Group 1 - Recent surge in commodity prices, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days, lithium carbonate futures exceeding 70,000 yuan/ton, and coking coal and glass futures increasing by 20.26% and 14.44% respectively [1] - The price recovery indicates an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics, suggesting potential recovery in corporate profitability [1] - Key drivers of this price increase stem from ongoing policy initiatives aimed at promoting economic stability and growth, including measures to combat disorderly low-price competition and enhance domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The policies of "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are interrelated and mutually reinforcing, with each supporting the others [2] - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating a continuous release of consumption potential [2] - With policy support, commodities may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.87%, both reaching new highs for the year [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,000 stocks gaining [1] - The Hong Kong market also showed positive movement, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.68% and reaching above 25,000 points for the first time since February 2022, with a total trading volume of 263.01 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the A-share market is gradually transitioning to an incremental market, focusing on sectors with expected differences and potential consensus among investors [2] - Analysts from various institutions noted that the market is seeing a positive feedback loop with incremental capital inflow, particularly after the recent half-year report season [2] - Certain sectors such as electricity, copper, aluminum, and steel are gaining attention as defensive investments, while technology sectors like robotics, computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense are also attracting capital [2]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has shifted significantly, with strong enthusiasm for investment in sectors like water conservancy and power generation, as evidenced by the surge in related stocks following the announcement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station project [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and closed at a new yearly high, while the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed the peak from October 8, 2022, indicating a robust market recovery [1] - Historical data shows that the A-share market has rarely sustained above 3500 points, with only three instances in 2007, 2015, and 2021, suggesting that maintaining this level could attract more external capital [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is already in a technical bull market, with the Hang Seng Index up 24.6% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 25% year-to-date, indicating a strong performance compared to A-shares [2] - Recent trading volumes have increased, reaching 1.73 trillion yuan, which is an increase of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous week, suggesting growing investor interest [2] - Policies aimed at enhancing the long-term performance evaluation of state-owned insurance companies are expected to stabilize the market and attract more patient capital [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, aligning with market expectations [3] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates from September, which could significantly boost global risk appetite and influence China's monetary policy [3] - The upcoming important meeting at the end of July is anticipated to set the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year, focusing on "stabilizing growth" and "reducing competition" [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Environment**: The focus is shifting from actual growth to nominal growth, with an emphasis on "anti-involution" policies. Government investment is expected to effectively drive social investment, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project commencing, involving a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan [3][18]. - **Non-Banking Sector**: Incremental capital is entering the market, with a strong recommendation for the non-banking sector, particularly brokerage firms and insurance companies, as they are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and regulatory support [6][7]. - **Electronics**: The penetration of DDR5 technology is accelerating, driven by the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in AI PCB manufacturers due to rising demand for computing power [8]. - **Media**: The gaming industry remains optimistic despite recent adjustments, with opportunities in IP and advanced technology applications [9]. - **Food and Beverage**: The industry is entering a golden period for brand upgrades, particularly in the liquor sector, which is expected to recover from previous downturns [10]. - **Agriculture**: The price of yellow chickens may be nearing a bottom, while the pig farming sector is expected to stabilize under "anti-involution" policies [11]. - **Home Appliances**: The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted domestic sales, with a reported 32% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to June 2025 [12]. - **Textiles and Light Industry**: The textile manufacturing sector is recovering, with opportunities in high-performance materials and traditional clothing businesses [14]. - **Environmental Protection**: The exploration of RWA (Risk-Weighted Assets) in environmental assets is expected to enhance financing efficiency and optimize cash flow for companies in the sector [15]. - **New Energy**: Solid-state batteries are projected to achieve commercial application by 2027, with significant growth expected in the coming years [16][17]. - **Construction**: The construction sector is poised for growth with the launch of major projects and upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing the industry [19][21]. - **Coal**: Coal prices are on the rise due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for continued price increases in the second half of the year [20]. - **Building Materials**: A growth plan for the building materials sector is anticipated, with the Yarlung Tsangpo River project expected to drive demand for related materials [21]. - **Metals**: The implementation of a new growth plan is expected to support metal prices, particularly in the aluminum and steel sectors [22]. - **Public Utilities**: New pricing policies in Gansu are expected to enhance profitability for power generation companies [23]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategies**: The report suggests a three-pronged investment strategy focusing on economic cycle assets, growth sectors, and stable value assets, with a recommendation to increase exposure to sectors benefiting from long-term improvements [4][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the asymmetry between downside risks and upside potential in the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation [4][5]. - **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: - Non-banking financials are recommended due to expected recovery in performance and valuation [6][7]. - The electronics sector is advised for investment due to the growth in AI-related technologies [8]. - The media sector is seen as a stable investment due to ongoing demand for gaming and IP products [9]. - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its potential recovery and brand upgrades [10]. - The agriculture sector is recommended for its stabilization under new policies [11]. - Home appliances are expected to benefit from government policies and consumer demand [12]. Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Risk Factors**: The reports consistently mention various risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, and economic uncertainties that could impact market performance across sectors [4][5][20][22]. - **Technological Advancements**: The rapid development of solid-state battery technology and its implications for the automotive and energy sectors are emphasized, indicating a significant shift in energy storage solutions [16][17]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The impact of government policies on various sectors, particularly in terms of investment and operational efficiency, is a recurring theme, suggesting that regulatory changes could significantly influence market dynamics [3][4][5][19][23].

天风证券指出，从7月1日重要会议再提"反内卷"，到近期工信部重要点名十大重点行业"稳增长"，"反 内卷"逻辑或由点到面、全面开花。强政策预期下，市场情绪提振，周五夜盘大宗商品迎来普涨。钢铁 和有色是被点名的"十大重点行业"之首，工信部特意提到铜、铝、黄金三个子产业高质量发展，重视程 度可见一斑，商品端已提前演绎，务必重视权益端行情。 "反内卷"激发供给侧改革猜想，今日（7月21日）有色金属板块表现强势！雅化集团、盛和资源涨停， 华钰矿业涨超8%，天山铝业涨逾7%，北方稀土、神火股份等个股大幅跟涨。 热门ETF方面，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）震荡上扬，场内价格猛拉3.15%，斩 获日线3连阳，继续刷新年内高点（1.277元）。 拉长时间来看，有色龙头ETF（159876）自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨27.32%，大幅跑赢沪指 （14.96%）、沪深300（13.82%）等宽基指数。 数据来源：Wind，统计区间：2025.4.8-2025.7.21。注：中证有色金属指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020年，35.84%；2021年，35.89%；2022年，-19.22%；2 ...

周一（7月21日），A股市场全天高开高走，沪指、创业板指双双创年内新高。沪深两市全天成交额1.7 万亿元，较上个交易日放量1289亿元。大盘走强叠加业绩驱动，A股顶流券商ETF（512000）场内放量 涨逾1%日线3连阳，近5日连续吸金达5.95亿元。 盘面上，受供给端、需求端利好，大基建情绪引爆，化工、有色等周期股满屏涨停。揽尽有色金属行业 龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）震荡上扬，场内价格猛拉3.15%，斩获日线3连阳，继续刷新年内高点 （1.277元）。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）高开高走场内收涨2.71%，全天溢价放量， 或有资金进场布局。 | મ્દ્રિક | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159876 | 主 有色龙头ETF | 127 c | 3.15% | 588.55 F | | 516020 | 主 化工ETF | 0.644 c | 2.71% | 3650.30万 | | 516360 | 主 新材料ETF | 0.714 c | 1.56% | 277.01万 | | 5 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report In the near term, supported by the bullish market sentiment and the slight alleviation of supply - demand pressure, both the futures and spot markets have strengthened in resonance. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Logic - Last week, coal - coke futures prices first declined and then rose, with a further increase during the night session on Friday. On July 18, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials would be implemented, stimulating commodity prices to strengthen due to the steady - growth expectations [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the speculative demand for replenishment was concentratedly released. Coal resources were in short supply, and most pre - sale orders were signed for more than half a month. The pressure of high supply and high inventory on coal mines was significantly reduced. Last week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.929 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 6.153 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 276,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.391 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 tons [2]. - Demand: Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [2]

3000 8000 2000 策略观点 等待经济政策为市场定调 投资要点 本周 A 股延续上涨势头。本周主要股指继续全数上涨,其中创业 板指上涨 3.17%表现最佳,其余主要指数中代表权重蓝筹的上证指数 和上证 50 相对较弱,分别上涨 0.69%和 0.28%。风格方面,本周风格 层面出现分化,成长、消费和周期风格继续上涨,金融和稳定风格出 现回调。市值风格方面,本周大中小盘市值风格均有上涨,中盘和小 盘指数表现明显优于大盘指数。本周代表核心资产和成长龙头的茅指 数和宁组合亦有上涨,宁组合整周上涨 1.56%,茅指数上涨 2.29%。 个人投资者情绪下行,与指数走势背离。截至7月19日个人投 资者情绪指数7日移动平均数报 0.58%. 较 7月12日的9.40%明显下 大盘指数 2000 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子签 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email : huangziyin@cnpsec. com 近期研究报告 《红利研究(1):为什么是银行?终点 又在何处》 - 2025.07.14 降。虽然近两周Ａ股指数层面持续上行,但个人投资者情绪却持续走 低,这 ...

Group 1 - Fidelity Fund announced a change in leadership with Xiaoyi Helen Huang resigning as chairman on July 18, and Li Shaojie appointed as the new chairman [1] - Industrial Fund appointed Zhang Shunguo as the new supervisor on July 18, previously serving as vice president [2] - Central Huijin Asset increased its holdings in multiple broad-based ETFs, spending over 190 billion yuan in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Liu Jian was appointed as the deputy general manager of Tongtai Fund, having previously served as an assistant general manager [4] - Zhang Kun's fund holdings revealed changes in the top ten stocks, with JD Health and SF Holding entering the list, and increased positions in several liquor stocks [5] Group 3 - The ETF market saw a strong performance with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year, led by sectors such as cement, construction machinery, and steel [6] - The construction materials ETFs experienced significant gains, with some ETFs rising over 10% [7] Group 4 - Current prices for most construction materials are at historically low levels, with national average prices for high-standard cement down 31 yuan per ton year-on-year and 17 yuan month-on-month [8] - The industry is expected to improve due to stable growth policies and a better competitive landscape, making construction material ETFs a potential investment opportunity [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuation of the anti - involution market is the main macro - logical line for domestic commodity and stock market trading. Policy expectations under the current economic situation lead to the continuation of this market. The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project jointly strengthen the anti - involution market, causing a general rise in domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products [2][4]. - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges faced in the current industrial economy. The ideas for dealing with these challenges are stable growth and transformation, which are complementary. The stable growth is to consolidate the foundation, and the transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. The plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market, but the final implementation may not exceed expectations, and the market trend is expected to be tortuous with rapid rotation of hot sectors and varieties [6][8]. - For investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled and rapid price corrections should be guarded against when the market is extremely optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Event Introduction - On July 18, MIIT's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials would be implemented, and the specific plans would be released soon. On July 19, the start ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, and an expected annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. These two events jointly strengthened the anti - involution market, leading to a general rise in domestic - priced commodities [2]. Market Performance - Domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, witnessed a long - awaited general rise. Alumina once rose more than 8% during the session, leading the domestic commodities, and varieties such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, and caustic soda once rose more than 5% during the session. The table also shows the settlement price and price change rates of various commodities such as iron ore, rolled steel, and palm oil [2][3]. Economic Situation and Policy Expectations - From the second - quarter macro data, the overall economy has resilience but is weakening marginally. The real estate sector still drags down the economy, exports face challenges, and consumption plays a major role. The continuous negative growth of PPI for 33 months indicates an endogenous deflation risk in the Chinese economy, which forms a negative feedback loop. The market has strong policy expectations under this situation, and the anti - involution market continues [4]. MIIT's Work Plan - In the second half of the year, to maintain the stable operation and high - quality development of the industrial economy, MIIT will focus on two major actions. One is to implement a new round of stable growth actions, including printing stable growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The other is to implement intelligent and green transformation and upgrading actions, including printing digital transformation implementation plans for the automobile, machinery, and power equipment industries and green development outlines for the aviation and shipbuilding industries [5]. Policy Background and Ideas - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges in the current industrial economy, such as external uncertainties and industrial structural contradictions. The ideas are stable growth and transformation. Stable growth aims to consolidate the foundation, and transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. To implement these, the development environment needs to be optimized [6]. Policy Impact and Investment Strategy - The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market and strengthens investors' expectations. The start of the hydropower project makes up for the market's concerns about the lack of demand - side pull in the "supply - side reform". However, the final implementation of the plan may not exceed expectations, and the market trend will be tortuous. For investment, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the market fermentation, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [8].