化工日报 | 2025-06-25 以伊冲突缓和，聚酯产业链大幅回落 市场要闻与数据 6月24日，PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约分别下跌4.57%4.17%、3.03%、3.69%、3.82%，主要原因是伊朗和以色列 停战下原油大跌，截至收盘时原油主力合约SC2508跌幅达到9%(跌停)。 周末美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，伊朗对美国的回击力度有限仅仅袭击了卡塔尔一个空的美军基地且在袭击前提前通 知美国随后，周二特朗普宣布伊以两国停火，战争将快速结束。局势显著缓和后，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油 溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带动能源板块整体下跌。 同时，伊朗的石化装置正在逐步重启中，周一隆众资讯消息称，伊朗因战争因素停车的一套EG装置正在重启，据 悉伊朗境内其他乙二醇装置近期也将陆续重启。PX装置暂没有消息，但若停战，预计也会陆续重启，市场担忧情 绪明显缓解。聚酯产业链期货产品也将重新回归基本面交易，关注前期原料高价下的聚酯减产计划在原料下跌后 还能否兑现；另外PX基本面依然偏紧但市场商谈氛围已有所回落。后期宏观方面7月还有OPEC+会议:关税延期时 限到期等需要关注，地缘端也需要关注 ...

Recent Price Fluctuations - As of June 25, 2025, the international gold price is reported at $3322.93 per ounce, a drop of $46 (1.37%) from the previous day, marking a two-week low [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased to 1012 yuan per gram, with a daily drop of 8 yuan, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market price has fallen to 785 yuan per gram [1] - Compared to early April, when gold prices peaked at 1033 yuan per gram due to risk aversion, the recent cumulative decline exceeds 20% [1] Reasons for the Decline - The easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran by Trump, has led to a significant reduction in safe-haven demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with Powell indicating the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, has delayed interest rate cuts until September [3] - Technical factors have also played a role, as gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3350, triggering programmatic selling [4] Core Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical events and risk aversion have historically driven gold prices, with conflicts in the Middle East causing spikes in gold prices. The recent ceasefire has led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach and a strong dollar are putting downward pressure on gold prices [6] - The U.S. fiscal deficit, potentially increased by Trump's "big and beautiful" plan by $2.8 trillion, could be a long-term positive for gold [7] - Inflationary pressures from tariffs, with an average U.S. tariff rate of 16%, are currently exerting short-term pressure on gold prices due to delayed transmission effects [8] Consumption and Investment Trends - Investment options include gold ETFs, which have low entry barriers and high liquidity, making them suitable for ordinary investors [10] - Bank paper gold offers no storage costs and supports regular investment, appealing to long-term savers [10] - Physical gold provides psychological security but comes with high premiums and low liquidity, attracting those with inheritance needs or extreme risk aversion [10] Future Outlook - Short-term (1-3 months): Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3300-$3400 range, with potential breakthroughs dependent on escalations in Middle Eastern conflicts or signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [12] - Key observation points include Powell's congressional testimony on June 25 and the stability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement [13][14] - Long-term (2026): Predictions vary significantly, with bullish forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggesting gold could reach $4000 due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit, while bearish views from Citigroup predict a drop to $2500 due to weak investment demand [15][16]

核心观点 中东地缘局势反复（以色列与伊朗互相指责）持续扰动全球市场，但A股周二仍录得显著上涨，上证指数呈现技术性突破迹象。市场焦点转向此次突破的可 持续性，核心在于能否吸引增量机构资金入场。量化数据显示，当前机构在关键品种中掌握"核心交易"优势，其节奏把控是后续行情演进的关键。 一、市场背景：地缘扰动边际递减，技术突破初显 中东局势再现反复（以色列指控伊朗撕毁协议，伊朗否认），信息混乱加剧短期波动。历史经验表明，地缘政治复杂性高，过度依赖其作为操作基准 风险较大。当前阶段，各方实质性行动升级概率或低于预期。 二、资金行为：情绪回暖，但机构保持克制 今日市场情绪显著回暖： 技术层面，上证指数今日放量突破近期震荡箱体，领涨力量为"金融+科技"组合——该组合亦是去年9月底市场突破的主力，为技术形态提供初步积极 信号。 美联储降息预期升温构成潜在利好：近日美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼释放鸽派信号（提及7月降息可能性），推动美股上涨。此举或与未来美联储人事布局 预期相关，但需警惕预期提前透支及潜在反向操作风险（如拉高后做空）。美联储动向是重要外因，但A股突破持续性更需依赖内资决心。 "做多主导"覆盖个股数达3890家，创近期新 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. Core Views Benzene Ethylene - The market price of pure benzene has significantly declined. The international oil price dropped sharply due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and pure benzene followed suit. Benzene ethylene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and its supply - demand balance may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue its downward trend and should be treated bearishly [1][4]. Polyolefins - For PE, it is expected to be range - bound, and for PP, a bearish stance on the single - side trading is recommended. PP has high production due to short - term maintenance recovery and new production, and both PE and PP are affected by the off - season in demand [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the current spot price is falling and is still in the process of finding a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see. For PVC, although there is a short - term price increase, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. A mid - term short - selling strategy is suggested [11][15]. Urea - The core driver is the strengthening of the oversupply pattern and the deterioration of market sentiment. The supply is high and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short positions in the short term. One can wait for a turning point to enter the market at a low price [39]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on PX09 in the short term. For PTA, it should be treated with caution and bearishly. For ethylene glycol, a short - term callback is expected. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak. For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement [43]. Methanol - The methanol market is mainly driven by the easing of the Iranian situation. The previous premium due to geopolitical factors has been reversed. One should pay attention to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian plants. The inland supply is tight, and it is a seasonal off - season for demand. Short - term observation is recommended [47]. Crude Oil - The short - term oil price is in a downward trend. The market logic has shifted from geopolitics to fundamental supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait for a clearer signal, and the support and pressure levels for different oil types are given [50]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Benzene Ethylene Upstream - Brent crude oil (August) on June 24 was $67.1/barrel, down $4.3 or 6.1% from June 23. CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 8.7% to $586/ton. CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at $850/ton [1]. Spot & Futures - The East China spot price of benzene ethylene on June 24 was 7815 yuan/ton, down 4.3% from June 23. EB2507 and EB2508 also declined, with decreases of 4.6% and 4.7% respectively [2]. Overseas Quotes & Import Profit - Benzene ethylene CFR China on June 24 was $910/ton, down 3.7% from June 23. The import profit was 218.2 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Chain开工率 & Profit - The domestic pure benzene comprehensive开工率 increased by 1.2% to 80.4%. The benzene ethylene开工率 rose by 7.0% to 79.0%. The integrated profit of benzene ethylene decreased by 76.8% to 50.1 yuan/ton [4]. Polyolefins Price & Spread - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined on June 24 compared to June 23. The spreads between different contracts also changed, and the spot prices of some products decreased [8]. Upstream & Downstream开工率 - The PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.60% to 78.7%, and the PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6% [8]. Inventory - PE企业库存 decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP企业库存 increased by 4.52% to 60.8 million tons [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures - The East China market price of PVC decreased. The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged [11]. Overseas Quotes & Export Profit - The FOB price of PVC in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at $590/ton, and the export profit decreased by 100.9% to - 28.4 yuan/ton [12]. Supply - The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 0.2% to 85.8%, and the PVC总开工率 decreased by 0.1% to 76.7% [13]. Demand - The开工率 of the alumina industry decreased by 0.5% to 79.9%, and the开工率 of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles decreased [14][15]. Inventory - The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 6.7% to 21.4 million tons, and the PVC总社会库存 remained basically unchanged [15]. Urea Futures - Urea futures prices declined on June 24 compared to June 23. The spreads between different contracts also changed, and the long - and short - position holdings of the top 20 changed [39]. Upstream Raw Materials - The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and thermal coal remained unchanged [39]. Spot Market - The prices of small - particle urea in different regions showed different degrees of change, and the cross - regional spreads also changed [39]. Supply - Demand - The domestic daily urea production decreased slightly. The production of coal - based urea decreased by 0.69% to 15.84 million tons, and the production of gas - based urea remained unchanged [39]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48, DTY150/48, and other polyester product prices changed on June 24 compared to June 23. The cash flows of some products also changed [43]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX decreased by 4.4% to $858/ton, and the PX - naphtha spread was $16/ton [43]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The East China spot price of PTA decreased by 3.0% to 5100 yuan/ton, and the PTA futures prices also declined [43]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - The East China spot price of MEG decreased by 2.5% to 4597 yuan/ton, and the MEG futures prices also declined [43]. Industry Chain开工率 - The开工 rate of Asian PX decreased by 1.7% to 74.3%, and the开工 rate of PTA decreased by 3.5% to 79.1% [43]. Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 and MA2509 closed lower on June 24 compared to June 23. The spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [47]. Inventory - Methanol企业库存 decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, and methanol港口库存 decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons [47]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased by 3.06% to 77.44%, and the downstream外采MTO装置开工率 decreased by 6.28% to 80.46% [47]. Crude Oil Price and Spread - Brent crude oil decreased by 6.07% to $67.14/barrel, and WTI increased by 1.09% to $65.07/barrel on June 25 compared to June 24 [50]. Refined Oil Price and Spread - NYM RBOB increased by 0.84% to 210.32 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 10.09% to $668.25/ton [50]. Crack Spread - The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions showed different degrees of change [50].

Core Insights - The global investment landscape is undergoing significant changes due to geopolitical divisions and policy-driven economies, prompting family offices to rethink their investment strategies [1] - A survey of 175 family offices managing over $300 billion in assets reveals their responses to geopolitical volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Geopolitical Influence - Family offices initially held a cautious view of the economy but became more pessimistic after April 3, with 62% expressing a negative outlook on the global economy [2] - 84% of family offices identified the current geopolitical landscape as a key challenge affecting their investment decisions, with 64% seeking to diversify their portfolios [2][4] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Prior to April 3, 72% of family offices had already adjusted or planned to adjust their investment allocations, with 94% actively seeking adjustment opportunities [2] - Post-April 3, family offices are less likely to make significant changes to their allocations due to policy uncertainty, focusing instead on tactical risk and opportunity assessments [4] Importance of Diversification - Diversification has become more critical, with traditional strategies failing as U.S. assets often move in sync [5] - Family offices are increasingly looking for uncorrelated sources of returns to enhance portfolio resilience [5] Alternative Investments - Alternative investments are gaining importance, with 72% of family offices citing high fees as a significant challenge [7] - Family offices are particularly interested in private credit, which constitutes 15%-30% of some portfolios, with over 51% optimistic about its prospects [11][13] Infrastructure Investments - Infrastructure investments are viewed positively, with 75% of family offices optimistic about this asset class, which offers inflation-linked returns and stable cash flows [15] - 30% of family offices plan to increase their infrastructure allocations by 2025-2026, aiming for a target of 10% by year-end [15] OCIO Model Adoption - Family offices are increasingly considering the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) model to streamline relationships with investment managers [17] - Approximately 22% of family offices have used or considered using OCIO services, with varying preferences based on generational involvement [17] AI Integration Challenges - Family offices are curious about AI but face barriers in implementation, including a lack of clarity on applications and concerns over data privacy [20] - Currently, 45% of family offices are more likely to invest in tech companies developing AI solutions rather than deploying AI internally [21] Future Outlook - Family offices recognize the potential of AI to enhance investment outcomes but acknowledge the need for further efforts to prepare for its integration [24]

每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78420，基差-220，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月24日铜库存减1200至94675吨，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运 行为主. 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited strategic metal reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, coupled with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. Geopolitical tensions and China's export controls on tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have exacerbated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a sustained upward price trend for small metals [12][15][17] - In May 2025, the overall non-ferrous metals sector saw a moderate increase, with precious metals (gold) and strategic small metals (rare earths, tungsten) leading the gains. The geopolitical situation has intensified, causing a decline in risk appetite in international financial markets, which has driven gold prices higher as a traditional safe-haven asset [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas: Supply-Demand Conflicts and Geopolitical Impact - The small metals market is currently hot, with prices rising due to limited reserves and high extraction difficulty. The rapid growth in demand from new energy and military sectors, along with geopolitical tensions, has intensified supply-demand conflicts [12][15] 2. Small Metals Price Increase Cycle and Strategic Resource Valuation - Small metals are experiencing a significant price increase, with tungsten concentrate prices reaching historical highs of 169,000 yuan/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increasing by 57.02%. The main drivers include limited reserves, high extraction costs, and increased demand from various industries [15][17] 3. Market Trends: Macroeconomic Sentiment Recovery and Non-Ferrous Sector Growth - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a recovery in May, with small metals leading the way. The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic recovery [12][46] 4. Policy Changes: Global Policies on Key Mineral Resource Protection and Development - Multiple countries are implementing policies to protect and develop key mineral resources, including the U.S. signing a "mineral agreement" with Ukraine and South Africa launching a critical minerals strategy. China is also taking measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals [13][27] 5. Key Industry and Company Developments - Harmony Gold's acquisition of Macarthur Copper for $1.03 billion and other significant mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector are noted. Companies are using diverse capital strategies to strengthen resource control and optimize capacity [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings as a strategic response to economic and geopolitical pressures, with significant implications for U.S.-China relations and global financial markets [1][6][10] - Since 2022, China has consistently reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings, with a total reduction of $1,732 billion in 2022, $508 billion in 2023, and $573 billion projected for 2024, indicating a long-term trend of decreasing reliance on U.S. debt [1][8] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of April 2025, raising concerns about debt servicing pressures and the risk of default, which could lead to significant fluctuations in bond prices and market rates [3][4] Group 2 - The current U.S. economic landscape is characterized by slowing GDP growth, rising inflation, and increasing unemployment, prompting political pressure for interest rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption [4][10] - The reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China has contributed to market volatility, leading to a sell-off in U.S. equities and heightened fears regarding interest rate changes, despite reassurances from U.S. Treasury officials [6][10] - The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to be challenging, as both sides seek to balance their core interests while addressing complex economic issues, which could significantly impact global economic stability [10]

Group 1: Recent Market Volatility - Global stock markets have shown alternating rises and falls, with accelerated sector rotation since June 2025 [2] - A-shares are fluctuating between 3200-3500 points, with growth stocks like new energy and semiconductors experiencing increased volatility, while defensive sectors like banks and consumer goods remain stable [2] - The Nasdaq index has seen daily fluctuations exceeding 2% due to tech stock earnings reports, with Federal Reserve policy expectations being a focal point [2][3] Group 2: Core Reasons for Market Fluctuations - Uncertainty in global economic recovery is evident, with the U.S. experiencing easing inflation pressures but volatile employment data, leading to debates on the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5] - European economies face recession risks due to fluctuating energy prices and weak manufacturing [5] - China's economic recovery is mixed, with consumer and investment rebounds but ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector affecting market confidence [6][7] Group 3: Policy Adjustments and Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve's June 2025 FOMC meeting signaled a hawkish stance, cooling rate cut expectations and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, which suppresses risk assets [8] - In China, the A-share market is influenced by the "New National Nine Articles," which strengthen dividend requirements for listed companies, putting pressure on some high-valuation growth stocks [9][10] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment - Ongoing disruptions in energy and food supply chains due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are exacerbating global inflation expectations [11][12] - The U.S.-China relationship impacts foreign investment risk appetite in A-shares, with rising investor caution reflected in the VIX index [12] Group 5: Fund Flows and Institutional Adjustments - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have slowed, with significant net outflows on certain trading days [13] - Institutional investors are reducing holdings in high-valuation sectors, shifting towards low-valuation, high-dividend assets [13] Group 6: Divergence in Corporate Earnings Expectations - Some AI and semiconductor companies are reporting earnings below expectations, putting pressure on the Nasdaq index [14] - Domestic consumption recovery is weak, with sectors like liquor and home appliances experiencing slowed growth [14] Group 7: Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - Diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with single assets, including a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds [16] - Focus on high-dividend, low-valuation assets such as banks and utilities is advised for conservative investors [16] - Implementing a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging in index funds, can help smooth market volatility [17][18] - Maintaining a cash reserve of 30%-50% during high uncertainty allows for flexibility in investment opportunities [19] - A long-term perspective is crucial to avoid emotional trading and capitalize on the inherent value of quality assets [20] Group 8: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The stock market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by monetary policy decisions, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and further easing in China [20]

中东地缘对 LPG 影响 20250624 摘要 以伊冲突缓和后，地缘政治溢价消退，布伦特原油预计震荡走弱，难以 重回 80 美元/桶高位。OPEC 持续增产，需求端受中美贸易谈判不确定 性影响，基本面压力或导致油价趋势性回落。 特朗普政府及重新上任后，其压低油价言论对市场影响显著，是观察地 缘政治和供需变化的重要因素。其意外表态常能引发市场波动，对未来 预期产生重要影响。 液化气（LPG）市场与原油价格联动，受贸易战和地缘政治缓和影响， 价格呈现走弱趋势。未来 LPG 市场走势可能继续受全球经济环境及相关 能源价格波动影响，维持疲软状态。 油价通过碳四价格传导影响液化气市场。原油价格影响汽油价格，进而 影响调油料（如烷基化和 MTBE），这些调油料的上游原料是碳四，最 终影响液化气价格。 碳四在液化气期货市场中的重要性增加，因其可作为交割品。近期原油 及其衍生品波动加剧，使得市场更关注由原油到成品油再到醚后碳四的 链条变化，而非单纯关注海外 CP 丙烷期货。 Q&A 近期中东地缘政治局势对原油市场的影响如何？ 从今年 6 月开始，中东地缘政治局势对原油市场产生了显著影响。6 月 11 日， 美国宣布撤离其在 ...