（文章来源：第一财经） 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，从货币政策看，为继续保持适度宽松的基调，并配合财政政策发力，预计 2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，可能实施降准降息一至两次，并且更加注重发挥结构性货币 政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费。但货币政策不会"大水漫灌"， 将注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部三方面的关系。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，在部署明年货币政策 时，会议称，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"。具体 而言，会议提出，要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科 技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Monetary Policy - The conference indicates that the main tone of "expansive fiscal + expansive monetary" will persist into 2026 [1] - There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, with expectations for moderate increases in these measures between the end of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [1] - Long-term liquidity tools will be employed to maintain a loose funding environment [1] - Structural tools will focus on key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to enhance policy precision [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the main theme of "expansive fiscal and monetary policy" will continue into 2026 [1][2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - It is expected that deposit and policy interest rates will further decline in 2026, with potential implementation of one to two rounds of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to direct financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation, green development, and boosting consumption [1][2] - The conference highlighted the importance of enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, integrating various economic and non-economic policies into a unified assessment [2] - The year 2026 is seen as a starting point for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a more proactive macro policy combination and forward-looking structural reforms expected to support a stable economic start [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect failed again, with both the stock and bond markets rising and falling together. Long-term interest rates fluctuated sharply between the "reality of loose money" and the "frustration of strong expectations," and the oversold of ultra-long-duration assets reflected the crowding of market funds and the fragility of market sentiment [3][91]. - In the last four trading weeks of the year, the fact that the "sales new rules" have not fully "landed" remains the main market concern, but the approaching important meetings have restored the "loose money" expectation. The focus of market gaming may still be the emotional fluctuations caused by marginal policy changes [3][92]. - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left-side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - On December 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multi - price - winning bidder - selected买断式逆回购 operation. The net investment of the central bank in treasury bonds in November was 5 billion yuan, far lower than the market's relatively optimistic expectation of 100 billion yuan. On December 5, 2025, six major banks stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [6][9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From December 1 to 5, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of - 84.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the basic currency will have a maturity withdrawal of 66.38 billion yuan from December 8 to 12, 2025. At the beginning of the month, the fund market was generally loose, and DR001 fell below 1.3% for the first time this year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit last week was 495.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 47.1 billion yuan, an increase of 289.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week [25][31][34]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of 128.844 billion yuan. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared with the average values from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 2.29 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [38][44][48]. - In the secondary market, at the beginning of the month, the short - term interest rates were stable, while the ultra - long - term interest rates continued to be affected by market noise and increased significantly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.01BP, - 1.46BP, 1.39BP, 0.17BP, 0.68BP, and 7.20BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread increased from 43.95BP to 44.64BP. The yields of the same - term CDB bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y CDB bond yield spread increased from 34.94BP to 37.66BP. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds increased slightly [51]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale was generally stable due to the relatively loose fund market. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds within 5 years and local bonds within 10 years; rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds over 5 years; insurance companies continued to prefer local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds were the main sellers last week [68][73]. - In October 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.77%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from September. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in October 2025 were about 110.31%, 191.29%, and 132.17% respectively [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 2.47% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 5.02% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week, and the South China Glass Index decreased by 4.70% week - on - week. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 9.92% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.31% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.09% and 1.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.07 last week [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left - side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54% to 3924.08 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.39% to 13329.99 points, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for the upcoming year, which is expected to support the resilience of the A-share market and maintain a slow bull trend [1] - The fiscal deficit rate for next year is projected to be no less than 4% of GDP, with fiscal policies continuing to play a crucial role in stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 2 - The yield on long-term bonds has seen a significant increase, with the active bond 2500006 rising over 10 basis points, leading to a slight pullback in the ten-year government bond ETF [2] - The current ten-year government bond yield is at the upper end of the central bank's acceptable range, and a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions is anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins [2] - Investors are advised to consider diversifying their portfolios by including the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) to enhance stability [2] Group 3 - The computing power sector showed strong performance, with the AI ETF (159388) rising by 5.51% and the communication ETF (515880) increasing by 5.49%, reflecting ongoing growth in the industry [3] - Google's full-stack AI ecosystem is advancing, with expectations for increased shipments of Google TPU, which is likely to drive overall demand for computing power [3] - The market anticipates that the shipment volume of 1.6T optical modules will reach 20-30 million by 2026, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the future [3]

核心观点 如何理解流动性投放"收短放长"？一度引发债券市场预期混乱的还有《金融时报》于12月3日发表的《收短放长 央行"组合拳"呵护流动性》，由于本文发 表于3日晚间，对利率市场的影响迟至4日和5日显现，然而此"收短放长"并非10年前的含义。2016年由于通胀率回升、经济增长在出口和地产双轮驱动下 稳中向好，货币政策开始拉长资金投放期限、抬升资金成本、引导短端资金利率上行，以达到抑制资产泡沫、金融防风险的目的，这一操作风格延续至 2018年，但是2025年11月以来的"收短放长"显然与近乎10年前的操作并不同义。 2025年以来，人民银行构建起"逆回购调节短期流动性、MLF和买断式逆回购调节中短期流动性、降准调节长期流动性、国债买卖做有效补充"的流动性期 限框架，在这一更加科学稳健的框架体系下，货币政策会根据流动性供需情形进行不同期限的工具搭配。 核心观点 货币政策体系"科学稳健"不等于货币政策立场"稳健"。2025年12月4日中国人民银行行长潘功胜在《金融时报》上发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政 策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系》，其中提及"要始终保持货币政策的稳健性"，债券市场敏锐捕捉到这一信号并将其 ...

Group 1 - The 10Y government bond yield remained stable compared to last week, while the 30Y government bond yield increased by nearly 7 basis points [1] - The 30-year government bond futures have erased all gains since last year's "moderately loose monetary policy" and have even incurred losses, indicating that "super long bonds" may actually mean "super debt repayment" [1] - Various bond funds, particularly those heavily invested in 30Y government bonds, have experienced significant losses over the past six months, with declines ranging from -6.13% to -7.99% [1] Group 2 - Recent declines in the bond market, especially for long-term 30-year bonds, have led to a sentiment of despair among investors, with some fund managers reportedly facing severe stress [2][3] - There is a prevailing sentiment among investors that the market may not align with the predictions of a bullish stock market in 2026, suggesting a potential disconnect between expectations and reality [6][7] - The future market trajectory remains uncertain, with possibilities of fluctuations, but there is an underlying optimism about overcoming challenges and achieving higher goals [9]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant decline over the past three days, with a notable drop in trading volume and a strong sell-off in individual stocks, leading to heightened panic among investors [1][2] - The index closed at 3875 points, remaining above the critical support level of 3850 points, indicating potential for stabilization and possible upward movement if it can hold above this level [2] - There is a lack of major positive news or significant capital inflow, contributing to the current market conditions, and investors are awaiting important upcoming meetings that may influence market direction, such as potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The focus for tomorrow's market performance is on the 3900-point level, with expectations for a potential rebound after the recent sell-off, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook [2] - Investors are advised to adopt a patient and disciplined approach, avoiding impulsive trading behaviors and maintaining a long-term perspective to capitalize on future opportunities [4]

Group 1 - Henan Province plans to issue a total of 30 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds for 36 projects [1] - The issuance of 114.7563 billion yuan in local bonds includes fixed-rate bonds [1] - The first batch of land reserve special bonds is part of a broader strategy to enhance local infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Chongqing Bank modified its bid for the "25 Weinan City Investment MTN001" bond, reducing the subscription rate from 3% to 2.5% [3] - The initial subscription amount was 1 billion yuan, which was later reduced to 500 million yuan [3] - This change occurred just before the subscription period ended, indicating potential market volatility [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [4] - Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need to enhance the role of policy interest rates [4] - The aim is to improve the transmission of interest rates from central bank policies to market rates [4] Group 4 - Hubei Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission plans to explore professional integration of different levels of enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The focus will be on optimizing the layout and management of state-owned enterprises [7] - The initiative aims to improve the efficiency of state capital operations [7] Group 5 - The first housing voucher for guaranteed housing in Guangzhou Huangpu has been successfully exchanged, valued at 3.429 million yuan [8] - This voucher can be used to purchase properties in designated projects by December 30, 2025 [8] - The program aims to support homeowners in securing housing amid ongoing market challenges [8] Group 6 - Henan Energy Group completed the issuance of a 5 billion yuan short-term financing bond at a rate of 2.30% [9] - The funds raised will be used to repay interest-bearing debts [9] - The bond is backed by a full unconditional guarantee from China Pingmei Shenma Group [9] Group 7 - China Pingmei Shenma Group plans to issue 10 billion yuan in medium-term notes to repay interest-bearing debts [10] - The issuance will be divided into two tranches, with a total of 7 billion yuan for a 3-year term and 3 billion yuan for a 5-year term [10] - The funds are intended to strengthen the company's financial position [10] Group 8 - Xinyang Investment Group has received approval for a 10 billion yuan corporate bond issuance from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [11] - The bond is rated AA+ with a stable outlook [11] - The issuance aims to attract professional investors [11] Group 9 - Xuchang Weiwu Industrial Investment Group's 5 billion yuan corporate bond has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [12] - The bond is rated AA with a stable outlook [12] - The issuance is part of the company's strategy to enhance its capital structure [12] Group 10 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue two types of book-entry discount treasury bonds totaling 100 billion yuan [13] - The bonds will have terms of 63 days and 91 days, with competitive bidding for 400 billion yuan and 600 billion yuan respectively [13] - This issuance is aimed at managing government financing needs [13] Group 11 - The appointment of Yin Chunhua and Kang Shuxia as chairman and general manager of Henan Zhongyu International Port Group has been announced [14] - This leadership change is part of a broader strategy to enhance operational efficiency [14] Group 12 - The total asset transfer of 9,470 million yuan to Gongyi Industrial Investment Development Co., Ltd. has been approved [16] - The assets include stakes in various companies and real estate [16] - This transfer is expected to optimize asset management within the company [16] Group 13 - Country Garden's debt restructuring plan for nine bonds totaling over 13.8 billion yuan has been approved by creditors [16] - This restructuring is part of the company's efforts to manage its financial obligations [16] - The approval indicates a potential stabilization in the company's financial situation [16] Group 14 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a written warning to Water Development Group for violations in information disclosure [17] - The company failed to accurately disclose financial information and timely report significant borrowing [17] - This warning highlights the importance of compliance in financial reporting [17] Group 15 - The outlook for monetary policy in 2026 suggests 2-3 potential rate cuts and increased use of structural tools [19][20] - The focus will be on maintaining a low-interest environment to support economic growth [19][20] - Structural monetary policy tools will target key sectors such as consumption and technology [19][20]

内容提要 文章分析了2018年以来央行降准降息的背景特征，认为经济增长（GDP增速达标情况）、金融稳定（股市表现）对降准降息节奏影响较大，且降准作为中 长期流动性投放工具存在一定的周期性，通胀和汇率等因素对我国降准降息的影响相对有限。 2018年以来，我国进入降准降息周期，大行（中小行）的法定存款准备金率从2018年高点17%（15%）下调到目前的9%（6%），7天期逆回购利率从2018年 高点2.55%降至目前的1.4%。2025年，央行坚持"适度宽松"的货币政策基调，美联储重启降息周期，资本市场则时刻关注我国货币政策走向。本文整理近年 来央行降准降息时货币政策主要目标（经济增速、通胀、国际收支、金融稳定等）所处的状态，分析货币政策目标触发降准降息有无规律可循，为判断货币 政策走向提供参考。 一、经济增速不高于目标值可能是降息的必要条件 2018年以来7天期逆回购利率共下调10次，合计下调1.15个百分点，平均每次下调的时间间隔为7.2个月，最长间隔超过21个月，最短则连续两个月降息。 图1 GDP增速缺口和降息 数据来源：同花顺 这10次降息里，8次降息当季GDP增速低于或等于当年目标值，但有两次例外。一 ...