Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales for August showed a strong performance with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [2][16]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, while core inflation remains at 3.1% [2][16]. - China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts this year and one in the next year, reflecting a relatively hawkish policy path [1][4]. - The recent rate cut has led to increased volatility in gold and silver prices, with market participants reacting to the Fed's decisions and economic indicators [2][16]. - The market is observing the impact of trade negotiations and the ongoing concerns regarding inflation from tariffs, which are influencing gold prices positively in the long term [2][17]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, prices have decreased by 0.84%, with tight supply conditions for concentrates and high growth in smelting output [3][18]. - The steel market is experiencing stable profitability, with iron and steel production recovering, while steel inventories are accumulating [22][23]. - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with soybean planting area increased but production estimates lowered, leading to a neutral to bearish outlook for soybean prices [25]. Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to be officially released next year [7]. - The National Cybersecurity Administration emphasizes the need for leading enterprises to focus on key technology breakthroughs, particularly in chip development [5]. Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The crude oil market is adjusting production levels in response to stable global economic growth and favorable market fundamentals [11]. - The lithium carbonate supply is expected to see a slight increase, while demand for ternary materials is projected to decline, indicating potential price pressures in the lithium market [20]. - The rubber market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations due to improved supply conditions and seasonal demand increases [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant strength recently, driven by multiple favorable factors, including low valuations, progress in US-China trade negotiations, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, accelerated advancements in AI, and the relative scarcity of assets compared to A-shares [2][5][6]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,908.39, up 469.88 points or 1.78%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index surged over 4%, reaching a nearly four-year high [4]. - Notable stock performances included SenseTime and Baidu, both rising over 15%, and Alibaba increasing by 5.28%, marking its highest level since October 2021 with a market capitalization returning to HKD 3 trillion [2]. Factors Driving Market Recovery - External environment disturbances have decreased, with smooth progress in US-China trade talks and reduced geopolitical risks, enhancing risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks [7]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which could lower the risk-free rate and support liquidity in the Hong Kong market [7]. - Accelerated AI advancements have been reported by leading internet companies, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in AI progress and boosting market sentiment [7]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Despite recent gains leading to valuation recovery, Hong Kong stocks still present attractive investment opportunities, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, which remain undervalued [15][16]. - The Hang Seng Index's current price-to-earnings ratio is considered low compared to other major global indices, indicating potential for further investment [8][16]. - The anticipated return of funds due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could attract more overseas capital into the Hong Kong market, enhancing its appeal [8]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch in the Hong Kong market include the innovative pharmaceutical industry, new energy, automotive, and technology sectors, particularly those related to AI and internet services [16][17]. - Historical data suggests that sectors such as semiconductors, automotive parts, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology tend to perform well in the 12 months following interest rate cuts, providing a reference for current investment strategies [17].

（原标题：时报图说｜历次降息周期 A股表现如何？） ...

【导读】美联储即将降息 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，真的要无眠了！美联储要降息（凌晨2点），泰勒要加班！ 先简单看看目前海外市场的表现。 美股分化 9月17日晚间，临近美联储降息关键节点，美股三大指数走势分化，道指涨超300点，纳指跳水跌约0.5%，标普500指数微跌。 经济学家大多预计，官员们会在"点阵图"中为今年预留两次降息，与6月预测一致。这意味着本周之后今年或仅有一次降息，落在10月或 12月。 尽管"意外"空间不小，但期权交易显示，市场押注这次反应将比平常更平稳。摩根大通的Andrew Tyler表示，最可能的情形是降息25个基 点：只要鲍威尔偏鸽，并释放循序渐进的降息信号，标普500指数或将上涨0.5%~1%。 | 九月美联储会议情景 | 可能性 | 标准普尔500指数反应 | | --- | --- | --- | | 如果美联储降息 0.50% | 7.5% | 下跌 1.5% 至上涨 1.5% | | 鸽派降息0.25% | 47.5% | 上涨0.5%至1% | | 鹰派降息0.25% | 40.0% | 持平至下降0.5% | | 如果美联储继续暂停 | 4.0% | 下降 ...

时报图说 设计:李 雄 型 北安 联储切出版 次降息周期 股長要机如LP 时间 美国联邦基金目标利率上限(%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1991 降息 18 次 1990/07-1992/09 1992 累计幅度 525 个基点 降息期间 沪指 +653.58% 1993 (A股设立初期,涨幅不具有参考性) 1994 1995 1995/07-1996/01 降息 3 次 1996 累计幅度 /5个基点 降息期间 沪指 -15.52% 1997 1998 1000/00 1000/11 1770/U7-1770/ II 障局 U 次 1999 累计幅度 5 个基点 降息期间 沪指 +4.91% 2000 互联网泡沫破灭 "9·11"恐怖袭击事件 2001 降息 ||次 2001/01-2001/12_ 累计幅度 475个基点 2002 降息期间 沪指 -20.35% 2003 2002/11-2003/06 降息 2 次 累计幅度 75个基点 2004 降息期间 沪指 -3.60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007/09-2008/12 次贷危机 2009 全球金融危机 降息 10 ...

时报图说 联储如果后 次降息周期 投表 2017- 2018 降息 3 次 2019 累计幅度 75 个基点 2019/08-2019/10 降息期间 沪指 -0.12% 2020 2020/03 新冠疫情 降息 次 累计幅度 150 个基点 2021 降息期间 沪指-6.12% 2022 2023 降息 次 2024 累计幅度 UU 个基点 2024/09-2024/12 降息期间 沪指 +24.02% 2025 年内首次降息 2025/09-? 2026 幅度 20个基点 折线为美国联邦基金目标利率走势 美国联邦基金目标利率降息周期 数据来源：Wind,选取上世纪90年代后的数据 证券时报 新媒体实验室 出品 更多精彩请登录 编辑:王智佳 高感琦 DID /△/ 证券时报/ 设计: 李 雄 （文章来源：证券时报） 美国联邦基金目标利率上限(%) 时间 2 4 10 0 8 6 1990 1991 降息 18 次 1990/07-1992/09 1992 累计幅度 525个基点 降息期间 沪指 +653.58% 1993 (A股设立初期,涨幅不具有参考性) 1994 1995 1995/07-1996/01 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the A-share market, analyzing historical data to draw correlations between rate cuts and stock market performance [2][5]. Summary by Sections Historical Rate Cuts and A-Share Performance - From July 1990 to September 1992, the Federal Reserve cut rates 18 times, totaling a reduction of 525 basis points, during which the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) rose by 653.58% [3]. - In the period from July 1995 to January 1996, there were 3 rate cuts totaling 5 basis points, and the SSE fell by 15.52% [3]. - Between September 1998 and November 1998, there was a 75 basis point cut, with the SSE increasing by 4.91% [4]. - In 2001, the Fed cut rates 11 times, totaling 475 basis points, leading to a decline of 20.35% in the SSE [4]. - The period from November 2002 to June 2003 saw a 25 basis point cut, with the SSE decreasing by 3.60% [4]. - During the financial crisis from September 2007 to December 2008, the Fed cut rates 10 times, totaling 500 basis points, resulting in a significant drop of 63.57% in the SSE [4]. - In the recent period from August 2019 to October 2019, the Fed cut rates 2 times, totaling 50 basis points, with the SSE showing a slight decline of 0.12% [5]. - The cuts in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic totaled 150 basis points, and the SSE fell by 6.12% [5]. - The most recent cuts in 2024 are projected to total 100 basis points, with an expected increase of 24.02% in the SSE during that period [5].

兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，真的要无眠了！美联储要降息（凌晨2点），泰勒要加班！ 先简单看看目前海外市场的表现。 美股分化 9月17日晚间，临近美联储降息关键节点，美股三大指数走势分化，道指涨超300点，纳指跳水跌约0.5%，标普500指数微跌。 中概股继续大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%。 交易员普遍预期美联储将于本周首次降息，并给出未来几个月降息幅度与节奏的指引。 市场大体押注美联储将在周三降息25个基点，并几乎确信鲍威尔会释放进一步宽松的信号，以支撑疲软的劳动力市场。 这样的预期近来助推美股再创新高。按照安排，华盛顿时间下午2点将与利率决定同时发布最新经济预测，鲍威尔将在30分钟后召开新闻 发布会。 经济学家大多预计，官员们会在"点阵图"中为今年预留两次降息，与6月预测一致。这意味着本周之后今年或仅有一次降息，落在10月或 12月。 尽管"意外"空间不小，但期权交易显示，市场押注这次反应将比平常更平稳。摩根大通的Andrew Tyler表示，最可能的情形是降息25个基 点：只要鲍威尔偏鸽，并释放循序渐进的降息信号，标普500指数或将上涨0.5%~1%。 麦格理集团的Thierry Wizman表示："考虑到数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citigroup outlines expectations for a new interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, predicting a 25 basis point cut due to employment risks, while also providing a historical context for market behavior during such periods [1][4][5] Group 1: Historical Patterns - Historically, both stocks and bonds tend to show positive returns around the time of the first interest rate cut, with stocks averaging a 5% increase in the 50 days following a cut [4] - The dollar typically weakens before a rate cut and stabilizes afterward, while gold prices rise before the implementation of a loose monetary policy but tend to trade within a range post-cut [4][5] - In 2024, the market's aggressive pricing of rate cuts led to bond prices peaking at the first cut, contrasting with the current more moderate pricing of 120 basis points, which reduces the risk of a similar bond market downturn [5][9] Group 2: Economic Context - The ongoing capital expenditure boom driven by artificial intelligence is expected to support a "soft landing" for the economy, which is favorable for the stock market [3] - The current market environment aligns with historical shallow rate cut cycles and soft landing scenarios, potentially providing sustained support for bonds [3][13] Group 3: Key Indicators for Rate Cuts - The depth of the current rate cut cycle is influenced by the S&P 500 index level and inflation trends, with high stock levels typically leading to shallower cuts [11] - Despite significant inflation declines in 2024, the initial high levels resulted in a shallow cut cycle, indicating that current market conditions may follow a similar pattern [13] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, stock prices often experience an initial "knee-jerk" reaction, which may reverse before the close, while bond prices tend to stabilize after initial increases [17] - The report highlights that a hawkish surprise from the FOMC can have lasting impacts on currency pairs, particularly the euro/dollar, with strong dollar performance potentially lasting up to 20 trading days [17]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is highly anticipated due to the confirmation of three new officials and the potential initiation of a rate-cutting cycle [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have reached 100%, indicating that a reduction is almost certain [1][3] - The new officials may favor a more aggressive 50 basis points cut, while the remaining members might support a 25 basis points cut, but the key takeaway is the start of a new monetary easing cycle [3] Group 2 - The anticipated rate cuts in the U.S. could lead to a decrease in deposit rates in China, affecting trillions of yuan in savings interest [5] - Financial products, primarily backed by deposits and bonds, may see mixed effects; while deposit yields may decline, the bond market could benefit from increased liquidity [7] - Historical trends show that rate-cutting cycles often lead to bull markets in equities, with significant inflows of capital into stock markets expected [9] Group 3 - The gold market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, with potential for gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce as investors seek safe-haven assets [11] - A weaker dollar resulting from rate cuts may lead to appreciation of other currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, prompting investors to consider currency exchanges [13] - The trend of appointing like-minded officials to the Federal Reserve suggests that rate cuts may continue over the next one to two years, impacting various financial assets [15]