Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, ending four consecutive months of negative growth, primarily due to the recovery in industrial product prices and the gradual effects of consumption promotion policies [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating continued weakness in domestic investment and export demand [1][3] - Positive changes were observed in previously competitive industries such as automotive and photovoltaic sectors, where prices began to stabilize and recover [1][4] Group 2 - The transition of CPI from negative to positive is attributed to reduced international input pressure and the effectiveness of domestic consumption promotion policies, alongside base effect considerations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high, indicating an increasing domestic demand influence on prices [3] - Despite the positive CPI movement, economists suggest that the core CPI remains in a low inflation environment, and significant changes in this trend are unlikely in the short term [3] Group 3 - The PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%, driven by seasonal price declines in certain raw material manufacturing sectors and increased green energy supply [3] - The automotive manufacturing sector, including both traditional and new energy vehicles, experienced a month-on-month price increase, with a notable narrowing of year-on-year price declines [4] - The Chinese government has introduced measures to support employment, indicating a focus on job stability alongside price monitoring, which includes increased unemployment insurance and expanded loan support for small and medium enterprises [4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1][2] - The increase in CPI is attributed to the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a narrowing decline from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in PPI is influenced by seasonal price drops in certain raw materials and the impact of high temperatures and rainfall on construction projects [2][3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting pressures in export-oriented industries [3] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - Experts suggest that macroeconomic policies should continue to promote domestic demand and improve supply-demand relationships to facilitate a reasonable price recovery [4] - The implementation of consumption-boosting measures, such as trade-in programs, is expected to support price levels in the second half of the year [4] - The potential for service consumption growth is anticipated to positively impact prices in sectors like dining, accommodation, and cultural tourism [4]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending four months of negative growth, primarily due to reduced external downward pressure and the effects of trade-in policies [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, reflecting weak domestic investment demand and export pressures [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, indicating that domestic demand is gradually driving price increases [6][7] Group 2: Economic Policy and Employment Measures - The State Council issued a notification to enhance employment support, focusing on stabilizing jobs, supporting enterprises, and promoting high-quality economic development [1][13] - The notification includes seven policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment, such as expanding loan support for job retention and increasing unemployment insurance refunds for small and medium-sized enterprises [13][14] - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be 86.4%, highlighting the importance of effective demand expansion [2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The automotive and photovoltaic industries have shown positive price changes, with the prices of complete vehicles and new energy vehicles increasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [12] - The prices of high-tech manufacturing sectors, such as integrated circuits and wearable devices, have also seen year-on-year increases, indicating a shift towards new economic drivers [11][12] - The construction and infrastructure sectors are facing challenges due to seasonal weather impacts and an oversupply of materials, contributing to a decline in PPI [10]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The marginal improvement in CPI is attributed to the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and the upward pressure on domestic refined oil prices due to external factors [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, although some industry prices showed signs of stabilization and recovery [5] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials and uncertainties in the international trade environment [5] - Certain sectors, such as the manufacturing of gasoline and new energy vehicles, saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The implementation of more proactive macro policies has led to continuous improvement in the economic climate for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, addressing supply-demand structural issues and boosting the development speed of certain consumer goods and equipment manufacturing industries [4] - The effects of consumption promotion policies have been evident, with prices of durable consumer goods, home textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The transition of the consumption market from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" is expected to further improve service consumption in culture and sports, driving a rebound in consumer prices [6]

国家统计局：6月份，CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨，CPI由降转涨主要受工业消费品价 格有所回升影响。 受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，6月PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力 实施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "rise", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with the core logic being that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The core logic is that recent stock market trading volume has decreased, indicating weakened market chasing sentiment and slower upward momentum of stock indices. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the need for favorable policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations, and the market is waiting for policy implementation from the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: rise; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; view reference: oscillation with a slight upward bias; core logic: policy - end positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: rise; reference view: oscillation with a slight upward bias. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated narrowly. The total stock market trading volume was 1227 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The recent decline in trading volume reflects weakened market chasing sentiment and slower upward momentum of stock indices. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the need for favorable policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations, and the market is waiting for policy implementation from the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [5].

Core Viewpoint - China has sufficient resources and methods to counter external adverse impacts and is confident in its ability to promote sustained and healthy economic development [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The government is implementing more proactive macro policies and advancing the strategy to expand domestic demand [1] - Special actions to boost consumption are being initiated to leverage the large market of over 1.4 billion people, which will continue to release significant demand [1] Group 2: International Cooperation - China plans to introduce more measures for autonomous and unilateral opening, strictly adhering to WTO principles and market rules [1] - The country aims to continue sharing development opportunities with other nations, contributing positive energy to the world [1]

Economic Overview - China's economy is showing resilience with a stable growth outlook, supported by proactive macro policies and a strong domestic demand [1][2] - Export growth in the first five months of the year was 6.0% in USD terms, surpassing last year's annual growth of 5.8% [1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q1 was 38.9%, higher than last year's 30.3% [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption is improving, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, compared to 3.5% for the entire previous year [2] - Key consumer sectors such as communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture saw growth rates exceeding 20% due to the "old-for-new" consumption policy [2] - Fixed asset investment also increased by 3.7% year-on-year in the same period, outpacing last year's 3.2% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with a record-high deficit ratio and significant expansion in special bonds and long-term special bonds [1][3] - The total fiscal space available for the second half of the year exceeds 7 trillion yuan, with ample room for supporting consumption, investment, and foreign trade [3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than further easing in the short term [2] Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Economic pressures are manageable, providing a window for structural reforms, including the promotion of a unified national market and the exit of outdated production capacity [3] - The government aims to transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a major consumer economy, with new policies such as annual childcare subsidies starting in 2025 [3] - Additional measures to boost consumption, including optimizing vacation systems and improving social security, are being actively implemented [3]

2025 年 7 月 7 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-07-07 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 7 月 8 日，美国关税暂停期到期。特朗普 4 月 2 日宣布对全球几十个国家输美产品征收所谓"对等关税"， 之后迫于压力暂缓 90 天执行。 7 月 9 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 6 月 CPI 和 PPI。 7 月 10 日 02:00，美联储公布货币政策会议纪要。 7 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 6 月金融统计数据报告、6 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、 6 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 7 月 12 日 00:00，美国农业部（USDA）将公布 USDA 月度供需报告。 此外，重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际贸易战和关税战、国际地缘政治局势、美国总统特朗普和美联储官 员讲话等因素对于期货市场的影响。 【本周热点前瞻】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].