格隆汇9月5日｜分析师Audrey Childe表示，8月就业报告让美元空头再获提振，这份报告不仅印证了美 联储9月降息25个基点的说法，还可能引发关于美联储未来将采取更激进宽松政策的猜测。这验证了我 们关于四季度欧元对美元将受美国收益率推动而走高的观点，目前欧元对美元突破1.1750关口已近在眼 前。需要注意的是，欧元自身环境绝非乐观——尤其是法国政坛局势——但就目前而言，我们预计该货 币对的走势将主要由美国方面的因素主导。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The strength of the US dollar amidst bond market volatility indicates that investors still have confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative, believing that the US economy is better equipped to handle crises compared to other economies [1] Economic Outlook - The extent to which the Federal Reserve will yield to political pressure remains uncertain, especially as current economic conditions increasingly justify a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - A weak employment report could provide the Federal Reserve with sufficient reasons to consider interest rate cuts [1] - The clarity of the Federal Reserve's independence will only become apparent if inflation rises, necessitating tighter monetary policy [1] Inflation and Tariffs - As long as inflation remains moderate and the US economy continues to weaken, market participants may continue to "paint a rosy picture" regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The situation may become more complicated when tariffs start to have a stronger impact on US prices [1]

通胀数据延续回落态势，二季度CPI同比上涨2.1%，创2021年3月以来新低，接近央行2%-3%目标区间 下限。市场分析认为，宽松货币政策正逐步传导至实体经济。 值得关注的是，澳大利亚央行在8月货币政策会议中宣布降息25个基点至3.6%，并释放谨慎乐观信号。 该央行表示，尽管全球经济不确定性仍存，但美国关税政策范围与规模逐渐明朗，降低了极端风险发生 的可能性。 澳大利亚国内方面，私人需求呈现复苏迹象，实际家庭收入回升与金融环境改善形成支撑，但澳大利亚 央行同步将2024年经济增长预测从2.1%下调至1.7%，主要归因于生产率增长预期减弱而非贸易中断。 澳大利亚第二季度经济增速超预期，创下2023年9月以来最快增长纪录。数据显示，当季GDP同比增长 1.8%，高于调查预测的1.6%，较上一季度1.3%的增速明显提升;环比增速达0.6%，同样超出市场预期的 0.5%。 澳大利亚统计局指出，家庭消费与政府支出共同构成增长核心动力，其中政府支出贡献0.2个百分点， 但公共投资下降0.2个百分点形成部分抵消。矿业出口延续强势，但净贸易对整体经济拉动作用有限。 西太平洋银行-墨尔本研究所最新数据显示，8月消费者信心指数跃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of political pressures on the Federal Reserve, highlighting the historical context of such interventions and the current situation under Trump's administration, where he seeks a more compliant Fed to implement his economic strategies [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Federal Reserve has historically been a stabilizing force in the U.S. financial system, but its independence has often been challenged by political pressures, particularly during election years [1]. - The article references the Nixon era, where political pressure led to interest rate cuts that resulted in severe inflation, serving as a cautionary tale for current policymakers [1]. Group 2: Current Political Dynamics - Trump is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve, advocating for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy amid disappointing economic data [1]. - The article notes that Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and has targeted other board members, indicating a desire for a Fed that aligns with his economic agenda [1]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The potential appointment of Trump’s allies to the Federal Reserve Board could shift the balance towards more accommodative monetary policies, including rate cuts and increased money supply [1]. - The article suggests that if Trump succeeds in reshaping the Fed, monetary policy could become a tool for presidential campaigns, undermining the Fed's independence [1].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a bleak fiscal outlook, UK government bonds are favored by prominent investment firms due to the resilience of the UK economy and the necessity for the central bank to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Investment managers like David Roberts from Nedgroup Investments argue that the recent sell-off in UK government bonds has been overinterpreted, asserting that current policies are actually robust [1]. - Investors are anticipating a shift to accommodative monetary policy when high interest rates eventually suppress economic growth, potentially leading to substantial returns on current investments in UK bonds [4]. - James Novotny from Jupiter Asset Management describes investing in UK government bonds as a "painful trade," indicating a lack of clear signals for significant rate cuts from the Bank of England [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The yield on 30-year UK government bonds is near its highest point since 1998, with traders adjusting their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England, now estimating less than a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut this year [4]. - Daniel Loughney from Mediolanum International Funds maintains an overweight position in 10-year UK bonds, predicting that economic slowdown is only a matter of time, with potential rate cuts expected to exceed current market forecasts [8]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Demand - Andrew Wishart from Berenberg Bank refutes comparisons between the current UK economic situation and the 1970s crisis, emphasizing that the UK is not facing a currency crisis and that the Bank of England is likely to successfully manage inflation [9]. - The demand for UK government bonds remains strong, as evidenced by the 3.33 times oversubscription of a recent 10-year bond issuance and a record £142.1 billion subscription for a similar bond earlier this year [9]. - Despite the recent weak performance of UK bonds, it is considered reasonable given the previous strong economic performance [10].

Group 1 - The price of London gold is currently trading around $3386.42 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.30% [1] - The highest price reached was $3399.14 per ounce, while the lowest was $3385.28 per ounce, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The movement of gold prices is closely linked to the dynamics of the US dollar and the bond market, with the dollar showing fluctuations influenced by investor sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policies and political changes in France [2][3] Group 2 - The US two-year Treasury yield has dropped to a near four-month low of 3.625%, while the ten-year yield has decreased to 4.236%, indicating a potential economic recovery signal [2] - The demand for the $70 billion five-year Treasury auction was at an average level, reflecting investor adaptation to the current low-interest-rate environment [3] - Political instability in France is impacting the euro's performance, which may lead to a stronger dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - In the previous trading session, gold prices faced resistance at $3393 before retreating to a support level of $3373, resulting in a doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3398 and $3406, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [4] - If gold can maintain above $3406, it may target the range of $3415 to $3421, presenting opportunities for short positions if it fails to break through [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with significant implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, are seen as unprecedented attacks on the Fed's independence, potentially leading to higher inflation and decreased credibility [9][10]. - Analysts warn that if Trump successfully alters the composition of the Federal Reserve Board, it could lead to a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy, undermining the Fed's traditional data-driven approach [10][11]. Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains moderately restrictive, with officials indicating that rate cuts may be appropriate in the future, depending on economic conditions [3][4]. - The potential for Trump to influence the selection of regional Fed presidents could significantly impact monetary policy decisions, particularly if he gains a majority on the Fed Board [7][11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market has begun to show signs of distortion, with a steepening yield curve indicating rising inflation expectations and risk premiums due to perceived threats to the Fed's independence [4][11]. - Despite current market calmness, there is a growing concern that the political influence over the Fed could lead to increased volatility and higher inflation in the long term [10].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with significant implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [1][3][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook plans to file a lawsuit against President Trump following her dismissal [2][5]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that lowering interest rates may be appropriate at the right time, maintaining a moderately restrictive policy stance [2][3]. Group 2: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration is exploring ways to exert more influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, particularly regarding the selection process for regional bank presidents [3][7]. - The upcoming reauthorization of regional Fed presidents, scheduled for February, has gained heightened importance following Cook's dismissal [7][14]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could signify the end of the Fed's independence, a situation not fully recognized by financial markets, which may lead to increased inflation expectations and risk premiums [3][13][14]. - If Trump successfully appoints a more dovish candidate to the Fed, the board could shift to a majority of "dovish" votes, significantly altering the power dynamics within the Fed [14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Current market conditions reflect a distortion in the yield curve, with long-term yields rising and short-term real yields falling, indicating that the Fed's independence is under threat [14]. - The potential for a politically influenced Fed raises concerns about higher inflation and increased volatility in the financial markets [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank suggests that if Trump successfully gains control of the Federal Reserve Board with four dovish votes, it could lead to aggressive monetary easing policies and allow for unilateral actions to lower the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB), bypassing the FOMC's decisions [1][3][12] Group 1: Control of the Federal Reserve Board - Trump's administration is seeking to gain control of the Federal Reserve Board by dismissing Governor Cook, which would enable the implementation of aggressive monetary policies [3][6] - Following the resignation of Governor Kuger, Trump has garnered increasing support for dovish monetary policies within the committee [4] - If Trump appoints a candidate favoring significant rate cuts to replace Cook, the power dynamics within the Board will change dramatically, potentially leading to a majority of dovish votes [6][7] Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - The emergence of four stable dovish votes within the Board would significantly increase internal pressure for faster and larger rate cuts, even amidst high inflation data [7][12] - The Board's majority could utilize its power to unilaterally lower the IORB, which has historically been aligned with FOMC targets, thus challenging the traditional decision-making framework [9][10] - This unilateral action could lead to unprecedented dynamics in the money market, creating potential chaos and directly impacting the FOMC's traditional decision-making process [11] Group 3: Restructuring the FOMC - The majority within the Federal Reserve Board also holds the long-term power to reshape the composition of the FOMC voting members, as all 12 regional Federal Reserve Presidents require Board approval for reappointment every five years [12][13] - A Board majority seeking aggressive easing could veto the reappointment of hawkish regional Fed Presidents, gradually eliminating opposing voices and paving the way for long-term easing policies [13]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that if Trump successfully gains control of the FOMC majority, it could lead to more aggressive monetary easing policies and the ability to bypass FOMC decisions through technical means [1]. Group 1: Control of the Federal Reserve Board - The Trump administration is seeking to control the majority of the Federal Reserve Board by dismissing Governor Cook, which could provide powerful tools to enforce monetary easing policies [1][2]. - With the resignation of Governor Kuttner, Trump has gained increasing support for easing policies within the committee [1]. - The appointment of a dovish candidate to replace Kuttner is expected to add another voice advocating for easing in upcoming policy debates [1]. Group 2: Internal Pressure for Easing - The Federal Reserve Board could have four stable dovish votes, constituting a majority among the seven board seats, which would significantly increase internal pressure for faster and larger rate cuts [3]. - A board with a majority would have a stronger collective voice, potentially constraining Fed Chair Powell and other cautious members, even amid high inflation data [3]. Group 3: Bypassing FOMC Decisions - The majority on the board could directly influence the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB), which is a key tool that the board controls, allowing for unilateral actions to lower rates [4][5]. - Historically, the board has aligned IORB with FOMC targets, but this is a convention rather than a legal requirement, allowing for potential deviations [4]. Group 4: Restructuring the FOMC - The board's majority also holds the long-term power to reshape the FOMC voting member composition by approving or denying the reappointment of regional Fed presidents every five years [6][7]. - A board seeking aggressive easing could use this power to eliminate hawkish voices from the FOMC, thereby paving the way for long-term easing policies [7].