"巨无霸"肯定会在高科技领域、AI相关领域里产生。 对于宏观经济以及大类资产，一个大判断，现在是"高震荡、低增长"时代。 当然，结构性的机会还是存在。比如现在的AI革命，也就是第四次工业革命，使得未来诸多领域商业 模式将发生变化，一些企业能够像当年的互联网一样拔地而起，成为全球"巨无霸"。 这方面美国市场已经充分体现，美国股指表现都很强劲。但这里面有很大的迷惑性，大部分股票没什么 机会，少部分股票出现比较大的涨幅。 这也代表我们这个时代的特征，我把它称之为"K形分化"，就是往上的是少数，往下是大多数。 2010年以来，对美国标普500指数做出贡献的是12.5%的公司，这是一种分化。 再一个，美国市场本来就是优胜劣汰的。从美国股市200多年历史来看，80%的公司消失了、退市了或 者被并购了，20%的公司存活到现在。但是这20%的公司里面，也就12%左右的公司在涨，所以就是在 不断地优胜劣汰，不断迭代，不断被取代，强者恒强。 四次工业革命都对经济带来了巨大的推动，经济体量大幅度上升。人工智能这样一种工业革命，是一个 长期的过程，可能需要几十年才能取得明显的成效。目前对经济起不到"速效救心丸"的作用。 从股息率来讲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology anticipates that DRAM will contribute more to revenue growth than NAND in the upcoming quarter, with a projected gross margin increase of 580 basis points due to favorable product mix, strong pricing, and effective cost control [1][5] Group 1: Market Outlook - The HBM market is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with growth rates outpacing the overall DRAM market, particularly in 2026 [1][3] - The demand for HBM products is driven by increasing performance requirements, particularly in data centers, traditional servers, PCs, smartphones, and automotive markets [2][7][9] - The company is well-prepared for the HBM4 product launch, which is set to begin shipping in Q2 2026, with plans to ramp up production based on customer demand [1][3][15] Group 2: Financial Projections - Micron forecasts a revenue increase of $1.2 billion for the next quarter, primarily driven by DRAM, with expectations for gross margin improvement [1][5] - The company anticipates that the gross margin will continue to improve quarter-over-quarter, supported by tight DRAM supply and a favorable pricing environment [5][11] - Net capital expenditures for FY2026 are projected to be around $18 billion, primarily allocated to DRAM-related investments [10] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Micron's HBM4 products are expected to lead the industry in performance and energy efficiency, leveraging proprietary technology and advanced CMOS logic chips [12][15] - The company has secured pricing agreements for the majority of HBM3E supply for 2026, indicating a strong market position despite potential pricing pressures from key customers [4][14] - Micron's ability to flexibly manage the supply of HBM and non-HBM products is supported by shared manufacturing processes and sufficient backend testing capacity [14]

| 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 基金成立日 | 复权单位净值增 | 基金经理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 长率(%) | | | 001412.OF | 德邦鑫星价值A | 2015/6/19 | 280.31 | 雷涛,陆阳 | | 018993.OF | 中欧数字经济A | 2023/9/12 | 266.27 | 海外开 | | 016303.OF | 中信建投北交所精选两年定开A | 2022/8/16 | 263.38 | 冷文鹏 | | 016370.OF | 信澳业绩驱动A | 2022/8/25 | 256.89 | 刘小明 | | 018124.OF | 永赢先进制造智选A | 2023/5/4 | 253.12 | 张路 | | 018956.OF | 中航机遇领航A | 2023/8/10 | 251.60 | 韩浩 | | 014283.OF | 华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开 2021/11/23 | | 249.98 | 顾鑫峰 | | 016530.OF | 鹏华碳中和主题A | 2023/5/5 | 236.24 | ...

Group 1 - The global economy is currently in a "high volatility, low growth" phase, with structural opportunities still present, particularly driven by the AI revolution [9][10][31] - The U.S. stock market is experiencing "K-shaped differentiation," where a small number of stocks are driving index gains while the majority are underperforming [12][20] - From 2010 to the present, only 12.5% of companies have contributed to the S&P 500 index, indicating significant market concentration [12][21] Group 2 - Despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, these will not address current inflation, weak demand, or high valuation levels in the U.S. stock market [2][21] - The median PE and PB ratios in the U.S. are at historical highs, suggesting a bubble in the market [21] Group 3 - The A-share market has valuation advantages, with the CSI 300 index's PE ratio around 14, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 29 and Nasdaq's 41 [23] - However, corporate earnings growth in China remains a concern, with a reported average growth of only 2.5% in the first half of the year, below the GDP growth of 5.3% [25][26] Group 4 - Gold is viewed positively, with a recommendation of 20% allocation in asset allocation strategies, reflecting a long-term bullish outlook [28][29] - Commodities related to AI and new energy, such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, are expected to continue rising [30] Group 5 - The technology sector is anticipated to undergo a reshuffling, leading to the emergence of new industry "giants" post-restructuring [4][33] - Long-term optimism remains for technology and AI sectors, as well as for innovative pharmaceuticals related to aging populations [34]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道9月21日，由中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院、中国人民大学 经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司联合主办的"中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）"季度论坛在京举 行。 长江证券首席经济学家伍戈在论坛上重点分享了对当前"反内卷"的看法，以及为何当前经济基本面没有 特别大的波动，但是资本市场风险偏好显著抬升的看法。 7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议明确提出，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引 导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 伍戈表示，就资本市场而言，很多行业是非常欢迎"反内卷"措施的。因为客观上讲，通过"反内卷"，对 部分行业和企业是有积极帮助的。当前，"反内卷"的措施以供给端为主，通过对供给端的约束，通过推 动落后产能的退出，来推动相关行业价格的回升，进而带动相关企业营收的回升。这样的供给约束，对 于上市企业或者上市龙头企业而言，总体是有利的，因为有些中小企业可能在这个过程中被市场淘汰。 这也是7月1日之后，中国资本市场出现迅速上升，这里面"反内卷"是很重要的一环。 "只靠供给端的约束，确实能一定程度上带动价格回升。但是（从国际经验来看），不能抬升广谱 ...

Group 1: Global Fiscal Dominance - The global economy is entering a new era of fiscal dominance, driven by structural imbalances and the need for fiscal policy to address various societal demands[1] - Countries like France, the UK, and Japan are facing political challenges to fiscal tightening, leading to a necessary shift towards fiscal expansion[1] - In China, fiscal measures are crucial to address internal supply-demand issues, especially given the diminishing effectiveness of monetary policy[1] Group 2: Strategic Significance of Fiscal Expansion - Fiscal expansion is increasingly seen as strategically important in the context of global order reconstruction, including areas like AI, trade restructuring, and national defense[2] - A potential "fiscal dominance + monetary cooperation" model may emerge, where government fiscal deficits significantly increase, compelling central banks to adapt their policies accordingly[2] Group 3: Regional Fiscal Trends - In the US, the "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase federal deficits by $4.1 trillion, with a deficit rate expected to be around 7% next year[3] - European countries are expected to see marginal fiscal loosening, particularly in defense spending, with Germany leading the way with a projected increase in defense spending of approximately €5.5 billion[5] - China's fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a broad deficit rate likely to stay at high levels, supported by various policy measures aimed at boosting demand[8] Group 4: Implications for Global Economy and Markets - The combination of fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation is expected to support global economic growth, with a potential recovery in the global manufacturing cycle[12] - Increased fiscal spending is likely to focus on defense, infrastructure, and supply chain security, which may create cyclical opportunities in physical assets and commodities[12] - The fiscal expansion and monetary cooperation are anticipated to positively influence liquidity and profitability in global markets, particularly benefiting sectors sensitive to interest rates[13]

After President Donald Trump shocked global markets with his aggressive tariffs earlier this year, investors turned away from the U.S. and went elsewhere—but the scales are tilting back again. U.S. stocks have made furious rebounds, setting fresh record highs and eroding the outperformance that European markets have enjoyed for much of this year. The S&P 500 is now up 13% year to date and the Nasdaq is up 17%. As recently as late June, when the broad market index had retaken its prior all-time high, bo ...

每周工作三天？ 刚刚，Fortune的一篇报道，把这个话题点着了，引发网友热议。 Zoom CEO袁征预测：AI聊天机器人和智能体，将带来3-4天工作制。 他的观点，与比尔·盖茨、NVIDIA CEO黄仁勋、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙等大佬的看法也是一致的。 袁征认为，在这个过程中，AI会把很多「低价值/初级」工作自动化。 这意味着，一些岗位将被取代，有些人甚至可能整周都「空闲」。 因此，也有网友直接回怼： 他说的「三天」，意思是「你被裁了」！这代表的是一种「AI=裁员」的抗拒态度。 不久前，黄仁勋在Fox Business的一次访谈中，也谈到了他对「四天工作制」的看法。 他认为世界正「处在AI革命的开端」，各行业对AI的快速采用，很可能会推动「四天工作制」的转变，但他同时也提到，这并不意味着生活就会慢下 来： 「我得承认，我们的未来会比现在更忙。」 白领岗位「大灭绝」，还是「黄金时代」的开启？ AI将如何改变人类的工作方式？ 大佬们对此看法不一。 比如，Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei，曾经预测AI会接管美国一半白领工作，这意味着白领岗位将出现「大灭绝」。 但反对者认为，AI在消灭许多工作 ...

Core Insights - The equity market has shown significant improvement in the second half of the year, leading to a dilemma for fund managers regarding timing for investments [1] - There is a contrast between investors eager for strong fund performance and fund managers who are cautious due to risk management and valuation considerations [1][4] - New funds are beginning to establish positions, with some fund managers actively investing while others maintain a low exposure strategy [2][3] Fund Manager Strategies - Some newly established funds, like Guotai's quality core mixed fund, have already begun to build positions shortly after their inception, indicating a proactive approach [2] - Fund managers are divided in their strategies, with some opting for "right-side trading" to capitalize on market sentiment, while others prefer "left-side trading" to ensure a higher safety margin [6][8] - The cautious approach of some fund managers is influenced by the need to balance client expectations for quick profits against the risks of market valuation and potential corrections [4][5] Market Dynamics - The market has experienced a notable increase in investor enthusiasm, driven by factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and ongoing domestic policy support [7] - Despite the overall upward trend, there are concerns about potential market adjustments due to accumulated profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment presents opportunities for both aggressive and defensive investment strategies, depending on individual risk tolerance [8][9] Future Outlook - The market is currently positioned within historical average ranges, with stocks still showing high attractiveness for allocation [8] - Positive changes in corporate governance and asset quality are expected to gradually reflect in valuation systems, supporting a favorable long-term outlook [8] - Investment strategies should consider a balanced approach, focusing on core holdings while exploring growth sectors, particularly in technology and new energy [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the contrasting strategies of fund managers in the current market environment, where some are actively building positions while others remain cautious due to valuation concerns and market volatility [1][3][4] - The recent recovery in the A-share market has led to increased investor anxiety and expectations, with fund managers caught between the desire for returns and the need for risk control [1][3] - New funds have begun to establish positions, with examples such as the Guotai Quality Core Mixed Fund and the Jianxin Medical Innovation Stock Fund showing early gains shortly after their establishment [1][2] Group 2 - Fund managers are facing pressure from clients who expect quick profits, while they themselves are wary of market valuations and potential corrections, creating a tension between speed and safety in investment decisions [3][4] - Different fund managers exhibit varied attitudes towards building positions based on their investment strategies and market outlook, with some opting to slow down their pace to avoid buying at high levels [4][5] - The market's upward trend, influenced by factors such as interest rate expectations and policy support, has led to a surge in investor enthusiasm, but also raises concerns about potential adjustments and volatility [6][7] Group 3 - Fund managers who choose to enter the market are often guided by a "right-side trading" mindset, believing that the market sentiment has reversed and that the trend is clear, while those who remain cautious prefer a "left-side trading" approach, seeking higher safety margins [5][6] - The overall market is perceived to be in a historical average range, with equities still showing high allocation attractiveness, supported by improving corporate governance and asset quality [6][7] - Investment strategies suggested include a balanced approach of "core + satellite" allocations, focusing on diversified funds that can capture growth in emerging industries while managing risks [7]