Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, showing an inverted V-shaped trend. The upward movement was due to market concerns about the US tariff node on August 1st and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. However, positive trade signals from the US, Japan, Europe, and China reduced trade policy uncertainty, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring the gold price. Currently, the gold price is at a low level of oscillation since the second quarter, and the battle between bulls and bears at the $3300 mark can be observed [5][27]. - In the long term, since the second quarter, the gold price has been oscillating at a high level. Even the tense situation in the Middle East has not pushed the gold price to break through, indicating significant upward pressure. In the medium to long term, after the relaxation of US tariff policies and the easing of Sino-US relations, the market risk appetite has increased, the equity market has performed well, and the gold price has been under pressure, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to weaken. It is expected that the gold price will maintain an oscillating trend, and a straddle option combination can be considered. In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July and the latest US tariff policy on August 1st, which may impact the short-term market [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price [8]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 25 | July 18 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,338.50 | $3,355.50 | -0.51% | | COMEX Silver | $38.33 | $38.43 | -0.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 777.32 | 777.02 | 0.04% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,392.00 | 9,273.00 | 1.28% | | US Dollar Index | 97.67 | 98.47 | -0.82% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.18 | -0.18% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.96 | 2.03 | -0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | 6,296.79 | 1.46% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $65.07 | $67.30 | -3.31% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 87.11 | 87.33 | -0.25% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 82.76 | 83.79 | -1.23% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 957.09 | 943.63 | 13.46 | | iShare Gold ETF | 449.60 | 446.96 | 2.64 | [9] 2. Gold Price Maintains Oscillating Trend - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, corresponding to a bottoming-out and rebound of the US dollar index, while the US Treasury yield remained weak. Positive trade policy signals from the US, Japan, and Europe reduced the short-term safe-haven demand for gold [11]. - The US stock market remained strong last week, with high market risk appetite, which pressured the gold price [13]. 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been rising. As of July 22, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by 41,722 contracts, the short position by 1,799 contracts, and the net long position by 39,923 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [15]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has been climbing. In early June, the silver price rose significantly, with obvious ETF inflows, showing a combination of rising volume and price. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength [17]. - Last week, the silver price rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the New York silver price approached $40 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price reached 9,500 yuan per kilogram. As the gold price fell, the silver price also declined, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded slightly [20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - and long - term trends of the gold price and suggesting attention to relevant events and investment strategies [5][27].

Core Viewpoint - The announced US-EU trade agreement is expected to enhance market risk appetite by alleviating a significant tail risk previously concerning the market, indicating a shift from aggressive rhetoric to substantive trade cooperation [1] Market Impact - The trade agreement is likely to strengthen the euro, with significant upward potential anticipated for its exchange rate [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is bearish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways - bearish. The core logic is that the US has reached tariff agreements with other countries, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and pressure on gold prices [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is bullish, and the intraday view is sideways - bullish. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the recovery of the global macro - economy pushed up copper prices [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the gold price showed an inverted V - shaped trend. The New York gold price hit the $3450 mark in the first half of the week and then fell below $3350 in the second half [3] - **Core Logic**: Market concerns about the US tariff deadline on August 1st and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of July led to the early - week price increase. However, positive trade signals at the end of July reduced trade policy uncertainty, increased market risk appetite, and pressured gold prices. Currently, gold is at a low level since the second quarter, and the $3300 mark's long - short battle can be watched [3] Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, the copper price also rose first and then fell. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the copper price rebounded with the global macro - economic recovery. The Shanghai copper price hit the 80,000 yuan mark, and the London copper price approached $10,000. In the second half of the week, due to increased long - short divergence in the domestic market and strong willingness of copper bulls to close positions, the copper price decreased significantly [4] - **Core Logic**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker overseas copper prices may continue. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, inventory depletion has slowed down, and with the continuous improvement of macro - expectations, the futures price may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short battle at the 79,000 yuan mark of Shanghai copper [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].

Group 1 - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices ultimately closing lower after failing to stabilize above $3,400 per ounce following a bullish breakout. This reflects recent hesitation among gold bulls [1] - In the first two trading days of the week, spot gold prices surged by 2.4%, but the subsequent three days saw a cumulative decline of nearly 3%. This decline was primarily driven by positive developments in Trump’s trade negotiations, which boosted market risk appetite and diminished gold's safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next week, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decision after the July 29-30 meeting. The market perceives a negligible chance of a rate cut in July, with a 40% likelihood of maintaining rates in September, an increase from about 10% a month ago [3] - If Powell opens the door for a September rate cut citing reduced uncertainty from recent trade agreements, U.S. Treasury yields may drop, potentially allowing gold prices to rise. Conversely, if he avoids committing to a rate cut due to rising inflation data, gold prices may decline [3] Group 3 - The outlook for gold next week appears bearish, with prices unexpectedly continuing to decline on Friday, touching the previously mentioned 4-hour trend line at $3,335 before weakening further. The current trend is viewed as bearish without any signs of rebound [5] - The hourly chart shows a clear rotation between bullish and bearish trends, with the first three days exhibiting an upward trend channel, followed by a direct retraction that established a new downward channel. The $3,350 level is identified as a key point for continued bearish sentiment next week [6] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests shorting near $3,350, with a stop-loss at $3,360 and a target of $3,325, with further downside potential to $3,310 if the price breaks below these levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7325% and the 30-year yield at 1.9475%, both at year-high levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable change in market risk appetite is the core driver putting pressure on the bond market, with the stock market breaking key levels and the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3600 points, showing a weekly increase of 1.67% [2][3] - Commodity prices have surged, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 7% and polysilicon prices hitting new highs, which diminishes the relative attractiveness of bond assets [2][3] Group 2: Liquidity and Institutional Behavior - The liquidity situation has worsened since mid-July, with significant fluctuations in funding rates and the central bank's operations showing a net withdrawal of funds, leading to a spike in the 10-year treasury yield [2][4] - Institutional investors are accelerating withdrawals from the bond market, with redemption pressures on bond funds increasing significantly, and the net subscription index for public bond funds remaining negative since July 21, reaching a record single-day redemption of 29.2 on July 24 [4][5] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the future trajectory of the bond market, with some institutions cautious about the potential for further rate increases, while others believe yields are still at historical lows and may rise due to stable economic growth and improving inflation [5] - The current adjustment in the bond market is viewed as manageable, with the 10-year treasury yield rising approximately 7 basis points, which is still within a controllable range compared to historical adjustments [5]

Market Overview - Since the rebound began on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have increased by 16.05%, 19.26%, and 29.48% respectively as of July 25 [1] - The A-share financing balance has increased by 84.38 billion yuan since April 8, with a total of 140 billion yuan added to the market from financing and company buybacks [1][2] Financing and Investment Trends - As of July 24, the A-share financing balance reached 1.928 trillion yuan, marking a new high in over four months, with over 60% of trading days seeing an increase in financing balance [2] - The proportion of financing purchases in A-share trading volume exceeded 10% for four consecutive trading days from July 21 to 24, indicating strong market participation [2] - The top sectors for financing net purchases since April 8 include pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals, with net purchases of 15.06 billion yuan, 14.33 billion yuan, and 9.88 billion yuan respectively [2] Company Buybacks - A total of 836 companies have announced buybacks since April 8, with a total buyback amount of 54.24 billion yuan and 4.797 billion shares repurchased [3] - Leading companies in terms of buyback amounts include Kweichow Moutai, XCMG, and Midea Group, with buybacks of 3.603 billion yuan, 2.866 billion yuan, and 2.518 billion yuan respectively [3] Northbound Capital Inflows - Northbound capital holdings reached 2.29 trillion yuan by June 30, a 2.38% increase from the end of the first quarter, with significant investments in leading stocks like BYD and China Merchants Bank [4] - The increase in financing balance reflects improved confidence among retail and institutional investors, while company buybacks indicate positive business outlooks [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The total transaction amount on the "Dragon and Tiger List" reached 1.148 trillion yuan from April 8 to July 25, a year-on-year increase of 128.92% [5] - Institutions have shown a preference for the communications sector, while brokerage firms have favored the chemical raw materials sector [5][6] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will see a "sufficient total and differentiated structure" of incremental funds, with short-term reliance on leveraged funds and long-term dependence on policy dividends and industrial capital [7][8]

Group 1 - The A-share index has been on the rise since April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3605.73 points on July 24, 2023 [1] - Major broad-based indices have shown significant increases, with the North China 50 Index rising by 39.86% and other indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 also experiencing notable gains [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Fund indicates that structural risks are accumulating but no clear turning point has been observed; the market is currently in a main upward trend with strong risk appetite and capital support [2] - Recent meetings have released positive signals for expanding domestic demand and "anti-involution" policies, boosting market sentiment; upcoming policy changes may act as new catalysts for market performance [2] - Long-term views suggest that the trend of asset revaluation in China remains unchanged, supported by global capital rebalancing and accelerated industrial upgrades [2] - Great Wall Fund maintains a cautiously optimistic short-term outlook, suggesting that while the market may still be in an upward trend, defensive positioning is necessary to avoid excessive chasing of highs [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields, and then rebounded slightly after the release of weak US new home sales data. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the further decline of gold prices [3]. - The US economic fundamentals are mixed. The manufacturing and service industries in the US are developing differently in July, with manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and service PMI exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was better than expected, while new home sales in June were lower than market expectations. The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 2% as expected [6]. - In the long - term, gold is still bullish due to the risks in the tariff, geopolitical and monetary systems in 2025. However, the short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. For silver, it is expected to remain strong in the medium - to - long - term based on the bullish outlook for gold, and the current domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - China - EU relations are at a critical historical juncture, with more cooperation than competition. The EU is close to reaching a trade solution with the US, and has approved counter - tariff measures on $109 billion of US goods in case of negotiation breakdown [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged after eight consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, waiting for more clear signals on the EU - US trade relationship [2]. - The US economic data shows that in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), the number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was 217,000 (expected 226,000, previous 221,000), and new home sales in June were 627,000 (expected 650,000, previous 623,000) [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the decline [3]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real - estate data, the Fed's interest - rate expectations and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range is expected to be between $3,250 and $3,450 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term outlook is bearish, with short - term decline, medium - term consolidation, and intraday consolidation with a weak bias. The key factor is that the gradual reaching of US foreign tariff agreements leads to a rise in market risk appetite, which is negative for gold prices [1][3]. - **Copper**: Short - term outlook is bullish, with short - term and medium - term increases, and intraday consolidation with a strong bias. After the market digests the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - economies boosts copper prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: This week, the gold price first rose and then fell. New York gold once approached the $3450 mark, and faced strong technical resistance at this level in the second quarter. Yesterday, it maintained a weak trend and dropped to the $3350 mark [3]. - **Market News**: The EU and the US are about to reach a trade agreement with a 15% tariff on European imports. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan on the 22nd, with a 15% tariff on Japan and $550 billion of Japanese investment in the US. China's Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. As key countries reach or are close to reaching agreements with the US, market uncertainty decreases, and risk appetite rises, which is negative for gold [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the gold price will maintain a weak trend [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price first rose and then fell. Technically, LME copper faces some pressure at the $10,000 mark, and SHFE copper faces pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Macro - level**: Overseas, the implementation of the US foreign tariff policy has led to a recovery in market risk appetite. In China, the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, and the willingness of bulls to close positions has increased [4]. - **Industry - level**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, the futures price is strong in China and weak abroad. It is expected that the SHFE - LME ratio will continue to strengthen, and import profits will widen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark, and the support of the 10 - day moving average can be watched below [4].