Group 1: Trade Agreement Insights - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US's maximum tariff on China dropping from 145% to 30%[9] - Both countries have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% counter-tariffs for 90 days, marking a shift from "almost embargo" to "tradeable" levels[11] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate inflation concerns in the US and improve market sentiment, potentially boosting US stock performance[10] Group 2: Market Implications - The easing of tariffs is likely to enhance risk appetite in the market, with expectations for improved economic forecasts in Q2 2025[11] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have returned to levels prior to the "equivalent tariffs," suggesting a focus on fundamental market conditions moving forward[11] - The report suggests a structural market strategy, with a focus on dividend and technology sectors potentially providing excess returns[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative impacts of tariffs on Chinese exports may be delayed until Q3 2025, with Q2 expected to shift from a drag to a boost for exports[11] - The necessity for preemptive domestic fiscal policies has decreased due to improved economic expectations[11] - The ongoing trade conflict is anticipated to enter a prolonged "negotiation phase," indicating that optimism should be tempered[18]

2025 年 05 月 16 日 研 港股金股刷新历史新高 —金融工程月报 投资要点 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 联系人：武文静 S1050123070007 ▌最新市场观点：哑铃策略延续占优，红利低波底 仓+互联网平台、港股新消费等科技弹性 北京时间 5 月 12 日下午 3 点，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声 明》发布，中美关税谈判进度及降幅大超市场预期，恒生科 技暴涨 5.16%，中国资产全线爆发。短期风险偏好回暖下科 技受提振，5 月 14 日腾讯将披露一季报，阿里和小米也将于 5 月 15 日、5 月 27 日陆续披露财报，科技板块催化较多，港 股新消费、创新药、互联网平台为主要弹性方向。 相关研究 港股市场路标数据看，当前港股基本面指标延续回暖，但资 金面和情绪面指标仍为观望状态，南向资金净买入明显趋 缓。国际贸易软脱钩形势未变、国内政策预期放缓下，我们 依旧坚持红利底仓配置价值，港股央企红利低波配置价值凸 显。近期《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》发布，针对 基金产品风格漂移等问题，为每只基金设立清晰的业绩比较 基准，避免产品投资行为偏离名称和定位。公募基金低配板 块短期利好，包括 ...

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of high-yield assets in the low-interest-rate environment is highlighted, with some Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend indices showing yields exceeding 8% [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, achieving four consecutive weeks of gains since early April, following a period of volatility [3]. - As of May 15, 2023, the total net inflow into Hong Kong dividend-themed ETFs has exceeded 11 billion yuan, with a total scale approaching 46.2 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 40% compared to the end of 2022 [3][4]. - The Morgan Fund's Hong Kong dividend index ETF has seen a net inflow of 3.767 billion yuan this year, becoming the first ETF in this category to exceed 10 billion yuan in scale, nearly doubling since the end of last year [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend index has risen by 16.63% over the past year, significantly outperforming the China Securities Dividend Index, which fell by 2.37% [6]. - As of May 15, 2023, the latest dividend yield for the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend low volatility index is 8.31%, while the overall Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend index yields 8.08% [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "technology + dividend" strategy is suggested as a superior asset allocation approach, balancing the volatility of tech assets with the stability of dividend-paying stocks [8]. - The low valuation and high dividend yield of Hong Kong dividend assets present a dual opportunity for undervaluation recovery and high dividend returns [8]. - The composition of the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend index is primarily large-cap stocks, with a significant proportion of state-owned enterprises, indicating that its performance will largely depend on the recovery of the domestic economy [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月12日 公募 REITs 一季报全透视 韧性领航，分红突围 一季度业绩回顾：整体表现稳健，分红积极性提升。2025 年一季度，公募 REITs62 只上市产品共实现营业收入 47.79 亿元，实现净利润 8.4 亿元，剔 除新上市项目，基于可比口径，一季度营业收入同比下降 3%，环比下降 2%； 净利润同比下降 14%，环比增长 144%。其中 55 只产品实现盈利，占比为 89%。 年初至今，公募 REITs 总分红金额达到 38.29 亿元，是去年同期的 1.29 倍， 其中有 10 只 REITs 产品分红超过 1 亿元，分红金额最多的三只分别为中信 建投国家电投新能源 REIT（4.16 亿元）、中金安徽交控 REIT（3.08 亿元）、 平安宁波交投 REIT（2.60 亿元）。 年初至今，公募 REITs 在不确定性因素加大的环境中表现出较强韧性。中证 REITs 指数涨幅为 7.5%，跑赢主要股债指数，受益于政策推动，截至 2025 年 5 月 7 日，公募 REITs 总市值达到 1904 亿元，较去年年末增长 350 亿元。 从不同项目属性来看，今年产权类、 ...

政策驰援下投资信心回升 "专业买手"加仓权益类基金 实际上，随着外部扰动影响的降低，4月权益类基金投顾投资权益类资产的信心便有所上升。以主要配 置国内权益类基金的兴证全球进取派优选为例，该组合从4月10日起将"发车"金额提升至2000元，并在5 月8日发车时维持同样的"发车"建议金额。 开源证券数据也显示，4月股债混合型、股票型投顾组合均减持了"固收+"基金，增配主动权益类基金。 注重均衡配置 在外部扰动影响降低、国内政策支持的背景下，资金对权益类资产的投资热情不减。作为基金的"专业 买手"，权益类基金投顾也不断加仓权益类基金，并在近期提升了"发车"金额。 多只投顾组合提高"发车"金额 近期，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况。兴证全球投顾认为，一揽子增量政策的出台将有力推动增量资金入市，进一步提振 市场风险偏好。 5月以来，多只基金投顾组合提高了"发车"金额。比如中欧财富旗下的"中欧超级股票全明星"组合，4月 两次"发车"的建议金额为720元，但5月8日"发车"金额提高至900元。 中欧财富认为，不仅是政策支持，在4月业绩验证期结束后，5月 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 哑铃策略占优 核心观点 我们认为在短期市场弹性上升的背景下，考虑到转债市场相关的潜在风险释放压力， 继续投资者继续采取稳健与成长兼具的哑铃配置策略，具体关注内需刺激受益与新质 生产力板块。 ❑ 可转债市场观察 过去一周（5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日，下同）大部分转债指数上涨，其中可转债可选 消费行业指数，AA-及以下评级转债、可转债高价指数、小盘转债指数领涨。估 值方面，平衡性、股性估值压缩。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅上升到 120.60 元，处在 2017 年以来的 81.26%水平。 虽然近期市场整体弹性上升，但是未来一个月左右的时间我们认为市场或许更加 关注基本面，其原因主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要 落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其次，评级公司也将会 在年报披露完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继续有相关转债的评级 有被下调的可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险偏好与基本面。以上几个 方面将对市场风格带来影响，市场大概率将会倾向于基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference by Chinese financial authorities introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on monetary easing and support for the capital market, which exceeded market expectations [1][3][4]. Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut, which was beyond market expectations, along with a 0.1% reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.25% cut in structural monetary policy tool rates and personal provident fund rates [4][5]. - A total of 8 trillion yuan in funding support was announced, including 5 billion yuan for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and 3 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans [4][6]. Market Reactions - Many public fund companies believe that the policies will lead to a sustained rebound in the A-share market, particularly benefiting sectors such as technology, real estate, consumer services, precious metals, and public utilities [1][5][10]. - The A-share indices experienced consecutive gains following the announcement, indicating a potential second wave of the "9·24 market" [8]. Investment Strategies - The "barbell" strategy is favored by public fund institutions, focusing on both technology growth and defensive dividend stocks to navigate market volatility [9][10]. - The technology sector remains the most favored direction among public fund institutions, with expectations for long-term performance despite short-term uncertainties [11][12]. Economic Context - The timing of the conference coincided with a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the establishment of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, which adds to the significance of the policies announced [5][6]. - The focus on stabilizing domestic demand is seen as a necessary choice to counter external uncertainties, with an emphasis on sectors like real estate, consumer services, and technology innovation [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected rise of the emerging consumption sector, driven by the younger consumer demographic, amidst the prevailing "dumbbell strategy" in the A-share market for 2024 [1][2] - The Hengyue Fund's product, Hengyue Craftsmanship Preferred One-Year Holding Mixed Fund, has achieved a year-to-date increase of 37.29%, ranking 28th among 4,556 active equity funds, indicating strong market performance in the emerging consumption sector [1] - The structural opportunities arising from generational shifts in consumption are emphasized, with younger consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s, increasingly prioritizing spending on experiences and emotional satisfaction over basic living expenses [1] Group 2 - Emerging consumption is characterized by three distinct features: a younger consumer base, a shift in consumption preferences towards emotional and social attributes, and accelerated iteration of product categories such as smart wearables and health equipment [1] - Hengyue Fund has heavily invested in the consumption sector since the second quarter of the previous year, with 90% of the top ten holdings in the fund being emerging consumption-related stocks, covering various niches like beauty and pet economy [1] - In the context of increasing global trade uncertainties, domestic consumption is expected to become a focal point, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand becoming clearer [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for active management strategies in bond investment portfolios to capture pricing discrepancies and select investment targets for better returns [1][4]. Market Environment - The market has experienced continued volatility in the second quarter, exacerbated by new U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation, economic growth, and interest rate trends [1][2]. - The fixed income assets are gaining investor attention due to their stable returns and risk diversification benefits, although the current narrowing of spreads indicates it is not a typical "buy the dip" scenario [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has become highly uncertain due to factors such as policy adjustments, fiscal measures, de-globalization trends, and energy transitions, which are impacting both short-term and long-term perspectives [2]. - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank face challenges from economic cycle pressures and structural changes, with a slight increase in the probability of recession from 15% to 20% [3]. Investment Strategy - Selective allocation is crucial as credit spreads have widened but remain at historically low levels, necessitating careful selection of bonds [4]. - The high-yield bond market shows a divided performance, presenting both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation for investors to focus on short-duration high-yield bonds due to favorable conditions [4][5]. Asset Selection - High-quality securitized credit assets, such as AAA-rated CLOs and CMBS, are expected to continue providing attractive risk-adjusted returns, while low-rated bonds exhibit high volatility without corresponding excess return potential [5]. - In the investment-grade bond sector, strong capital positions in banks and utilities are favored, while the retail sector is viewed negatively due to pressures from AI and consumer shifts [6]. Tactical Management - Active management strategies are essential in the face of narrowing spreads, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainties, with a preference for a "barbell strategy" that combines high-quality income assets with opportunistic risk assets [6]. - Fixed income assets still hold advantages over cash and equities, particularly in scenarios of significant market corrections leading to interest rate declines [6].

Group 1 - The global fund flow report indicates that from March 27 to April 23, global equity funds saw a net inflow of $68.079 billion, with emerging market funds receiving $27.14 billion, 90% of which flowed into the Chinese market [1] - Chinese equity funds specifically gained a net inflow of $24.686 billion, significantly surpassing other emerging markets like South Korea, India, and Brazil [1] - Foreign capital is primarily focusing on strong-performing tech giants in Hong Kong, such as Tencent and Alibaba, with related ETFs experiencing substantial inflows, including the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF, which saw a year-to-date share growth of over 300% [1] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to a trend where over 30 small and medium-sized banks have reduced fixed deposit rates, with 3-year and 5-year rates dropping to 2.04% and 1.88% respectively, prompting a shift towards high-dividend assets [3] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF has achieved nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, with a dividend yield of 7.99% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.19, making it a preferred choice for "quasi-fixed income" investments [3] Group 3 - The current market conditions have led to a growing interest in the "Tech + Dividend" barbell strategy, which combines growth from technology with the stability of dividend-paying stocks [5] - The combination of the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF is expected to define investment outcomes in 2025, as foreign long-term bets align with domestic risk-averse demands [5] - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF includes major players in the internet, semiconductor, and smart vehicle sectors, with a significant portion of its weight in Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, allowing investors to benefit from AI and smart vehicle trends [5]