Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight increase on August 7, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.15% [1] - As of 10:00 AM, the latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract was 119.54 yuan, up 0.20%, with a trading volume of 17,161 contracts and a total open interest of 100,808 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures also saw minor increases, with the 10-year bond up 0.07%, the 5-year bond up 0.06%, and the 2-year bond up 0.02% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,607 billion yuan, maintaining the bidding rate at 1.40% [1] - As of 4:30 PM the previous day, the yield on the 10-year government bond active coupon decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond active coupon decreased by 0.05 basis points to 1.9175% [1] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - Starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax [2] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from value-added tax until maturity, which may lead to an increase in forward yield expectations for bonds [2] - Despite the short-term impact of the tax policy, it is suggested that there will be opportunities to go long on long-term bonds, maintaining a bullish long-term outlook for the bond market [2] Group 4: Investment Products - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF is currently the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes [2] - This product allows investors to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations and can serve as a tool for adjusting portfolio duration or hedging equity positions [2] - In a low-interest-rate environment, this ETF is highlighted as a strong investment option for both cash management and portfolio adjustment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy on bond interest income, reinstating a 3% value-added tax (VAT) on newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, while maintaining tax exemptions for bonds issued before this date until maturity [1][2][4]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy creates a "new and old distinction," allowing existing public funds that invest in government bonds to retain significant tax advantages, as they continue to enjoy exemptions on interest income and capital gains [4][5]. - The tax exemption for existing bonds may lead to a "bond grabbing" trend, pushing down the interest rate curve as investors seek to acquire older bonds before the new tax takes effect [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated tax changes are expected to create trading opportunities in the bond market, particularly for existing government bonds, as the current yield on 10-year government bonds is around 1.7%, making the 3% tax impact significant [4][9]. - The bond market is currently experiencing a recovery in bond fund sizes, with a notable increase in the proportion of bonds held in various fund categories, indicating a shift towards longer durations to capture higher capital gains amid declining interest rates [7]. Fund Performance and Rankings - As of the end of Q2, the total net asset value of fixed-income assets held by public and asset management companies reached 10.75 trillion yuan, with notable growth in several funds, including Bosera Fund and E Fund, which ranked first and second respectively [5][6]. - The rankings of fixed-income asset sizes show significant movements, with several funds advancing in their positions compared to previous quarters, reflecting the competitive landscape in the bond fund market [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face short-term pressure due to recent market fluctuations, but the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of a downward trend in yields as the market stabilizes [8][9]. - The impact of the new tax policy on the bond market is viewed as a one-time adjustment, with future market movements likely influenced by fundamental economic conditions and monetary policy [9].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading to notable increases in both stock and commodity markets since July [2] - The GDP growth rate has remained robust, exceeding 5% for three consecutive quarters, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] - The bond market has shown a bearish trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a peak of 1.73%, an increase of 10 basis points from early July [1] Group 2 - The recent meetings have indicated a shift towards more moderate language regarding the "anti-involution" policies, suggesting a reliance on market-driven methods rather than strict regulatory measures [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy that will impose VAT on newly issued bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which aims to correct tax burden discrepancies and enhance fiscal revenue [3] - The impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with the focus shifting back to fundamental economic conditions [4] Group 3 - The economic landscape is characterized by a divergence in performance, with strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate [4] - The central bank has maintained a stable liquidity environment, effectively managing tax-related disruptions in July, and is expected to continue this trend in August [4] - The overall outlook for the bond market remains cautious, lacking strong upward momentum due to stable economic fundamentals and weakened expectations for significant monetary easing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell due to multiple factors, with the yield curve showing a flattening trend. The resumption of VAT on bonds has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced, which may drive the outsourcing demand of bank self - operations. Next week, fund rates are expected to remain stable, while the supply pressure of treasury bonds will increase. The current bond market strategy suggests maintaining a defensive stance and seizing structural opportunities [2][3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell. The fund - side was first loose and then tight, remaining generally loose. Important policy events were successively implemented, and the manufacturing PMI in July fell below the boom - bust line. Overall, yields of treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. For example, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.01BP, 2.65BP, and 2.35BP respectively, and the yield curve showed a flattening trend [2][12]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Fund - side - From July 28 to August 1, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 69.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 16,632.00 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 16,563.00 billion yuan maturing. The fund - side was stable across the month, and the fund rate center declined. The differences in fund costs between non - bank institutions and banks increased, and the term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y converged [23][24]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - From July 28 to August 1, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, while the net financing increased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit also decreased. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased [41][44]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Impact of Resuming VAT on the Bond Market - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. This has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced. The market impact after the implementation of the new policy needs to closely track the primary - market issuance [3][52]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook - After crossing the month, fund rates are expected to remain stable. Next week, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 4130.00 billion yuan, significantly higher than this week, and the supply pressure will increase [59][60]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy - For interest - rate bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds above 1.70% have allocation value, with 1.80% regarded as the upper - limit pressure. For credit bonds, seize the value re - evaluation opportunities brought by the resumption of VAT on interest - rate bonds. In the convertible bond market, focus on equity - balanced varieties. This week, pay attention to the primary - market issuance results of local government bonds on August 8, the central bank's liquidity injection through various tools in July, and inflation data [7][61]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - As of August 1, 2025, yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, and the term spread widened. The US dollar index rose, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased slightly. Gold and crude oil prices rose, while silver prices fell [63][68].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中美斯德哥尔摩举行经 贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种恢复征收增值税，新 老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。点位方面，信用利差冲高 回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现了最近数月20—30BP的利 差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保险、理财等负债稳定机构的 买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可 关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 ...

点位方面，信用利差冲高回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现 了最近数月20—30BP的利差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保 险、理财等负债稳定机构的买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。 综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 人民财讯8月4日电，中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中 美斯德哥尔摩举行经贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种 恢复征收增值税，新老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has stabilized after recent adjustments, influenced by the conclusion of the Central Political Bureau meeting and the US-China economic talks in Stockholm [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Ministry of Finance's decision to resume VAT collection on government bonds and local bonds may lead to a noticeable effect in the market next week, particularly favoring older bonds [1] - The current AAA medium-short bond credit spread has recovered to around 22 basis points, reflecting a relative stability within the recent 20-30 basis points fluctuation range [1] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Banks continue to exhibit a selling trend, while the buying power from stable liability institutions such as insurance and wealth management is increasing [1] - The strengthening of the allocation power may lead to reduced volatility in the bond market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a tendency for the bond market to strengthen in the short term, with attention on new directions that may arise from subsequent incremental news [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a situation of "all negative factors priced in" this week. After the high - level oscillation in the first half of the week, influenced by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, lack of unexpected policies in the Politburo meeting in July, significant corrections in the equity market and commodity prices, and poor July manufacturing PMI data, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield returned to around 1.7%. The news of resuming the collection of VAT on the interest income of some bonds on Friday afternoon pushed the 10 - year Treasury bond yield below 1.7% [2][6]. - The tax system for bond investment in China varies according to different bond types, investors, and income sources. The new tax policy exempts the old bonds of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds from VAT on interest income, while new bonds require banks and other institutional investors to pay 6.34% VAT and asset management products to pay 3.26% VAT [2][6]. - After the tax rate adjustment, institutions may prefer to hold old bonds. The new bond issuance may need to provide sufficient interest compensation. The actual yield of old bonds may be between 1.65% - 1.7%, and the new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [2][13]. - The central bank may support the policy adjustment to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates and reduce the investment and trading willingness of financial institutions. The finance department may aim to expand the tax source. The policy may increase the annual VAT revenue by up to 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion [2][3]. - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds, but the market may still face disturbances, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [2][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China's Bond Investment Tax System Varies by Bond Type, Investor, and Income Source - **VAT**: Interest income from Treasury bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit is exempt from VAT. For other bond types, the actual VAT rate for general legal entities is 6.34%, and for asset management products, it is 3.26%. Capital gains from most bonds are subject to VAT, but public funds are exempt. The actual VAT rate takes into account price - exclusive factors and additional taxes [2][6][7]. - **Income Tax**: Financial institutions' interest income from investing in Treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from income tax. Interest income from railway bonds is taxed at a reduced rate of 12.5%. Other bond interest income and capital gains are taxed at 25%. Contractual asset management products are not income tax payers, and the tax is borne by product holders. Personal investment in asset management products is currently tax - free, while enterprises and financial institutions are taxable. Public fund dividends are exempt from income tax [2][8]. - **Impact on Yield Difference**: Tax system differences are an important reason for the yield differences among different bond types in China. For example, the implied tax rate between Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds has an upper limit of 25% [9]. 3.2 Under the New Tax Policy, the Market's Rush for Old Bonds is Mainly Due to Different Tax Rates Among Institutions - **New Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, new - issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds' interest income will be subject to VAT, while old bonds' interest income remains tax - free [11]. - **Pricing of New and Old Bonds**: Assuming the fair - value yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is 1.7%, new bonds need to provide sufficient interest compensation. For asset management products, the new bond issuance rate only needs to reach 1.755% to be equivalent to old bonds, while for self - operated accounts, it needs to reach 1.808%. The actual new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [12][13]. - **Actual Situation**: Banks can invest in asset management products to avoid tax impacts, which may narrow the new - old bond spread. For short - duration bonds, the new bond yield may rise more. The demand for non - tax - adjusted bonds such as inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds may increase, but the positive impact is limited [14]. 3.3 The New Tax Policy Can Increase the Nominal Interest Rate of New Bonds, but Commercial Banks May Bear Higher Tax Costs - **Policy Motivation**: The central bank may support the policy to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates, and the finance department aims to expand the tax source [17]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In the first year of the policy implementation, the additional VAT revenue may be less than 36 billion. Eventually, the annual fiscal VAT revenue increase may be within 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion. The difference reflects the tax cost borne by banks and other financial institutions [3][19][21]. - **Future Policy Expectation**: There may be further adjustments to the tax system of asset management products, especially the tax - exemption policy for public fund dividends [22]. 3.4 After Repricing the Existing Bonds, the Bond Market May Still Show a Volatile Pattern - **Short - Term Market Trend**: The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the lack of incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July, limited inflation - driving ability of production - restriction policies, and the expected maintenance of a loose monetary policy [23]. - **Impact of New Tax Policy**: After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds as their yields may decline by 0 - 5BP. However, the market may still face disturbances such as rising bank financing costs and potential tax policy adjustments for public funds, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [24]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: A further decline in interest rates may require weaker fundamental data to force a policy shift. There is a possibility that the economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year, and if combined with central bank bond - buying or interest rate cuts, interest rates may reach new lows, which may occur in the second half of the third quarter [24].

Group 1 - The total bond issuance scale in Shaanxi province for the first half of the year was 187.09 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.64 billion [1] - As of the end of June, the outstanding bond scale in Shaanxi was 854.44 billion, with non-financial corporate credit bonds accounting for 775.55 billion [1] - The issuance scale of non-financial corporate credit bonds in the first half was 158.39 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27% [1] Group 2 - The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 55.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.04% [1] - The issuance scale of industrial bonds was 102.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.39% [1] - The issuance scale of financial bonds was 28.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.33% [1] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, Shaanxi issued 33 guaranteed bonds, with a total issuance scale of 14.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.24% [1] - The issuance of guaranteed urban investment bonds was 11, with a scale of 5.45 billion, accounting for 37.83% of the new guaranteed bond scale [2] - The issuance of guaranteed industrial bonds was 22, with a scale of 8.95 billion, accounting for 62.17% of the new guaranteed bond scale [2]