Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "new consumption" in the context of the Chinese market, highlighting the blending of various consumer goods categories into a single investment theme, despite underlying economic challenges and the need for a coherent narrative to support this concept [2][4]. Group 1: New Consumption Concept - The term "new consumption" is used to describe a collection of consumer stocks that have performed well, but the underlying data suggests that overall consumption is still struggling [3][4]. - The article critiques the idea of categorizing all rising consumer stocks under "new consumption," arguing that it dilutes the true essence of what constitutes new consumer behavior [3][4]. - The focus on individual stock performance (alpha opportunities) is emphasized over sector-based investment strategies (beta opportunities), particularly in the consumer sector [5][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Insights - The article argues that the notion of "consumption downgrade" is misleading, as consumer behavior is influenced by psychological factors and social interactions rather than purely economic conditions [8][12]. - It identifies three psychological characteristics of consumer behavior: the expression of personal desires, social context, and lifestyle habits, which all contribute to consumption patterns [11][12]. - The concept of "value replacement" is introduced, where consumers seek lower-priced alternatives without sacrificing quality, exemplified by the rise of discount snack stores [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategy in Consumer Stocks - The article outlines four key requirements for researching consumer stocks, emphasizing the importance of understanding stock price movements and valuation [6]. - It suggests that stable growth companies in the consumer sector can achieve significant long-term returns, contrasting with the volatility often seen in tech stocks [5][6]. - The focus should be on identifying leading brands and major products that can drive individual stock performance, rather than relying solely on broader market trends [10][5]. Group 4: Trends in Consumer Spending - The article discusses the trend of interest-based consumption, where consumers are increasingly drawn to products that fulfill personal interests or emotional needs [20][19]. - It highlights the importance of "breaking the circle" for niche products to reach a broader audience, using the example of collectible items like blind boxes [21][20]. - The concept of marginal propensity to consume is explored, indicating that spending growth is often driven by specific demographic groups with higher willingness to spend [25][26]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Channel Evolution - The article notes that the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is undergoing significant changes due to the rise of new retail models, which are reshaping competition and brand dynamics [40]. - It emphasizes that successful brands must adapt to evolving consumer preferences and distribution channels to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing market [40][39]. - The discussion includes the impact of social media and digital marketing on consumer behavior and brand engagement, particularly for emerging products [30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of value investors in the face of market fluctuations, focusing on long-term potential rather than short-term noise [1] - Recent price declines in the liquor market are attributed to speculative behavior rather than genuine demand shifts, with expectations of recovery as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [2] - The stability of prices for older vintages of Moutai reflects their strong demand for consumption and collection, indicating a shift towards rational pricing in the market [4] Group 2 - The trend of consumers increasingly using Moutai in non-business settings highlights a shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on personal enjoyment and quality [6] - The overall liquor market is witnessing a concentration of demand towards premium brands, with Moutai benefiting from its established reputation and quality during industry adjustments [7] - The cultural products associated with Moutai are experiencing high demand, indicating a growing trend of consumers seeking personal fulfillment through collection and enjoyment [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "new consumption," which combines various consumer stocks that have shown price increases, rather than categorizing them by type. This approach reflects a deeper issue in the A-share market's investment mentality, focusing on themes and concepts rather than fundamental analysis [2][5]. Group 1: New Consumption Concept - The "new consumption" concept is a collection of consumer stocks that have performed well, but it lacks a coherent narrative, as many included categories do not fit the definition of new consumption [4][5]. - The article argues that the focus on "new consumption" is a result of a broader trend in the A-share market, where investment decisions are often driven by themes rather than the underlying fundamentals of individual companies [5][6]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - The article highlights that despite a general decline in consumer spending, certain sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles have shown growth, largely driven by policy support [3][12]. - It emphasizes that the notion of "consumption downgrade" is misleading; instead, it reflects a shift in consumer behavior influenced by psychological factors and economic conditions [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article outlines four key requirements for researching consumer stocks: stable growth, focus on leading companies, individual stock alpha opportunities, and long-term odds [9]. - It suggests that successful consumer stocks often exhibit a long-term growth trend, with prices potentially doubling every three years [8]. Group 4: Price Sensitivity and Consumer Behavior - The article discusses the importance of price sensitivity among consumers, noting that many are now more focused on value for money rather than simply upgrading their purchases [22][28]. - It introduces the concept of "value replacement," where consumers opt for lower-priced alternatives without sacrificing quality, which has become a cultural phenomenon rather than just an economic response [20][21]. Group 5: Emerging Trends in Consumption - The article identifies "interest consumption" or "self-indulgent consumption" as a growing trend, particularly among younger consumers who seek unique and personalized products [30][31]. - It also notes that products with high marginal consumption propensity are often linked to social media trends, which can lead to rapid popularity but may not sustain long-term loyalty [41][42]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Channel Evolution - The article highlights the transformation of retail channels, emphasizing that new retail models are replacing traditional supermarkets, significantly impacting the competitive landscape for consumer brands [57][58]. - It points out that the success of consumer products is increasingly tied to effective channel management and understanding consumer behavior, rather than merely relying on brand recognition [56].

在资本市场，以"三朵金花"为代表，包括宠物经济、医美化妆、疗愈经济、新饮品等行业或细分领域， 被统一称为"悦己消费"，即相关消费行为通常以满足消费者情感价值、个性化需求及自我提升为核心。 过去一年时间，"三朵金花"股价均实现翻倍甚至数倍增长，整个"悦己消费"也成为资本市场最火热的概 念。 每经评论员杜恒峰 在混杂着不解、怀疑、惊叹、遗憾的声音中，6月12日泡泡玛特盘中股价摸高至283.4港元，再创历史新 高，总市值一度突破3800亿港元；同为港股"三朵金花"的老铺黄金，收盘价上涨5.66%至914港元，总市 值1578亿港元，将周大福这样的老牌巨头甩在了身后；另一朵"金花"蜜雪集团收盘价也维持在历史高 位，总市值2023亿港元。 事实上，"悦己消费"也为企业摆脱"内卷式"竞争提供了新的思路，泡泡玛特不需要卷价格，蜜雪集团也 不是想要通过低价垄断新茶饮市场。正是对自身市场清晰的定位、对产品和服务的极致打磨，由此形成 的竞争力不仅仅适用于中国市场，也能在国际市场闯出一片天地。 契合年轻消费者需求、有增长、不内卷、有国际化潜力，这是"悦己消费"估值迭创新高的定价逻辑。消 费市场竞争残酷，消费者偏好、预算分配也随时在 ...

Core Insights - The emerging trend of "self-indulgent consumption" in the Chinese market is attracting attention from Japanese companies [1][5] - The second "Japan Sake Month" event in Shanghai showcased over 1,000 Japanese alcoholic products, indicating a growing interest in Japanese beverages among Chinese consumers [1][3] Industry Developments - The event featured 81 exhibitors and was organized by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), highlighting the importance of trade relations between Japan and China [1][3] - The event is now the largest Japanese sake trade fair in China, reflecting the increasing demand for Japanese alcoholic beverages [3] Market Opportunities - Japanese sake exports are projected to reach approximately 43.47 billion yen (around 2.09 billion RMB) in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 6.37% in export value [4] - China remains the largest market for Japanese sake exports, with an expected export value of about 11.68 billion yen in 2024 [4] Consumer Trends - Young Chinese consumers are increasingly willing to spend on emotional or experiential purchases, driving growth in sectors like pet economy and outdoor activities [5] - The trend of "self-indulgent consumption" is noted as a significant factor influencing purchasing decisions among young consumers [5] Strategic Initiatives - Japanese companies are adapting their products for the Chinese market by incorporating local elements and targeting younger demographics [4][5] - Shanghai Takashimaya has committed 100 million RMB to enhance its offerings in the Shanghai market, reflecting confidence in the local business environment [5] Bilateral Economic Relations - The interdependence between Japan and China in terms of product consumption and imports is emphasized, indicating potential for further economic cooperation [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights a shift in consumer behavior among young people in China, characterized by a blend of "refined poverty" and "emotional wealth," where individuals are willing to spend significantly on experiences while being frugal on everyday purchases [1] - The concept of "self-pleasure consumption" is gaining traction, with 46.28% of young consumers prioritizing personal enjoyment in their spending habits [1] - The article invites content creators to share their observations on new consumption trends and the evolution of consumer behavior leading into 2025 [1] Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly willing to spend on emotional value rather than just price, indicating a shift from "cost-effectiveness" to "emotional value" [2] - Small purchases, such as coffee and collectibles, are being made to enhance happiness, reflecting a trend towards seeking joy in everyday spending [2] - The rise of "micro-vacations" suggests a new necessity for escapism, indicating a change in how leisure is perceived and consumed [2] Group 2: New Consumption Categories and Scenarios - The article discusses the emergence of new consumption categories, such as health-focused beverages, which are defining contemporary youth culture [3] - There is a notable shift in consumption scenarios, moving from indoor fitness to outdoor activities like cycling and camping, showcasing a broader lifestyle change [3] - The role of technology, including AI and big data, in influencing purchasing decisions is examined, questioning whether it leads to increased spending or more precise buying [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights a shift in consumer behavior among young people in China, characterized by a blend of "refined poverty" and "emotional wealth," where individuals are willing to spend significantly on experiences while being frugal on everyday purchases [1] Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly prioritizing "self-pleasure" in their spending, with this category accounting for 46.28% of their consumption needs in 2024 [1] - The concept of "next level" consumption in 2025 indicates a more fragmented and conscious approach to spending, focusing on immediate gratification while also considering long-term value [1] Group 2: Event and Participation - The article invites content creators to share their observations on new consumption phenomena and thoughts on "2025 consumption" through video submissions, with a chance to win from a prize pool [2][3] - The event encourages discussions on why young people are willing to spend on emotional experiences rather than just price-value, highlighting the importance of happiness derived from small purchases [2] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Categories - The article discusses the notion that consumption downgrade does not equate to a decline in quality of life, emphasizing how to spend less while enjoying life [3] - It mentions emerging consumption categories and scenarios, such as health-focused beverages and outdoor activities, reflecting a shift in lifestyle choices among young consumers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of street photography as a new employment trend among young people in China, driven by the demand for personalized and shareable experiences in the tourism sector, reflecting a shift towards "emotional consumption" [3][13][15]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Many young individuals are transitioning from traditional jobs to street photography, which offers flexibility and aligns with their desire for self-expression and social sharing [22][23]. - The article highlights various backgrounds of photographers, including former engineers, fitness trainers, and salespeople, indicating a diverse workforce entering this field [10][12][20]. - The income from street photography can vary significantly, with some photographers earning between 200 to 2,000 yuan per day, depending on the season and location [10][12][19]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly engaging in "emotional consumption," seeking experiences that provide immediate gratification and social validation through platforms like social media [15][16]. - The trend of hiring photographers at tourist spots is particularly popular among young women and couples, who prefer professional photos over self-taken ones [14][15]. - The article notes that the demand for commercial photography services has surged, especially during peak tourist seasons, but has also faced fluctuations as consumer preferences evolve [19][22]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The street photography industry faces challenges such as competition, income instability, and a lack of professional protections like social security and labor contracts [23][24]. - Some tourist sites have begun to restrict commercial photography, which could impact the availability of work for street photographers [21][23]. - The article suggests that policy support and industry standards could help stabilize this emerging employment sector and improve working conditions for photographers [23][24].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the food and beverage industry, focusing on various segments including alcoholic beverages, dairy products, snacks, and health products. Key Points and Arguments Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, shows strong resilience despite price fluctuations due to alcohol bans and online activities. Leading companies maintain price stability through channel power and policy adjustments, warranting attention to marginal fundamental changes in baijiu [1][4] - Other alcoholic beverages like beer, yellow wine, and pre-mixed drinks also exhibit high gross margins, typically between 40% to 60% [5] - The market share of pre-mixed drinks, such as those from Baijiu Holdings, has increased despite fierce competition, currently reaching 80% to 90% [6] Dairy Products - The dairy industry faces challenges due to reduced demand for social visits during the pandemic, leading to a lack of consumption scenarios. An increase in dairy cow inventory has resulted in oversupply, with smaller brands capturing market share through lower prices [7] - Price wars are intensifying, with retail prices for fresh milk and yogurt declining since 2021. Major brands like Yili and Mengniu maintain high margins on premium products, but ordinary products see margins drop to 20%-30% [7] Snack Industry - The snack sector is evolving with the rise of offline snack chains and online platforms like Douyin, creating new opportunities. However, consumers are highly price-sensitive, leading to reduced willingness to pay premiums [8] - Companies with high industrial efficiency and low costs, such as Salted Fish and Three Squirrels, are gaining market share by focusing on cost-effectiveness [8][9] Health Products - The health product sector is competitive, with customers willing to pay premiums for innovative products. Brands with new formulations and strong marketing capabilities can achieve higher premiums, while traditional brands like Tongrentang face challenges due to limited innovation [12] Consumer Behavior and Pricing - Consumers exhibit a willingness to pay higher prices for premium products in both self-satisfying and social contexts. Brands in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, maintain high gross and net profit margins despite market fluctuations [4] - The willingness to pay for premium products is decreasing in the snack and health sectors, prompting leading companies to adapt their strategies [11] Investment Opportunities - Investment in the liquor sector is recommended, particularly in companies like Baijiu Holdings and Kweichow Moutai, which are currently undervalued [15] - The snack sector shows high growth potential, with companies like Wei Long and Salted Fish expected to maintain strong growth rates [15][16] - In the dairy sector, companies like New Dairy and Yili are highlighted for their innovative products and expected margin improvements [16] Emerging Trends - The pet economy is rapidly growing, with significant contributions from younger generations. Companies are expanding their presence in this market through new store openings and product offerings [17] - Health and personal care products are increasingly focusing on safety and health attributes, with brands like Weigao Medical leading in market share [18] Other Important Insights - The differentiation between "self-satisfying" (悦己消费) and "social" (悦人消费) consumption is emphasized, with the former relying on emotional needs and high-frequency repurchase, while the latter depends on cultural IP and seasonal demand [14][22] - Companies are encouraged to leverage technology and consumer trends to enhance user retention and product value [22]

6月9日，随着布鲁可、古茗和蜜雪集团被调入港股通标的生效，三只新消费个股均大涨，其中布鲁可上 涨达22.34%，总市值超过480亿港元，今年上市以来上涨76.37%。古茗和蜜雪集团均上涨超过4%，总市 值分别超650亿和超2000亿港元，上市以来上涨达176.5%和115.84%。 这一调整意味着内地投资者可以直接通过港股通机制投资这些新消费龙头，无需绕道香港市场，为这些 公司带来了增量资金的注入。 Wind数据显示，被调入港股通名单时间，布鲁可用了99个交易日，古茗用了79个交易日，而蜜雪集团 仅用了66个交易日。 深交所发布关于深港通下港股通标的调整的通知。因恒生综合中型股指数实施成份股调整，根据《深圳 证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有关规定，港股通标的证券名单发生调整，调入布鲁可(00325)、 古茗(01364)、蜜雪集团(02097)，自2025年06月09日起生效。 | 代码 | 简称 | 调整方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 00325 | 布鲁可 | 调入 | | 01364 | 古落 | 调入 | | 02097 | 蜜雪集团 | 调入 | ● 估值偏高 蜜雪集团的动态 ...