Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards imposing tariffs on external demand and subsidizing internal demand, marking an important beginning this year [1][7]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward movement after the New Year, given the relatively low funding enthusiasm at the end of last year and the prevailing sentiment of wanting to see market growth [1][8]. - The overall market sentiment is currently restrained, with many investors waiting for the right entry point, suggesting limited potential for significant market corrections in the absence of major unexpected risks [8]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends adopting a mindset focused on "earning performance money rather than expecting valuation money" for mid-term investments, favoring sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric power equipment, and new energy [1][10]. - There is a cautious approach towards high prosperity and high heat sectors that have seen stagnant stock prices, while new industry themes like commercial aerospace are expected to continue to evolve and warrant ongoing attention [1][10]. Performance Analysis - In 2025, the median return for actively managed public funds tracked by CITIC Securities was 28.2%, ranking third over the past decade, with a significant disparity in returns between the top and bottom deciles [2]. - The overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2025 can be divided into five phases, with notable fluctuations driven by external factors such as tariff impacts and AI application narratives [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The significant money in the structural bull market in 2025 primarily came from the correction of expected divergences and performance growth, particularly in the context of external and internal demand dynamics [4]. - The report highlights that the market's perception of external demand has shifted from optimism to caution, with geopolitical factors influencing expectations throughout the year [7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated structural adjustments in trade policies, including increased tariffs and stricter export controls, indicate a shift in China's approach to external trade, aiming to balance external and internal demand [7]. - The report emphasizes that the market may struggle to quickly price in these significant structural changes, which could serve as both a source of expected divergence and potential performance growth [7].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 过去五年，A股市场以强烈的风格切换和复杂的周期演进，完成了一次完整的压力测试。从2021年"宁组合"与"茅指数"的极致分化对决，到随后 长达三年的估值磨底与信心重构，再到2024年"9·24"后以改革预期和产业升级为内核的慢牛初现，市场不仅经历了从"β盛宴"到"α博弈"再到"新 共识"的范式转移，更对资产管理机构的生存能力与进化能力提出了系统性拷问。 在这一宏大的市场叙事中，经历多轮市场周期的老牌私募（通常指成立十年以上的私募，即2016年1月1日前成立的私募，下同）又带来了怎么 样的业绩？为更清晰了解老牌私募业绩，笔者按照公司规模分类，梳理出各规模组收益十强的私募名单，供读者参考。 0 1 100亿以上：复胜领跑！君之健、龙旗科技居前！ 截至2025年12月26日，百亿规模组中，在私募排排网上至少有3只产品符合排名规则且有近5年业绩展示的老牌私募共有19家，近5年收益均值十 强的上榜"门槛"超 *** %。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募基金不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫描图中二维码或点击文末阅读原文，查 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Rongtong Fund, particularly the Rongtong Industry Trend Fund, which achieved a net value increase of 114.61% in 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 17.02% [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The Rongtong Industry Trend Fund ranked first among standard equity funds, with a specific ranking of 1 out of 349 [1]. - The Rongtong Industry Trend Fund Zhenxuan also doubled its performance, achieving a return of 100.22% in 2025 [1]. - The fund manager, Li Jin, has a strong background in technology and has been focusing on TMT and new energy sectors since joining Rongtong Fund [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Li Jin's investment strategy is centered around identifying sectors with significant demand expansion and rapid industry growth, which he refers to as "investment with a sense of the times" [4]. - The fund's excess returns are attributed to investments in AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4]. - Li Jin began focusing the investment portfolio on artificial intelligence in March 2023, recognizing its potential as a major technological advancement [4]. Group 3: Market Insights - Li Jin observed a rapid increase in the use of collagen-containing cosmetics, leading to a deeper investigation into the new consumption sector, which is experiencing significant growth [5]. - He also identified the innovative pharmaceutical sector as being in the early stages of a new wave of growth, prompting investment in this area [6]. - The combination of AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals forms a strategic "trident" for the fund's investment approach [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, Li Jin anticipates a shift in the economic growth engine from monetary easing to credit expansion, which will support the recovery of the real economy [8]. - He expects corporate profitability to improve due to supply-side optimization and a rebalancing of supply and demand [8]. - Li Jin believes that the overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, predicting a transition from valuation-driven growth to a more balanced approach driven by fundamentals and structural reforms [8]. Group 5: Continued Focus Areas - Li Jin plans to maintain a focus on sectors with long-term growth potential, particularly in AI, which is still in a critical "infrastructure" phase [9]. - He emphasizes the importance of monitoring the demand for computing power and related technologies, which are expected to see continued growth [9]. - The strategy includes ongoing attention to opportunities in new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, aiming to identify high-quality growth leaders in these sectors [9].

Core Insights - The public fund industry has shown a significant profit effect in 2025, with notable performance from the Rongtong Industrial Trend fund, which achieved a net value increase of 114.61%, far exceeding the benchmark of 17.02% [1] - Fund manager Li Jin has been pivotal in this success, focusing on sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which he refers to as a "sense of the times" investment strategy [2][3] Fund Performance - Rongtong Industrial Trend achieved a return of 114.61% in 2025, ranking first among 349 similar standard equity funds [1] - Rongtong Industrial Trend Zhenxuan also doubled its performance with a 100.22% return in the same year [1] - Li Jin has been managing these funds since March 2023, with a strong focus on growth sectors [1][2] Investment Strategy - Li Jin emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with significant demand expansion and rapid growth, focusing on areas where market efficiency is lacking [2] - The investment strategy has been heavily centered on artificial intelligence since March 2023, despite initial market skepticism [2] - Li Jin's research has led to a tactical adjustment in Q3 2025, where he reduced exposure to new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals due to overvaluation and unmet performance expectations [3] Market Outlook - For 2026, Li Jin anticipates a shift in economic growth drivers from monetary easing to credit expansion, which will support the recovery of corporate profitability [5] - The supply-side optimization is expected to enhance corporate earnings, with a forecast of double-digit profit growth for A-shares in 2026 [5] - Chinese companies are increasingly gaining global competitiveness through proactive international expansion, contributing to sustained growth in relevant sectors [6] - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, suggesting a transition from valuation-driven to a more balanced approach of fundamental and structural reform-driven growth [6] Future Focus - Li Jin plans to continue focusing on sectors with long-term growth potential, particularly in artificial intelligence, which is still in a critical "infrastructure" phase [6] - The demand for computing power and related technologies is expected to grow exponentially, with significant capital investments from internet companies [6] - Continuous attention will be given to opportunities in new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, aiming to identify high-quality growth leaders in emerging trends [6]

万事达卡经济研究所研究报告指出，2026年中国消费将呈现出显著的强化趋势，"新消费"品类——如美 容健康、新兴生活方式以及由"粉丝经济"驱动的消费热潮有望持续扩容。特别是消费者从追求"单纯低 价"转向拥抱"精明消费"的变革趋势，正重塑中国零售业与数字渠道的生态。 德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕表示，2026年消费将继续成为中国经济增长的主引擎，预计将为 GDP贡献2.8个百分点，商品消费或将录得温和增长，服务消费亦将在政策支持下持续改善。 中新社上海1月1日电 (记者 姜煜)新年伊始，多家外资机构展望2026年中国经济发展前景时不约而同指 出：消费仍是主引擎，其在中国GDP中的占比将继续提升。 据威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言分析，2025年，中国消费的复苏得益于强有力的财政支持，一个可 喜的迹象是，消费结构正在由商品转向服务，消费者更愿意把钱花在休闲旅游、外出就餐、个人兴趣爱 好及生活方式等体验和享受型消费方面。与此同时，部分细分领域出现高端化趋势，消费者更青睐产品 的设计与品质，而非价格。这些都是在消费信心回升以及商品供给充裕背景下出现的新型消费升级形 态。 "2026年，消费在中国GDP中的占比将继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of consumer behavior in China, highlighting the coexistence of emotional and rational consumption trends, and the implications for investment opportunities in the market [5][22]. Group 1: Consumer Trends - Despite perceptions of a cooling consumer market, data shows that final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 9 percentage points from 2024 [6]. - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, surpassing the 3.5% growth expected for the entire year of 2024 [6]. - A McKinsey survey indicates that the expected share of domestic consumption in disposable income for 2025 is stable at 0.0%, a significant improvement from the previous year's expectation of -0.5% [9]. Group 2: Emotional and Rational Consumption - The article identifies two main trends in consumer behavior: emotional consumption, which focuses on personal satisfaction and identity, and rational consumption, which emphasizes quality and cost-effectiveness [13]. - A Nielsen IQ report reveals that 47% of respondents in China purchased only essential items to avoid waste, while 68% were willing to spend more on products that help relieve stress [13]. - The rise of the second-hand economy is noted, with platforms like Xianyu seeing a daily average of 7 million items listed, reflecting a growing acceptance of "recycling consumption" among young consumers [14]. Group 3: Future Consumption Landscape - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach a market size of 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029 [15]. - The article suggests that the health and wellness industry, as well as the pet economy, will benefit from shifting consumer spending towards self-investment and emotional fulfillment [20]. - The emergence of AI-driven emotional technology and virtual consumption is anticipated to create new market opportunities, as consumers increasingly seek personalized emotional experiences [21].

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies Involved - Pop Mart - Laopu Gold Core Insights and Arguments - Both Pop Mart and Laopu Gold utilize consumer-driven marketing for brand promotion, focusing on aesthetic superiority rather than cost-effectiveness to attract consumers, creating a unique "breaking the circle effect" [1][2] - For the second and third quarters of 2025, both companies expect significant profit growth to approximately 13 billion, driven by increased confidence from rising stock prices. However, recent stock price declines have raised doubts about the 30% growth forecast for 2026 [1][2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding the 30% growth forecast for 2026. While overseas markets continue to show high growth (Pop Mart over 100%, Laopu Gold 150-200% after price increases), the growth rate has declined compared to earlier in the year, raising concerns about sustainability [1][4] - The inability to predict future performance through traditional store-opening methods adds significant uncertainty to the future performance of both companies. There is intense debate between bullish and bearish perspectives regarding their business models and the decline in overseas growth [1][4] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Investor confidence is primarily influenced by stock performance and specific sales data. Sales data from January and February 2026, expected in March-April, will provide trend guidance. An increase in stock prices could also enhance market confidence, but the long-term growth potential still requires validation [5] - Pop Mart focuses on building intellectual property (IP) as its core competitive advantage, while Laopu Gold is the world's first jewelry brand primarily made of gold. Both companies have distinct characteristics and have achieved some success overseas, supported by a loyal fan base [3][5] - Investors should recognize the value of these companies and understand their development direction aligns with national policies promoting consumption. Despite short-term uncertainties, there is potential for significant growth if key data points, such as sales figures and stock trends, are monitored [7][6]

Group 1 - The article reflects on the past ten years of the "New Consumption Think Tank," emphasizing that the initial passion for the project has evolved into a deeper understanding of its significance [2][4][5] - The author highlights that surviving without debt is a significant achievement in entrepreneurship, suggesting that longevity and self-sufficiency are more important than grand ambitions [7][8][9] - The narrative critiques the glorification of entrepreneurship, arguing that the journey itself holds more value than the end results, and that true wealth comes from daily experiences [10][14][15] Group 2 - The article posits that happiness is derived from the ability to be present and engaged in daily life, rather than from material wealth [17][18] - It discusses the importance of focusing on personal growth and self-acceptance, rather than seeking external validation or societal approval [25][26][27] - The author emphasizes the need for clarity in direction after reconciling with oneself, shifting focus from acquiring to contributing [29][30] Group 3 - The article mentions health challenges faced by the author, which served as a wake-up call to appreciate the fleeting nature of time and the importance of living meaningfully [31][33][34] - It suggests that true fulfillment comes from internal alignment and the pursuit of personal passions, rather than conforming to external expectations [38][40] - The narrative concludes with a commitment to a future focused on personal values and helping others, rather than chasing conventional success [49][51]

Group 1 - A clear policy "warm wind" is blowing towards the consumption sector, with the national financial work conference emphasizing "greatly boosting consumption" as a key task for the coming year [1] - The first batch of 625 billion yuan for the 2026 consumption goods replacement fund plan has been quickly allocated, reflecting a coherent determination from central to local levels to stimulate domestic demand [1] - Recent market reactions show significant inflows into cyclical and consumer sectors, with trading heat in sectors like retail and consumer services exceeding the 80th percentile [1][2] Group 2 - Several consumer retail stocks have experienced sharp price increases, with Baida Group's stock price doubling in the past month and other companies like Shanghai Jiubai and Lihua shares also seeing substantial gains [4][5] - Despite the market heat driven by policies and funds, many public funds have shown poor performance, with few of the leading stocks being heavily held by institutions [5][6] - The divergence between market performance and institutional holdings indicates a profound shift in investment logic, with institutions reallocating from traditional consumption to sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology [6] Group 3 - The consumption sector's valuation has reached historical lows, creating a foundation for a potential recovery [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the current valuation levels in the consumption industry are attractive compared to historical and international benchmarks, with a focus on identifying companies that can adapt to changing market conditions [8][9] - The dividend yield of the main consumption index has reached 3.89%, indicating a potential for increased market attention on traditional consumption sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies [9] Group 4 - There is significant internal differentiation within the consumption sector, with some new consumption stocks showing promise while traditional sectors like liquor and white goods remain weak [10][11] - Marginal improvements in the fundamentals of the consumption sector have been observed, with certain industries like real estate-related sectors showing signs of stabilization and profit recovery [11] Group 5 - Long-term investment logic is being restructured, focusing on overseas expansion, new consumption models, and evolving consumer demands [12][13] - The "outbound strategy" is highlighted as a key growth area, with companies that can leverage their domestic competitive advantages in international markets expected to perform well [13][14] - The changing consumer landscape, driven by a new generation of middle-class consumers, is influencing consumption patterns and investment priorities [15] Group 6 - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a structural optimism regarding the consumption sector, with expectations of a return to balanced growth as the real estate cycle stabilizes [16] - Key areas of focus for future investment include overseas expansion, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming sectors, with traditional consumer sectors also expected to see growth [16][17] - The long-term value of consumption remains, but the investment approach has evolved, emphasizing the need to align with emerging trends and structural changes in the market [18]

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 私募基金管理人除了可以自主发行基金产品外，还可通过与其他持牌金融机构合作的方式提供资产管理服务。比较典型的方式就是由证券公司、 基金管理公司、期货公司及前述机构依法设立的从事私募资产管理业务的子公司以非公开的形式募集资金或者接受财产委托，设立私募资产管理 计划，或由信托公司发行信托计划，私募基金管理人则接受聘请，作为产品的投资顾问，为其提供专业的投资策略建议和研究支持。 信托方面来看，IFinD数据显示， 截至12月24日，183家证券类私募旗下有业绩显示的信托产品共1926只，今年来收益均值高达19.40% ；其中 股票策略信托产品占比最多，共1137只，今年来收益均值为21.10%。 私募管理人担任信托产品投资顾问，不仅是业务拓展的机遇，更是整体投资研究能力、市场分析能力和资产配置能力的重要体现。 为此，本文 按不同规模私募， 分别梳理出今年来业绩前十的股票策略信托产品， 供投资者参考。 (同一私募管理的相同策略，仅选取收益最高的产品参与 排名) 01 位居第2、第3的分别是： 淡水泉担任投资顾问的"平安信托-淡水泉成长三期"，今年来实现收益 ...