政策兑现与外部扰动共振下，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀：4月CPI同比下降-0.1 ...

⚫[Table_Summary] 城投债一级市场综述 城投债供给季节性转弱。具体来看，5 月城投发行债券 2802 亿元，偿还 3515 亿元，净偿还 713 亿元，净偿还规模较前月环比减少约 102 亿元，同 比增加约 373亿元。整体来看，受财报数据更新影响，5 月城投发行季节性 缩量，发行规模为近三年同期新低，年内累计净偿还规模扩大至 884 亿 元，扩大范围来看，自 2024 年以来累计净偿还 25 亿元，城投已经完全进 入存量乃至去存量市场，同期 AA 及以下弱资质主体累计净偿还 5857 亿 元，而 AAA 主体则净融入 5190 亿元，作为票息资产主要供给方，弱资质 主体在化债政策影响下正不断退出市场，稀缺性将进一步加深。 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 弱主体加速退出，票息稀缺性增强 报告日期： 2025-06-05 主要观点： 长久期继续维持主导，各等级全面缩量。融资结构方面，各等级主体均出 现连续净偿还，低等级压力相对显著，区县级主体净偿还规模超过地市级 主体。在期限方面，市场平均发行久期有所提升，2 年期及以下短久期占比 22%，3 年期及以上占比 7 ...

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

Core Insights - The decline in deposit interest rates below 1% and the expected return on wealth management products around 2% is prompting depositors to rethink their money management strategies [1] - Wealth management companies are increasing their marketing efforts, contributing to the growth of bank wealth management scale [1] - As of June 3, the scale of bank wealth management reached 31.24 trillion yuan, an increase of over 140 billion yuan since the end of April [1] - Industry experts believe that the reduction in deposit rates is further driving "deposit migration," making it more challenging for banks to attract deposits, while wealth management products are seeing an influx of new funds [1] - The wealth management scale is expected to surpass the historical high of 33 trillion yuan within the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking wealth management market is experiencing significant growth, with the total scale exceeding 31 trillion yuan as of May 20, reflecting a transformation in banking operations amid a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - As of May 20, the wealth management market's total scale has surpassed 31 trillion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 1.6 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1]. - The bond market's declining interest rates have contributed to the recovery of wealth management product yields, with average annualized yields for open-ended fixed-income products rising to 3.21% in April, an increase of 1.41 percentage points [1]. - The trend of "deposit migration" has been observed, with wealth management scale growing by over 2 trillion yuan in April alone, driven by lower deposit rates [2]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - The reduction in deposit rates has led to a significant interest rate differential between savings and wealth management products, prompting investors to shift funds towards the latter [2]. - Major banks have initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts, with one-year fixed deposit rates generally falling below 1.35% [2]. - Wealth management products are increasingly offering stable returns through investments in high-yield credit bonds and non-standard assets, appealing to investors seeking better returns [2]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Sales Strategies - Banks are actively adjusting product structures and sales strategies in response to declining deposit rates, focusing on closed-end and periodically open products to secure long-term funds [2]. - The promotion of net value-type and short-duration wealth management products has been intensified, enhancing liquidity and meeting diverse customer needs [3]. - The expansion of sales channels through partnerships with other banks and internet platforms has effectively captured funds flowing out of the deposit market [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue growing, with predictions that the wealth management scale may exceed 32 trillion yuan by the end of the year, driven by further reductions in deposit rates and improved investor expectations [4]. - The differentiation within the wealth management market is anticipated to intensify, with net value-type products and diversified asset allocation becoming core competitive advantages [4]. - Financial institutions are expected to innovate and enhance services to meet the growing demand for wealth management products, leading to a richer variety of offerings [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in deposit interest rates by small and medium-sized banks have led to a notable decline in long-term deposit rates, with some institutions offering five-year fixed deposit rates as low as 1.2%, which is below the state-owned banks' rates of 1.3% for the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Adjustments - Several rural commercial banks and village banks have announced reductions in their fixed deposit rates, with Guangdong Qingxin Rural Commercial Bank lowering its five-year rate to 1.25% and Guangzhou Huadu Chouzhou Village Bank to 1.2% [2]. - The adjustments in small and medium-sized banks contrast sharply with the collective rate cuts by state-owned banks, which reduced their three-month to two-year rates by 15 basis points and five-year rates by 25 basis points [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in long-term deposit rates among small and medium-sized banks is attributed to a combination of narrowing net interest margins, maturity mismatch risks, and the transmission of policy changes [3][4]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.43% in the first quarter of this year, indicating pressure on profitability [4]. Group 3: Future Trends - The phenomenon of inverted interest rates, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, is expected to persist in the short term due to ongoing net interest margin pressures [4][5]. - Small and medium-sized banks are likely to adopt a pricing strategy that favors higher short-term rates while suppressing long-term rates to attract liquidity-sensitive customers [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To address the challenges posed by the current interest rate environment, small and medium-sized banks are encouraged to implement differentiated pricing strategies, innovate deposit services, and accelerate digital transformation [5][6]. - Enhancing strategic research capabilities and refining deposit pricing strategies are essential for improving customer retention and managing funding costs effectively [5][6].

南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘高开低走，午后窄幅震荡，尾盘拉升全线收涨。资金利率依旧不高，DR隔夜收至1.4%以 下，公开市场净回笼6亿元，流动性保持充裕。 国债期货日报 2025年6月 4日 消息只是触发剂 观点：坚定持有 日内消息： 1.财政部、住房城乡建设部组织开展了2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动评选，拟支持的20个城 市为（按行政区划排序）：北京、天津、唐山、包头、大连、哈尔滨、苏州、温州、芜湖、厦门、济南、 郑州、宜昌、长沙、广州、海口、宜宾、兰州、西宁、乌鲁木齐。 行情研判： 债市近期成交偏平淡，存款利率调整落地后多头缺乏足够的上冲动能，但不论是数据发布还是资金水平都 难以构成真切的利空。纠结的环境下，存单提价、风险资产的跷跷板效应等短期因素对市场的影响被放 大，今天也是如此，早盘随着A股拉升债市震荡走低，午后则因为一则谈判相关的消息再度拉升。 但从结构上来说，依旧需要思考几个问题，不论是久期中性还是现券上，今天短端都要强于长端，然而存 单依旧在提价，为什么前几天债市走弱的理由到今天突然不适用了？另外，如果 ...

银行理财 2025 年 6 月月报 优于大市 当"存款搬家"遇到监管指引 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月04日 5 月银行理财规模继续保持高增长。5 月存款利率下行，而理财收益基准维 持较高水平，这带动了银行理财规模扩张。从收益看，国股行一年期存款利 率降至 1%以下，而 5 月银行理财业绩表现较好，当月理财规模加权平均年化 收益率 2.57%，较上月持平；其中现金管理类产品年化收益率 1.49%，纯债 类产品年化收益率 2.69%。收益率优势促进存款搬家和理财规模增长，5 月 份存量规模回升至 31.3 万亿元，环比上月回升 0.5 万亿元。 同时监管政策持续规范理财业务，理财产品的形态、运作模式仍在调整中。 一方面，监管政策通过机构评级办法鼓励理财子公司重视业务质量，弱化规 模增长。根据 21 世纪资管研究院披露，理财公司分类监管评级办法试点阶 段相关内容正进入讨论期：未来银行理财分类监管评级办法不再鼓励银行理 财公司单纯冲规模；评级要素包括公司治理、资管能力、风险管理、信息披 露、投资者权益保护和信息系统六大方面，其中资管能力权重最高。监管评 级结果分为 1-6 级，数值越大即评级得分越低，越需要重 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月04日 银行理财 2025 年 6 月月报 优于大市 当"存款搬家"遇到监管指引 5 月银行理财规模继续保持高增长。5 月存款利率下行，而理财收益基准维 持较高水平，这带动了银行理财规模扩张。从收益看，国股行一年期存款利 率降至 1%以下，而 5 月银行理财业绩表现较好，当月理财规模加权平均年化 收益率 2.57%，较上月持平；其中现金管理类产品年化收益率 1.49%，纯债 类产品年化收益率 2.69%。收益率优势促进存款搬家和理财规模增长，5 月 份存量规模回升至 31.3 万亿元，环比上月回升 0.5 万亿元。 同时监管政策持续规范理财业务，理财产品的形态、运作模式仍在调整中。 一方面，监管政策通过机构评级办法鼓励理财子公司重视业务质量，弱化规 模增长。根据 21 世纪资管研究院披露，理财公司分类监管评级办法试点阶 段相关内容正进入讨论期：未来银行理财分类监管评级办法不再鼓励银行理 财公司单纯冲规模；评级要素包括公司治理、资管能力、风险管理、信息披 露、投资者权益保护和信息系统六大方面，其中资管能力权重最高。监管评 级结果分为 1-6 级，数值越大即评级得分越低，越需要重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in deposit interest rates in China, marking the end of the "risk-free" era for conservative savers, and highlights the shift towards stock market investments as a new financial strategy for individuals [1][3][14]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Major state-owned banks in China have collectively lowered deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping to 0.95%, resulting in a decrease in interest income from 1,450 yuan to 950 yuan for a 100,000 yuan deposit [1][3]. - This reduction in deposit rates has severely diminished the attractiveness of traditional savings, particularly impacting middle-aged and elderly savers who rely on interest income [3]. Group 2: Investment Landscape - The decline in low-risk investment options has led to a growing interest in the stock market, which is now seen as a primary avenue for personal finance [4][5]. - The stock market is experiencing increased attention due to supportive policies aimed at enhancing investor returns and the influx of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds [5]. Group 3: Investor Education and Tools - There is an urgent need for investor education as individuals transition from savings to stock market investments, emphasizing the importance of knowledge and preparation to avoid risky investments [7][8]. - The emergence of intelligent stock learning tools, such as the "Easy Knowledge Stock Path" by Jiufang Zhitu, aims to equip investors with the necessary skills and knowledge to navigate the stock market effectively [10][12]. Group 4: Future of Investment - The article concludes that the era of risk-free returns is over, and investors must embrace knowledge-driven investment strategies to achieve wealth growth [14]. - The shift towards cognitive and professional investment tools is essential for navigating the complexities of the current market environment [12][14].