站岗。 最确定的风险，来自一场"被动调仓大搬家"。 彭博商品指数（BCOM）1月8日至15日将开启年度调仓。 被动基金如同"乖学生"，严格跟着指数调整持仓，毫无灵活操作空间，只能被动承接调仓压力。 其中白银将面临9%的卖盘冲击，黄金也有3%抛压。 这笔抛压足以搅乱短期盘面，引发震荡。 短线博弈拼的是反应快，而非死扛硬顶。 长期锚点：四大逻辑筑牢黄金牛市根基 短线波动只是小风浪，改变不了长期上行趋势。 黄金能一路走强，靠的是实打实的核心支撑。 格隆汇研究院早有前瞻布局，绝非事后诸葛亮。 2 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed to maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" shifts to maintaining a "reasonable proportion," indicating a potential decline from the current level, which is double the OECD average[2][10]. - In 2024, China's nominal manufacturing value added is projected to account for 24.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the OECD average of 12.4%[2][10]. - From 2011 to 2020, China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 31.6% to 25.7%, but the decline has slowed since 2020 due to real estate cycle adjustments[2][11]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Rates - The annualized growth rate of China's real manufacturing value added (PPP) from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 4.6%, surpassing the global average of 1.7% during the same period[2][20]. - High-end manufacturing investment is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 12.2% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing the overall manufacturing investment growth rate of 9.5%[3][26]. - Traditional manufacturing sectors are expected to see an investment growth rate increase from 2.9% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to an average of 8.9% from 2021 to 2024[3][27]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Prospects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in high-tech industries and aims to enhance competitiveness in sectors like AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum information[3][29]. - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to rise from 340,000 units in 2015 to 13.168 million units in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the sector[3][46]. - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 17.2%[3][48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the recent weak performance of the A-share market is influenced by both internal and external factors, with external factors playing a dominant role. Despite this, the underlying logic of the current upward trend remains intact, suggesting a positive mid-term outlook for the A-share market [1][2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights three main investment themes for the current market conditions: 1) Growth sectors such as computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure are expected to present opportunities, particularly in domestic markets. Applications in robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software are also noted. Additionally, sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, and solid-state batteries are entering a growth cycle [1][6] 2) External demand is identified as a relatively certain growth opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, construction machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources such as non-ferrous metals [1][6] 3) The report suggests monitoring cyclical reversals, particularly in industries approaching supply-demand improvement points or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1][6] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the underlying drivers of the market's upward trend have not changed, with the macro policy shift since last year providing a foundation for stabilizing and recovering the market. Factors such as low interest rates, increased household deposits, and regulatory support for capital markets are highlighted as conducive to market growth [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that the current market correction may provide a favorable opportunity for positioning ahead of the anticipated market performance in the first half of 2026. Despite limited positive catalysts in the short term, the overall valuation of the A-share market remains attractive compared to global peers and other asset classes [5][6]

截至2025年12月16日 13:50，上证科创板100指数(000698)成分股方面涨跌互现，茂莱光学(688502)领涨 4.24%，芯源微(688037)上涨4.10%，经纬恒润(688326)上涨2.85%；国盾量子(688027)领跌。科创 100ETF基金(588220)最新报价1.28元。 科创100ETF基金(588220)，场外联接(A：019861；C：019862；I：022845) 券商研究方面，国信证券认为，总体而言，在重要会议为"十五五"开局之年定下积极有为的基调，以及 中外流动性宽松周期共振的背景下，A股市场估值相对合理，AI科技革命与能源革命支撑部分产业需 求，上市公司业绩改善有望助力市场继续震荡上行。 开源证券在电子行业周报中指出，半导体设备自主可控是当前兼具确定性和弹性的科技主线，近期半导 体板块领涨，但受海外科技股波动及部分成分股业绩不及预期影响，板块整体呈现分化。该机构认为， 科创100指数中半导体设备类成分股（如芯源微、中科飞测）的逆势上涨，或反映市场对国产化替代逻 辑的持续认可；而存储芯片供需紧张态势可能对相关产业链标的形成支撑，但需注意海外流动性及行业 周期波动对 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on December 15, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.71%, and ChiNext Index down 1.29% [1] - The financial sector saw a broad increase, with the insurance sector leading the market, while consumer policies boosted a rebound in the liquor sector and other food and beverage stocks [1] - The China Securities Index Company announced periodic adjustments to several indices, including the CSI 500, which added 20 new stocks, enhancing the representation of emerging industries to 51.2% [1] Group 2 - Recent economic policy discussions from the Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference have been positive, indicating a focus on key industries for the upcoming year, which may lead to increased support for the A-share market [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to stabilize economic growth and manage inflation through various monetary tools [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market valuation is reasonable, supported by the AI technology and energy revolutions, which may improve corporate performance and market conditions [2] Group 3 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has risen for two consecutive months, indicating positive factors for price recovery [3] - Analysts believe that expanding domestic demand and improving supply-demand relationships are crucial for enhancing corporate operations and price recovery [3] - The market is expected to see a new wave of activity driven by structural trends and capital market reforms, with recent adjustments indicating a completion of market corrections [3] Group 4 - Overall, the structural bull market in 2025 is seen as being in a high position, with expectations for a cross-year market rally supported by key domestic meetings and favorable market sentiment [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as domestic production, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [4] - There are also opportunities in cyclical sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and consumer sectors that may see short-term boosts from consumption policies [4] Group 5 - As of December 15, 2025, the CSI A500 Index was down 0.60%, with significant trading activity in the A500 ETF, which saw a turnover of 5.67% and a transaction volume of 767 million yuan [5] - The top-weighted stocks in the A500 ETF accounted for 20.04% of the index, with notable gains from China Ping An and Midea Group [5] - The A500 ETF has a latest scale of 13.562 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 104 million yuan recently [5]

1．中央经济工作会议：稳中求进、提质增效 【 摘要 】华泰证券何康称，紧缩货币环境改善叠加市场预期升温，"春季躁动"可能在12月中下旬 提前启动。中金公司固收团队称，11月金融数据偏弱，货币政策宽松预期升温增强债券配置吸引 力，短端确定性机会相对更大。 一、焦点锐评 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚 持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提 升宏观经济治理效能。强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。 【解读】中信证券明明指出，会议对宏观经济的定调较去年更加积极，在此背景下明年政策重心 也更加侧重提质增效，财政政策维持必要强度，货币政策灵活高效与之配合。对于债市而言，基 于会议对货币政策降准降息以及对财政扩张相对温和的表态，有望给当前的市场情绪带来一定提 振。 二、权益市场 1.华泰证券：春季躁动或提前启动 华泰证券何康等称，紧缩货币环境改善叠加市场预期升温，"春季躁动"可能在12月中下旬提前启 动。建议注重成长与周期的均衡配置，大金融与高性价比消费 ...

笔记财经晨会 . 每个交易日早晨发布音频《笔记晨会》及文字《笔记早餐》。 【笔记大咖局|观点汇总】 1、如何看待后续权益市场？ 以下文章来源于笔记财经晨会 ，作者笔记小助手 ①全球主要经济体股市普遍下跌，核心扰动来自投资者对美联储降息节奏的预期反复摇摆和市场对AI资产是否存在泡沫的担忧。AI科技革命与能源革命 从上游原材料到中游制造形成了坚实的需求支撑成长产业在高景气将带动上市公司业绩持续改善。 ②年末需密切留意房地产促销费等相关领域的政策信号。 ③11月光伏各环节价格均环比持平，消费品领域传统消费景气度有待提振。 ④金融板块中行业银行凭借高股息属性吸引中长期资金配置。 中金公司： 聚焦人工智能应用落地环节， 关注国产算力光模块云计算基础设施以及机器人电子消费。 美元维持弱势震荡，两年期美债收益率可能在3.34到3.74之间震荡。十年期美债收益率可能在3.9到4.3之间震荡，汇率方面美元指数预计在97到101区间维 持弱势震荡。 美联储降息利好外部环境，国内限制放松有助于打开总量型政策空间。 ③债市和货币政策展望 浙商证券： 宽基指数多数实现上涨，其中创业板指涨幅居前。股票ETF呈现净流出，量化指标显示科创显 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese private equity industry is transitioning from quantitative expansion to qualitative transformation, supported by the "Golden Yangtze" private equity empowerment plan launched by Changjiang Securities, Industrial Bank, and Securities Times [1] - As of October 2025, the private fund scale reached 22.05 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of 1.31 trillion yuan from September, surpassing the previous historical peak of 20.81 trillion yuan in September 2023 [3] - The surge in private equity is primarily driven by private securities investment funds, which saw a record high of 7.01 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 17.42% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The A-share market has experienced significant growth this year, with various sectors, including precious metals and industrial metals, performing well, creating a favorable environment for private equity [3] - The "Golden Yangtze" initiative aims to provide comprehensive services to private fund managers, facilitating connections between long-term capital and quality managers [6] - The commodity market is viewed as having strategic allocation opportunities due to factors such as resource scarcity, low supply growth, and a recovering global economy, which are expected to drive demand for commodities [9][10] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Insights - Factor investing is entering a new era, with a noticeable decline in factor momentum and a divergence in factors across different market segments [7][8] - Private fund managers emphasize the importance of focusing on undervalued sectors and long-term value creation, suggesting a shift towards low-valuation areas for better returns [11][12] - The ongoing technological revolution, particularly in AI, is seen as a critical opportunity for China's economic growth, with a focus on innovation and investment in leading companies [13]

（来源：好买财富） 来源：市场资讯 回看2025年，AI科技革命继续引领新的资本开支与消费周期，全球股市延续着AI科技主题主导的慢 牛。 与此同时，宽松的货币环境也利好资本市场表现，美国、日本、德国等多国股市持续刷新历史新高。 但另一方面，随着行情推进，股市估值抬升，市场波动也在加大。而且随着美联储接近降息终点，全球 宏观政策层面也有诸多不确定性。 这种环境中，一方面，中美科技资产仍具配置价值，另一方面，我们也应寻找更多与股市低相关的优质 回报流，做好合理的配置，应对潜在波动。 为了帮助大家更深入的了解当前的市场环境和资配思路，更高效的进行全球配置，我们准备了"AI科技 浪潮中的全球配置"系列文章。 本文是系列文章的第四篇，我们将详细介绍全球对冲策略这一有效的配置工具。首先，我们先复盘对冲 策略年内的业绩表现，随后一同来了解当前投资环境下全球对冲策略的配置意义。 1 全球对冲策略业绩复盘 年内各类策略普遍盈利 我们所讲的全球对冲策略，指资产管理人在全球范围内捕捉投资机会，而且具体的投资策略并不是以传 统的方式投资于传统资产，是利用多种金融工具，构建复杂的交易策略，有时既做多也做空，两头对 冲，这就是"对冲"两 ...

运舟资本 最新观点： 市场处于"牛市中场休息"，AI迎来"Google时刻" 市场观点 国内各个工业领域反内卷政策不断推进，将有利于工业品价格的企稳回升，PPI通缩状况有望持续好 转。以深陷通缩的新能源行业为例，锂电池、风电行业的产成品价格已经从24年下半年开始趋于稳定并 回升，光伏行业反内卷25年下半年刚开始推进。国内地产、基建领域的需求低迷预期已经形成，加上全 球贸易环境的不确定性，国内制造业投资转向海外的趋势还会继续，国内各行业的产能扩张预计都将较 为审慎。展望26年，PPI、CPI有希望逐步由负转正、走出通缩。 资产通缩的压力依然不小，万科债券违约事件标志着房地产行业"出清"进入最后阶段，Q3以来一二线 城市房价下跌速度加快，居民资产缩水的压力很大。房地产资产持续缩水的影响，一是继续给消费增长 带来压力，可能需要26年的宏观政策发挥稳定作用；二是人民币资产类别中，可投资的范畴，未来会相 对集中到权益类资产，相较普遍弱投资属性的房地产、低利率的债券相比，优质的上市公司将是更稀缺 的人民币资产。 加快自主科技创新、抓住AI科技革命机遇，将是中国经济的重要突破口。美国、中国在AI科技革命的 竞争已经到白热化 ...