金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/01 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝期货大涨转下跌，后续走势解析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，氧化铝期货市场走势跌宕起伏，先是大幅上涨，后又迅速下跌，引发了市场参与者的广泛关注。那 么，这背后的原因是什么？后续又该如何看待呢？ 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从上涨原因来看，主要是政策预期和市场情绪的推动。7月19日工信部提到即将推出有色行业稳增长方案， 鉴于之前"反内卷"政策对多晶硅、焦煤等品种的影响，多头资金大量涌入氧化铝市场 ，推动价格持续攀 升，直至突破3500元/吨整数关口才遇阻。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD | 主力动向 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOLDTRUST | FUTURES | CO.，LTD | | 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售， ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment continues to decline, with glass futures experiencing a drop in the night session [1] - Institutional analysis indicates that the policy measures have not exceeded expectations, leading to fluctuations in market sentiment [1] - Continuous inventory decline is seen as a sign of improvement in the fundamentals, but the current industry mindset remains cautious, with the market in a high volatility phase [1]

市场情绪复杂，黄金还会继续下跌吗？入场策略如何优化？Richard正在直播解读中，点击马上观看！ 相关链接 黄金走势实时分析中 ...

黄金美盘分析直播中 美联储决议后，市场情绪更为谨慎，短期能看多吗？Richard正在直播解析关键位，点击马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 31, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1045.5, down 7.97% and hitting the daily limit. After several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory generally decreased, clean coal inventory shifted from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, import cumulative growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 31, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1601.0, down 4.93%. The spot market started the fifth round of price increase. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, there was no obvious incremental policy expectation, and with the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, this period's hot - metal output was 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons, with high hot - metal production and no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 54 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1045.50 yuan/ton, down 71.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1601.00 yuan/ton, down 75.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 783278.00 lots, down 10291.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 50815.00 lots, down 241.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 108407.00 lots, down 14621.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6493.00 lots, up 874.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 89.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 53.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 75.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 354.50 yuan/ton, up 71.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.60 million tons, down 1.20 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% [2]. - Ton - coke profit of independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [2]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, a 40% additional tariff on Brazil (total tariff reaching 50%), and a 25% tariff on goods from India [2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will grow strongly, with an expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time and said the risk of a serious escalation of the global trade war has weakened [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 31, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,946, down 4.44%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,820, down 80 yuan/ton. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the inventory is moderately high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 210,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output is at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is 100 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price has rebounded this month. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 31, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,696, down 6.62%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,710, down 12 yuan/ton. After several macro - events, the market sentiment weakened. The operating rate is at a low level, the Ningxia semi - coke price on the cost side has dropped, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. The ferroalloy production profit is negative, with the Inner Mongolia spot profit at 230 yuan/ton and the Ningxia spot profit at 430 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,946元/吨，环比下降170元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,696元/吨，环比下降312元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为603,752手，环比下降47,460手；SF期货合约持仓量为406,294手，环比下降32,084手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 96,908手，环比增加23,496手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 40,380手，环比增加7,426手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为82元/吨，环比下降10元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为146元/吨，环比增加14元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,527张，环比下降209张；SF仓单为22,051张，环比增加48张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,820元/吨，环比下降80元；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,760元/吨，环比下降110元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,850元/吨，环比下降100元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,580元/吨，环比下降130元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900元/吨，环比下降50元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710元/吨，环比下降120元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,688元/吨，环比增加78元；SF主力合约基差为14元/吨，环比增加192元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 126元/吨，环比增加90元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为37元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,050元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.5万吨，环比增加21万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比增加1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比增加0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480吨，环比增加3,640吨；硅铁供应为102,300吨，环比增加2,300吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000吨，环比下降11,300吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123,670吨，环比增加289吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,065.7吨，环比增加52吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8,318.4万吨，环比下降336.1万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定10月召开二十届四中全会，强调做好下半年经济工作的相关政策 [2]. - 美国将对韩国征收15%关税，对巴西加征40%关税使总关税额达50%，对印度商品征收25%关税 [2]. - 国际能源署称全球电力需求将强劲增长，2025年预计增长3.3%，2026年增长3.7% [2]. - 加拿大央行连续第三次维持关键政策利率在2.75%不变，全球贸易战严重升级风险减弱 [2]. - 美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%不变，这是连续第五次维持利率不变 [2].

Group 1 - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with coking coal futures declining again, hovering around the 10-day moving average, and once dropping over 4% to 1099 yuan [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing as coking enterprises are cautious about high-priced coal procurement due to profit considerations, leading to a mixed performance in auction prices [1] - The overall operating rate of 110 washing plants across the country has decreased by 0.8% to 61.51%, with daily output down by 0.01 million tons to 52.14 million tons [1] Group 2 - Hualian Futures expects a strong short-term coking coal market, predicting a rebound followed by a stable oscillation, with coal mine operating rates continuing to rise and daily output increasing [2] - The demand for coking coal is supported by strong steel production, with the fourth round of price increases for coking coal already implemented and expectations for a fifth round [2] - Nanhua Futures notes that the recovery of domestic coal mines is slow, but the demand for coking coal is being boosted by speculative trading and essential procurement [3] Group 3 - Zijin Tianfeng Futures indicates that the supply and demand for coking coal remain tight, with recent market sentiment showing significant fluctuations, making it prone to corrections after rapid increases [4] - The recovery of domestic coal supply is slower than expected, while the import of Mongolian coal has resumed quickly after the Nadam Festival [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for coking coal is tight, with upstream inventories continuing to transfer to downstream, indicating a smooth coal mine shipment process [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish with a sideways trend [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided [8] 2. Core Views - Steel: Market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are bullish with a sideways trend. Construction steel production and sales are stable, and inventory changes are minimal. Plate production has declined, and exports have significantly boosted plate consumption. A series of policies have been introduced to boost market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, prices have rebounded significantly due to macro - expectation boost. In the long term, the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The supply in July shows a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years. The demand and consumption of iron ore are resilient [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, and prices are moving sideways. For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery expectation is strong with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. For coke, after the price increase, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways as downstream daily consumption is rising with the increase in temperature. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3347 yuan/ton and 3503 yuan/ton respectively. Spot steel transactions are generally good, with speculative and futures - cash purchases being active. The national construction steel transaction volume is 12200 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Construction steel production and sales are stable, inventory changes are small, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs rise, construction steel prices increase. Plate production has declined, and exports have a significant pulling effect on plate consumption. A series of policies have boosted market sentiment [1]. - **Strategy**: Bullish with a sideways trend for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm is average, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore is 1.064 million tons, a 5.42% decrease from the previous day; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot is 1.63 million tons, a 36.97% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In July, iron ore shipments show a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years due to price increases. The current molten iron production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale steel mill overhauls in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The decline of coke futures has narrowed compared to coking coal. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal has returned to a high level, and the supply recovery expectation is strong. After the coke price increase, traders' enthusiasm has increased [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery needs to be tracked with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The demand for molten iron remains high, and short - term speculative demand has increased. For coke, after the fourth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors. The downstream steel fundamentals are better than the seasonal expectation, providing demand support [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, and coal prices are fluctuating. The price - holding sentiment has cooled down. At the port, downstream rigid - demand purchases at the end of the month have been completed. As the high - temperature range expands, daily consumption is increasing, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, leading to higher market quotes. For imported coal, coastal power plants are replenishing stocks, and the quoted price has increased slightly [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: In July, as the temperature rises, downstream daily consumption is increasing, and demand is strengthening. In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy provided [8].

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]

Group 1 - Market sentiment is becoming cautious, indicating a potential shift in investor behavior [1] - Gold remains under pressure, suggesting that the short-term direction is still unclear [1] - Richard is conducting a live analysis to dissect the long and short logic surrounding gold [1]