Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].

以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者温世君 棱镜 . 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 关键的支撑来自几家数万亿市值的科技股：不到三年时间，微软、苹果股价翻番，总市值双双攀升至 4万亿美元上下；谷歌（ALPHABET-A）涨幅超200%，总市值站上3.5万亿美元大关…… 作为本轮 美股牛市的核心旗手，英伟达的涨幅一度突破1300%，不仅成为三年13倍的超级牛股，更创下历史 纪录，成为首家总市值突破5万亿美元的公司——创始人黄仁勋也顺理成章地登上全球华人首富的宝 座。 但情况似乎在悄然发生变化：无论是黄仁勋，还是曾经的全球首富比尔 ·盖茨，都在减持自家股票。 而借着这轮AI牛市大翻身，重夺日本首富的孙正义，却清仓了全部英伟达股票。这是为何？ 特别是在11月14日美国证监会要求的"报表13F"截止日期之后，一批曾创造投资奇迹的"股神"们的 减持清单也随之曝光。巴菲特退休前最后一次公开的调仓，卖了什么？长居美国加州的职业投资 人"段菲特"段永平——曾创办小霸王与步步高，也是孵化出OPPO/vivo、小天才等一众步步高系企业 的幕后大佬——最新的操作又是什么？ 成功的投资正如穿过战时的雷区，即便万分警惕，也可能遇 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in the U.S. stock market, particularly driven by the AI revolution, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high of 48,431.57 points, up 46% since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq index doubling with a 131.25% increase [4]. - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia have seen significant stock price increases, with Nvidia's stock price soaring over 1300%, making it the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion [4][20]. - Notably, several prominent investors, including Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang and Bill Gates, have been reducing their stakes in their respective companies, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high of 48,431.57 points, marking a 46% increase since the start of 2023 [4]. - The Nasdaq index hit a record high of 24,019.99 points, reflecting a 131.25% increase since the beginning of the year [4]. - Major tech stocks, including Microsoft and Apple, have seen their market capitalizations rise to around $4 trillion each, while Alphabet's market cap has surpassed $3.5 trillion [4]. Group 2: Investor Actions - Jensen Huang has sold a total of 8.297 million shares of Nvidia, reducing his holdings to below 70 million shares, with the sold shares valued at approximately $15.48 billion [16]. - Bill Gates' foundation sold 17 million shares of Microsoft, reducing its stake by 65%, with Microsoft now representing only 13.01% of the foundation's portfolio [19]. - Notable investors like段永平 have also reduced their positions in Nvidia by 38.04%, while Masayoshi Son has completely exited his Nvidia holdings [22][24]. Group 3: Company Financials - Nvidia reported a revenue of $130.5 billion for the fiscal year ending January 26, 2025, with a growth rate of 114% and a gross margin of 75% [14]. - For the first two quarters of the fiscal year 2026, Nvidia's quarterly revenues were $44.1 billion and $46.7 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 69% and 56%, respectively [14]. - In comparison, Apple's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 was $102.466 billion, with a growth rate of 7.94%, while Alphabet's revenue for the third fiscal quarter was $102.346 billion, growing at 16% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings report from NVIDIA has temporarily alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble, showcasing strong financial performance while also revealing some underlying risk signals [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 of FY2026 (ending October 26, 2025), NVIDIA reported a revenue increase of 62.5% year-over-year and a net profit growth of 65%, with data center revenue surpassing $50 billion for the first time [2]. - NVIDIA's guidance for the next quarter anticipates total revenue of $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.7 billion, and does not include revenue from data centers in China [3]. Demand and Inventory Concerns - Despite strong earnings, NVIDIA's accounts receivable have been rising, reaching $33.391 billion in Q3, with 65% coming from four major clients [4][5]. - Inventory levels have also increased to $19.784 billion, with days inventory outstanding (DIO) rising to 117.5 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years [4]. Customer Concentration Risks - NVIDIA's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major clients, with four direct customers contributing 61% of total revenue, up from 56% in the previous quarter [5][6]. - This high customer concentration poses risks to revenue stability if these clients alter their capital expenditure plans [6]. Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - Analysts have mixed views, with some maintaining bullish ratings on NVIDIA, citing strong AI demand and growth potential for cloud service providers [7]. - Conversely, notable investors like Peter Thiel and Bridgewater Associates have significantly reduced their holdings in NVIDIA, indicating caution regarding its high valuation and associated risks [8]. Broader AI Market Context - The AI sector is experiencing both excitement and skepticism, with discussions around potential bubbles and the long-term impacts of AI on various industries [8]. - Experts suggest that while there may be short-term speculative bubbles, the transformative potential of AI should not be underestimated [8].

21 星期五 离开亚马逊 CEO 四年后，贝佐斯重返战场，携手创立了专注于制造业和工程领域的人工智能创业公司——普罗米修斯计划（Project Prometheus），并亲 自担任联合 CEO。 编辑-楓華 在最新一轮技术革命的浪潮中，真正重要的不再是风口浪尖上的弄潮儿，而是掌控底层基础设施的大佬。从马斯克到贝佐斯，这些改变时代走向的科技富 豪们，正以惊人相似的方式重塑他们的商业版图——而他们共同押注的五大关键赛道，也正在成为资本市场新的「必争之地」。 表面上，他们创造的是五花八门的产品：火箭、电动车、机器人、媒体平台。但实质上，他们正在做同一件事——打造一个由AI驱动的跨行业操作系 统，掌控未来的算力、电力、数据和物流网络。 换句话说，AI革命的核心不再是谁训练出了最聪明的模型，而是谁掌握了整个经济赖以运转的底层系统。 2025年11月 信息来源：网络 马斯克几年前就看得清清楚楚：AI 的价值绝不止于聊天机器人，而在于把它嵌入整个实体工业体系。从特斯拉的自动驾驶，到 SpaceX 的火箭调度，再到 星链的网络运行，AI 已成为他扩张帝国的底层逻辑。 xAI 的出现并不是为了和 ChatGPT 打嘴仗，而是为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings report from Nvidia has temporarily alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble, showcasing strong financial performance while also revealing some underlying risks [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ending October 26, 2025), Nvidia reported a revenue increase of 62.5% year-over-year, with net profit rising by 65% [3]. - The data center business achieved a quarterly revenue exceeding $50 billion for the first time [3]. - Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter anticipates total revenue of $65 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $61.7 billion [4]. Demand Signals - Nvidia's Blackwell series chips are in high demand, and cloud GPUs are sold out, addressing market concerns about peak AI demand [3]. - However, Nvidia's accounts receivable have been rising, reaching $33.391 billion in the third quarter, with 65% coming from four major clients [5]. - Inventory levels have also increased to $19.784 billion, with inventory turnover days rising to 117.5 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years [6]. Customer Concentration Risks - Nvidia's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major clients, with four direct customers contributing 61% of total revenue, up from 56% in the previous quarter [6][7]. - This high customer concentration poses risks to revenue stability if these clients alter their capital expenditure plans [7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia, with firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS reiterating buy ratings and optimistic revenue forecasts [8]. - Conversely, notable investors like Peter Thiel and Bridgewater Associates have significantly reduced their holdings in Nvidia, indicating caution regarding its high valuation [9].

11月20日，以"智联欧亚、质创未来"为主题的2025中欧企业家青岛论坛在青岛海天大酒店成功举办，吸 引了国内外400余位企业家及专家学者参会。 青岛市政府有关部门、市直有关单位负责同志，各区（市）政府、西海岸新区管委、有关功能区负责同 志、国资监管机构负责同志，部分央企、国企、外企、民企代表参加了本次论坛。 （大众新闻·风口财经记者 娄花） 编辑：刘建 本届论坛，青岛市商务局、中国-上海合作组织地方经贸合作示范区管理委员会、青岛市市南区进行了 招商推介。微软、西门子、普华永道、恒松资本、松延动力、海信集团等中外企业围绕"AI革命下的国 家战略与产业投资"等热点话题开展对话。 本次论坛还设置了两个主题分论坛，青啤集团、澳柯玛集团、特来电公司等青岛优秀国企民企，与中国 中检、思科、微软、德乐、诺基亚等央企外企代表分别以"社会责任勇担当，ESG建设促发展"和"安全 筑基、AI领航，助力青岛企业出海"主题进行经验交流，共同寻求中欧经贸交流合作新机遇、新方向。 中欧企业家青岛论坛是经山东省政府批准，由青岛市人民政府和中外企业家联合会联合主办的国际会 议。自2019年落户青岛以来，论坛已连续七年成功举办，吸引了来自十几 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence between the U.S. economy and employment since the third quarter, with economic recovery contrasting sharply with a rapid cooling in the job market. This situation has prompted the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, with future rate paths heavily dependent on the evolving relationship between economic performance and employment trends [2][3][4]. Economic Recovery Factors - The economic recovery is attributed to two main factors: the decline of negative narratives surrounding "tight fiscal" policies and "high tariffs," and the positive impact of the AI wave and a bull market in U.S. tech stocks, which have driven capital expenditure expansion in the corporate sector and wealth effects in the household sector [3][9]. - The fiscal expansion is highlighted by the introduction of the "Big and Beautiful Act," which has led to a significant increase in tax cuts, contributing to a rise in the fiscal deficit to $440 billion in the third quarter, a substantial increase from the previous quarter [9][12]. - The high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have resulted in a notable increase in tariff revenue, estimated at around $30 billion per month, which has helped alleviate fiscal pressure despite its limited impact on inflation [12][19]. Employment Market Dynamics - The cooling of the job market is driven by both demand and supply factors. High interest rates have suppressed traditional industries, while tariffs have impacted corporate profits. Additionally, the AI technology has shown a contractionary effect on employment in the tech sector, leading to a continuous decline in hiring demand [3][29]. - From March to July, approximately 1.4 million immigrant workers exited the labor market, contributing to a simultaneous contraction in both demand and supply, resulting in a significant drop in new job additions while the unemployment rate remained stable [29][30]. - The article notes that the current employment growth is primarily affected by industries sensitive to interest rates, tariffs, and technology, with the tech sector exemplifying a "strong growth, weak employment" scenario [35][38]. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding future interest rate paths, with hawks focusing on the "strong economy" and doves emphasizing "weak employment." The current inflation rate is fluctuating between 2-3%, providing narrative space for both sides [4][43]. - Political factors and financial stability are identified as key variables influencing future Federal Reserve decisions. The upcoming changes in leadership within the Federal Reserve may enhance the influence of the Trump administration, potentially leading to a more dovish policy stance [4][55]. - The article predicts that by the end of 2026, the policy interest rate may drop to around 3%, corresponding to 3-4 rate cuts of 25 basis points each [4][56]. Market Implications - The article anticipates a continued bull steepening trend in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to decline from 4.3% to around 4.0% by 2026, while the yield curve will maintain its steepening characteristic [4][61]. - The U.S. dollar is projected to experience a phase of initial weakness followed by a potential recovery, with an overall oscillating trend expected, as the dollar index is forecasted to decline from 101 in 2025 to 99 by 2026 [4][69].

11月19日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办， 申万宏源研究海外经济首席分析师陈达 飞，发表刚性"泡沫"——申万宏源2026年海外经济宏观展望，他认为，长期而言，AI革命的演化或仍处 于上半场，泡沫之后可能才是AI产业资本的"黄金时代"。 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经 济周期"弱现实"的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息 潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱；权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预 期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫"破裂的风险或趋于上行。 专题：申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年，AI资本开支成为美国经济的"新支柱"，但代表性企业的现金流压力和债务融资需求的约束也开 始显性化，美国AI高资本开支模式的可持续性值得关注。短期而言，宏微观条件或暂不构成AI"泡沫"的 逆风，但需要为金融资本的"狂热"和资产价格的"泡沫"建立完备的"监测清单"。展望未来 ...

公司本次港股上市募资金额约36.28亿港元，据公司披露，约50%款项将用于韩国生产基地建设；约15% 款项将用于开阳磷矿开采开支；其余款项将用于公司新能源电池材料研发和数字化推进。 对于未来发展，中伟新材在招股书中指出，技术和研发是公司业务的核心，公司将继续以研发和技术进 步为基础，推动业务增长，致力于技术卓越，通过快速迭代、增强性能和提高成本效率不断改进公司的 产品。 中伟新材成功登陆港交所，实现"A+H"上市，不仅为公司打开融资渠道，借助国际资本力量强化全球一 体化布局，进一步提升产品竞争力；更是体现了公司积极参与国际资本市场竞争、展现核心价值的决 心，为国际投资者布局新能源优质资产提供新通路。 11月17日，中伟新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"中伟新材"或"公司"，股票代码02579.HK）在香港联合 交易所主板挂牌上市，成为继宁德时代后新能源行业第二家"A+H"企业。 中伟新材成立于2014年，专注于新能源材料前沿技术研发和产业生态建设，是全球知名的新能源材料企 业，主要从事以正极活性材料前驱体（pCAM）为核心的新能源电池材料的研发、生产与销售。截至 2024年，公司镍系和钴系pCAM市场份额分别为2 ...