Core Insights - The article discusses the interplay between geopolitical situations and policy movements, questioning whether gold can regain its upward momentum [1] - It highlights the importance of monitoring specific signals during the live analysis session conducted by trader Rinly [1] Geopolitical Factors - The current geopolitical landscape is influencing market dynamics, particularly in the gold sector [1] - Traders are advised to stay alert to developments that could impact gold prices [1] Policy Movements - Policy changes are also a significant factor affecting gold's performance [1] - The article suggests that understanding these policy shifts is crucial for predicting gold market trends [1] Trading Signals - The live analysis session aims to identify key signals that traders should focus on for potential trading opportunities in gold [1] - Real-time analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for making informed trading decisions [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer upward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong and volatile trend. The recent recovery in market risk appetite has put some pressure on gold prices, while silver has benefited from the commodity rebound and broken through to reach a new high since 2012. As the three - month tariff suspension deadline approaches, Trump's tariff policy will continue to dominate the market. With geopolitical tensions in regions such as Russia and Ukraine remaining high, gold prices are supported by the strong level of $3000, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended. After silver breaks through, it opens up upside potential. This week, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held in London, UK. Attention should be paid to whether it can release further easing signals [1] Other Key Information - The US Department of Justice has requested the court to extend the suspension period of the invalidation judgment of Trump's tariffs [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that it will exhaust measures to avoid hitting the debt ceiling between mid - August and the end of September [2] - The US Senate plans to introduce a major adjustment plan for the Trump tax reform bill this week [3] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US plan regarding the Iran nuclear deal is "unacceptable"; the next round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations will be held on Sunday [4]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is mixed, with gold expected to experience a correction while silver shows potential for strength due to recent commodity rebounds and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The expectation of a marginally accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support silver prices, with recommendations to maintain a bullish strategy in precious metals [1][2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold may face short-term corrections but still holds potential for upward movement, with support levels identified around $3300 to $3280 [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China have eased pessimism regarding the trade war, although uncertainty remains high in the macroeconomic environment [2] - Recent strong U.S. employment data has led to increased market speculation about a stronger dollar, which may negatively impact gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The gold-silver ratio has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential for silver to catch up after a period of divergence from gold prices [2]

周一（6月9日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅延续跌势后低位震荡，目前交投于3312美元附近。刚刚过去的一周，金价冲高回落，受地缘局势担忧等因素影响， 现货黄金在上周一（6月2日）曾上涨近3%，至3380附近，随后的几个交易日震荡运行，因为美国经济数据表现不佳，在上周四（6月6日）一度涨至3402美 元/盎司，但随着国际贸易局势传来乐观消息，金价开始回吐涨幅，由于非农数据强于市场预期，现货黄金上周五下跌1.22%，收报3311.86美元/盎司，周线 涨幅约0.65%。 美元兑其他主要货币上周五上涨0.47%，收报99.20，因为数据显示美国5月份就业增长好于预期，尽管增速比上月有所放缓，这表明美联储可能会等待更长 时间再降息。该因素也是上周五金价下跌的原因之一。美元一直受到特朗普总统的关税政策和与包括中国在内的贸易伙伴谈判前景的不确定性、美国参议院 在众议院通过赤字支出和税收法案后正在审议的法案以及近期经济数据轨迹的拖累。在包括就业数据在内的经济数据强于预期之后，市场开始扭转对美元的 一些空头仓位。 美国劳工部的数据显示，5月份雇主增加了13.9万个工作岗位，少于4月份的14.7万个，但超过了对经济学家进行的调查所预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

大宗商品展望 证券研究报告 2025.06.08 大宗商品 2025 下半年展望综述：一致 预期后的变局 郭朝辉 分析员 李林惠 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524060004 linhui.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部 冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外 金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市 场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于 2020 年全球疫情和 2022 年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能已经较为 充分。继特朗普政府在 4 月 23 日传递关税政策缓和信号1，再到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a bullish outlook despite some short-term adjustments, supported by technical indicators and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][8][9]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $3298.53 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3294.75, and peaked at $3402.97 before closing at $3310.90, marking a weekly increase of $18.97 or 0.58% [1][3]. - The weekly price volatility was $111.04, indicating significant market activity [1]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns initially boosted gold prices, but positive U.S. employment data on Friday reduced interest rate cut expectations, leading to a price decline [3][8]. - The market is currently influenced by mixed economic data, with the potential for further adjustments in gold prices due to upcoming inflation data and ongoing trade negotiations [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold remains above the 5-10 week moving averages and key support levels, indicating a potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above $3366 [3][11]. - The monthly chart shows a bullish trend despite recent volatility, with expectations for gold to maintain high levels or strengthen further in the coming years [11][9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations for prices to reach $3500 or higher, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [5][9]. - The market will closely monitor U.S. inflation data and its impact on interest rates, which could either support or pressure gold prices [6][8].

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，展望下半年，国内工业金属需求在建筑旺季过后，增长动能 或受到基建空间不足、光伏抢装逐步收尾、汽车家电等需求受以旧换新提振效率下降等方面的压力；海 外能源需求或也将面临欧美经济增长放缓和贸易摩擦下运输燃料和油品终端需求承压等不利局面。预计 今年处于供应过剩格局的商品品种数量增加。目前看，主要品种中或仅国内铝市场和美国天然气市场有 望保持短缺格局。在多数过剩格局下，该行认为价格超跌后的成本反馈和溢价重估可能成为下半年商品 市场面临的变局之二。 中金公司主要观点如下： 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于 意外变量的外部冲击。该行认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定 性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。 相较之下，该行认为铁矿石和国内生猪现货的溢价可能难以保持，或继续向成本探底。而对于已经跌破 或接近成本的农产品，随着美国新季种植面积调减，该行认为大豆成本折价或有望收窄，但玉米价格可 能继续跌至成本线下方 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复 是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧 烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于2020年全球疫情和2022年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能 已经较为充分。继特朗普政府在4月23日传递关税政策缓和信号[1]，再到5月12日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布[2]，关税不确定性似乎初步见顶，全 球经济衰退担忧缓和，商品价格和市场持仓的回补或均显示一致预期的修正进程已经开始。 一致预期后的变局可 能来自 于商品基本面的易变因素 展望下半年，贸易政策和地缘局势对商品市场的影响或将从预期到现实，而这本身也是不确定性从检验到修正的过程，不同商品基本面所面临的易变因素 可能带来预期差机会，成为一致预期后的市场变局 ...