[Table_Summary] 3 月工业企业利润和营收同比增速双双录得回升。拆分来看，本次利润增速回升主要来自量和 利润率同比改善，价格则在低位继续震荡。从分工业门类来看，制造业利润回升明显，动能预 计主要源自于抢出口和设备更新持续拉动装备制造行业需求脉冲式回升。从企业经营角度，经 营压力边际有所改善，但库存延续被动回补趋势，反映整体需求继续偏弱运行。后续总需求能 否进一步改善，是驱动企业利润长期复苏的观察锚点。而 4 月政治局会议传递出中央对支撑内 需的信心和态度坚定，期待后续储备政策陆续出台承托需求韧性和企业利润增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 盈利增速脉冲式回升 ——1-3 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title 盈利增速脉冲式回升 2] ——1-3 月工业企业利润点评 事件描述 2025 年 4 月 27 日，国家统计局公布数据：1- ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economy amid increasing external shocks, highlighting the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support growth and employment [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and positioning it among the leading global economies [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the need to solidify the foundation for ongoing economic recovery due to heightened external pressures [2]. Policy Tools - The meeting called for the enhancement of the policy toolbox to include both flexibility and unconventional features, aiming to respond effectively to economic fluctuations [2]. - It was noted that the policies should be timely and responsive to changes in the economic landscape, with a focus on stabilizing employment and economic growth [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial instruments [4][5]. - Recent data indicated a significant increase in social financing, with March's increment reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting robust monetary support for economic recovery [4]. Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan announced [6]. - The focus will be on expediting fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structures to ensure the stability of basic public services [6][7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that fiscal policies may include measures such as increasing the issuance of government bonds and expanding consumer subsidies to stimulate new consumption growth areas [7]. - The meeting highlighted the urgency of addressing local government debts owed to enterprises, indicating a potential allocation of funds to resolve these issues [7].

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]

多只成分股表现强势 星石投资认为，短期看，国内暂时缺少新的驱动因素，叠加临近五一假期，海外不确定性因素仍较多， 预计市场以震荡为主。中期来看，海外扰动因素冲击最大的时刻已经过去，中国市场进一步下行风险有 所减小。全球经济秩序重构和美国政策高度不确定性的环境可能会持续，这可能导致全球资金流出美国 市场，相应非美资产有望受益。 上周市场反弹，上证指数上涨0.56%，深证成指上涨1.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%，沪深300指数上涨 0.38%，品牌工程指数上涨0.45%，报1614.56点。 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股表现强势。具体来说，科沃斯上涨12.34%，排在涨幅榜首位；信立泰上 涨9.99%，居次席；上海家化和珀莱雅涨逾9%；药明康德上涨8.53%；丸美生物、中际旭创、宁德时代 涨逾7%；华谊集团、小熊电器、石头科技涨逾5%；阳光电源、恒瑞医药、盾安环境涨逾4%；兆易创 新、恒顺醋业、新宝股份、步长制药、亿纬锂能涨逾3%。 □本报记者 王宇露 2025开年以来，上海家化上涨34.83%，排在涨幅榜首位；信立泰上涨28.19%，居次席；丸美生物和广 联达涨逾20%；安集科技上涨19.48%；韦尔股份、山西汾 ...

会议提出要创设新的结构性货币政策工具，重点支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域，设立服务 消费和养老再贷款。在上述重点支持领域，部分已有结构性货币政策工具覆盖，有些领域尚需创设新工 具。已有的科技创新再贷款、科技创新和技术改造再贷款、普惠养老专项再贷款均属于阶段性工具，预 计央行会通过展期、扩大额度、降低利率、优化再贷款发放条件等方式加大对金融机构的资金支持力 度。 结构性货币政策工具以正向激励的市场化方式，引导金融机构将信贷资源更多投向经济重点领域和薄弱 环节。相比之下，政策性金融工具既属于货币金融政策的组成，也兼具财政政策特征。此次会议强调要 加强超常规逆周期调节，而政策性金融工具有望发挥逆周期调节的作用，进一步强化财政、货币政策在 科技创新、稳定外贸等领域的协调配合。 千磨万击还坚劲，任尔东西南北风。面对外部环境的不确定性，我国将以"咬定青山不放松"的战略定力 聚焦高质量发展，通过逆周期调节与深化改革"组合拳"，共同稳定经济大盘。货币政策将在其中做出新 探索更好支持实体经济转型。 （文章来源：证券时报） 证券时报记者孙璐璐 在外部冲击影响加大的背景下，日前召开的中央政治局会议指出，要以高质量发展的确定 ...

具体看，在财政政策方面，会议强调，"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"。 本报记者韩昱 温彬认为，二季度中央金融机构注资特别国债和超长期特别国债开启发行，加之专项债券"自审自发"加 速推进，新增专项债券发行也会加快。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议强调，要加紧实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 展望未来，温彬表示，财政政策仍有加力空间，可能出台的增量政策举措包括，一是上调广义财政赤字 率目标，增发国债或特别国债；二是盘活地方债结存限额；三是加大消费补贴力度、扩大补贴范围，培 育壮大文化旅游消费、家政服务消费、数字消费、体育消费等新的消费增长点。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，"用好"体现在存量政策加速落地，今年一季度，财政发力支持经 济"开门红"，后续将加快专项债券以及超长期特别国债的发行使用，更好地促进经济增长、对冲外部扰 动。"用足"体现在"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节"，财政政策空间充 足，货币政策和财政政策的配合也将进一步加强。 从超长期特别国债角度看，今年我国拟发行超长期特别 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

Market Performance - Major global markets recorded gains, with Nasdaq up 6.73%, DAX up 4.89%, and S&P 500 rising over 4.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and other indices like CSI 300 and A50 saw more modest increases, with Hang Seng Index up 2.74% [1] A-Share Market - A-share market experienced fluctuations driven by policy dynamics and earnings expectations, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 1.74% weekly gain [2] - Daily average trading volume for the week reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous week [2][6] Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector rose by 3.97%, while the power equipment sector saw a decline of 7.73% [3] - The automotive sector increased by 4.87%, and the beauty care sector rose by 3.8%, indicating strong performance in certain industries [5] Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting a potential acceleration in policy implementation to boost market confidence [2] - The G20 meeting highlighted the importance of dialogue and policy coordination, which may enhance financial cooperation between China and the European Central Bank [1] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus remains on domestic demand sectors, particularly in building materials, smart home appliances, and the hospitality industry, which are expected to benefit from policy upgrades [2]

金融界12月15日消息本周末证监会、财政部罕见同时加班，传达学习重磅会议精神。 14日（周六）下午5点37分，证监会发布传达学习本周四中央经济工作会议精神通稿。证监会在通稿中 指出，这次中央经济工作会议对资本市场工作作出重要部署，充分体现了党中央对资本市场工作的高度 重视和殷切期望。 值得注意的是，在周一的政治局会议上，首次出现了"加强超常规逆周期调节"的字样，也被大部分投资 人解读为是会议主要超预期的内容之一。但是，中央经济工作会议的对外通稿中，没有重复这样的表 述，让部分投资人产生担忧，周五A股三大股指均以跌幅超过2%收盘，市场短期走势再次扑朔迷离。 尤其是周五央行、金管总局先后发声落实学习重磅会议精神后，市场各方都在关注着证监会和财政部的 动向，迫切等待着证监会和财政部的最新部署。 证监会、财政部罕见加班！ 如何落实中央经济工作会议精神？证监会此次强调要坚决落实"稳住楼市股市"重要要求，着力稳资金、 稳杠杆、稳预期，切实维护资本市场稳定；把握支持新质生产力发展这个着力点，增强发行上市制度包 容性、适应性，鼓励以产业整合升级为目的的并购重组，培育壮大耐心资本；坚决落实监管"长牙带 刺"、有棱有角，着力提升 ...