立高食品股份有限公司相关债券 中鹏信评【2025】跟踪第【354】号 01 信用评级报告声明 除因本次评级事项本评级机构与评级对象构成委托关系外，本评级机构及评级从业人员与评级对象不存 在任何足以影响评级行为独立、客观、公正的关联关系。 本评级机构与评级从业人员已履行尽职调查义务，有充分理由保证所出具的评级报告遵循了真实、客 观、 公正原则，但不对评级对象及其相关方提供或已正式对外公布信息的合法性、真实性、准确性和完整性 作任何保证。 本评级机构依据内部信用评级标准和工作程序对评级结果作出独立判断，不受任何组织或个人的影响。 本评级报告观点仅为本评级机构对评级对象信用状况的个体意见，不作为购买、出售、持有任何证券的 建议。本评级机构不对任何机构或个人因使用本评级报告及评级结果而导致的任何损失负责。 本次评级结果自本评级报告所注明日期起生效，有效期为被评证券的存续期。同时，本评级机构已对受 评对象的跟踪评级事项做出了明确安排，并有权在被评证券存续期间变更信用评级。本评级机构提醒报 告使用者应及时登陆本公司网站关注被评证券信用评级的变化情况。 本评级报告版权归本评级机构所有，未经授权不得修改、复制、转载和出售。除 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Nagel, expressed uncertainty regarding whether tariffs exert inflationary pressure or suppress inflation [1] - The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East and U.S. trade policies are contributing to market uncertainty [1]

Group 1 - The Middle East tensions are raising concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to significant declines in the global bond market, particularly in Europe [1][4] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.40%, as traders reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - European bonds experienced more pronounced declines, with the German 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 2.56%, reflecting the region's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations [1][5] Group 2 - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt shipping and exacerbate market concerns over energy supply and inflation [4] - Analysts believe that a $10 increase in oil prices could raise the HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) by 0.25 percentage points within a quarter in Europe [5] - The U.S. may benefit from its status as a net energy exporter, but geopolitical uncertainties still provide reasons for the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [6][7]

海外经济：动能趋弱 美国经济内生动能趋弱。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速回落0.4pct至3.4%。 个人消费（PCE）增速回落0.6pct至1.9%，主要来自服务分项（1.5%）拖累；私人投资（不含库存）增速回落 0.8pct至0.4%，地产（-4.4%）及建筑（-3.4%）分项加速收缩。 就业形势依然稳健。 周频首次申领失业金人数回落0.3万至24.5万，符合季节性水平。 中东局势恶化增加通胀 压力。 Truflation日频通胀指数上行8bp至2.14%。 财政政策保持扩张立场。 周频财政盈余达到$185亿，弱于季节性水平，财政力度稳定强于历史同期。 货币政策保持观望立场。 美联储于6月议息会议按兵不动，点阵图显示7/18位委员预测年内无法降息，2/18位 委员预测降息1次（25bp），8/18位委员预测降息2次（50bp），2/18位官员预测降息3次（75bp）。 由于地缘冲突主要在周末激化，上周海外市场表现较为平淡，美元小幅反弹，美债利率震荡，黄金高位回落， 人民币延续偏稳行情。 美股方面，上周美股基本持平上涨0.1%。我们认为关税冲击最大的阶段已经过去，美股较大可能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, which has escalated the geopolitical risks and driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, opening near the $3400 mark and briefly rising by nearly $30 (0.8%) before retreating to around $3365.62, reflecting the impact of heightened geopolitical risks on market sentiment [1][3] - The current market dynamics are reminiscent of the early stages of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict, where initial optimism was followed by prolonged geopolitical instability, suggesting that the situation may evolve similarly [3] Group 2 - Support levels for gold are identified at $3360, $3350, and $3340, with potential declines below these levels leading to further drops to $3330 and $3320 [4] - Resistance levels are noted at $3370, $3380, and $3390, with a significant psychological barrier at $3400, which, if breached, could lead to targets of $3420 and $3430 [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions, is creating additional market variables that could influence gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy remains sluggish despite improvements in the business environment, with a projected GDP growth rate of only 0.1% for the second quarter [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - According to the initial PMI survey data, business activity growth is stagnating, indicating a lack of significant recovery in the economy [1] - Business confidence has declined again in June compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing concerns about government policies and global trade protectionism [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employment numbers continue to decrease as companies face higher labor costs, lower demand, and diminished confidence stemming from last autumn's budget [1] - The stagnation in growth, declining employment, and lower inflation rates may lead the Bank of England to consider another interest rate cut in its upcoming policy meeting in August [1]

Group 1 - Asian markets opened lower on Monday, with both currencies and stock markets declining due to heightened investor panic following the U.S. attack on Iran, which has raised concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies [1] - The South Korean won led the decline among Asian currencies, contributing to a 0.3% drop in the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index, while the Indonesian rupiah also weakened, prompting the central bank to intervene in the market [1] - Brent crude oil prices are nearing $80 per barrel, leading to inflationary pressures globally and impacting economic growth, particularly for net oil-importing Asian currencies [1] Group 2 - The 30-day correlation between Brent crude futures and the Asian Dollar Spot Index has reached -0.45, the most negative since March 2022, indicating potential risk linkage effects [2] - According to Wells Fargo, the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Philippine peso are likely to be the most affected currencies, with concentrated long positions in the won and baht potentially leading to short-term weakness [2] - Concerns over the U.S. potentially revoking export exemptions for technology to China have led to significant sell-offs in chip stocks, particularly impacting the Taiwanese stock market [2]

就市场传出"封盘"和产品分红的消息，6月22日，百亿量化私募宽德投资发布了相关说明。 宽德投资回应"封盘"传闻 此前，有媒体报道称，据渠道人士透露，宽德投资将在6月30日全渠道进行"封盘"；近期宽德 投资对旗下部分产品进行分红，单位净值归"1"。 6月22日晚间，宽德投资在官微发布了《关于宽德投资产品运作安排的说明》。近期，公司的 部分渠道募集节奏调整，市场对公司基金产品运作情况有所关注，同时也有投资人针对产品 分红等安排提出询问。 针对产品"封盘"的说法，宽德投资表示， 目前公司层面并无统一"封盘"计划， 当前部分合作 渠道针对产品募集节奏所做的阶段性调整，旨在更好地匹配策略承载能力，力争持续为投资 者带来良好体验。 宽德投资称，在合理控制同类策略新增规模的同时，公司将结合市场环境与运作安排，稳妥 推进产品的后续开放。敬请投资者理性看待，合理评估自身配置方案。 值得注意的是，衍复投资并非今年首个主动暂停新客申购的头部私募。 5月30日，睿郡资产发布公告称，公司董承非管理的产品自6月8日起暂停接受新客户申购申 请，恢复申购的时间将另行通知，存量客户的申购业务不受影响。 据中国基金报报道，这是董承非"公奔私"三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent operations and economic data indicate a mixed but generally supportive environment for the bond market, with expectations of further actions to stimulate the economy and manage interest rates [1][20]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted net withdrawal operations last week, leading to fluctuations in the funding environment due to tax payments and MLF maturities [1]. - Economic data released during the week exceeded expectations, contributing to a slight adjustment in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by approximately 0.5 basis points to 1.64% [1][4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is set to exceed 580 billion yuan, with net financing expected to surpass 500 billion yuan, marking the highest levels since December 2024 and February 2025 [1][8]. Bond Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed declines across various maturities, with the 1-year and 2-year yields decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.7 basis points, respectively [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.44 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields across the curve [3][4]. Trading Activity - The trading of long-term government bonds has seen strong buying interest, with the 30-year futures contract rising by 0.71% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.14% [6]. - The overall bond market remains in a favorable environment, although further declines in interest rates may require additional catalysts such as central bank bond purchases [1][20]. Economic Data Insights - Industrial output and service sector growth have shown positive trends, with industrial value-added output growing by 5.8% year-on-year in May, and retail sales increasing by 6.4% [16][17]. - Fixed asset investment also demonstrated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the first five months of the year [18]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current favorable conditions in the bond market are supported by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with expectations for a potential "bond bull" market [20]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank is viewed as a long-term positive, although short-term impacts may vary [21].

Group 1 - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have heightened market volatility and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and oil [1][2]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening near $3400 and reaching a peak of $3398.02 before settling at $3365.62, reflecting a 0.2% increase amid rising risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. dollar index rose to a near three-week high of 99.23, driven by safe-haven flows, while U.S. stock index futures initially fell by nearly 1% [1][2]. Group 2 - Central banks globally continued to purchase gold in the first half of 2025, supporting the bullish trend in gold prices despite geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [2]. - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts later in the year are expected to maintain a favorable environment for gold prices, with expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of the year [2]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to further increases in oil prices and inflationary pressures globally [2]. Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a bearish trend, with resistance levels identified at $3375 and potential support around $3340 [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling at higher levels, particularly around $3375-$3380, while considering buying opportunities near $3340-$3345 [5]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with traders advised to monitor key economic indicators such as U.S. PCE data and PMI figures from Europe and the U.S. [2][5].