2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡市2026 ...

原油周报：高波动&宽震荡 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周国际原油市场呈现高波动、宽幅震荡特征，主要受美伊地缘政治谈判反复主导，叠加宏观需求担忧与供应面 信号，油价整体先跌后反弹，但周线仍录得下跌，终结此前连续上涨势头。后期来看，地缘仍然是短期内交易重 点，美国-伊朗谈判短时间达成初步共识的可能性较小，后期来看，若谈判实质进展，风险溢价快速消退，油价易 进一步下探60-62美元区间；若局势再度紧张或破裂，价格可能快速上冲68-70美元上方，美国伊朗谈判的具体分 析，可关注《美伊百年恩怨与当下博弈——历史、谈判与全球能源风险全解析》专题报告。 【策略】 单边：宽幅震 ...

目录 LPG液化气周报：重点关注美伊谈判 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 87/87/87 【策略】 单边：宽幅震荡。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。(观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据) 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周液化气在前期一波下跌后区间震荡。海外市场来看，中东货源仍然持续偏紧，3月沙特CP价格再次上行，叠加伊 朗局势的不明朗，中东价格仍然居高不下。欧美方面，寒潮导致美国丙烷持续去库，前期价格在天然气的带领下驱动上 行，但供应充足。国内方面，供应端虽到港量偏少，但是炼厂外放气增加；需求端，燃烧需求仍在旺季，但化工需求方 面偏弱，由于进口价格较高，利润较差，PDH开工率较历史同期低位。 后市来看，炼厂外放气或有小幅下降， ...

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's main contract dropped to $67 per barrel, and WTI crude oil price also fell to around $63 per barrel. Geopolitical events have a phased and intermittent impact on oil prices, and the oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with expected continued volatility [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue a strong trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and a tight supply - demand pattern, while low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from refinery issues, increased supply, and weakening demand during the shipping off - season [21] - The production of asphalt in February is expected to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month, with improved consumption. The price is expected to be strong, and the cracking spread may continue to rise [22] - Urea production is increasing, with some agricultural demand starting and industrial demand declining. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [23] - Methanol's overseas and domestic device operations have changed, with coastal demand weakening and inventory transfer. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by overseas situations [24] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals rebounded on Friday. The US economic data was mixed, and the market is waiting for non - farm payrolls and CPI data to reassess the prospects of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical uncertainties remain, and short - term precious metals are in a volatile stage [2] - Copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level last week. The contract spreads in spring and the second quarter are in a positive market arrangement, and post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure prices and then lead to an upward exploration [3] - Aluminum prices oscillated on Friday night. The spot premium and discount varied in different regions, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating with adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - Zinc prices oscillated at a high level, with a support level at 24,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [7] - Lead prices continued to decline. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand weakened, and the market is expected to be weak before the festival, with opportunities for low - buying to be awaited [8] - Nickel prices fell, and the stainless - steel market had weak actual transactions. The inventory of steel mills is low, and traders are reluctant to lower prices, but market sentiment is panicked [9] - Tin prices declined unilaterally last week. It is recommended to trade with a light position this week, and pay attention to inventory changes during and after the festival [10] - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated weakly. The market participation is affected by exchange policies, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [11] - The production capacity of domestic alumina is decreasing, and the balance has improved but the oversupply situation is hard to change. The basis is low, and the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6] - The price of industrial silicon is under pressure. The implementation of emission reduction goals and the reduction of polysilicon production may affect supply and demand, and the market sentiment is weak [13] - Iron ore prices fell last week. The supply and demand are relatively loose, with a certain improvement expectation on the margin, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [15] - Coke and coking coal prices oscillated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is at a low level. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [16][17] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The supply and demand of both are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market expectations [18][19] Group 3: Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon industry is in a new round of in - depth adjustment, with the problem of supply - demand mismatch not resolved. The inventory shows a differentiated performance, and the short - term price may oscillate strongly [12] - The price of styrene is affected by factors such as increased production and post - holiday supply uncertainties [26] - The supply of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - holiday supply is tight. The demand is weakening, and the support from the demand side is further reduced [27] - PVC prices declined, with inventory changes and cost support. The export situation is good, and the price is expected to rise. Caustic soda is running weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [28] - PX and PTA prices oscillated with oil prices. There are opportunities for long - positions in PX in the first half of the year, but the current demand is weak, and the processing margin may be under pressure [29] - Ethylene glycol inventory is increasing, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, but the long - term is under pressure [30] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but the downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip has a certain improvement in processing margin, and there are opportunities for positive spreads in the medium - term [31] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The market expects changes in the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina and the ending inventory of US soybeans. The short - term soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35] - The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as macro risks, export expectations, and policies. It is necessary to pay attention to risk control [36] - The price of soybeans oscillated. The policy promotes the improvement of domestic soybean production, and the market supply has increased marginally [37] - Corn futures are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to risks [38] - The price of live pigs dropped significantly over the weekend, and the supply pressure is high. The price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [39] - The egg price has the power to repair upwards in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point of the spot price around the Spring Festival and then configure long - positions [40] - The price of cotton is expected to oscillate. The global supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is general [41] - The price of sugar is affected by the production progress in India and Thailand and the production expectations in Guangxi. The short - term price faces pressure [42] - The price of apples oscillated. The market focus is on the demand side, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the de - stocking speed [43] - The price of wood is at a low level. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is recommended to wait and see [44] - The price of pulp declined last week. The inventory is increasing, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [45] Group 5: Others - The container shipping index (European line) oscillated last week. The pre - holiday market is stable, and the post - holiday market has some positive expectations. The near - month contracts are expected to turn to an oscillatory pattern, and the far - month contracts may be under pressure [20] - The A - share market continued to decline with reduced trading volume, and the stock index futures contracts all closed down. The market may recover this week, and there may be structural rotations [46] - The bond market has opportunities under the influence of risk - aversion sentiment. The trend of TL is unclear, while other varieties are relatively strong [47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

能源化工日报 2026-02-09 2026/02/09 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 我们认为当前甲醇已经计价相当部分的利空因子，海外地缘短期仍有波动概率，前期布空止盈， 短期观望为主。 yanzs@wkqh.cn 2026/02/09 尿素 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：山东变动 10 元/吨，河南变动 0 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/吨，湖北变动 0 元/吨， 江苏变动 10 元/吨，山西变动 0 元/吨，东北变动 0 元/吨，总体基差报-16 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-2 元/吨，报 1776 元/吨。 【策略观点】 我 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 数据分析:本周EIA数据,原油数据编利多,在冬季风暴"费恩"的影响下,美国原油产量显著回落至 1321.5万桶/日,而表需反而有所提升,整体呈现出阶段性去摩,商业库存较上周去库345.5万桶。而下 游端,族厂本周加功率固备别装置意外停机而有所下滑,下游成品海签体需求周环比大幅提升,但汽油 周度环比下滑,主因上周消费者担心天气恶劣而提前加油而导致甚敏较高所致。 风险提示:俄乌美和谈成果;美国和以色列后续谈判进展 4 3 3 2 | | 0.99 | 93 第一份 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/1/30 | 蒸发 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第71 | CLI | 63.55 | 63.55 | 65.21 | -2.55% | | | CL2 | 63. 38 | 63.36 | 64.74 | -2 13V | | Brent | COL | 68.05 | 68.05 | 70. 69 | -3. 73% | | | CO2 | 67.47 | 67.47 | ...

记者在首府努克采访的几天里，明显感受到了这种变化。过去，当地民众见面时，谈论的多是天气、海 冰厚度和捕捞季节。而现在，"美国那边又说了什么"已成为日常话题。语气不算激烈，但透着挥之不去 的不安。 这种不安，正在慢慢改变格陵兰岛人的生活方式。有人开始在家中准备应急食品和常用药品；格陵兰岛 自治政府也罕见地提醒居民，留意可能出现的断电、断网情况；电视和社交媒体上，与美国有关的消息 反复滚动；一些商铺则在门口挂起"格陵兰岛不出售"的标语。 在努克机场工作的当地居民西克宁努瓦克告诉记者，近一个月来，她几乎每天都能看到来自不同国家的 军人抵达机场，这令她格外不安，也让当地气氛更加紧张。 "最开始是震惊，接着是害怕，现在更多的是愤怒。"机场空中交通管制员奥勒·约特这样描述过去一年 的心理变化。他回忆，大约一年前，特朗普的儿子到访努克，向路人分发印有"让美国再次伟大"字样的 帽子。许多人以为那只是"一场拙劣的政治表演……后来我们才意识到，他们并不是在开玩笑"。 学生马利克·谢贝尔告诉记者，一开始，他并没有把特朗普的言论当成真正的威胁。"那时候听起来更像 是疯话。"谢贝尔说，"但当他说到'吞并'，我们突然意识到，这件事也许真 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future week, asphalt prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost - end crude oil. The main factor influencing crude oil is geopolitics, but small - scale geopolitical frictions cannot reverse the weak fundamentals and oversupply situation of crude oil. [1] - Due to the continuous slump in domestic diesel prices and the large inventory pressure of refined oil in some Shandong refineries, the suppression of asphalt by full - storage may lead to a smooth decline in prices when the rigid demand after the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations. [1] - As the holiday approaches, the trading enthusiasm of asphalt may gradually fade, and investors need to pay attention to position risk control before the festival. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As the holiday approaches, the spot - end has "celebrated the New Year in advance", and the demand has dropped to zero. The previous continuous premium increase in the futures market has not been fully followed by the spot market. [1] - The increase in the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has led some Shandong refineries to switch to other heavy - oil resources. The so - called raw material shortage is not the key factor restricting the refinery's operating rate, but it does have a certain impact on the long - term cost valuation. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The update of the basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations is suspended due to compliance requirements. The update of the recent strategy review is also suspended. [10] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the coming month is 2800 - 3150 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.63% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.76%. [10] - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce capital costs. [10] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums. [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East have increased the upward elasticity of crude oil prices, and the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has risen. [11][13] - **Negative Information**: No specific negative information was provided in the text. - **Spot Transaction Information**: This week, asphalt prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the futures market were favorable, and there was some rush - work demand in the south. However, in the north, the rigid demand stagnated, and the overall sales volume decreased. [15][16] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Geopolitical situation changes, including the latest shipping and arrival logistics of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil, the export and shipment of Russian crude oil, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the changes in floating storage inventory at sea. [17][22] - The progress and results of the subsequent US - Iran negotiations. [22] - The end of the asphalt consumption peak season, with demand under pressure. [17] - The US may cause the geopolitical premium of crude oil to decline by urging Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue. [17] - The US may issue more threats of imposing tariffs under the pretext of national security. [17] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the asphalt futures price showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key asphalt seats has decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future market. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [18] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure weakened, with the futures market at a premium. Frequent geopolitical disturbances supported market activity through low - price contract resources despite weak demand. [21] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The absolute price of asphalt jumped due to geopolitical factors, but the calendar spread structure remained in a weak C - structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the approaching off - season. [39] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Coking Material Market**: As of February 5th (compared with January 29th), the price of Shandong coking materials increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3650 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the refined oil market was positive, and the replenishment enthusiasm of middle - and lower - stream users was high, leading to a slight rebound in coking material prices. [43] - **Asphalt Market**: The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the previous strong crude oil price supported the asphalt futures market, the weak demand led to few spot transactions. In the short term, the off - season demand and the planned resumption of production of some refineries may lead to a further decline in asphalt prices. [43] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 395 - 405 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3180 - 3260 yuan/ton. Although the price of South Korean asphalt in February increased compared with January, it still has a price advantage, and the import volume in January and February remained high. [52] - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 490 - 510 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3870 - 4030 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 465 - 475 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3680 - 3760 yuan/ton. The price increase in the Singapore market was driven by crude oil and fuel oil, but the trading atmosphere has cooled down due to the decrease in rush - work demand. [52] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic Production**: In 2025, China's asphalt production was 28.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of PetroChina refineries increased by 33% year - on - year, Sinopec's decreased by 12% year - on - year, CNOOC's increased by 13% year - on - year, and local refineries' increased by 19% year - on - year. [55] - **Import**: The import volume of South Korean and other regions' asphalt remained at a relatively high level, and the price of some brands' March shipments continued to rise. [52] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Most regions' demand has decreased due to temperature and the approaching holiday, and the operating rate of modified asphalt plants has continued to decline. [80] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast, Northwest, and North China continued to store winter - storage resources; the inventory in the South China and Southwest regions decreased steadily due to some rush - work demand; the inventory in the Yangtze River Delta and Central China regions fluctuated little. [97] 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes. [119] 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (February 8 - 17th), most of the regions in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, southern China, and the eastern part of the southwestern region will experience precipitation, which is higher than the same period in previous years. [120]

"最开始是震惊，接着是害怕，现在更多的是愤怒。"机场空中交通管制员奥勒·约特这样描述过去一年 的心理变化。他回忆，大约一年前，特朗普的儿子到访努克，向路人分发印有"让美国再次伟大"字样的 帽子。许多人以为那只是"一场拙劣的政治表演……后来我们才意识到，他们并不是在开玩笑"。 这是2月6 日拍摄的丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛首府努克海边景色。新华社记者李颖摄 这种不安，正在慢慢改变格陵兰岛人的生活方式。有人开始在家中准备应急食品和常用药品；格陵兰岛 自治政府也罕见地提醒居民，留意可能出现的断电、断网情况；电视和社交媒体上，与美国有关的消息 反复滚动；一些商铺则在门口挂起"格陵兰岛不出售"的标语。 在努克机场工作的当地居民西克宁努瓦克告诉记者，近一个月来，她几乎每天都能看到来自不同国家的 军人抵达机场，这令她格外不安，也让当地气氛更加紧张。 本文转自【新华社】； 大部分位于北极圈内的格陵兰岛以寒冷、广袤和荒凉著称，超过八成的土地被冰层覆盖，远离世界主要 海运航线，也很少进入国际政治的核心视野。对许多格陵兰岛人来说，这里像是世界的边缘。生活节奏 缓慢，社会秩序稳定，安宁得几乎理所当然。 如今一切都变了。随着美国总统特朗普过 ...