瑞士政府对美国关税表示遗憾。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-1 ⻩⾦修复性反弹，⽩银延续回落 经历议息会议之夜的利空消息密接轰炸后，⻩⾦⽇内开启修复性反弹， 内盘⻩⾦受到⼈⺠币⾛低的影响，⾛势更为坚挺。美国⼆季度GDP数据超 预期回升，但关税影响下贸易和库存对单季度的影响较⼤，平滑上半年增 速来看，增⻓中枢整体下移的事实客观。后续关税逐渐成为慢变量，关注 其对美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，我们提⽰8⽉下旬的全球央⾏年会更为 重要，关注本周五⾮农数据表现，⻩⾦中⻓期多头趋势并未逆转。 重点资讯： 1）美国上周初请失业金人数为21.8万人，预期22.4万人，前值21. 7万人；四周均值为22.1万人，前值22.45万人；至7月19日当周续请 失业金人数194.6万人，预期195.5万人，前值自195.5万人修正至19 4.6万人。 2）美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8%，预期升2.7%，前值自升2. 7%修正至升2.8%；环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。美国6月 个人支出环比升0.3%，预期升0.4%，前值自降0.1%修正至持平。 3）美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q2 earnings report reveals a mixed performance, with strong revenue but significant concerns over AWS's growth and profitability, particularly in the context of AI demand outpacing supply and rising operational costs [1][2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $167.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase when excluding foreign exchange impacts [27]. - AWS generated $30.9 billion in sales, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year growth, but this growth is seen as insufficient compared to competitors [1][30]. - AWS's operating profit margin fell sharply from 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2, primarily due to increased capital expenditures for AI support [2][31]. AI and Supply Constraints - CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged a significant supply constraint in AI capabilities, stating that demand currently exceeds supply, with electricity being the primary limiting factor [5][6][41]. - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including the development of its proprietary AI chip, Trainium2, which is claimed to be 30% to 40% more cost-effective than competitors' GPUs [3][8][22]. Competitive Landscape - Despite AWS's strong position, concerns are growing about its ability to maintain market leadership as competitors achieve higher growth rates [1][30]. - Jassy emphasized AWS's advantages in security and operational performance, attempting to reassure investors about its competitive edge [2][8][37]. Other Business Segments - Amazon's retail business performed well, with record sales during Prime Day and a 22% year-over-year growth in advertising revenue [3][7][30]. - However, Jassy expressed caution regarding potential impacts from tariffs, indicating uncertainty about future demand and pricing [4][7][18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI and cloud infrastructure to meet growing demand, with expectations of gradual improvements in supply constraints over the coming quarters [31][41]. - Amazon's Project Kuiper aims to address the digital divide by providing broadband access to underserved areas, indicating a long-term growth strategy beyond its core e-commerce and cloud services [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

根据特朗普最新的行政令，新关税要到8月7日才会生效（新税率适用于此后进入消费或从仓库提取以供消费的货物），而不是之前的8月1日，再次留下关税谈判的时间窗口。白宫官员也表示，希望在新的关税实施日期8月7日之前，与各国达成更多协议。 https://t.co/UAGTqkmETQ外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的“对等关税”税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，其中对瑞士征收39%的关税。 https://t.co/whZKuBskQe ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：8月1日关税大限临近，今日重要事件和数据集中，金价震荡回升；美国 三大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美 债收益率跌0.20个基点报4.366%；美元指数跌0.02%报100.04，离岸人民币对美元小 幅贬值报7.2085；COMEX黄金期货跌0.31%报3342.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货770.28，现货766.53，基差-3.75，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单35643千克，增加2199千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

亚马逊发布了该公司的2025财年第二季度财报：净销售额为1677亿美元，同比增长13%，不计入汇率变 动的影响为同比增长12%；净利润为182亿美元，同比增长35%。 详见：亚马逊第二季度营收1677亿美元 净利润同比增长35% 财报发布后，亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）、CFO布莱恩·奥萨维斯基（Brian Olsavsky）和投资 者关系主管戴夫·菲尔德斯（Dave Fildes）回答了投资者提问。 以下是电话会议实录： 摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth：首先，能否请管理层更详细地说明一下，关税成本是如何在供应商、 亚马逊和消费者之间分担的？预计未来这种情况会有变化吗？其次，关于亚马逊AWS云服务，我们看 到该市场上的第二和第三大公司的云业务增长明显更快。我完全理解AWS的增长基数更大，但除此之 外，您认为这种差距更多是源于客户需求、基础设施供应，还是两者皆有？ 安迪·贾西：我来回答一下这两个问题。关于关税的问题，我们已经之前多次提到过，而且目前的观点 与此前无异，那就是我们很难预测未来的情况。关税最终会定在什么水平，尤其是对于自中国进口的商 品，这点不好说。我们自有品牌零售业务的一些 ...

特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的“对等关税”税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，其中对瑞士征收39%的关税。 https://t.co/whZKuBskQe ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts indicate that the imposition of a staggering 39% tariff by the U.S. on Switzerland is expected to negatively impact the performance of the Swiss franc compared to other G10 currencies [1] Group 1 - The Swiss franc has underperformed against other G10 currencies following the U.S. tariff announcement [1] - Forex traders are using this situation as an opportunity to push up the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF pairs before the European trading session [1] - The lack of liquidity during the Asian trading session may lead traders to excessively sell the Swiss franc [1]