Core Viewpoint - The issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds in the third quarter has been announced, with a total of 11 bonds to be issued, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting market confidence and investment [1][3]. Issuance Schedule - In July, three bonds will be issued, including a 20-year bond on July 14 and a 30-year bond on the same day, both being first issuances [2] - In August, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on August 1 and a 30-year bond on August 22, with several renewals scheduled [2] - In September, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on September 10 and a 30-year bond on September 19, all with semi-annual interest payments [2] Issuance Scale - In the first half of the year, 9 ultra-long-term special government bonds were issued, totaling 555 billion yuan, which is 42.69% of the total issuance for the year, significantly higher than the 250 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The total issuance scale for the second half of the year is projected to be 745 billion yuan, with a concentration in the third quarter [2] Fiscal Policy Impact - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is set to increase to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, up by 300 billion yuan from last year, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support "two heavy" projects and 500 billion yuan for "two new" policies [3] - The proactive fiscal policy aims to stimulate market confidence, social investment, and consumption, thereby enhancing market vitality [3][4] Consumption and Investment Support - The funding support for consumption goods replacement is set at 300 billion yuan, with previous allocations exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in sales for related products this year [4] - The first batch of funding for equipment updates has been allocated to approximately 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, with ongoing project reviews for subsequent funding [4]

在业内人士看来，为更好地开展以旧换新，金融机构须以创新产品与协同机制合力破局。多方共管简化 流程、数字技术赋能风控、产业链协同发展，将成为金融持续护航以旧换新、做强国内大循环的重要路 径。 为小微企业垫资"减压" 针对部分参与消费品以旧换新的市场主体资金垫付压力大、周转存在困难等难点，银行推出创新贷款产 品，部分地区也推出融资新模式。 《指导意见》提出，要"加大对报废机动车回收拆解、废旧家电回收及家电以旧换新、家装厨卫'焕 新'、生活必需品保供相关企业信贷支持力度"。 原标题：创新产品与协同机制并进 金融机构多举措赋能"消费品以旧换新" 日前，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》 （以下简称《指导意见》）提出，"鼓励金融机构多渠道、多方式做好消费品以旧换新金融服务"。 为支持国内大循环，金融机构正积极参与支持以旧换新，尤其针对部分参与消费品以旧换新的市场主体 所面临的资金垫付压力大、周转存在困难等难点，精准提供金融支持，努力缓解企业垫资"减压"。 民银行佛山市分行将"白名单"推送至银行机构，引导银行机构充分发挥资金流信息平台在客户准入、贷 前调查等方面的重要作用 ...

Group 1: Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Oscillating with an upward bias; Medium - term - Bullish [1] - Core View: Overseas risks are decreasing, Sino - US consultations are progressing positively, domestic policies are boosting the equity market, and the science and technology sector is expected to continue its upward trend [1] - Strategy: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] Group 2: Financial Futures and Options - Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Oscillating and rebounding; Medium - term - Bullish [2] - Core View: The domestic fundamental situation is weak, policy expectations are strengthening, and the money market is conducive to the bond market [3] - Strategy: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [2] Group 3: Commodity Futures and Options - Black and Building Materials Sector - Investment Rating: Intraday - Short - term switching between long and short, downward driving force weakening; Medium - term - Stopping decline and stabilizing [4] - Core View: Supply pressure of steel raw materials will ease, and speculative demand for steel will heat up in the short term [4][5] - Strategy: Buy RB2510 at - the - money call options and short RB2510 straddle options in the range of 2900 - 3200 [4]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Weifang Municipal Government has introduced a subsidy policy for home renovation aimed at elderly individuals aged 60 and above, promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, specifically focusing on home modifications for aging in place [1][2]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The subsidy covers six types of home modification scenarios, including ground and door renovations, bedroom modifications, toilet and bathing equipment upgrades, kitchen equipment improvements, physical environment modifications, and smart assistive devices, totaling 25 categories of products [2]. - The subsidy standard is set at 30% of the actual sales price for each product, which is the highest among all consumer goods replacement subsidy policies. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one product only once, with a maximum subsidy of 2000 yuan per item and a total subsidy cap of 12000 yuan for up to six products [1][2]. Group 2: Implementation and Application Process - The implementation of the subsidy will begin once the Weifang home renovation service platform is launched, and it will continue until the allocated funds are exhausted. If the policy ends early, an announcement will be made [2]. - Consumers can apply for the subsidy through the "Luhuanxin" mini-program on the Cloud Flash Payment APP or the "Weifang Old for New" section, completing real-name authentication to receive the corresponding product subsidies [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Promotional Measures - To ensure the orderly and effective implementation of the subsidy program, the Weifang Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau will select market participants and products based on legal and regulatory standards, publishing the list of participants and product information on official platforms [3]. - The bureau will continue to promote the home modification subsidy program, ensuring accurate communication of the policy to the public and organizing diverse promotional activities to stimulate consumer potential [3].

Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, focusing on both product and service consumption, with a special loan quota of 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care [3][4][8] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant results, with sales of related products exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year, indicating its effectiveness in stimulating demand and stabilizing economic growth [6][7] Group 2: Economic Stability and Global Cooperation - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of maintaining free trade and multilateralism to promote global economic stability during the 2025 Summer Davos Forum [4][5] - The commitment to open cooperation and mutual development is crucial for addressing global economic challenges and fostering a responsible international presence [5] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Market Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the third batch of funds for the "old-for-new" consumption policy will be distributed in July, continuing efforts to stimulate consumption [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the People's Bank of China released a plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance, aiming to build a comprehensive inclusive financial system over the next five years [7][8] Group 4: Stock Market Regulation Changes - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges proposed to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks from 5% to 10%, aligning with other main board stocks to improve pricing efficiency and liquidity [9] - This adjustment may lead to increased volatility and potential risks for retail investors, as the maximum daily fluctuation could reach 20% [9] Group 5: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries showing expansion [10] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, suggesting a recovery in market demand and improved manufacturing fundamentals [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample with production decline and profit drop, and it's expected that supply will stay loose, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to revert, and basis reversion trading may continue. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply slightly decreases with one more cold - repaired production line, and the industry profit keeps falling. The demand is expected to weaken further due to the poor real - estate situation. It is suggested to go long on dips in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main soda ash contract is 1181 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the main glass contract is 1006 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 175 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is - 13 yuan, down 17 yuan; that of glass is - 79 yuan, down 21 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 14 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is 37 yuan, down 3 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main soda ash contract is 1,588,831 lots, an increase of 79,343 lots; that of the main glass contract is 1,470,350 lots, an increase of 30,678 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 288,637 lots, a decrease of 65,695 lots; that in glass is - 322,568 lots, a decrease of 46,519 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 3,761 tons, an increase of 19 tons; those of glass are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,223 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; that of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,056 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.14 million tons/year; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 176.69 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 69,216,000 weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new - construction area of real estate is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative completion area of real estate is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters [2]. - The central bank plans to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land, and the real - estate market shows a stable trend. In the first five months, the total transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai is 10.94 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 30%. The real - estate market continued to recover in Q1 2025, and the decline has stopped and stabilized [2]. Industry News - The land transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 24.5% year - on - year in H1 2025. In the 25th week of 2025, the new - house transactions in Shenzhen were 1,150 units, a week - on - week increase of 2%. Two residential - related land parcels in Guangzhou were sold at the reserve price of 2.496 billion yuan [2]. - In June, the number and area of second - hand housing online sign - ups in Guangzhou increased by 7.18% and 8.03% respectively week - on - week. A residential land parcel in Chengdu's Jinniu District was sold for 1.748 billion yuan. The land revenue in Chengdu in H1 increased by 100% year - on - year [2]. - Two residential land parcels in Nanjing's Xuanwu District were sold for about 1.2 billion yuan, and Greentown won a plot for 1.022 billion yuan. China Jinmao spent about 5.144 billion yuan to acquire three land parcels [2]. Macro - aspect - The third - batch funds for consumer goods trade - in will be allocated in July. The operating rate of domestic soda ash plants decreased this week, and the production of soda ash declined. The market supply is still ample, and the profit of domestic soda ash has decreased, with the profit of the ammonia - soda process turning negative [2].

瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面：财政部：国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下 达。玻璃方面，供应端：玻璃产线冷修增加一条，整体产量小幅下滑，维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明 显。行业整体利润不佳，继续下滑，后续复产力度恐继续下行。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月房 地产数据显示下滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备 货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差维持正常范围，后续市场交 易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思 维。 华联期货指出，上周1条产线放水，2条前期点火产线陆续出玻璃，以及前期热修产线恢复，周熔量环比 略有减少，后续仍有产线点火，日熔量将低位回升。厂家库存环比小幅去库，其中华北地区去库较明 显，华东地区也有小幅去库，其它地区均小幅累库。短期玻璃估值相对偏低驱动反弹，不过淡季需求改 善有限，库存仍处同期高位，弱现实令玻璃价格持续承压，预计短期震荡偏强。操作上，建议维持反弹 做空思路，或卖出虚值看涨期权。 西南期货表示，多数深加工企业仍然刚需维持，实际供需矛盾不突出，市 ...

Economic Overview - Shenzhen's economy showed overall stability and progress in the first five months of the year, with industrial production maintaining a steady growth of 3.5% year-on-year in the scale of above-designated size industries [1] - High-tech product output continued to grow rapidly, with significant increases in civilian drones (68.0%), 3D printing equipment (40.7%), and industrial robots (38.8%) [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen faced pressure, declining by 9.2% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 11.9% [2] - Industrial technology transformation investment surged by 48.2%, while information transmission, software, and IT service industries grew by 48.7% [2] - Social retail sales showed a notable recovery, with total retail sales reaching 411.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] Consumer Behavior - The consumption of basic living goods performed well, with retail sales of daily necessities and grain and oil products increasing by 10.6% and 10.4%, respectively [2] - The "old for new" policy in consumer goods continued to show effectiveness, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (74.9%) and cultural office supplies (34.4%) [2] - Online retail also saw robust growth, with sales through the internet increasing by 25.6% [2] Foreign Trade - Shenzhen's total import and export value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with exports falling by 8.6% and imports rising by 10.1% [3] - High-tech product exports grew by 6.2%, indicating a positive trend in this sector despite overall declines [3] Financial Sector - Financial institutions in Shenzhen reported a steady increase in deposits and loans, with total deposits reaching 14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3] - The loan balance also increased by 2.9%, reflecting a stable financial environment [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Shenzhen experienced mild inflation, with an overall increase of 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Specific categories showed varied price changes, with food and beverage prices up by 0.7% and clothing prices up by 1.4% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The State Council will issue the third - batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and promote the equipment update loan discount policy to reduce the financing cost of business entities. The steel supply increased last week, driving up raw material demand and strengthening cost support, which in turn led to a rebound in steel prices. Although the apparent demand decreased slightly, in line with the off - season characteristics, it is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and rebound in the short term due to cost - push factors [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2995 | 3 | 0.10 | 7455274 | 3091097 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3121 | 5 | 0.16 | 2632410 | 1510669 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 716.5 | 13.5 | 1.92 | 1692774 | 654225 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 847.5 | 52.5 | 6.60 | 5225301 | 733946 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1421.5 | 37.0 | 2.67 | 144716 | 56720 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. The macro - level policy of consumer goods trade - in and the increase in steel production at the fundamental level supported the raw material demand and cost. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 (- 10) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3080 (- 10) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3190 (- 10) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - On June 26, the third - batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in will be issued in July, and the national subsidy fund usage plan will be formulated monthly and weekly. Recently, inspections in Linfen, Shanxi are frequent. Two coal mines in Pu County stopped production due to environmental protection, with a production capacity of 330 million tons. Some coal mines and coal - washing plants are still shut down, and the supply in Linfen continues to shrink. The state will support equipment updates with 200 billion Yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds this year, with the first batch of about 173 billion Yuan already allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields, and the second batch is under project review and screening [7][10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][16]