Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs proposed by Trump could generate additional revenue of $600-700 billion per year, requiring the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to rise from 2.2% to 21%[7] - If the tariffs are fully borne by households, the average loss per American household could be $5,400, approximately 5% of median household income[9] - If the tariffs are shared equally between households and corporations, household income could decline by 2.5% and corporate after-tax profits could drop by 15%[9] Group 2: Economic Objectives and Comparisons - The economic objectives of the new tariffs include increasing federal revenue and promoting the return of manufacturing, differing from the 2018 focus on trade balance[10] - By Q4 2024, manufacturing's share of non-residential fixed asset investment is expected to rise to 5.7%, up from 2.7% five years ago[10] Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% due to tariff impacts, while only slightly adjusting the unemployment rate[12] - As of April 7, 2025, S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been revised down by 4.1% for Q1 and 2.5% for Q2, indicating a cautious market outlook[16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy aims to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with actual wages and long-term inflation expectations being critical factors in policy decisions[21] - As of April 7, 2025, the 5-year inflation swap rate is at 2.3%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations[23] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - High tariffs are expected to create both demand and supply shocks, influencing asset allocation strategies, with potential shifts favoring commodities over financial assets in a stagflation scenario[26] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium is currently at 43 basis points, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid tariff-induced inflation risks[29]

家人们，活久见啊。 从没想到过有一天能见到 104% 的关税…… 我只是一个普通人，只想好好混吃等死，为什么老是要逼我见证历史…… 刚刚官方消息，中国这边已经已经跟上了， 真正的对等关税！太对等了，大家都 104%，都别活了！ 感觉大家坐在牌桌两端： 中国：Call！ 川普：……（SOS，我本来只是想偷鸡！） 现在就看到最后谁受不了先 Fold 了。 先别说天塌不塌了，我的股票账户最近连遭重锤，曲线已经塌陷了。这是一柄双刃剑，我看了看推特，感觉海外的股民也很痛。 | | ਟ | T | Stilly | | 25 | | 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TSLA | LLY | | WMT | | AVGO | | | | | -37.78% | -3.96% | | -4.67% | | -39.37% | | | AAPL | AMZN | Bi | 1 | | CB | | | | | -21.87% | -20.58% | JPM | XOM | | MA | NFLX | ORCI | | | | ...

特朗普的第一个任期，于2018年4月初根据301调查结果对中国发出了加征进口关税的威胁。此后，中美 关税摩擦交错升级，美国于2018年7月6日、8月23日、9月24日和2019年9月1日分四批对累计约3700亿美 元中国进口商品加征了10%~25%的关税。 特朗普1.0关税在2018年引发了"抢出口效应"。据中方统计，当年，中国出口（美元口径，下同）增长 9.9%，增速较上年加快2.0个百分点。其中，对美国出口增长10.8%，较出口平均增速高出0.9个百分 点。同期，由于中国进口增长15.8%，快于出口增速，进出口顺差减少16.4%，其中对美贸易顺差增长 16.7%。 文/ 中银证券全球首席经济学家 管涛 从2019年的经验看，关税冲击不一定表现为中国整体贸易顺差下降，而 是在顺差可能扩大的情况下，通过出口和进口两个渠道影响或反映中国经 济运行。我们需早做准备，并变压力为动力，加快经济转型和政策调整。 现在外部环境更趋复杂严峻，将倒逼中国加快推进相关改革与调整：一是 加快构建新发展格局；二是转变外贸发展方式；三是强化宏观政策的民生 导向，将外部打压遏制的压力转变成集中精力做好自己事情的动力。 美国政府换届一个 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors' stance on the US stock market is wavering, with Morgan Stanley indicating that the market may face deeper adjustments if foreign capital begins to question the "American exceptionalism" narrative and withdraws from the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "fast money" has exited the market, with hedge fund net exposure dropping to 37%, currently rising to 39%, which is in the 2nd percentile since 2010 [2]. - Macro systemic leverage has decreased to the 14th percentile, following a sell-off of $375 billion in stocks [2]. - Retail investors have not capitulated yet, and long-term investment clients of QDS have not shown panic selling [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings in US stocks over the past 30 years, currently owning 18% of US equities [2]. - If this group begins to question the "American exceptionalism" and reduces their investments in US stocks, it could lead to more downside risks in the market [2]. Group 3: Tactical Outlook - QDS anticipates that stocks may be more likely to rise than fall in the coming week, but the market is expected to retest lows in the coming months due to the impact of tariff shocks and slow-moving investor sell-offs [5]. - Recent signs of capitulation include hedge fund net exposure falling below 40% and the VIX index exceeding 50, but a complete correlated sell-off has not yet occurred [6]. Group 4: Key Issues Influencing Market Direction - Four major issues are highlighted as critical for market direction: - Fundamentals: The impact of tariffs will take months to fully manifest, with historical data showing that a 20% drop in the S&P 500 typically indicates a recession [7]. - Federal Reserve: The Fed's response to economic slowdown may lag behind the situation, as indicated by Powell's comments suggesting they are not in a hurry [7]. - Foreign Flows: Actual funds, especially from outside the US, could have the most significant downside impact on the market [8]. - Financial Leverage: While much leverage has been removed from the system, not all has been, and the market is shorting Gamma values [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff shocks on global capital markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese A-share market and the perspectives of major financial institutions like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley regarding investment strategies in the current environment [1][2]. Group 1: UBS Insights - UBS analyst Meng Lei suggests that the recent movements in the A-share market may have already priced in potential negative impacts from tariffs, referencing historical data from 2018 where major indices experienced about a 3% decline on the first day of tariff news but stabilized thereafter [3][4]. - Current valuation levels in the A-share market provide a cushion against downside risks, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index and all A-shares having static P/E ratios of 11.7x and 13.8x, respectively, both below their five-year averages by 0.7 standard deviations [4]. - The market's stability requires significant net inflows of capital, with institutions like Central Huijin increasing their holdings in ETFs to support market stability [4][5]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Perspective - Goldman Sachs' chief strategist Liu Jinjun emphasizes that U.S. tariffs affect the fair value of Chinese stocks through multiple variables, including direct income shocks to exporters and potential policy responses [6]. - Liu anticipates that the market may experience downward pressure until trade and policy uncertainties are resolved, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the short term [6]. Group 3: Morgan Stanley Analysis - Morgan Stanley's Laura Wang indicates that the A-share market is more resilient and should be viewed as a hedging or diversification option amid ongoing market volatility [7][8]. - Wang notes that the sensitivity of A-share investors to policy changes is lower due to the predominance of retail investors, which may lead to more stable performance compared to offshore markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts of recent tariff increases by the U.S., suggesting that the U.S. may face recession or stagflation, while China could continue its M-shaped recovery. Countries with significant trade exposure may experience economic headwinds. The recommendation is to overweight gold and Chinese bonds, while underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities [1][4][12]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced a general 10% tariff on imports, with countries having large trade deficits facing tariffs exceeding 30%. This escalation in tariffs has exceeded market expectations, leading to a risk-off sentiment in global assets, resulting in declines in global stocks and commodities [3][4]. - The tariff impact was anticipated, as previous analyses indicated that the market underestimated the negative effects of Trump's policies, predicting that the U.S. economy would struggle to maintain a balanced growth path [5][11]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face a downward trend, with consumption and investment showing signs of decline. The potential paths for the U.S. economy include stagflation (high inflation and low growth) and recession (low inflation and low growth) [11][12]. - In contrast, China's economy is projected to follow a "weak recovery" path, supported by policy stimulus, with expectations of an M-shaped growth trajectory similar to the previous year. China's inflation remains significantly lower than that of the U.S., allowing for more flexibility in counter-cyclical policies [11][12]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - To mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, the recommendation is to overweight safe assets such as gold and Chinese bonds. Historical data shows that safe assets tend to perform well during significant declines in U.S. stocks [12][13]. - Gold is highlighted as a key asset due to its inflation-hedging properties, with projections suggesting a long-term price range of $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. Recent price declines are attributed to market sentiment rather than liquidity issues [17][19]. - The recommendation for U.S. bonds is cautious due to high uncertainty, while Chinese bonds are expected to perform well as monetary policy may counteract the negative effects of tariffs [19][20]. Stock Market Strategy - The article advises underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities, with a focus on high-dividend and policy-benefiting stocks in China. The recent declines in U.S. stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicate a significant adjustment risk [20][22]. - Historical analysis suggests that after a 20% decline in U.S. stocks, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, but these often occur after clear policy shifts [20][22]. Conclusion on Global Economic Dynamics - The economic performance of countries outside the U.S. may depend on their trade exposure to the U.S. and the extent of tariff increases. Countries with high reliance on exports to the U.S. may face significant economic risks due to the tariff pressures [11][12][26]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving economic landscape and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and their implications for global markets [11][12][26].

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机构：关税冲击下2025年智能手机生产量年增幅度或与前一年持平 《科创板日报》8日讯，TrendForce集邦咨询最新报告指出，若宽松解读20%美国价值相关规定，中高端 智能手机皆有机会适用，但以低端或入门款为主的手机品牌可能无法避开关税冲击。而消费者对未来的 经济发展缺乏信心，消费降级情况将更加明显。在基准情境下，2025年智能手机生产量年增幅度将下修 为与前一年持平。若关税冲突后续削弱全球经济表现，智能手机市场将面临更大挑战，产量可能转为年 减5%。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the U.S. imposing a 10% minimum baseline tariff on trade partners, with specific tariffs of 34% on China and 20% to 49% on other countries, which may lead to increased inflation risks in the U.S. [2][3] - China's exports to the U.S. have decreased from 19.2% of total exports in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and a growing reliance on other markets [2][3] - The report emphasizes that despite short-term impacts from tariffs, China's strong domestic market and manufacturing capabilities will support continued economic growth and expansion of trade partnerships [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that since September 2024, China has implemented favorable policies to stabilize and boost the domestic economy, with a focus on increasing consumption and investment [2][3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on blue-chip stocks with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as technology sectors benefiting from domestic substitution [3]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and South America's new season may be in a bumper - harvest pattern. Currently, it's the U.S. soybean export and South American growth and harvest season. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may be stable [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2505 contract may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: 43 soybean meal prices in different regions: Zhangjiagang 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (- 30), Rizhao 3,070 yuan/ton (- 10), Dongguan 2,970 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Market analysis: Sino - U.S. tariff policies have caused market panic. CBOT soybeans have declined due to demand concerns. In April, the number of imported soybeans is expected to increase. Terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. Oil mill soybean meal inventory remains neutral [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,082 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,281 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port is 2,130 - 2,155 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, and imported corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, but there are still potential suppressing factors [4] - Reference view: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [4] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,010 - 79,290 yuan, down 905 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, giving the market strong expectations. The raw material impact is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [5] - Reference view: Affected by the external market, Shanghai copper may open sharply lower. It is recommended to keep the strategy unchanged [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 1,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: Lithium ore prices are unchanged, and inventory has increased. Supply is growing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6][7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Reference view: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will oscillate at a low level [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (washed coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is still sluggish, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to loose supply, coking coal and coke will rebound weakly at a low level with limited space [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 786 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 787 yuan [10] - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is weak both domestically and overseas, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the U.S. dollar index provides some support [10] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: After the U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - attacked, global capital markets tumbled, and crude oil prices dropped more than 10% during the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the U.S. PMI data in February contracted [11] - Reference view: The WTI main contract will experience a sharp decline after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline in the domestic market [11] Group 10: Rubber - Spot information: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 16,350 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" have affected China's tire and automobile exports, causing rubber prices to fall. Domestically, full - latex rubber production is gradually resuming, and the global rubber supply and demand are both loose [13] - Reference view: Rubber prices will mainly oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline after the holiday [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,900 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [14] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise start - up rate has increased. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and inventory has decreased. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [14] - Reference view: In the short term, lacking fundamental positive drivers, the futures price will oscillate at a low level [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,471.56 yuan/ton, down 1.57 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - Market analysis: The soda ash start - up rate has increased, production has risen, and factory inventory has accumulated. Social inventory has decreased slightly. Demand is average, and there is resistance to high - price goods [15] - Reference view: Before the holiday, the 05 contract fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [15]