Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade tensions between China and the U.S., highlighting China's strengths and potential investment opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The trade war escalated rapidly, reaching a peak within ten days, which was unexpected for the U.S. administration [2][3] - China's swift response is attributed to its strong position in three areas: the stability of RMB assets, dominance in global supply chains, and technological advancements [2][11] Group 2: U.S. Economic Vulnerabilities - The trade conflict has led to significant volatility in global capital markets, impacting the U.S. economy's core—dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [7][19] - The traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is being challenged, as global investors are increasingly selling off dollar-denominated assets [7][19] Group 3: China's Supply Chain Strength - China currently holds a 35% share of the global supply chain, projected to rise to 45% by 2030, indicating its dominant position [8][12] - The imbalance in global trade dynamics has been exacerbated by the strengthening of China's supply chain, which contrasts with the declining influence of the dollar [8][12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in Chinese core assets during periods of heightened market volatility [9][21] - Gold is highlighted as a strong investment asset, with the current market conditions presenting a favorable buying opportunity [20][21] Group 5: Structural Economic Insights - The majority of U.S. consumer spending is on services, which are less connected to global trade, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less severe than anticipated [15][16] - The actual goods-related economy that interacts with global trade is approximately $6.2 trillion, with a significant portion controlled by U.S. multinational corporations [16][18] Group 6: Future Market Directions - The article suggests that strong stocks have already recovered from initial market reactions, and future investment opportunities may lie in sectors related to supply chain security and data communication [22]

" 中国 未来的 方略主要有几点 ：更加开放，更加平衡，更加市场化。" 以上是中国首席经济学家论坛理事 刘煜辉 在今 天（4月20日）宁波银行私人银行投资策略会中分享的 最新观点。 对于所有事件的分析，都要结合背景回到最底层的目标，去解构其行为逻辑。 "从逻辑上推演，我坚定相信，只有'东升西落'，中或最赢，没有其他结果。 " 刘煜辉用了近两个小时，将特朗普发动的这场仅仅一个星期就已经"到顶"的关税战进行了详细梳理。 "美联储代表的是犹太资本和金融资本利益，而犹太金融资本在西方意识形态中一定占据左翼，而不是 右翼。 所以，在左右翼资深对决的时代背景下，去看在美元资产遭到巨大抛售、美元信用受到危机时，美联储 仍然采取袖手旁观的态度，是可以理解的。" 从大背景来看，刘煜辉表示这是美西方一场史无前例的"党争"。 特朗普作为西方政治规则下的政治人物，其真实有效的政治时间可能只有一年半，因此， 他的第一性 目标是通过"关税战"向选票基本盘展现承诺，以及巩固权力，并在中选前证明他所代表的右翼势力在美 国权力系统中已经站稳脚跟。 但是，刘煜辉强调，真正决定社会走向的是其背后的资本意志。 因此，从第一性原理角度出发，最终还是要 ...

Group 1: Supply Chain Security as a Focus of Great Power Competition - The report highlights that supply chain security has become a focal point in the geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, with increased measures to weaken China's advantages in shipping and energy resources [4][7][13]. Group 2: Energy Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report details the vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain, emphasizing the high import dependency rates for various energy sources, such as crude oil (72%), liquefied natural gas (79%), and nickel (100%) [4][14][27]. - It suggests that the oil and gas sectors, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, are critical areas for short-term investment due to their exposure to supply chain risks [4][14][27]. Group 3: Metal Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report outlines the high import dependency for key metals, including iron ore (54%), copper (92.9%), and manganese (98%), indicating a significant reliance on foreign sources [4][43][52]. - It identifies potential investment opportunities in the metal sector, particularly in companies involved in the extraction and processing of these minerals, given the ongoing demand and supply chain challenges [4][43][52].

中新网上海4月7日电 题：上海浦东金桥：智能驾驶生态圈从"技术破局"走向"全球竞和" 中新网记者李佳佳 春日的午后，在上海浦东金桥智能网联汽车测试示范区，一辆自动驾驶车辆正平稳通过十字路口。车辆 上排布的传感器实时捕捉路人动态，算法瞬间完成路径规划，这看似寻常的场景，却凝聚着多年来上海 浦东金桥在构筑智能驾驶生态圈上的系统性突破。 "汽车对于金桥来讲，已是不折不扣的第一产业。从整车的研发、零部件的设计、研发、制造直至汽车 后市场，包括智能网联等，这里都具备发展的能力和条件。"上海市自贸区金桥管理局工新处处长庄勇 说。 春日的午 后，在上海浦东金桥智能网联汽车测试示范区，一辆自动驾驶车辆正在道路上平稳行驶。小马智行供图 "智能驾驶技术的提升最终挑战的是安全问题。"连晓刚说，面对芯片、传感器等关键元件的可靠性需 要，恩井选择从供应链标准破局，"我们正试图打通上下游供应链，重新提出适合智能驾驶要求的标准 验证体系，将安全指标嵌入硬件设计源头"。 比如自动尾翼控制系统，通过国产MCU芯片与冗余架构设计，在零下30℃至85℃极端环境下仍可保持 99.99%的响应精度。这种"技术+标准"的双向赋能，正推动金桥形成覆盖车规 ...

Group 1 - The first key point is the identification of two critical time points in the market: the first in early April related to external risks and the second around mid-year when the economic and policy cycles of China and the US may align again [1] - The second key point highlights that the technology sector, due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts, is expected to perform well in April and May [1] - The third key point discusses the potential for a fourth round of economic stimulus in China due to weakening US economic conditions and increased tariff pressures, which could lead to a significant market style shift [1] Group 2 - The fundamental performance of major Chinese companies listed in the MSCI index indicates that technology firms are exceeding profit expectations, which may support the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The report suggests that private sector-led AI investments are likely to accelerate, bolstering domestic macro demand [2] - Recent economic data shows positive signals in domestic fundamentals, with signs of stabilization in consumption [2] Group 3 - The changing liquidity environment is expected to lead to a rebalancing of market styles, focusing on sectors with stable or improving performance and free cash flow [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain security amid escalating trade conflicts, indicating a shift from tariff-based issues to supply chain concerns [3] Group 4 - The report notes that foreign capital still dominates the stock structure in Hong Kong, but the marginal pricing power of southbound funds is increasing, particularly in consumer and dividend sectors [4] - It highlights that technology and financial sectors still hold significant pricing power among foreign investors [4] Group 5 - The report discusses the impact of recent market volatility on risk appetite, with a focus on the importance of performance verification as earnings reports approach [5][6] - It indicates that the market is entering a phase where performance becomes more critical, leading to a potential reduction in risk appetite [6] Group 6 - The upcoming earnings season is expected to bring balance among technology, consumer, and red-chip stocks, with a focus on capital expenditure acceleration as a key driver [7] - The report highlights concerns over the slowdown in US tech capital expenditure while expressing confidence in domestic tech giants [7] Group 7 - The market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with short-term capital rotation increasing, but the underlying fundamentals are expected to drive deeper market differentiation [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors supported by policy benefits and those with high valuation attractiveness [8] Group 8 - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from consumption support policies and those related to price increases in resource products [12] - It maintains a positive outlook on technology trends, particularly in AI applications and domestic substitution [12]

Core Viewpoint - Former President Trump has called for the repeal of the CHIPS and Science Act, criticizing it as "meaningless" and suggesting that the funds should be redirected to reduce national debt. However, many Republican senators have stated that this proposal is unlikely to succeed in Congress and emphasized the act's importance for national security and economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of the CHIPS Act - Trump criticized the CHIPS and Science Act during a speech, claiming that despite the government providing substantial funding, there have been no significant results. He suggested that the funds, amounting to hundreds of billions, are wasted and should be used to reduce the national debt instead [2]. - Republican senators who previously supported the act responded to Trump's remarks, asserting that his views are unrealistic and contrary to U.S. interests [2][3]. Group 2: Importance of the CHIPS Act - Senator John Cornyn emphasized the necessity of rebuilding advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. for national security and economic development, stating that disruptions in the Asian supply chain could lead to an economic recession in the U.S. [3]. - Senator Thom Tillis pointed out that repealing the act would require strong bipartisan support, which is currently unlikely given the political landscape [4]. Group 3: Republican Senators' Reactions - Senator Todd Young expressed surprise at Trump's call to repeal the act, noting that he had previously received assurances from Trump's cabinet members about the act's core objectives being retained [5]. - Senator John Thune remarked that many Republicans had voted in favor of the act, indicating a disconnect between Trump's stance and the party's broader goals of revitalizing high-tech manufacturing in the U.S. [6].

以下文章来源于出海潜望 ，作者周月明 出海潜望 . 挖掘出海故事，助力企业全球化。来吧！一起去全世界逐浪 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜周月明 编辑｜苗正卿 题图｜视觉中国 墨西哥这两天又松了一口气。 3月6日，特朗普签署行政令，再一次推迟了对墨西哥和加拿大加征25%关税的政策，直至4月2日。而这已不是第一次。 早在2月初，特朗普下令加征关税仅仅过去两天，就曾宣布暂缓。若时间拉到更久以前，这种"狼来了"的故事还曾在特朗普第一个任期内上演：2019 年 5 月 30 日，特朗普宣布对墨西哥出口到美国的产品加征 25%的关税，原计划从 6 月 10 日开始逐步实施， 每月增加 5%。但在 6 月 7 日，墨西哥就 与美国达成协议，最终避免了关税加征。 "美国对墨西哥的关税政策更像是一种政治手段，主要是为了恐吓。" 在墨西哥深耕多年的洲讯跨境墨西哥负责人杨琨告诉虎嗅。或许到4月份时会再 一次推迟，不像对中国，关税大棒已实实在在落下，特朗普上任以来已加征20%。 虽然美国对墨西哥的加征政策一再推迟，但在墨西哥投资的企业已开始做出各种调整，以防万一。这其中包括大量中国企业。 近两年，墨西哥成为中国企业出海的热门目的地。据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rise of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, particularly focusing on Xidian Semiconductor Equipment (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. (referred to as Xidian), which has achieved significant milestones in the probe testing technology sector, breaking foreign monopolies and positioning itself as a leading player in the Chinese market [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xidian is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of semiconductor-specific equipment, with a focus on probe testing technology [2]. - The company is the first in mainland China to achieve industrial application of 12-inch wafer probe testing equipment, breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly [2][4]. - As of 2019, Xidian held a 13% market share in the mainland probe testing equipment market, ranking fourth overall and first among domestic manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Xidian has successfully developed and mass-produced 6-inch wafer probe testing equipment, which has been sold to major domestic semiconductor manufacturers [4]. - The company has mastered several core technologies, including high-precision fast-response large-stroke precision stepping technology and automatic needle alignment technology [6]. - Xidian's product range has expanded from manual to fully automatic probe testing equipment, covering sizes from 4 inches to 12 inches [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Xidian's revenue has shown rapid growth, with figures of 399 million yuan, 442 million yuan, 546 million yuan, and 335 million yuan from 2021 to the first nine months of 2024, driven by increased demand in the downstream industry [6]. - The company's revenue from probe testing equipment has consistently accounted for nearly 95% of its total revenue [5]. - The market share of Xidian in mainland China has increased from 19.98% in 2021 to 25.70% in 2023 [7]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The global semiconductor industry is undergoing a significant shift, with a notable portion of new semiconductor wafer plants being established in mainland China [8]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment market has substantial room for growth, with current localization rates of 16.4% for front-end equipment and 13.2% for back-end equipment [9]. - Xidian plans to raise 545 million yuan through its IPO to invest in R&D and expand its production capacity, aiming to enhance its market presence and product offerings [10].