Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the implementation of a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on "precise drip irrigation" and "quantity-price coordination" to support the real economy and financial markets [3][13]. - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy tools, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, alongside targeted structural tools to support technological innovation and consumption upgrades [17][13]. - The financial regulatory authority proposed policies to stabilize the real estate market and enhance stock market liquidity, including expanding the white list of loans to 6.7 trillion yuan and optimizing insurance fund investment rules [14][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines a strategy of "reform + opening up + attracting long-term capital" to deepen capital market reforms and promote the entry of long-term funds, including the optimization of the registration system and easing merger and acquisition rules [15][16]. - The report suggests that the likelihood of a market rebound similar to the "924" rally is limited, with the current market sentiment and valuations at normal levels, indicating constrained upward potential in the short term [18][19]. - The recommendation includes focusing on low-volatility dividend stocks as a defensive base while targeting domestic demand recovery as an offensive strategy, suggesting a dynamic rebalancing approach to mitigate risks associated with single-style exposure [19].

Group 1 - The central bank's recent decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates is expected to have significant impacts on various sectors, particularly benefiting homebuyers with lower mortgage rates [3][4] - The reduction in the public housing loan interest rate by 0.25% allows first-time homebuyers to access rates below 3%, potentially saving substantial amounts over the life of a loan [3] - Increased liquidity of approximately 1 trillion yuan from the RRR cut is anticipated to invigorate the stock and real estate markets, with particular benefits expected for real estate and banking stocks [3][4] Group 2 - The decrease in interest rates for car loans and credit card installments is likely to stimulate consumer spending, although consumers should be cautious of potential hidden fees in promotional offers [4] - The employment market may see gradual improvements as companies find it easier to secure financing for expansion, but immediate job creation is not guaranteed [4] - Investment strategies should be diversified, with recommendations to consider government bonds and savings insurance products as alternatives to traditional savings accounts, which may see reduced interest rates [3][4]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月08日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 核心观点：5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 有关情况。发布会宣布全面+结构性"降准降息"、结构性工具扩容等多项措施，属于政治 局会议部署集中落地。降息效应涉及除存款外的大部分计息负债与生息资产。按照贷存联 动的规律，预计国有行新一轮存款降息窗口逐步打开。考虑到银行负债端降息效应较此前 政策更广泛，同时5月LPR潜在降幅较为温和，不排除国有行新一轮存款利率调整待LPR 累计降幅达到20bp以上才会启动。总体来看，本次政策组合对银行息差较为友好。 ➢ 政策组合直接覆盖的货币政策工具规模较大，对银行负债端成本具有积极影响。 全面降准0.5个百分点，将释放长期流动性1万亿元。现阶段法定存款准备金利率约为 1.62%，若全部用来置换高成本负债，如MLF利率约2%、同业存单加权平均利率约1.75% 等，则每年可节约成本13~38亿元（高成本负债利息支出 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a comprehensive and structural "RRR and interest rate cut" policy, which is expected to positively impact the cost of bank liabilities. The anticipated reduction in deposit rates is linked to the expected decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4]. - The policy measures are projected to release long-term liquidity of 1 trillion yuan through a 0.5 percentage point RRR cut, which could save banks between 1.3 billion to 3.8 billion yuan annually if used to replace high-cost liabilities [4]. - The report suggests that the impact of the policy on the funding side of banks will be stronger than on the investment side, leading to a more favorable outlook for bank interest margins [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the recent policy measures will have a significant impact on the funding costs for banks, with a potential annual interest income increase of 14.8 billion yuan if all funds are directed towards interest-earning assets [4]. - The anticipated decline in the LPR is expected to open a new window for deposit rate cuts among state-owned banks, although this may only occur after a cumulative LPR reduction of over 20 basis points [5]. - The overall sentiment is that the combination of these policies will support bank interest margins, with a lower pressure on net interest margins in 2025 compared to 2024 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued attention to state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks, as the valuation recovery logic is expected to persist due to stable dividends from major banks and reduced risks in key sectors like real estate [5]. - The report emphasizes that while retail asset risks are yet to be confirmed, overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, drawing parallels to previous cycles in manufacturing and real estate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% and the expected decrease in mortgage rates by 0.1% are seen as measures to stabilize the economy and the real estate market, rather than aggressive stimulus actions [4][34][40]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The RRR cut aims to increase the liquidity in the market, allowing banks to lend more, which can stimulate economic activity [14][15]. - This RRR adjustment is notable as it is the longest interval since the last cut, indicating a careful approach to monetary policy [19][22]. - The reduction in mortgage rates is a reflection of the broader monetary policy aimed at maintaining stability in the housing market [34][40]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Implications - The announcement includes support for a new financial development strategy aligned with the evolving real estate market [33]. - The reduction in the public housing loan interest rate from 2.85% to 2.6% is expected to lower the cost of home purchases for borrowers [35]. - The current mortgage rate of 3.6% and the reduced public loan rate suggest potential for further decreases in housing loan rates, which could stimulate the market [36][40]. Group 3: Structural Financial Support - The introduction of 300 billion yuan for technological innovation and 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans indicates a shift towards supporting emerging sectors [54][57]. - An increase of 300 billion yuan in loans for agriculture and small businesses highlights the focus on strengthening the domestic economy [63]. - The reduction of reserve requirements for auto finance companies to 0% demonstrates targeted support for the automotive industry, which is seen as a key growth area [66][69]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The overall monetary policy is designed to ensure economic growth and stability, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than abrupt changes [30][78]. - The measures taken are part of a larger strategy to adapt financial support to the needs of the economy, particularly in light of recent recovery signs [25][60]. - The emphasis on maintaining stability in the real estate market reflects a cautious approach to avoid overheating while still encouraging growth [41][42].

5月7日，"一行一局一会"集体发声，就"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况进行介绍，并发布了一系列金融政策。 这些政策将如何影响资本市场，普通投资者该如何投资？在新京报贝壳财经"'一行一局一会'打出政策组合拳"直播中，中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰、中国 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超对相关政策进行了解读。 在徐驰看来，此次政策在金融政策领域具有较高规格，延续了2024年9月政治局会议以来"预期管理"思路，政策层对资本市场以及稳定楼市、股市的关注度 再度上升。 杨超则认为，当前"稳市场"最重要的两个问题——房地产和消费内需，这次一揽子政策恰恰抓住了，并将政策向这两方面倾斜，对稳市场形成很强的助力。 谈组合拳 货币政策灵活性和力度增强，降准降息稳市场 当前，受海外关税等问题影响，我国经济增长依然存在压力。今年4月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）低于荣枯线，这表明我国制造业的活动有所收缩， 政策上有必要进行支持。同时，外部环境的变化和不确定性增加导致外需疲软，我国需要通过内需动力进行补充。提振内外部需求，降准降息均有必要。 从影响来看，降准降息将利好资本市场。央行的货币政策可为市场提供更多流动性，稳定市场预期，这有 ...

登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 分析师： 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, leading to a notable divergence in short-term and long-term bond yields in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, introducing a total of ten measures to stabilize growth [1]. - Following the announcement, the 1-year government bond yield decreased by 1.75 basis points to 1.445%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 2.45 basis points to 1.887% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market exhibited a clear divergence, with short-term rates continuing to decline due to improved liquidity from the policy changes, while long-term rates faced upward pressure from profit-taking sentiment [1][2]. - Market analysts noted that the short-term bond prices benefited from the liquidity injection, alleviating previous negative interest rate differentials, while long-term bonds were influenced by a shift in trading logic from "buying expectations" to "selling realities" [1]. Group 3: Historical Context and Expectations - Historical data indicates that after similar policy implementations, short-term bond yields typically decline, while long-term yields may show mixed results depending on macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [2]. - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered to 1.4%, with expectations that secondary market repo rates will gradually align with this figure, potentially easing the yield inversion between bonds and repo rates [2].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 8 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中国持续释放政策利好 通胀压力下美联储按兵不动 在 4 月美国新增非农就业人口大超预期，体现劳动力市场仍有韧性的背景下，5 月美联储利率会议继续按兵不动，声明表示经济前景有关的不确定性进一步增 加"，"并判定，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加。""新美联储通讯社" 称，美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。外交部回应中美经贸 高层会谈表示会谈是应美方请求举行的。昨日国新办"一揽子金融政策"中，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜同时宣布降准降息。金融监管总局提出八项举措全力巩固 经济回升向好的基本面。中国 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27%，央行连续六个 月增持黄金。欧洲方面表示美谈判失败，欧盟准备反制，将对波音飞机征收关税。 重点品种：股指、原油、铝 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指大幅高开，国防军工和银行板块领涨， 传媒板块领跌，全市成交额 1.51 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.76%，IF2505 上涨 0.55%，IC2505 上涨 0.25%，IM2505 上涨 0.22%。资金方面，5 月 6 日融资余额 增 ...