Group 1 - The core issue of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is a complex interplay between the interests of the financial sector and the real economy in the U.S. [1] - The pressure from the Trump administration on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates highlights the ongoing conflict between different interest groups within the U.S. [1] - The recent Chicago Economic Club speech by Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would not take emergency measures in response to market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of internal economic dynamics [1] Group 2 - Following high-level U.S.-China trade talks, the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has cooled, with a majority of Americans anticipating price increases due to tariffs [2] - The inflation rate in the U.S. remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, making an immediate rate cut unlikely, leading Citibank to push back its rate cut forecast from June to July [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December, indicating a shift from a protective stance to a normalization approach due to stable economic growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is driven by the desire to devalue the dollar and improve manufacturing competitiveness [3] - The significant U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, adds urgency to the government's push for lower interest rates to facilitate the refinancing of high-interest debt [3] - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve's short-term interests and the government's strategic goals suggests that the debate over interest rate cuts will continue, making predictions about future rate changes premature [3]

Group 1 - The UK is considering adjusting monthly CPI data to better measure inflation trends [1] - The adjustment aims to eliminate seasonal fluctuations, aiding the Bank of England and investors in assessing inflationary pressures [1] - The Office for National Statistics plans to consult on whether to compile seasonally adjusted month-on-month inflation data in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Other countries like the US and France already use this technique to mitigate price volatility caused by seasonal changes [1] - This adjustment is seen as a significant shift for those trying to gauge inflation direction and potential interest rate movements [1] - Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, stated that this will provide a better and more reliable indicator of current price pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) members are increasingly inclined to believe that trade shocks may lead to inflationary pressures beyond the short term [1] Group 1 - ECB members discussed the potential long-term impacts of trade shocks on inflation, indicating a shift in their perspective [1] - The meeting highlighted concerns regarding the sustainability of inflation rates in the context of ongoing trade tensions [1] - There is a growing consensus among ECB members that external trade factors could have lasting effects on the Eurozone economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is facing multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and inflation pressures, as stated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [3] - Dimon mentioned that the current Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach is wise, suggesting that they should continue to observe the situation before making decisions [3] - There is a growing concern among policymakers that high inflation and high unemployment could occur simultaneously, making stagflation a more realistic risk [3] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has increased, currently trading at $3331.70 per ounce, with a rise of 0.46%, having reached a high of $3346.80 and a low of $3316.30 today [1][3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified at $3356-$3366, while support levels are noted at $3168-$3176 [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of tariffs on the global market, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relations and their implications for various asset classes and economic indicators. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current Tariff Levels and Expectations** Current tariff levels are better than expected, with a 10% reciprocal tariff seen as a short-term optimal state. The effective tax rate in the U.S. has decreased, but increased trade volume has expanded the base, necessitating attention to potential agreements before exemptions expire [3][5][6]. 2. **U.S. Urgency to Lower Tariffs** The U.S. is eager to reduce high tariffs to alleviate supply shortages and inflation pressures while maintaining trade with China. The Trump administration has employed negotiations, tax cuts, and pressure on the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges [6][7]. 3. **Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Exports** The trade war has led to a significant decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., prompting China to seek alternative markets. The reduction in tariffs has improved China's port transportation business, although risks from potential U.S. export restrictions remain [8]. 4. **Performance of Alternative Assets** Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold have performed strongly, with some funds flowing back to Europe. Emerging markets, particularly India, have shown similar trends, while commodities have suffered due to recession fears [9]. 5. **Market Reactions to Tariff Adjustments** U.S. stocks rebounded faster than Hong Kong stocks during tariff escalations, driven by liquidity shocks and better-than-expected performance from major tech companies [10]. 6. **Liquidity Shocks and Investment Opportunities** Liquidity shocks, often triggered by unexpected events, provide significant buying opportunities as central banks typically intervene to stabilize markets [11]. 7. **U.S. Economic Resilience Amid Tariff Pressures** Despite tariff pressures, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with no clear signs of recession. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to alleviate pressure, but supply-side inflation remains a concern [12][14]. 8. **Inflation Expectations** Current inflation pressures in the U.S. have eased, with projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index around 4% and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at approximately 3.5% by year-end [15]. 9. **Federal Reserve Policy Outlook** The Federal Reserve's future policy direction may differ from market expectations, with potential for small rate cuts in the fourth quarter, contrary to the belief that rising tariffs would necessitate immediate cuts [16]. 10. **Challenges Facing U.S. Financial Markets** The U.S. financial markets face challenges from a peak in government bond maturities and debt ceiling issues, leading to increased supply of government bonds and pressure on bond yields [17]. 11. **Dynamic Balance of U.S. Accounts** The U.S. maintains a dynamic balance through its current account deficit, which facilitates global capital inflows to purchase U.S. assets, impacting the overall economic landscape [26]. 12. **Sector Allocation Strategies** Investment strategies should focus on sectors that are less reliant on external demand, such as technology and domestic consumption, while maintaining a balance between dividend and growth stocks [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Future Trends** Market sentiment has improved, reducing the likelihood of strong reactions to positive data. Investors are advised to manage positions carefully to withstand potential volatility [28]. 2. **Impact of Tariff Reductions on Chinese Markets** Tariff reductions have lessened the negative impact on Chinese markets, with projections for Hong Kong stock earnings to grow by 4-5% in 2025 [27]. 3. **Long-term Macro Logic vs. Short-term Operations** While long-term macro logic is important, overemphasis on it can lead to misjudgments in short-term trading strategies [21]. 4. **Recent Trends in Southbound Capital Flows** Recent weakness in southbound capital flows is attributed to individual investors and trading funds, rather than institutional investors, indicating a return to normal levels [33]. 5. **Real Estate Market Performance** The real estate market has shown weakness due to demand and investment return rate discrepancies, necessitating further monetary policy adjustments [36]. 6. **Technological Developments and Economic Expectations** Advances in technology, such as DeepSeek, have improved economic expectations, but fiscal stimulus is still needed to address challenges from private sector leverage and tariff impacts [38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of tariffs, market reactions, and economic indicators.

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 778.78 CNY per gram, up by 2.98%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8272.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 2.04% [1] - In contrast, international precious metal futures saw a decline, with COMEX gold priced at 3313.50 USD per ounce, down by 0.63%, while COMEX silver was priced at 33.30 USD per ounce, up by 0.12% [1] Group 2 - The latest data indicated that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.6% in March to 3.5% in April, with core CPI increasing from 3.4% to 3.8%, exceeding market expectations [3] - This inflation data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, delaying market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England this year [3] - Despite this, investors still anticipate at least one rate cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year, reflecting concerns over economic growth slowdown [3] Group 3 - On May 20, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.83% to 3292.60 USD per ounce, while the main Shanghai gold contract increased by 2.11% to 772.22 CNY per gram [4] - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for more time to understand how trade policies affect business decisions, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 94.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy path has become a focal point for global markets, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in 2025 being challenged by rising inflation risks and a resilient labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Factors contributing to inflation include rising energy prices, localized supply chain tensions, and sticky wage growth in the labor market [3]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that if inflation remains above the 2% target, the timeline for rate cuts could be pushed back to 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A delay in rate cuts could enhance the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, leading to a negative correlation with capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks [3]. - Historical data shows that during the Fed's rate hike cycle in 2022, capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks exceeded 10 billion HKD in a single day, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 15% [3]. - Currently, despite Hong Kong stocks being undervalued, tightening external liquidity may offset this valuation advantage, as indicated by a decrease in the overweight ratio of global emerging market funds in Hong Kong stocks from 5.2% to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The company recommends focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications, which have stable cash flows and are less impacted by external liquidity shocks [5]. - It is advised to use currency hedging tools, such as USD/HKD forward contracts or offshore RMB options, to mitigate the risk of asset depreciation due to a stronger dollar [5]. - Investors should closely monitor Fed officials' speeches and economic data releases to identify potential trading opportunities, particularly in response to employment and inflation data [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Internationally, Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. Domestically, the economy showed stable growth in April. Fundamentally, the global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper port inventories are increasing. Supply is growing steadily due to sufficient domestic raw materials and favorable copper prices. Demand is limited as copper prices are high and downstream processing plants are cautious in purchasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Copper may show a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The technical indicator 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with an expanding green column. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract was 77,540 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,470 dollars/ton, down 53.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 166,088 lots, down 5,147 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai Copper futures were 11,331 lots, up 1,635 lots. The LME copper inventory was 174,325 tons, down 5,050 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 45,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,340 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,290 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 95 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 800 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 15.52 dollars/ton, down 15.93 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in April was 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,630 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,330 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper in April was 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper in Shanghai was 66,600 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products in April was 208.10 million tons (no comparison data). The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 27,729.57 billion yuan, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper was 11.02%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.24%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 13.76%, down 0.0141%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.94, up 0.0220 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's economy grew steadily. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1%. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. The real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. In April, new home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and slightly decreased in third - tier cities. A new round of deposit - rate cuts is about to take place. The EU has lowered its economic growth forecast for Europe. Fed officials have different statements on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. In April 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly while imports decreased sharply [2]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：通胀压力指标令我感到担忧。 ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝期货将偏强宽幅震荡 铜、原 油期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3873 点，支撑位 3830 和 3816 点；IH2506 阻力位 2699 和 2727 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5663 和 5700 点，支撑位 5560 和 5544 点；IM2506 阻力位 6000 ...