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重点是企业盈利:6月经济综述
HONGTA SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 07:01
Economic Overview - Despite rising global trade friction costs, China's economic data in May showed strong resilience, with social retail sales increasing by 6.3% year-on-year and industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year, suggesting a GDP growth rate of around 5.2% in the second quarter, making it feasible to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [1][7] - However, from January to May, industrial enterprise profits declined by 1.1% year-on-year, a drop of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating multiple challenges in the transition from economic stabilization to profit recovery [1][7] Analysis of Profit Decline - The key reason for the weakening of enterprise profits is low prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to May and a single-month decline of 3.3% in May, leading to a year-on-year drop in industrial profit margins by 4.24% [2][9] - On the supply side, manufacturing investment has consistently outpaced overall fixed asset investment, leading to capacity expansion primarily in high-tech sectors, making it difficult to execute capacity reduction in emerging manufacturing fields [2][12] - On the demand side, external demand is constrained by factors such as U.S. inventory replenishment, uncertainty in total demand, and increased tariff rates, while domestic consumption growth relies heavily on policies like trade-in programs and preemptive sales events [2][15] Policy Response and Market Impact - In the context of weak demand, enterprises face inventory reduction pressures, making price recovery crucial. Policies need to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to promote price recovery and correct discrepancies in macro and micro expectations [2][19] - Before clear policy signals emerge, bonds hold investment value, while the stock market may benefit from improved liquidity and sentiment recovery, although a steady upward trend relies on continuous improvement in corporate profits [2][19]
期指:驱动逻辑微调,或震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:37
金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 期指:驱动逻辑微调,或震荡偏强 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3921.76 | ↓0.61 | | 3434.7 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3892 | ↓0.79 | -29.76 | 467.6 | 39772 | ↑6970 | 70111 | ↑4653 | | IF2508 | 3882.4 | ↓0.72 | -39.36 | 26.2 | 2237 | ↑407 | 4026 | ↑623 | | IF2509 | 3876.6 | ↓0.74 | -45.16 | 658 | 56221 | ↑13045 | 139367 | ↑3684 | | IF2512 | 3846.4 | ↓0.72 | -75.36 | ...
2025年一季度国内经济回顾及中期展望:稳固基础,波动改善
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-27 13:05
Economic Growth and Trends - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4%, maintaining the same level as Q4 2024, driven primarily by consumption and exports[12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.8%, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter[13] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 4.6%, with a GDP deflator index growth rate of -0.8%, indicating weak domestic demand[13] Policy Measures - The government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies, with a focus on increasing the scale of deficits, special bonds, and treasury bonds[29] - In Q1 2025, general public budget expenditure and government fund expenditure grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with general public budget expenditure increasing by 4.2%[29] - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate announced on May 7, 2025[39] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, with service retail outperforming goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption[46] - Infrastructure investment in Q1 2025 grew by 11.5% year-on-year, supported by the accelerated issuance of special bonds[53] - Manufacturing investment growth in Q1 2025 was 9.1%, with significant increases in equipment purchases and high-tech industry investments[64] Export and External Environment - Short-term resilience in exports is noted, but uncertainties remain due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and global economic slowdown[2] - The net export contribution to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.1%, reflecting a strong performance despite external challenges[13] Price Stability - Consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) remain low, with the government aiming for a moderate recovery in prices as a key policy goal[6] - The overall price level is expected to stabilize, but the relationship between supply and demand needs further improvement to support price recovery[6]
央行大动作,降准降息新信号!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 07:47
央行连续超额续作中期借贷便利(MLF)净投放中长期资金。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕, 6月25日,央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展3000亿元 MLF操作,期限为1年期。 本月有1820亿元1年期MLF到期,这意味着,6月央行MLF净投放达到1180亿元,为连续第4个月加量续 作。叠加央行开展的2000亿元买断式逆回购操作,6月中期流动性净投放总额达3180亿元。业内人士表 示,面对政府债发行高峰与同业存单集中到期等因素,央行持续释放稳流动性、稳信心的政策信号,叠 加财政支出加快、银行资金融出意愿较强因素,季末资金面整体可控, 预计后续货币政策仍将保持适 度灵活,强化对实体经济的支持。 具体来看,央行5月净投放3750亿元、4月净投放5000亿元、3月净投放630亿元。此外,从3月起,为保 持银行体系流动性充裕,更好满足不同参与机构差异化资金需求,央行调整MLF操作方式,由单一价 位中标调整为多重价位中标(即美式招标)。不再有统一的中标利率,标志着MLF利率的政策属性完 全退出,利率市场化进程加速。 MLF持续净投放背后有着深刻的政策考量。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为, 在5月降准释放长期流 ...
6月中期流动性净投放总额已超3000亿元 预计流动性不会大幅收紧
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 05:31
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 300 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 118 billion due to 182 billion MLF maturing this month [1] - In June, the PBOC conducted a total of 1.4 trillion reverse repos to offset 1.2 trillion maturing reverse repos, resulting in a total net liquidity injection of 318 billion [1] - Analysts suggest that the continuous net liquidity injection is driven by large-scale government bond issuance and high maturing interbank certificates of deposit, aiming to stabilize market expectations and meet financing needs [1] Group 2 - The reliance on MLF and reverse repos has increased due to the suspension of government bond purchases, with expectations for the PBOC to restart bond buying as liquidity consumption rises [2] - As the end of the quarter approaches, interbank funding rates have increased, with R007 rising by 25.9 basis points to 1.82% and DR007 by 16.1 basis points to 1.67% [2] - The PBOC is expected to use various tools, including MLF and reverse repos, to maintain a net liquidity injection in the second half of the year, while also potentially resuming government bond transactions [2]
重磅!财政部:根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策
证券时报· 2025-06-25 02:53
受国务院委托,财政部部长蓝佛安24日向十四届全国人大常委会第十六次会议作2024年中央决算的报告。根据 报告,2024年,财政改革发展各项工作取得新进展,中央决算情况总体较好。 新华社北京6月24日电 题:决算情况总体较好 加力实施财政政策——聚焦2024年中央决算报告 来源:新华社 责编:李丹 校对:冉燕青 版权声明 报告显示,2024年,中央一般公共预算收入100462.06亿元,为预算的98.1%,加上调入和结转资金,收入总量 为108844.06亿元。中央一般公共预算支出141055.9亿元,完成预算的97.9%,加上补充中央预算稳定调节基 金,支出总量为142244.06亿元。 增加6万亿元地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务,总额一次报批、分配一次到位、分年安排实施,其中2024 年2万亿元置换额度已全部发行、基本置换完毕;安排并发行1万亿元超长期特别国债,制定资金监管暂行办 法,推进"两重"项目建设和"两新"政策实施;提高国家奖助学金资助标准并扩大政策覆盖面,上调国家助学贷 款额度、调减贷款利率,惠及学生3400多万人次;进一步增加科技投入,中央财政本级科技支出增长 7.4%……报告里的一组数据彰显 ...
人大常委会丨决算情况总体较好 加力实施财政政策——聚焦2024年中央决算报告
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-06-24 14:51
新华社北京6月24日电 题:决算情况总体较好 加力实施财政政策——聚焦2024年中央决算报告 新华社记者申铖 受国务院委托,财政部部长蓝佛安24日向十四届全国人大常委会第十六次会议作2024年中央决算的报 告。根据报告,2024年,财政改革发展各项工作取得新进展,中央决算情况总体较好。 报告显示,2024年,中央一般公共预算收入100462.06亿元,为预算的98.1%,加上调入和结转资金,收 入总量为108844.06亿元。中央一般公共预算支出141055.9亿元,完成预算的97.9%,加上补充中央预算 稳定调节基金,支出总量为142244.06亿元。 增加6万亿元地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务,总额一次报批、分配一次到位、分年安排实施,其 中2024年2万亿元置换额度已全部发行、基本置换完毕;安排并发行1万亿元超长期特别国债,制定资金 监管暂行办法,推进"两重"项目建设和"两新"政策实施;提高国家奖助学金资助标准并扩大政策覆盖 面,上调国家助学贷款额度、调减贷款利率,惠及学生3400多万人次;进一步增加科技投入,中央财政 本级科技支出增长7.4%……报告里的一组数据彰显去年财政政策有力有效。 "2024 ...
中国人民银行等六部门:实施好货币政策,加强逆周期和跨周期调节,综合运用准备金、再贷款再贴现、公开市场操作等多种货币政策工具,保持流动性充裕,持续推动社会综合融资成本下降。
news flash· 2025-06-24 09:07
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments emphasize the importance of implementing effective monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and reduce overall financing costs in society [1] Group 1 - The implementation of monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting a decrease in comprehensive financing costs [1] - Various monetary policy tools will be employed, including reserve requirements, relending, rediscounting, and open market operations [1] - The approach aims to strengthen both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to better respond to economic fluctuations [1]
高频经济跟踪周报20250621:国际油价升至年内高位-20250621
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-21 13:59
Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]
智库策论 | 王宇:实施好适度宽松的货币政策 积极应对国内外经济挑战
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 01:02
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy, particularly through the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, to address the uncertainties arising from the changing external environment and to ensure high-quality economic development [1]. PART.01: Reasons for Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Global economic growth is slowing, with increased uncertainty due to rising trade protectionism. The IMF has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the WTO has cut the global trade growth forecast from 3.2% to 1.7% [2]. - The slowdown in global trade is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's tariff and trade policies, which have raised trade costs and inflation pressures, leading to reduced investment and economic growth [2]. - China's economy is highly integrated into the global market, with a trade dependence of 72.4% as of April 2025, and external shocks from global trade slowdowns are impacting China's foreign trade growth [2]. PART.02: Understanding Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Monetary policy focuses on total demand management and counter-cyclical adjustments. It aims to restore balance between total demand and supply, ensuring price stability and economic growth [6]. - Moderately loose monetary policy involves dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic and financial market changes, utilizing various tools to lower financing costs and stimulate demand [7]. - The policy framework includes five stances: loose, moderately loose, stable, moderately tight, and tight, with adjustments made according to economic conditions [8]. PART.03: Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - The implementation of moderately loose monetary policy has shown effectiveness in promoting economic growth and managing total demand [10]. - Key measures include lowering policy interest rates and maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, with significant reductions in loan rates for enterprises and individuals [11]. - The People's Bank of China has introduced ten monetary policy measures to enhance support for the real economy, focusing on total, price, and structural aspects to ensure effective policy transmission and support for key sectors [12][13].