Economic Data and Events - Key focus on economic events and data on July 1, including China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 09:45 [1] - The UK Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month change at 14:00 [1] - France's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 15:50 [1] - Germany's June Manufacturing PMI final value and seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 15:55 [1] - Eurozone's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:00 [1] - UK's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:30 [1] - Eurozone's June CPI at 17:00 [1] - US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45 [1] - US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job openings, and May construction spending month-on-month change at 22:00 [1] - API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 28 at 04:30 the next day [1]

Core Insights - In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, indicating a continuous improvement for two months, with the new orders index rising above 50% [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, showing stable expansion, while the comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, reflecting overall economic expansion [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the new orders index rising to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion after two months below 50% [1][2] - The production index for manufacturing was 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, showing stable expansion in production activities [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, remaining above the expansion threshold [2] - The construction industry showed a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity [2] Overall Economic Indicators - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.7%, reflecting a positive trend in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [2] - The new export orders index for manufacturing was 47.7%, showing a gradual recovery in exports, with a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [1]

Group 1 - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, indicating a recovery in both sectors [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, with production index at 51% and new orders index at 50.2% [1] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilization, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2] Group 2 - The construction industry saw a significant increase in business activity index to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising investment-related construction activities [2] - The recent stabilization in raw material purchasing prices and finished product sales prices indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, ending a three-month decline [2] - Despite a decline in business activity indices for sectors related to consumer travel, the market expectation index remains high at 56.0%, suggesting potential recovery in service-related industries as the summer consumption peak approaches [3]

经济景气水平总体保持扩张 "6月制造业内部更多领域生产经营活跃度提升，景气面显著扩大。其中新订单指数达50.2%，重回扩张 区间，表明市场需求止降回升，企业订单增加，预示着后续生产有望进一步提速。同时，制造业出口逐 步恢复，新出口订单指数连续两个月上升，展现出在全球贸易环境复杂的背景下，我国制造业产品的国 际竞争力不断增强。"申银万国期货金融期货研究部经理唐广华说。 伴随着经济增长动力的逐步释放，资本市场投资情绪也迎来回暖。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙告 诉期货日报记者，在地缘风险缓和以及政策持续发力背景下，近期资本市场投资者信心逐步回升，市场 向好的基础进一步夯实，流入市场的资金逐步增加。展望下半年，国内经济面将延续修复，A股市场行 情有望超出预期，值得期待。 唐广华认为，当前随着一揽子增量政策加力推出，以及已出台的存量政策效应逐步显现，我国经济景气 水平延续回升向好态势。后续随着增量政策的持续推动和落地，市场信心持续恢复，市场需求进一步增 长，制造业或继续保持扩张态势，建议重点关注政策实施效果和市场变化。 文韬也表示，预计下半年在没有大的外部冲击的情况下，随着政策组合的进一步发力，我国制造业将保 持稳中 ...

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil will enter a new round of price adjustment window [1] - Key economic data releases include China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone's June CPI [1][1] - Major central bank leaders will participate in a panel discussion [1] Group 2 - Various manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France, and the UK will be released [1][1] - The US will report on May JOLTs job openings and construction spending [1][1] - API crude oil inventory data will be released for the week ending June 28 [1]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 49.5% in May to 49.7%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 49.6% but still below seasonal levels[1] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while new orders index increased from 49.8% to 50.2%[3] - New export orders index saw a minor increase from 47.5% to 47.7%, remaining below seasonal averages[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing significant recovery[6] - Service sector index slightly declined to 50.1%, indicating mixed performance across industries[6] Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Both purchasing prices and factory prices showed signs of recovery, with raw material prices index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4%[7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies post July 9 may disrupt future export and production activities, necessitating stronger monetary and fiscal policies[2] Employment and Business Expectations - Employment index in manufacturing fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in labor market stability[3] - Business activity expectations index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52%, reflecting cautious outlook among manufacturers[3]

Core Viewpoint - The June PMI indicates a simultaneous expansion in supply and demand, along with a rebound in price indices, suggesting a positive marginal trend in the economy, supported by better-than-expected stock market performance [1][4]. Economic Indicators - In June, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same increase compared to the same period last year, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, although still below the critical line [2]. - The production index rose from 50.7 in May to 51 in June, reflecting strong manufacturing production intentions and accelerated production activities [3]. - The new orders index returned to the critical point, signaling a recovery in market demand, particularly towards the end of Q2, which is expected to positively impact growth in Q3 [3]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index both increased in June, indicating an improvement in manufacturing price levels, although a full recovery to expansion levels will take time [3]. Policy Outlook - As the market looks towards Q3, there is an increasing focus on incremental and reserve policies, particularly in fiscal policy, which is expected to maintain the issuance and utilization of long-term special government bonds and local government bonds to ensure adequate social financing [4]. - Fiscal spending is anticipated to expand earlier to avoid concentration in Q4, which would enhance the "multiplier effect" [4]. - The monetary policy is expected to continue its positive orientation, with potential room for lowering the reserve requirement ratio and considering the timely restart of government bond trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China showed signs of recovery in June, with the Manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index at 50.5%, and Composite PMI Output Index at 50.7%, indicating overall economic expansion [1][3]. Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing PMI improved month-on-month from 49.0% in April to 49.7% in June, indicating a gradual recovery despite remaining below the critical 50% threshold [3]. - In June, the Production Index was at 51%, and the New Orders Index rose to 50.2%, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below 50% [3]. - The easing of external pressures from US-China trade relations contributed to the stabilization of manufacturing activities, with market demand showing signs of recovery [3][4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 50.5% in June, reflecting continued expansion, although some sectors related to consumer travel saw a decline [10]. - The Business Activity Expectation Index stood at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service sector enterprises regarding future growth [11]. - Financial services showed robust activity, with the Business Activity Index and New Orders Index both exceeding 60%, suggesting increased financial support for the real economy [8]. Construction and Investment - The Construction Business Activity Index rose to 52.8% in June, with investment-related construction activities showing significant improvement [6]. - The ongoing implementation of special bonds for infrastructure projects is expected to stimulate further construction demand [7]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment is expected to improve in the second half of the year, driven by policy measures and a gradual recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1][13].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In June, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% from 49.5%, with new orders and purchasing indices returning above 50%[1] - The new orders index was at 50.2% (previously 49.8%), while the production index remained above 50% at 51.0%[1] - The purchasing quantity index increased to 50.2% from 47.6%, indicating improved supply-side conditions[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New export orders index stood at 47.7% (previously 47.5%), and the import index improved to 47.8% from 47.1%[1] - Raw material inventory index was at 48.0% (previously 47.4%), and finished goods inventory index was at 48.1% (previously 46.5%) indicating a decline in inventory levels[1] Price and Employment Trends - The purchasing price index was at 48.4% (previously 46.9%), while the factory price index decreased to 46.2% from 44.7%[1] - The employment index for manufacturing was at 47.9% (previously 48.1%), reflecting a slight decline in workforce levels[2] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - June's construction PMI was at 52.8% (previously 51.0%), and the services PMI was at 50.1% (previously 50.2%) indicating stable growth in these sectors[2] - New orders indices for construction and services were at 44.9% and 46.9% respectively, showing slight improvements[2] Industrial Performance Metrics - From January to May, industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed to 2.7% (previously 3.2%), while profits turned negative at -1.1% (previously 1.4%) for the same period[3] - In May, profits dropped by 9.1% year-on-year, a significant decline compared to the previous year's growth of 3.0%[3] Investment Recommendations - The rebound in new orders and purchasing indices suggests potential recovery, influenced by global uncertainties and preemptive actions by businesses[4] - The performance of price and employment indices may provide more significant signals for macroeconomic recovery[4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices such as the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all experiencing a rebound in June, indicating a positive trend in economic activity [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, continuing a two-month upward trend despite remaining below the critical 50% threshold [3]. - The production index for enterprises was at 51%, indicating stable expansion, while the new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The easing of external disturbances due to a temporary thaw in US-China trade relations has allowed the manufacturing sector to stabilize, with market demand showing signs of recovery [5][6]. Construction Sector - The construction industry business activity index reached 52.8% in June, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rise in investment-related construction activities [7]. - The rapid progress in infrastructure project construction is highlighted by the ongoing implementation of special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds, which are expected to stimulate further demand for infrastructure [9]. Financial Sector - The financial industry business activity index and new orders index both increased to over 60%, reflecting heightened supply and demand activities as the quarter ends, with financial support for the real economy continuing to strengthen [10]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5% in June, showing a slight increase, although sectors related to consumer travel experienced a decline in activity [11]. - Despite some short-term pullbacks, there is optimism regarding the upcoming summer consumption peak, with financial policies aimed at supporting service sectors expected to provide new momentum for growth [13].