【黄金期货最新行情】 | 5月12日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 772.28 | -2.01% | 608130 | 210771 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，5月12日上海黄金现货价格报价780.1元/克，相较于期货主力价格（772.28元/克）升水7.82 元/克。 上周众多央行利率决议出炉后，本周市场关注的焦点将转至经济数据和美国与主要贸易伙伴之间的会谈 细节。 美国总统特朗普5 月 13 日至 16 日出访沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋期间，也料将发表一系列言论。 美国周二将公布 4 月CPI 数据，这将影响美联储的利率预期。随后是 PPI、零售销售、每周申请失业救 济人数、费城联储指数、工业生产、房屋开工，以及周五的密西根大学消费者信心和通胀预期。旧金山 联储总裁戴利将发表讲话。 欧元区将发布欧盟经济预测、第一季国内生产总值(GDP)第二次估值和就业、工业生产和贸易。德国将 公布 ZEW 经济景气指数和 4 月通胀率终值。 英国的繁忙日 ...

周一（5月12日）亚洲早盘，澳大利亚元（AUD）正在延续其近期的势头，周一连续第二个交易日兑美 元（USD）上涨，因中美贸易谈判乐观，澳元/美元在0.6400上方聚集力量，最新澳元兑美元汇率涨至 0.6420附近。澳元兑美元的汇率受到美国和中国在日内瓦举行的贸易谈判中日益增长的乐观情绪的提 振。 澳元兑美元汇率正在测试其初步支撑位，位于九天指数移动平均线0.6420，随后是50天指数移动平均线 0.6345。跌破这些水平可能会削弱看涨前景，并可能导致该汇率跌至自2020年3月以来的最低点0.5914。 展望未来，交易员们正关注澳大利亚的关键经济数据发布，包括周二的西太平洋消费者信心指数和澳大 利亚国民银行商业状况指数，这些数据可能为澳元提供新的线索。投资者还关注即将公布的美国数据， 包括周二的消费者通胀数据，以及周四的零售销售和生产者价格指数数据，以评估贸易争端对更广泛经 济的初步影响。 周一，澳元对美元汇率在0.6420附近交易。日线图的技术分析显示中性倾向，因为该汇率维持在上升通 道模式下方。然而，14天相对强弱指数（RSI）仍保持在50以上，表明多头趋势仍在发挥作用。 在上涨方面，澳元兑美元汇率可能会回 ...

首席点评：中美经贸高层会谈达成共识 5 月 10 日至 11 日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。中方代表团在新闻发布会上表示，双方 就彼此关心的经贸问题开展了深入交流。会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进 展，达成了重要共识。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，明确双方牵头人，就各自关切的经贸问题 开展进一步的磋商。中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明。 美联储在 5 月的利率会议上选择按兵不动，显示出对经济前景的不确定性和失业率上升以及通胀上升风 险的担忧。中国方面持续释放政策利好。人民银行行长潘功胜宣布降准降息，金融监管总局提出八项举 措全力巩固经济回升向好的基本面。 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% ，央行连续六个月增持黄金。 中美经贸高层会谈和美联储的政策动态都对全球经济形势产生了重要影响。中国持续释放的政策利好显 示出其应对经济压力的决心和能力，同时也为全球经济增添了稳定性。 重点品种： 原油，黄金，股指 原油 ： 英国宣布美国贸易协议取得"突破"，国际油价继续上涨。中国副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方 牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting May 15, and by 5 percentage points for auto finance and leasing companies [6][12] - Multiple domestic internet giants will release their financial reports next week, including JD.com on May 13, Tencent on May 14, and Alibaba and NetEase on May 15 [6][14] - E-commerce platforms such as Tmall and Suning will start their 618 pre-sale activities on May 13, while Douyin Mall and JD.com will also launch promotional events on the same day [6][15] Group 2 - 28 stocks in the A-share market will face the unlocking of restricted shares next week, totaling 1.066 billion shares with a market value of 18.63 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 58.25% [3] - The stocks with the highest unlocking market value include Guojin Securities, Qiangrui Technology, and Jiangsu Huachen, with respective values of 4.166 billion yuan, 3.243 billion yuan, and 2.644 billion yuan [3][4] - There will be no new stock subscriptions in the A-share market next week, but Tian Gong Co. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13 [3][5] Group 3 - Walmart is expected to report its Q1 2026 financial results on May 15, with projected revenue of $164.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, and an expected earnings per share of $0.579, a decrease of 8.11% [6][16] - UBS analysts believe Walmart's first-quarter results will show stable and predictable revenue despite broader concerns about tariffs and economic pressures [6][16] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q1 2025 on May 16 [3][4] - The U.S. will release key economic data next week, including the April CPI on May 13 and the April PPI and retail sales on May 15 [4][5]

本周，黄金整体冲高回落走势，周一周二大阳上涨，周三小幅跳空高开后直接拐头下跌收阴，周四延续下跌收阴，周五下探回升收阳，周线最终收出一根带 有长上影线的阳线。 一、基本面 1、本周市场情况 （1）地缘政治因素 中东局势持续紧张，伊朗核谈判推迟，美伊关系紧张，随时可能升级的冲突持续为黄金提供避险支撑。同时，俄乌冲突依旧存在，印度与巴基斯坦的军事对 峙局面未变，这些地缘政治风险巩固了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，刺激市场避险需求，推动金价上涨。 （2）经济数据与政策因素 美英达成贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税、扩大产品市场准入，但协议仍有诸多细节待定。此外，欧盟威胁对千亿欧元美国产品征税，贸易紧张局势的 不确定性依然存在，这对黄金价格产生了双向影响。 美国经济数据：5月3日当周首次申请失业救济人数下降至22.8万人，低于市场预期，显示就业市场有一定韧性。不过，美联储理事巴尔警告特朗普关税政策 可能在今年晚些时候推高通胀、降低经济增长并增加失业率。美国经济数据的复杂性使得市场对经济前景的预期存在分歧，增加了市场不确定性，影响黄金 走势。 美联储政策预期：5月8日，美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连 ...

市场消息：英国统计局局长在经济数据危机中宣布辞职。 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with differing opinions on potential rate cuts within the year, which could enhance gold's value preservation demand [2] - Strong U.S. employment data may raise inflation concerns, supporting gold prices; however, March core PCE data showed a slowdown in inflation, leading to a more cautious monetary policy from the Fed [2] - Economic data from major economies like China will also impact physical demand for gold and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, driving funds into gold and supporting its price [3] - Fluctuations in global financial markets and unpredictable trade policies have led investors to seek refuge in gold, pushing prices higher [3] - The interplay of Fed monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment collectively influences gold prices, with a potential short-term target of $3,500 per ounce if dovish Fed statements and worsening geopolitical situations persist [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The spot gold market initially broke through the key resistance level of $3,399, reaching an intraday peak of $3,414.79, but subsequently reversed direction [4] - After a brief consolidation, gold prices fell to the target level of $3,322, achieving a notable profit margin of $42 [4] - Current technical indicators suggest a dominant bearish trend, with short-term moving averages suppressing long-term averages, indicating a high likelihood of continued downward movement [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market showed expected behavior, rebounding to $33.750 before retreating to a low of $32.295, where signs of stabilization emerged [6] - The short-term chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with short-term moving averages consistently crossing below long-term averages [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for silver prices to rebound to the resistance level of $32.660 for a short position, with a stop-loss set at $32.960 and a profit target at $32.240 [6]

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

20250509申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 784.54 | 790.42 | 8154.00 | 8221.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 794.80 | 800.38 | 8235.00 | 8306.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -10.26 | -9.96 | -81.00 | -85.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.29% | -1.24% | -0.98% | -1.02% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 127407 | 51018 | 232016 | 108449 | | | | 成交量 | 197963 | 17040 | 274975 | 16641 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut decisions will depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and actual economic data, particularly employment data [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Recent soft data in the U.S. has shown overall weakness, while hard data remains robust [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see approach, not rushing to cut rates, and plans to act once the situation becomes clearer [1] - Future interest rate cut decisions will primarily depend on the trends in hard data, especially employment figures [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - If employment data weakens significantly before the June meeting, and inflation pressure remains manageable in April and May, there is a probability of a rate cut in June [1] - Conversely, if conditions do not align, the decision for a rate cut may be postponed until July or later [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Continued attention will be on changes in U.S. tariff policies and hard data, including employment figures, to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [1]