格隆汇1月9日｜美国总统特朗普发文称，今日公布的数据显示，美国的贸易逆差已降至自2009年以来的 最低水平，并且还在继续下降。此外，我们国家的GDP增速预计将达到5%以上——这还是在民主党致 使"政府停摆"导致至少1.5%经济损失的前提下取得的成绩。这些惊人的数字以及我们国家前所未有的成 功，都是关税政策的直接成果，它拯救了我们的经济和国家安全。我希望最高法院在做出他们有史以来 最重要的裁决之前，能了解这些具有历史意义、关乎国家存亡的成就。 ...

来源：喜娜AI 一、市场: ●1月9日收盘：板块轮动令美股走势分化，道指收高270点，纳指收跌100点 北京时间1月9日凌晨，美股周四收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.55%，纳指跌0.44%，标普500指数涨0.01%。 板块轮动使投资者从科技股撤资，信息技术板块显著下跌，英伟达、甲骨文、苹果等收跌。不过，有观 点认为科技和人工智能仍是2026年重要主题。国防类股表现出色。分析师称地缘政治或考验股市韧性， 但基本面仍较好。经济数据显示美国三季度生产率上升、劳动力成本降低。财政部长贝森特称美联储降 息不能再拖，市场预计今年降息步伐放缓，美联储今年将迎新主席，遴选工作正进行中。 [1] ●1月9日美股成交额前20：苹果连续七个交易日收跌 周四美股成交额前 20 中，英伟达收跌 2.17%，其支持的 Nscale 计划融资约 20 亿美元，还要求海外客 户为 H200 AI 芯片付全额预付款。特斯拉收高 1.02%，2025 年纯电销量冠军宝座被比亚迪取代。苹果 收跌 0.50%，连续七个交易日收跌，受美联储政策预期、科技股回调及 iPhone 销售疲软影响。美光收 跌但评级上调；谷歌 A 类股收高，市值逼近 4 万亿美元 ...

As of Thursday, the S&P 500 was trading at more than 22 times the expected earnings of its member companies over the next 12 months, FactSet data showed. This shows the index is expensive relative to history, and almost as richly valued as it was at the peak of the market in early January 2022. That marked the beginning of a nine-month-long bear market.On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department’s first jobs report of 2026, which covers the month of December. There are potential risks for in ...

A cargo ship sits in New York Harbor on Nov. 19, 2025 in New York City.The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday could rule on the legality of President Donald Trump's tariffs, a decision poised to have far-reaching impacts on not only trade policy, but also the U.S. fiscal situation.Though it's not certain that the high court will make its ruling, it has scheduled Friday as a "decision day" for handing down opinions, and there is widespread speculation that the tariff case will come up.At its core, the ruling will ...

谷物和大豆期货周四涨跌互见，交易员等待美国最高法院对特朗普政府全球关税政策的裁决，同时关注 即将发布的关键联邦农业供需报告。 针对特朗普关税政策的裁决最早可能于周五公布，美国最高法院已将该日定为意见发布日。关税政策对 美国农业造成压力，而该行业正遭受大宗商品价格低迷、投入成本高企及全球供应过剩的三重打击。 芝加哥小麦期货一度上涨0.9%，触及两周高点。大豆期货小幅下跌，玉米期货则微幅上扬。 价格： 大豆下跌0.3%，至每蒲式耳10.635美元； 价格： 芝加哥时间11：10，小麦价格上涨0.8%，至每蒲式耳5.22美元； 大豆下跌0.3%，至每蒲式耳10.635美元； 芝加哥时间11：10，小麦价格上涨0.8%，至每蒲式耳5.22美元； 玉米上涨0.2%，至每蒲式耳4.4750美元。 责任编辑：李桐 谷物和大豆期货周四涨跌互见，交易员等待美国最高法院对特朗普政府全球关税政策的裁决，同时关注 即将发布的关键联邦农业供需报告。 针对特朗普关税政策的裁决最早可能于周五公布，美国最高法院已将该日定为意见发布日。关税政策对 美国农业造成压力，而该行业正遭受大宗商品价格低迷、投入成本高企及全球供应过剩的三重打击。 芝加哥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to make a final ruling on Trump's comprehensive tariff plan, which will significantly impact the U.S. stock and bond markets. Analysts expect that if the tariffs are deemed illegal, the stock market may benefit from improved corporate profit expectations, while the bond market could face selling pressure due to renewed concerns over fiscal deficits and a more complex policy path from the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Stock Market Implications - If the Supreme Court rules to cancel the current tariffs, the impact will vary significantly across different sectors. Companies reliant on imported goods or global supply chains are expected to benefit directly, while domestic producers previously supported by trade protection may lag [2]. - The consumer goods sector, particularly in clothing, toys, and home goods, is likely to be the most clear-cut winner due to high reliance on overseas imports and elevated tariff rates, alleviating cost pressures and profit uncertainties [2]. - The industrial manufacturing and transportation sectors may also benefit from tariff refunds and potential economic stimulus effects. Large banks in the financial sector could see gains from improved overall consumer confidence, while more volatile fintech sub-sectors may experience significant fluctuations due to market sentiment changes [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Concerns - Bond traders are preparing for potential market volatility, although the expected impact is generally viewed as temporary. U.S. Treasury bonds recorded over 6% returns in 2025, marking the best annual performance since 2020, largely due to market bets on continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The cancellation of tariffs could create a revenue gap for the government, reigniting concerns over the federal budget deficit. Analysts from JPMorgan highlight the risk of renewed fiscal worries, which could push up long-term yields and steepen the yield curve [3]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the need for investors to monitor the timing and scale of potential tariff refunds to importers, as this will directly affect Treasury issuance demand. They believe that initial selling in the bond market may be short-lived, with a potential for a "fact-based buy-in" to lower yields again [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Alcoa Corporation (AA.US) has declined over 6% following a downgrade by JPMorgan to "Sell" while raising the target price from $45 to $50 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, Alcoa's stock is trading at $58.65, reflecting a drop of over 6% [1] Group 2: Analyst Rating and Price Target - JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson has downgraded Alcoa's rating to "Sell" [1] - The target price for Alcoa has been increased from $45 to $50 [1] Group 3: Market Concerns - There is uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, which may impact the company's performance [1] - The stock is considered to have a relatively high valuation [1]

Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, which could significantly impact both the stock and bond markets [1] - If the court rules against the tariffs, it is expected to boost corporate profit margins and alleviate consumer burdens, potentially driving up stock prices [2] - Conversely, the bond market may face pressure as the removal of tariffs could complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and worsen the government's budget deficit [1][2] Group 2: Sector Impacts - Companies heavily reliant on imported goods, such as Nike, Mattel, and Under Armour, are seen as potential winners if tariffs are lifted [3] - Financial firms may benefit from increased consumer confidence and spending, leading to improved performance [3] - Industrial giants like Caterpillar and Deere are expected to gain the most from tariff refunds, along with transportation stocks like UPS and FedEx, which may see a boost in economic activity [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market has already priced in some risks related to the potential court ruling, indicating that any sell-off in the bond market may be short-lived [3] - There is a concern that the cancellation of tariffs could reignite fiscal worries, leading to a rise in long-term yields and a steeper yield curve [2]

要说最近的"当红人物"，特朗普说第二，没人敢排第一，光是1月6日这一天，他就把全球的局势都搅乱 了！ 一边是对印度500%关税的威胁，一边是"说拿就拿"的千万桶石油，一场震惊全球的"大戏"就这么开始 了。 可就在特朗普得意洋洋的时候，一则"下台预告"却让他明显慌了手脚！ 这哪是惩罚，分明是要把印度的贸易通道焊死，一点余地都不留，要知道就在去年8月，美国就已经拿 这事拿捏印度，把对印商品关税提到了50%，这才过几个月，力度直接翻十倍。 这波操作直接戳中印度的要害。印度纺织业已因订单锐减损失超 117 亿元人民币，多个产区减产幅度达 到30%。海产品、珠宝等支柱出口行业的数十万岗位岌岌可危，大量中小企业已站在破产边缘。 但是特朗普的威胁没让印度立刻停手。 印度2024年从俄罗斯进口的石油占全国进口总量的36.4%，俄油的高折扣和稳定供应，早已成为印度能 源结构的重要支撑。 印度政府虽已要求企业减少从部分俄供应商采购，还每周上报采购数据，但始终没完全切断俄油通道。 毕竟能源安全直接关系印度经济运转，贸然停购只会让本国产业陷入混乱。 1月4日特朗普在"空军一号"上跟记者说话，那叫一个话里藏刀，提到印度总理莫迪，嘴上说 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant legal battle is unfolding in Washington as over 1,000 companies have filed lawsuits against President Trump's controversial tariff policy, seeking refunds for substantial taxes paid in recent months [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Developments - The wave of lawsuits began after the Supreme Court expressed skepticism about Trump's trade policies during a hearing on November 5, leading many companies to join the legal fight [1][3]. - As of January 6, at least 914 lawsuits have been filed, with most submitted after the November hearing, indicating a surge in legal actions from companies previously hesitant to act [3]. - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision will not only impact billions of dollars in cash flow for thousands of importers but will also define the legal boundaries of U.S. trade policy [2]. Group 2: Industry Participation - The coalition of companies opposing Trump's tariff policy spans a wide range of industries, including major retail and manufacturing firms such as Costco, EssilorLuxottica, and Goodyear [3][4]. - Analysis of 327 plaintiff companies shows participation from various sectors, including sports brands, beauty giants, and food companies, highlighting the extensive impact of the tariffs on global supply chains [4]. - Approximately 25% of the companies involved have foreign parent companies, underscoring the global implications of the Supreme Court's ruling [4]. Group 3: Refund Process and Legal Implications - The core issue of the legal battle revolves around whether Trump overstepped his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs [5]. - If the Supreme Court upholds lower court rulings declaring the tariffs illegal, the U.S. International Trade Court will likely handle the refund process [5][6]. - The government has assured the trade court that it will not use customs procedures to obstruct the recalculation of tariffs and payment of refunds [6]. Group 4: Financial Impact on Companies - For many companies, litigation is not just a legal strategy but a necessity for survival, as seen in the case of Ibis Cycles, which paid $800,000 in tariffs [7]. - The financial burden of tariffs has forced some businesses, like B. Stuyvesant Champagne LLC, to raise prices and reduce hiring due to unexpected costs [7]. - Historical precedents indicate that large-scale refunds are possible, as demonstrated by a 1998 Supreme Court ruling that led to a refund process involving $750 million [7].