Group 1 - China has approved a certain quantity of rare earth product export applications, indicating a shift in policy after previously imposing export restrictions [1][3] - The export restrictions on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements have significant implications for various industries, including automotive, semiconductors, and military hardware [1][3] - The slow progress in issuing export licenses has led to a sharp decline in global rare earth supply, affecting multiple sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government emphasizes that the export control of rare earths is a common international practice aimed at safeguarding national security and interests [3][4] - The recent approval of some export applications is seen as a strategic move to balance pressure from the U.S. while maintaining China's dominant position in the rare earth market [3][4] - The U.S. military could face significant production challenges if China were to completely cut off rare earth exports, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials [3][4] Group 3 - Trump's recent welcoming of Chinese students to the U.S. marks a significant shift from previous policies that were more restrictive, reflecting a potential change in U.S.-China relations [6][7] - The U.S. economy may benefit from the presence of Chinese students, who contribute to consumption and talent in various fields, despite concerns over technology transfer [6][7] - The fluctuating U.S. policy on Chinese students indicates a complex interplay between competition and cooperation in the context of U.S.-China economic relations [6][7] Group 4 - The long-term outlook suggests that both countries will continue to experience a mix of cooperation and competition across economic, technological, and educational domains [9] - China is encouraged to enhance resource management and improve domestic education quality to attract talent, while also maintaining a strategic stance in trade negotiations [9] - The evolving U.S.-China relationship will have significant implications for the global political and economic landscape, necessitating ongoing dialogue and cooperation [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recommend shorting zinc as the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the "rush to export" and the tariff implementation, and the supply from the mining end is increasing in the second quarter. There is a possibility that the weak demand will be transmitted upstream, exacerbating the surplus of zinc and pushing the Shanghai zinc price below 21,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Short copper above 79,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at this price, as there is strong resistance at the previous downward gap and the consumption is weakening [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The US premium accelerates the outflow of LME copper inventory, raising the spot premium. The market is trading on the expectation of the US raising metal tariffs. The Sino - US manufacturing PMI is mostly in the contraction range, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June. The market is waiting for the US inflation data [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: The import ore TC is below $40 and may not decline further. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may stabilize at 1,200 yuan due to weakening consumption. The domestic refined copper output is expected to increase. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed, and the social inventory is oscillating at 149,500 tons. The domestic consumption is weakening, and the refinery's export is expected to increase [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Peru's copper output is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year. The KK copper mine in Congo - Kinshasa may resume production at the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the LME visible inventory and the US copper price [1]. - **Trend**: Short - position holders should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss above 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased after the profit repair, with the operating capacity increasing by 1.35 million tons to 90.65 million tons last week. The inventory has decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.133 million tons. The spot market has few transactions, and the ex - factory price in the northwest has dropped to 3,200 yuan. The alumina market has an over - supply situation. Consider shorting on rallies in the futures market. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, and the downside of alumina is limited [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is around 4.3 million tons, with no expected reduction in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of related enterprises has increased by 17 percentage points to 60.9%. The demand for aluminum plates and strips has weakened, and the operating rate of some enterprises has decreased. The aluminum cable sector's enthusiasm for procurement and production has declined. The operating rate of the aluminum profile sector is divided, with the construction and photovoltaic sectors weak, while the 3C and power sectors have some support [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 42,000 tons to 477,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods has increased by 2,000 tons to 180,000 tons. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The spot premium in East China has narrowed by 40 yuan to 70 yuan, the premium in Central China has narrowed by 50 yuan to 10 yuan, and the discount in South China has widened by 20 yuan to 60 yuan. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods has slightly decreased to below 300 yuan [1]. - **Trend**: The market risk preference is improving, but the center of the Shanghai aluminum price has slightly declined. The aluminum market is in a de - stocking phase, but the demand may face challenges. The Shanghai aluminum price faces resistance at 20,300 yuan. Consider short - selling on rallies [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The Shanghai zinc price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and the technical pattern is at the end of a triangle. The zinc spot import window is closed [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The overseas zinc ore output is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain high. The smelter's raw material inventory is at a high level of 27.72 days. The CZSPT group's import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for the third quarter is in the range of $80 - 100 per dry ton. The smelters are resuming production after maintenance, and the refined zinc output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to over 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased by 4,300 tons to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased to 137,000 tons, with a deep discount of $35.6 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months, indicating weak overseas demand. The import window may open briefly in June if the US dollar index weakens [1]. - **Consumption**: The "rush to export" is ending, and the consumption expectation is under pressure. The domestic special bonds are being issued faster than expected, but the infrastructure projects' physical demand will be realized after the rainy season. The photovoltaic installation peak has ended, and the "trade - in" policy has over - drawn the demand. Both domestic and overseas demand are under pressure in June [1]. - **Trend**: In June, the supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling with increasing positions. Hold short positions established at previous high levels [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The lead price has been in a narrow - range fluctuation due to insufficient demand and the inverted refined - scrap price [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The SMM lead social inventory has increased to 53,400 tons, and the SMM 1 lead average price has a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 236,300 tons, with a discount of $26.98 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months. Some recycled lead smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections and losses. The primary lead smelters' production increase space is limited due to raw material shortages. The supply of waste batteries is in short supply, and the import loss of lead ingots is still over 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' operating rate has recovered after the holiday, but the overall consumption is still weak. Lead - acid battery enterprises are willing to buy at low prices. The automobile battery brands are promoting sales, and there are rumors of price increases for electric bicycle batteries. The dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is supported by cost and pressured by consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price has rebounded, and the trading volume is light. The Shanghai stainless steel price is slightly weaker, and the closing price is at 12,705 yuan, with stable positions [1]. - **Macro and demand**: Geopolitical and tariff - related changes have led to an improvement in risk preference, reducing the short - and medium - term concerns about demand decline. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 7,100 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines has been delayed due to rain. The price of high - grade nickel ore is at 953 yuan per nickel point. The nickel ore inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons [1]. - **Conclusion and strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short as the Shanghai nickel price rebounds [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The tin price has rebounded significantly, with the LME tin price rising by more than 6.7%. The Shanghai tin weighted price has returned above 262,000 yuan after recovering the annual line. The market is focusing on the tight supply of tin concentrate in China [1]. - **Supply**: A smelter in Wa State may not be able to produce large quantities in the short term, and the inventory is low. The supply in southern Myanmar may be affected by environmental protection, and the domestic tin concentrate supply is expected to be tight for a longer time. The domestic refined tin output in May decreased by 0.3% to 14,670 tons and is expected to further decrease to 13,800 tons in June. The supply of recycled tin in Jiangxi is also restricted by raw materials [1]. - **Consumption**: The SMM tin social inventory has decreased by 216 tons to 8,856 tons. The consumption is weakening, and the orders of photovoltaic and electronic enterprises have decreased. The LME tin inventory has decreased to 2,440 tons, with a spot premium of $50 for 0 - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: The tin price is expected to continue to oscillate to balance the domestic supply and demand situation. Pay attention to the overseas consumption. Consider reducing some short positions or moving to far - month contracts when the Shanghai tin price rebounds close to the previous high of 265,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate futures price has been oscillating at a low level, and the price has been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan. The trading volume is active, and the positions have decreased by 8,000 lots to 566,000 lots [1]. - **Spot performance**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 60,300 yuan, with a weekly stable price. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 1,600 yuan. Some non - integrated lithium salt plants have increased their operating rates after hedging [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The material factories are generally producing actively. The energy - storage orders have recovered, but the power orders have slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has increased [1]. - **Supply factors**: The total market inventory has increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory has increased to 57,000 tons, and the intermediate inventory has increased by 500 tons. The Australian ore price is $607.5 [1]. - **Trend**: The downward trend of the lithium carbonate futures price has slowed down. Consider participating in short - term rebound trading [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded from a low level of 7,000 yuan/ton to above 7,400 yuan/ton due to oversold technical indicators [1]. - **Spot**: The SMM Huayangtong 553 silicon liquid average price is 8,150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [1]. - **Supply**: A large factory in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the operating rate in other regions has changed slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The SMM social inventory is 587,000 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The ordinary inventory is 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the delivery inventory is 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The price of polysilicon N - type is stable. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In the organic silicon field, the DMC inventory has decreased by nearly 30% in May, and the DMC production in June is expected to be 205,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [1]. - **Summary**: In June, the industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory pressure. The price may rebound in the short term due to technical factors, but the downward trend remains. Pay attention to the MA20 resistance level [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price's oscillation center has moved down, and the main contract is near the key level of 34,000 yuan/ton. The spot price is stable, with the large - factory dense re - feed material priced at 36,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Sichuan has entered the wet season, and leading enterprises plan to replace production capacity. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. The factory inventory is 269,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: After the 531 policy node, the distributed orders have decreased, and the centralized projects are on hold. The component enterprises have raised the price, but the transactions are insufficient. The silicon wafer price is stable, and the production in June is expected to decrease by about 2GW [1]. - **Summary**: The component demand has decreased, while the polysilicon production is increasing. The inventory pressure is slightly rising, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline [1].

白银周一（6.9）最高试探36.88元/盎司，最低触及35.81美元/盎司。收盘于36.75美元/盎司。周二（6.10）开于36.74美元/盎司，截至目前最高上探至36.82元/ 盎司，最低试探至36.29，早间白银高位横盘，现报36.5美元/盎司附近. 1， 纽约联储调查显示通胀预期下降 纽约联储在最新调查中发现，消费者预计对未来一年的通胀预期低于一个月前。 5月份的消费者预期调查显示1年通胀预期为3.2%，较一个月前下降0.4个百 分点。三年通胀预期从4月份的3.2%降至3%。五年通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。此前，特朗普政府取消了4月初实施的部分高额关税。与此同时，美国截至今 年4月的CPI进一步降至2.3%。 2， 4月美国批发库存增加 3， 受关税影响，美国就业趋势指数下降 美国谘商会5月就业趋势指数（ETI）进一步下滑，从108.00降至107.49。"与2025年初相比，5月份ETI继续放缓。但尽管普遍对关税持谨慎态度，ETI目前仍 高于2017-19年的平均水平，这表明劳动力市场总体上仍处于稳固的基础上。"谘商会注意到硬数据和软数据之间的差异继续存在，"尽管不确定性可能会打 压企业和消费者信 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 775.06 | 0.34 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8887 | -22 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 170163 | -3021 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 465984 | -25402 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 130510 | 1723 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 128510 | -5009 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 17817 | -30 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1193716 | 35390 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 768.19 | 0.79 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8863 | 83 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -6.87 | 0.45 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.17% [1] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market fell, with a total trading volume of 1.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 129 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Market Dynamics - A sudden wave of selling occurred between 13:10 and 13:30, leading to a nearly uniform sell-off across various sectors, causing major indices to drop by approximately 1% [2] - During this period of panic, the number of declining stocks approached 4,800 [4] Sector Performance - Despite the overall market decline, certain sectors such as port shipping, grain (including genetically modified crops, corn, and seed industry), and rare earths showed strong performance [4] - The market's reaction may be linked to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with reports indicating that discussions were taking place in London [6][8] Investment Sentiment - The market's fluctuations suggest that some investors may be taking profits ahead of the negotiations, particularly from sectors that had seen significant gains recently [8] - The future market direction will largely depend on the progress of the U.S.-China negotiations, with a focus on official reports for accurate information [8] Analyst Insights - Recent reports from Zhongtai International Securities indicate that the U.S.-China talks may reduce uncertainty in the short term, but significant differences remain on issues such as tariffs and technology export controls [10] - The report also highlights that the Hong Kong market is experiencing a rotation of funds among focus sectors, with no significant new capital inflow [10] - Analysts suggest that low-valuation, high-growth potential sectors may perform well in the near term, while defensive dividend sectors still hold value [10] Stock Market Trends - The upcoming unlocking of shares for "new consumption" stocks in Hong Kong may lead to increased volatility in stock prices, suggesting that investors should consider taking profits [11] - This perspective may also be relevant for related sectors in the A-share market [11]

| CTERRETT | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人业资格号:F02517 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 当前国内因素对股指的驱动力度不强,基本面表现偏弱,政策上 | | | | 六合 | 相对真空。海外变量主导股指的短期波动,近几日中美经贸现积 | | | | | 极信号,预计股指短期偏强震荡。不过,节奏上警惕中美关税信 号的反复,谨慎追涨。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期或震荡运行;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | | | 日银 | 看多 -GB | 短期料延续偏强运行,但仍需警惕冲高回落风险。 | | | 국교 | 震荡 | 中美新一轮会谈提振市场风险偏好,铜价偏强运行,但电铜供应 充足,价格上行空间受限。 | | | | | 近期国内电解铝社会库存持续下滑,电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支 | | | | 10 | 撑。但宏观情绪反复,且国内铝下游需求转淡,铝价或震荡偏弱 | | | | | ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-10 市场分析 国内核心CPI上涨。国内方面，国家统计局数据显示，5月份，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%， 降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。据海关统计，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%。 其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。海外方面，纽约联储调查数据显示，5月美国消 费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期、 五年期通胀预期也均有下降。关注即将发布的美国通胀数据。 指数走高。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走高，上证指数涨0.43%收于3399.77点，创业板指涨1.07%。行业方面， 板块指数基本收红，医药生物、农林牧渔、纺织服饰行业领涨，仅食品饮料行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额增 至1.3万亿元。海外市场，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行，带动芯片股上涨，美国三大股指收盘 涨跌 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.38 | -3.50 | DR007 | 1.51 | -1.97 | | 集 | GC001 | 1.43 | -2.00 | GC007 | 1.55 | -1.00 | | T | SHBOR 3M | 1.65 | -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | -10.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.50 | 0.45 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.66 | 0.25 | 10年期美债 | 4.51 | 11.00 | | 与 | | | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1738亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.4 ...

当地时间6月9日，中美双方代表团在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 根据会议公布的照片，可以看到，美方代表团主要成员包括 美国财政部长贝森特、 美国贸易代表格里 尔和 美国商务部长卢特尼克。 具体从美方 代表团 的职责来看： 美国财政部长贝森特负责宏观经济和金融问题 ，是特朗普 政府 关税战略执行的关键人物，本身有统筹 协调的作用， 牵头负责与多国的谈判 。 贝森特也对这些话题很感兴趣 ，作为前对冲基金经理，贝森特 一直 面临来自金融市场的压力，其 被 要求 就贸易协定做出澄清，以减少 对美国 经济 的冲击。 美国经济当前至少有四个痛点： （1）宏观经济增速放缓。美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 环比萎缩 0.3% 。 （2）通胀 出现上行的压力，美国 1 年及 5 年通胀预期甚至飙升到了 6.7% 和 4.4% 。 （3）影响制造业。关税政策并未给美国制造业带来积极影响，纽约联储制造业指数恶化至 -9.2，处于 负值区间，这反映出美国的制造业仍然处于收缩状态。 （4）贸易放缓。美国 4 月进口额出现史上最大降幅，由于不确定关税的变化，美国贸易大幅放缓。 面对这些不确定性 ， 贝森特亟需给美国传递确定性 ...

解锁【第一财经智享会员】实时解读市场动态，把握投资先机。 【第一财经智享会员专属】 【 今 日 早 盘 】 6月1 0日，三大股指开盘涨跌不一，沪指 涨0 . 0 7% ，深成指 跌0 . 0 2% ，创业板指 跌0 . 1 6% 。 算力概念股领涨，海光信息拟1 1 6 0亿元换股吸收合并中科曙光，曙光数创、中科曙光涨停，海光 信息大涨逾8%；AI应用、固态电池概念股涨幅居前。 今日嘉宾观点 国金证券投资顾问王辰认为，当前市场整体风险可控，预计短期内将维持震荡上行的趋势格 局。若要形成关键性的向上突破，可能需要依赖权重板块的启动发力来带动。然而，在权重 板块启动之前，市场大概率会延续在现有的、相对向上的通道中运行。 东方证券投资顾问应雁芳认为，在投资策略上，建议投资者重点关注* * * * * *赛道，特别是其 中前期已充分调整的细分领域，如* * * * * *、* * * * * *、* * * * * *等标的。另一方面，对于同样 具 备 长 期 前 景 的 * * * * * * 、 * * * * * * 等 板 块 ， 短 期 内 可 考 虑 进 行 适 度 止 盈 操 作 以 锁 定 部 分 ...