中指研究院认为，当前地方政策基本已"应出尽出",今年以来各地出台超560条楼市政策，政策调控频次 虽有所减少，但更加精准。中指研究院研究主管陶淑茹表示，短期房地产政策预计将继续聚焦推动市场 止跌回稳，如购房限制性政策、降低购房成本等方面或继续优化。市场端，临近年末房企促销力度加 大，同时核心城市优质新盘预计将有所增加，市场情绪或有所修复。 对于二手房市场，在广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉看来，考虑到挂牌量在高位，新房"好 房子"的竞争优势比较突出，对二手房市场的影响还存在。因此，预计二手住房价格环比继续承压。不 过，近期的市场迹象是，业主大尺度降价出售的意愿下降，挂牌量攀升开始缓解，售转租的比例上升， 法拍房清仓率开始攀升。另外，随着投资于人、以人为本的新型城镇化等各项政策落地实施，新市民、 年轻人在本地落地扎根的积极性上升，对低总价、区位优的二手住房需求上升，全国及重点城市二手房 交易连续两年上升，二手房同环比跌幅扩大的趋势会缓解。 乐有家研究中心的数据显示，11月深圳一二手住宅网签总量为7116套，环比上涨3.9%。深圳贝壳研究 院院长肖小平表示，11月市场成交活跃度是政策红利、城市利好与市场规律 ...

Group 1: Infrastructure REITs - The National Development and Reform Commission has released the "2025 Industry Scope List for Infrastructure REITs," expanding the range of projects eligible for REITs to include sports venues, commercial complexes, four-star hotels and above, and urban renewal projects [6][7]. - The expansion of the REITs issuance scope is expected to facilitate project applications, enhance efficiency, and stimulate market activity, particularly in urban renewal and consumption sectors [7]. Group 2: Insurance Industry - Five Chinese insurance companies made it to the 2025 Global Top 50 Property Insurance Companies list, with China Life Insurance being the only one in the top ten [8]. - The rankings of China Life, China Ping An, and China Reinsurance have declined compared to last year, prompting a need for these companies to rethink their international strategies [8]. Group 3: Urbanization and Real Estate - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of new urbanization as a vehicle for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrades, highlighting the need for urban renewal actions [9]. - The focus on addressing housing issues for the large population of rural migrants is expected to create opportunities for real estate development in the coming years [9]. Group 4: Securities Industry - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission indicated a policy shift towards enhancing capital efficiency for quality securities firms by loosening capital space and leverage restrictions [10][11]. - This policy aims to transition the industry from scale competition to value competition, addressing the low return on equity (ROE) issue [10][11]. Group 5: Insurance Risk Factor Adjustment - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has adjusted risk factors for insurance companies, reducing capital requirements for certain stock investments, which is expected to enhance capital utilization efficiency [12]. - The adjustment allows for a potential influx of capital into the market, estimated to bring in hundreds of billions [12]. Group 6: IPO Market - Moore Threads' IPO on the STAR Market achieved a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion yuan, marking the largest IPO on the STAR Market this year [13]. - This listing signifies a milestone in domestic GPU technology and reflects the capital market's support for high-tech industries [13]. Group 7: Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a consistent approach to liquidity management [14]. - This operation is part of a broader strategy to stabilize liquidity expectations and interest rates, supporting economic stability [14].

宏观研究 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 等待"两大会"召开——政策周观察第 58 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要有以下内容。短期内，关注中央政治局会议和中 央经济工作会议"两大会"召开。 1、12 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《推进党的自我革命 要做到"五个进一步到位"》。文章中，习近平总书记指出"对党的自我革命认 识要进一步到位……我们党进行自我革命，刀刃向内、激浊扬清、刮骨疗毒， 非但不会影响党的形象和威信，反而能够提高党的形象和威信；非但不会挫伤 党员干部的积极性，反而能够更广泛更充分地调动党员干部的积极性；非但不 会影响经济社会发展，反而能够为高质量发展提供坚强政治保证"，"党员干部 增强党性要进一步到位"，"权力规范运行要进一步到位"，"从严监督执纪要进 一步到位"，"落实管党治党责任要进一步到位"。 2、资本市场：1）12 月 5 日，国家金融监管总局调整保险公司相关业务风险 因子，"针对保险公司投资的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数 成分股以及科创板股票的风险因子，根据持仓时间进行了差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of "stabilizing the real estate market" as a key support for the new urbanization strategy, aiming for high-quality development in the real estate sector and integrating it with urban renewal and safety measures [1] Group 1: Stabilizing the Real Estate Market - "Stabilizing the real estate market" and the "good housing" initiative are complementary, addressing diverse housing consumption needs and enhancing market activity [2] - The "good housing" initiative aims to meet the demands of urbanization, with a focus on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence in housing consumption [2] - Local governments have implemented 556 policies in the first three quarters of the year to stabilize the market, including adjustments to purchase restrictions and support for talent [2] Group 2: Urban Renewal and New Urbanization - Urban renewal is evolving from simple renovation projects to a core task of new urbanization, enhancing market vitality and aligning with the "good housing" initiative [3] - There is a significant demand for updating over 30 billion square meters of existing housing, which can help eliminate safety hazards and improve urban functions [3] - The shift in focus from "building houses" to "creating spaces" reflects the necessity of enhancing property value and returning housing to its residential purpose [3] Group 3: Debt Resolution and Industry Transformation - The liquidity pressure on real estate companies remains a critical issue, and "stabilizing the real estate market" policies are facilitating debt resolution by activating transactions and broadening financing channels [4] - Innovative policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates, are aimed at stimulating demand and assisting companies in adjusting inventory structures [4] - The introduction of infrastructure REITs in urban renewal provides long-term low-cost financing options, supporting the debt restructuring process for real estate companies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of "stabilizing the real estate market" policies is crucial for both short-term recovery and long-term stability in the industry [5] - The real estate sector is expected to transition towards a "high-quality, low-risk, and sustainable" development model, achieving high-quality growth [5]

风险提示： 宏观经济政策风险，基建投资低于预期等。 报告导读： 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机 会。国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机会。 (1)12月5日召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。节能降碳 是推进碳达峰碳中和、加快发展方式绿色转型的重要抓手。要更高水平更高质量做好节能降碳工作，加大统筹力度，锚定总体目标，因地制宜推进，在经济发 展中促进绿色转型、在绿色转型中实现更好发展。要切实增强节能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快形 成绿色生产生活方式。(2)建筑板块关注新型电力系统建设，如风电、光伏能源施工板块，分布式光伏，抽水蓄能和新型储能，虚拟电厂，氢能产业链建设 等。 国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 (1)12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格 局"为主题进行专题学习。新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。展望"十五五" ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the importance of new urbanization as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrades, highlighting the need for urban renewal actions and high-quality real estate development [2] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission pointed out the long-term positive outlook for the economy and the capital market, while identifying issues such as the need for optimization of listed company structures and the lack of long-term funding [2] - The regulatory focus will be on supporting technological innovation, meeting diverse investor needs, and enhancing risk prevention capabilities through precise and efficient supervision [2] Group 2 - The National Financial Supervision Administration announced adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies, reducing the risk factor for certain index component stocks from 0.3 to 0.27 [3][4]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 12 月 7 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 2026 年国际金融市场或面临风高浪急的考验 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.28%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.58%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 9.49%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.57%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率持平于 1.00%；十年国债收益 率上行 1BP 至 1.85%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.02%。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。影响可能来自几个方面：一 是美联储货币政策的不确定性，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划在 2026 年 初公布下一任美联储主席人选，有" ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift from a defensive to an offensive strategy, suggesting a proactive approach to invest in high-growth sectors as market conditions improve [3][12][13] - It highlights that external and internal volatility risks have eased, with previous high-growth sectors showing signs of stabilization, and anticipates further consolidation in December [3][10] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with upward momentum, such as AI, semiconductors, new energy, non-ferrous metals, and the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board, in anticipation of a spring market rally in early 2026 [3][12][13] Group 2 - In the bond market, the report notes potential disturbances due to year-end factors, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will remain above 1.80% in the short term [3][12] - It mentions that the bond market may face limitations due to increased profit-taking by institutions and the pending implementation of new public fund fee regulations [3][12] - The report suggests maintaining a neutral duration in bond investments while waiting for favorable conditions to emerge [3][12] Group 3 - The report provides a review of the weekly market performance, indicating that A-shares have shown signs of stabilization and recovery, particularly in growth sectors [10][12] - It notes that the Hong Kong market has also experienced a recovery, influenced by improved global market sentiment [10][12] - The report emphasizes that overseas markets are generally on an upward trend, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and improved liquidity conditions [10][12]

Group 1: New Urbanization and Economic Development - The State Council emphasizes that new urbanization is a crucial vehicle for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrades, and strengthening the domestic circulation [2] - The government plans to implement urbanization strategies tailored to local conditions, focusing on optimizing the layout of people, industries, and cities [2] - There is a commitment to address issues related to the urbanization of agricultural migrants, including employment, social security, housing, and education for their children [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of infrastructure REITs to include sports venues, commercial complexes, and urban renewal projects, marking a significant breakthrough in the types of underlying assets [4] - A total of 60 billion yuan has been allocated for the fourth batch of central budget investments aimed at creating job opportunities for low-income individuals through labor-intensive projects [5] Group 3: Financial Regulations and Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to relax regulations for high-quality institutions, optimizing risk control indicators and capital space to enhance capital efficiency [5] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [6] - Insurance companies have seen a reduction in risk factors for various business lines, encouraging improved long-term investment management capabilities [7] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration have issued an action plan to enhance the integration of cultural tourism and civil aviation, aiming for improved service levels and broader coverage of travel routes by 2027 [4] Group 5: International Trade and Economic Outlook - The OECD maintains its global economic growth forecasts at 3.2% for this year and 2.9% for next year, highlighting resilience but also risks such as trade barriers and fiscal vulnerabilities [9] - The U.S. private sector saw a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a stagnation in job creation and a downward trend in wage growth [10]

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]