作者丨孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 编辑丨陆跃玲 美联储将于7月29日至30日召开货币政策例会。目前市场认为这次会议降息概率接近于0，9月 降息概率也不到60%，主要原因是美国6月CPI数据表明，美国关税的通胀效应有所显现，美 联储仍需观察后续影响，且目前美国就业和经济增长情况总体良好，不必急于降息。然而最 近一系列相关进展表明，美国经济金融状况和内外环境正在发生新的变化，美联储决策的重 点和平衡点也将相应发生变化，本月会议可能未必按市场预期行事。 美联储两位理事沃勒和鲍曼6月表示支持7月降息，主席鲍威尔随后在国会听证会上也没有排 除这一可能性，表示对关税向零售价格的传导小于预期持"完全开放"的态度并将影响美联储 的政策，同时也强调预计美国关税将在6到8月间对价格产生显著影响，表示要等待形势更加 清晰明朗再作决定。也有FOMC其他委员表示关税将会使美国通胀上升，应继续维持现行利率 不变，但最新的形势变化也可能使美联储官员调整想法。 美国关税政策不确定性或将减弱。从美国最近与日本和欧盟达成的协议来看，15%关税具有标 志性意义，因为日本和欧盟对美贸易分量更大（欧盟最大），可视为美国的关税要求底线。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29-30 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July and less than 60% for September, primarily due to the recent CPI data indicating the inflation effects of tariffs [1] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential shift in policy considerations, with some members supporting a rate cut while others advocate for maintaining current rates due to rising inflation concerns from tariffs [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is diminishing, as recent agreements with Japan and the EU suggest a potential stabilization of tariff levels, which could reduce the Fed's concerns regarding inflation and influence their decision-making [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are not showing significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a projected PCE inflation growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.7% [3] - Research indicates that excluding tariff impacts, U.S. inflation has been close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that the inflationary pressure from tariffs may not be as significant as previously thought [3] - If consumers absorb one-third of the new tariffs, a permanent 10% increase in tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points this year, but this effect is expected to dissipate by next year [3] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [4] - The private sector's employment situation is critical for understanding economic momentum, and recent adjustments suggest that previous job growth figures may have been overestimated [4] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and PMI show stability, but sectors sensitive to interest rates, like manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Independence - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with external pressures from the Trump administration advocating for rate cuts [5] - A rate cut in July could be perceived as yielding to political pressure, while a refusal to cut rates when appropriate could undermine the Fed's independence [5] - The possibility of postponing a rate cut until September is being considered by some FOMC members, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]

"现在就假设关税不会产生通胀压力还为时过早，"卡尔瓦西纳等RBC策略师们在周日发布的一份研究报告中写道，该报告发布 时正值欧盟与美国宣布正式达成贸易协议之后。"如果在关税重压之下，美国企业对下半年以及2026年的利润展望并不像投资 者们一直预期的那样乐观，这也会给屡创新高的美国股市走势带来巨大的回调风险。" 随着散户与机构投资者们押注美国企业盈利增长将继续强劲，美国股市已反弹至历史最高位且多个交易日创下历史新高。据 Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的数据，Q2美股财报季截至目前，约82%的标普500指数成份公司的第二季度整体盈利超出华尔街普 遍预期，为近四年来最高的超预期比例。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管本季美国财报季开局强劲，但来自加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的策略师团队认 为，现在就排除特朗普关税政策对美国通胀和企业盈利造成的影响为时尚早。由华尔街顶级策略师洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)领衔的RBC策略团队表示，初步趋势显示，美国企业迄今对特朗普发起的新一轮贸易战表现出韧性，然而，RBC表 示，该机构调查显示多位美国大型企业的高管警告称， ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价维持震荡。伦敦现货黄金收于3，350美元/盎司（周环比-0.2%），国内AU9999黄金收于774元/ 克（周环比0.4%）。 美国6月通胀温和上行，略不及预期。6月核心CPI环比回升至0.23%，不及预期的0.3%。6月CPI温和上 行主要由两类短期因素推动：一是以伊冲突引发的油价上涨，并传导至机票价格回升，但这只是短期事 件性驱动的上涨，目前油价已回落，不构成长期通胀风险；二是关税驱动的核心商品中服装价格的上 涨。除去机票价格的短期扰动，核心服务其他分项涨幅整体较小，并且占比最大的住房价格同环比均稳 步回落，显示供给侧的商品关税通胀尚未通过工资传导至需求侧的服务通胀，因此关税通胀可能只是一 次性的供给侧冲击。最新数据显示，市场预期年内美联储或仍降息2次。 当前关税不确定性仍较高。特朗普最新宣称，美国可能在8月1日前对进口药品和半导体加征关税。此 外，美国已向多个贸易伙伴发出单边关税通知函，但表示将继续进行谈判。市场对新关税表态的反应平 淡，更多视为特朗普贸易谈判的筹码，但预期越低，超预期的可能也越大，因此若关税最终落地，市场 避险情绪或再度激增。 展望后市，美国贸易保 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) increasing by 2.9%, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - Economists attribute the rising inflation to frequent tariff increases by the U.S. government, with expectations that inflation will worsen in the second half of the year as the "tariff effect" becomes more pronounced [1] - The Federal Reserve's national economic conditions report indicates that inflationary pressures are spreading across all regions, with many businesses passing on costs to consumers through price hikes or additional fees [1] Group 2 - Major retailers in the U.S., such as Walmart, Best Buy, and Costco, have raised prices due to tariff-related cost pressures, with some Walmart products seeing price increases of up to 51% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that both businesses and consumers will ultimately bear the burden of tariffs, with expectations that inflation could rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months [2] - Concerns are growing that the cumulative effects of tariffs will further increase inflation, weaken consumer purchasing power, and hinder economic recovery, especially following new tariffs imposed on countries like Canada [2]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 关税对美国通胀和财政影响多大？ 证券研究报告 特朗普关税政策跟踪 目前宣布的关税政策有哪些？ 截至目前，特朗普宣布或威胁的关税政策，可以分成 4 部分： 1）基于芬太尼和边境问题的关税，主要针对中、加、墨；但符合 USMCA 的商品已经豁免。2）已达成贸易协议的国家：英国、越南、印尼。贸易协 议有 2 个特征：对供应链安全的重视、要求购买美国商品。协议尚未发布 官方文本，细节仍有悬念。3）"对等关税 2.0"，延长谈判期限至 8 月 1 日。 4）行业关税，包括钢铁和铝及其制品（包括钢制家电）、汽车及其关键零 部件、铜关税。 实际有效关税税率上升了多少？ 今年以来，截至 5 月，美国平均有效关税税率从 2.3%上升至 8.8%，共上升 6.5 个百分点。分国家看，对中国征收的平均关税税率上行最多、而对加 拿大、墨西哥的有效关税上升幅度较小。分行业看，钢铁和铝及其制品的 有效关税税率上行幅度最大，其次是家具、寝具、玩具、运动用品、服装 鞋靴被征收的平均关税税率提升较大。 关税如何影响美国通胀？ 1）美国在关税生效之前、到底以较低的价格"囤货"了多少？ 从美国的进口数据看：贵金属（尤其 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that since the implementation of tariffs in February, US core inflation has consistently underperformed expectations for five consecutive months. This is attributed to factors such as pre-positioning of imports and inventory cycles by US traders, increased imports from Mexico contributing to deflation, and the relatively low weight of tariff-sensitive core goods in the CPI. Additionally, tariffs have negatively impacted the service sector and overall US economic demand [1][10]. Fixed Income - The issuance of the first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is expected to enhance the demand for Sci-Tech bonds, as these ETFs offer low fees, high transparency, and efficient trading mechanisms. This could lead to a significant increase in the scale of these ETFs and consequently boost the demand for underlying bonds. If the growth rate is rapid, the underlying bonds may experience a favorable market trend, outperforming individual bonds of similar credit quality [2][11][14]. - The report indicates that the introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs will improve market liquidity for these bonds, allowing investors to participate more easily and enhancing market activity. This is expected to compress liquidity premiums and improve the performance of Sci-Tech bond varieties [2][11][14]. Industry - The domestic automotive lighting industry is currently characterized by a "two super, many strong" competitive landscape, with market share expected to continue concentrating towards leading firms. The industry has high entry barriers due to customer resources, technology development, cost control, and quality certification [3][15]. - The report notes a significant decline in Japanese lighting manufacturers over the past decade, while European manufacturers have maintained stability. Domestic leaders like Xingyu have shown continuous growth, with revenue surpassing competitors [3][15][16]. - Investment recommendations favor Xingyu as a leading domestic automotive lighting company, driven by the ongoing intelligent upgrades in automotive lighting, which are expected to increase average selling prices (ASP) and industry growth potential. The company has established deep partnerships with major clients in the new energy vehicle sector, positioning it well for future growth [3][15][16]. - Profit forecasts for Xingyu indicate expected net profits of 1.761 billion, 2.189 billion, and 2.683 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [3][15][16]. Public Utilities - The report discusses the renewable energy operator industry, highlighting that three major constraints (electricity prices, consumption, and subsidies) are expected to ease, leading to a reversal for green electricity operators. The introduction of a unified pricing mechanism for renewable energy is anticipated to stabilize electricity prices and improve project profitability [5][17][18]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality green electricity operators with pure green assets, suggesting companies like Longyuan Power and China General Nuclear Power as potential beneficiaries of the expected market improvements [5][17][18].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250720 鲍威尔维护独立性令美联储 9 月难降息 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《关税落地后，美国通胀为何连续不 及预期？》 2025-07-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周美国经济数据边际走强，"软数据"密歇根大学消费者 信心指数与"硬数据"零售销售均好于预期，美股上行；特朗普关税威 胁一度令美债利率抬升，但随后在 PPI 数据不及预期和美联储理事沃 勒的鸽派发言带动下，美债利率有所回落，10 年期美债利率全周升 0.62bps 至 4.416%。本周公布的 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is likely to initially drive up inflation in the U.S., with the potential for future deflation depending on the economic conditions [1][2][3] - The article discusses the divergence in market opinions regarding the impact of high tariffs on U.S. price levels, with mainstream views suggesting that tariffs will push inflation up through import cost transmission, while others argue that it may suppress economic growth and lead to deflationary pressures [2][3] - Historical evidence shows that while tariffs can create cost-push inflation, significant economic contractions can lead to stronger deflationary forces, as seen during the Great Depression and the 2018 trade tensions [3][10] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests that tariffs are more likely to trigger inflation rather than directly cause deflation, due to three main factors: the relative health of the U.S. economy, the significant increase in tariff rates with limited import substitution options, and a relatively weak dollar [7][8][9] - Inflationary pressures began to manifest in May 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase, and further price increases are expected as the tariff policy is fully implemented [11][12] - The article notes that the price increases may not be one-time events, as the uncertain and gradual nature of the tariff implementation could lead to sustained inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers [16][17] Group 3 - Other factors influencing inflation include expansionary fiscal policies, such as the "Big and Beautiful" act, which is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit and support inflation levels, and stricter immigration policies that may lead to labor shortages and rising wage costs [19] - Conversely, potential downward pressures on inflation could arise from spending cuts and slowing economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund and OECD lowering their GDP growth forecasts for the U.S. [20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].