Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are redefining the global market landscape, with direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran creating unprecedented uncertainty for investors [1] - The recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant escalation in the conflict, prompting market participants to reassess risk exposure across various asset classes [1] - Oil prices are expected to rise significantly, with Oxford Economics modeling a worst-case scenario of approximately $130 per barrel, potentially pushing U.S. inflation close to 6% by year-end [1] Group 2: Oil Market Volatility - The oil market has experienced significant volatility, with WTI crude futures rising about 10% and Brent crude futures increasing 18% since June 10, reaching a near five-month high of $79.04 [2] - Traders are exiting oil futures positions at record speed, with a drop of 367 million barrels in open contracts, representing a decline of about 7% since June 12 [2] - The volatility in the oil market is attributed to the unpredictability of U.S. actions regarding the conflict, leading to increased pressure on derivative books [2] Group 3: Transportation Costs and Risks - Transportation costs for crude oil from the Middle East to China have surged nearly 90% since the Israeli attacks, with shipping rates for gasoline and aviation fuel also rising significantly [3] - The safety of the Strait of Hormuz is under close scrutiny, as it accounts for about one-fifth of global oil production and consumption, with GPS signals of nearly 1,000 vessels being disrupted [3] - Recent incidents, including oil tankers colliding and exploding, highlight the increasing risks faced by vessels in the region [3] Group 4: Currency and Stock Market Reactions - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has a complex impact on the U.S. dollar, which may initially benefit from safe-haven demand but could weaken in the long term due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The U.S. stock market has shown a relatively mild reaction to the conflict, with the S&P 500 index initially declining but stabilizing thereafter, indicating potential for a rebound based on historical trends [4][5] - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically experiences a slight decline in the initial weeks of conflict but tends to recover in the following months [5] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in geopolitical risk premium for gold may be misleading, as historical patterns indicate that such premiums often peak 8-20 trading days after a crisis [10][12] - Despite the ongoing conflict, gold prices have recently dropped, with spot gold falling below $3,370, marking a decline of over 1.8% [7] - Deutsche Bank anticipates that gold will likely rebuild its risk premium in the coming weeks due to the severity of the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. military actions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by President Trump against Iran's nuclear facilities has raised concerns about market volatility and energy prices, with analysts predicting an initial spike in oil prices and increased uncertainty in the market [1][2]. Energy Market Impact - Mark Spindel, CIO of Potomac River Capital, anticipates initial panic in the market, leading to higher oil prices due to increased uncertainty and risk exposure [2]. - Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group expects oil prices to surge initially but stabilize within a few days, suggesting that Iran may seek a peace agreement after losing leverage [2]. - Jack Ablin, CIO of Cresset Capital, warns that this event introduces new complex risks that will clearly impact energy prices and could potentially increase inflation [2]. Stock Market Reactions - Mark Malek, CIO of Siebert Financial, holds an optimistic view on the stock market, believing the military action will be positive, especially since it appears to be a one-time event rather than a prolonged conflict [3]. - Malek emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the potential for Iran to block the critical Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly alter market dynamics [3]. Pre-Market Observations - Investors are closely monitoring early signals before the market opens, with Spindel noting that there is ample time for consideration and discussions before trading begins [4]. - Analysts believe the bold military action contrasts sharply with previous expectations of negotiations, and market participants are assessing potential damage, which may take time [4]. - The core concern for investors remains the potential retaliatory measures from Iran and whether this action is truly a one-time event or could escalate into a broader regional conflict [4].

美国总统特朗普周六宣布，美军已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的打击行动，标志着中东地缘政治紧张局势进入全 新且更加危险复杂的阶段。 戏剧性的一幕是，袭击前一天，特朗普还宣称"可能会支持停火"。当地时间6月20日，特朗普表示，很难要求以色列停止空袭，他可能 会支持停火。 分析人士警告，这一前所未有的军事行动可能引发伊朗的强烈报复，进一步推高全球能源价格并加剧中东地区不稳定。伊朗政治领导层 面临国内压力，可能被迫对美军基地或代理人目标发动反击以挽回颜面。 专家警告地缘政治风险进入新阶段 中东问题专家表示，特朗普决定直接打击伊朗核设施标志着该地区安全和政治格局进入一个不可预测的新篇章。美国对外关系委员会中 东研究高级研究员Ray Takeyh表示："这是一个新阶段，也是一个潜在的问题阶段。" 据央视新闻、环球网报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹 和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击，并表示"伊朗的福尔多(核设施)已不存在"。 特朗普宣称，将于美国东部时间21日晚上10点在白宫发表全国讲话，内容将涉及"我们在伊朗非常成功的军事行动。这是美国、以 ...

石化周报 地缘冲突持续发酵，油价或高位宽幅震荡 2025 年 06 月 21 日 ➢ 地缘冲突持续发酵，油价或高位宽幅震荡。6 月 16 日，因伊朗请求卡塔尔、 沙特和阿曼要求特朗普施压以色列促使以色列停火，叠加 G7 集团领导人呼吁以 色列和伊朗缓和局势，市场对地缘持续性的预期有所减弱，布伦特油价最低回落 至 71 美元/桶以下。然而，由于多重因素的影响，以伊冲突目前看不到短期结束 的迹象，油价本周依然呈现上涨趋势。时间线上来看，美国方面多次呼吁伊朗签 署限制其核计划的协议，在 6 月 17 日特朗普在社交平台上发文称"伊朗本应签 署我让他们签署的'协议'"后，6 月 18 日美国扩大了其在中东地区的军事部 署；而伊朗态度相对坚决，同日其表示不接受压力下达成的和平；6 月 19 日， 美国表示将在未来两周内决定美国是否介入以色列和伊朗的冲突；6 月 21 日最 新消息，伊朗表明愿意在以色列"停止侵略"后考虑通过外交途径解决伊核问题， 而特朗普表示"可能支持以伊停火，但让以色列停下来很难，也许美国没必要打 击伊朗"。从美国的表态来看，以伊冲突短期或仍将持续，此外，伊拉克表示近 几天已有 50 架以色列战机侵犯 ...

2025.06. 21 本文字数：1235，阅读时长大约2分钟 本周，标准普尔500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.2%，道琼斯指数变化不大。 市场概述 美联储理事沃勒当天表示， 由于关税不太可能显著增加通货膨胀，美联储可能"最早在7月"放松货 币政策。 中长期美债收益率回落，10年期利率下降1.4个基点至4.38%，2年期利率下跌3.8个基点至 3.92%。联邦基金利率期货定价显示，美联储可能在9月开始降息。摩根士丹利认为，增长、失业和 通胀的不确定性都居高不下，尽管增长和失业方面的不确定性略低于3月份。风险也仍然偏向于增长 的下行、失业的上行和通胀的上行。 中东局势依然紧张。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普表示，很难要求以色列停止空袭，他可能会 支持停火。而针对是否决定打击伊朗的问题，特朗普说"我给他们一段时间，我认为最多两周"。他 补充说，此举的目的是"看看人们是否会恢复理智"。特朗普称，美国一直在与伊朗对话。他说"伊朗 不想和欧洲对话，他们想和我们对话。欧洲在这件事上帮不上忙。"特朗普还表示，美国国家情报总 监加巴德关于"没有证据证明伊朗正在制造核武器"的说法是错误的。特朗普认为伊朗距离拥有核武 ...

由于市场认为美国短期内可能不会军事介入伊朗与以色列冲突，对石油供应中断担忧缓解的同时保持观 望，国际油价在隔夜市场油价强势震荡，当日早盘下跌后跌幅收窄，尾盘回落，收盘时国际油价均下 跌。 分析人士认为，在消息面缺乏明确方向前，油价预计维持区间震荡格局。 油田服务企业贝克休斯公司20日午后公布的数据显示，截至6月20日当周，美国活跃石油钻机数量为438 个，较前一周减少1个，同比降幅为47个；加拿大本周活跃石油钻机数量为93个，环比增加2个，同比减 少16个。 （文章来源：新华财经） 彭博社报道说，美国高级官员正在为对伊朗发动军事打击做准备，可能最早于21日进行。此举将标志着 局势危险升级，并可能进一步推高已因风险溢价而走高的油价。 嘉盛集团资深分析师法瓦德·拉扎克扎达（Fawad Razaqzada）表示，当前油市"最大的多空分歧"源于霍 尔木兹海峡通行风险。若冲突失控导致这一全球约五分之一海上原油运输航道受阻，布伦特价格或被推 升至三位数；反之，若局势意外缓和，油价也可能回落至每桶70美元附近。他提醒投资者在波动市况下 保持高度谨慎和灵活的风险管理。 美国能源信息署最新周报显示，上周美国商业原油库存大幅减少 ...

在银行业方面，摩根士丹利认为，2025年美联储的年度银行压力测试将比2024年更轻松。根据摩根士丹 利的分析，今年的压力测试预计会显示银行的资本充足率下降幅度较小，表明大部分美国银行的压力资 本缓冲将维持在较低水平或相对持平。该测试是美联储评估美国大型银行应对经济衰退和潜在金融危机 能力的关键工具，投资者对银行股的关注度逐渐上升。 随着市场继续消化美联储货币政策决议和以伊冲突走向相关信息，纽约股市三大股指20日高开低走，盘 中弱势盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 尽管美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特6月19日关于美国总统特朗普将在"接下来两周内"决定是否下令美 军对伊朗发动打击的表态暂时缓解了市场对美国很快直接介入以色列与伊朗冲突的担忧，但投资者依然 保持谨慎，在周末到来前倾向于回避风险。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨35.16点，收于42206.82点，涨幅为0.08%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌13.03点，收于5967.84点，跌幅为0.22%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌98.86点，收于 19447.41点，跌幅为0.51%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六跌五涨。通信服务 ...

Core Insights - Stellantis is evaluating the potential divestiture of its luxury brand Maserati amid significant pressures from rising import tariffs in the U.S. and competition from Chinese electric vehicle brands in the global luxury car market [1][2] - Maserati's global deliveries have plummeted to 14,725 units in 2024, nearly halving from 26,689 units in 2023, indicating severe market challenges [1] - The decline in Maserati's sales is attributed to underperformance of its core model Grecale, a structural shift in demand from Chinese consumers, and a slowdown in product updates [1] Company Strategy - Stellantis has engaged McKinsey & Company to develop new strategic plans for its luxury brands, including Maserati and Alfa Romeo, during a transitional period under Chairman John Elkann [1] - Official representatives from Stellantis have denied rumors regarding the sale of Maserati, but the company has not provided further details on the strategic evaluation [1] Industry Context - The automotive industry is facing challenges related to accelerated electrification, geopolitical risks, and the need to optimize brand portfolios and improve operational efficiency [2] - The future direction of Maserati may serve as a case study for how multinational automotive companies respond to global industry changes [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治风险有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，但幅度有限。在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景 | | | | 下，钢价或继续区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，但对国内钢价实际影响 | | | | 较有限，预计短期维持区间运行。【3090，3130】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双降，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善。 | | | | 近期煤矿环保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。短期区间参与，中期逢 | | | ...

金银：外因影响边际放缓，金价震荡 | 白 T. 12 6 | 日 六 | 日. 37 | 24 14 | 10 ad | 11 14 | 用 元 /レ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 位 12/16 10 | 取 刷 | 服 耐 | HIT THE | AN JEX | L PJ | 户又化 | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 785. 42 | 785. 08 | 0. 04% | 778 | 1.01% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3386 | 3407 | -0. 59% | 3376 | 0. 31% | | 白银 | SHFE白银 | 9045 | 8864 | 2. 04% | 8902 | 1.61% | | | COMEX白银 | 37 | 37 | -1.13% | 36 | 1. 10% | | | 上海金银比 | 86. 83 | 88. 57 | -1.96% | 89.03 | -2. 47% | | 比价 | COMEX全银比 | 91.62 | 91.62 | 0. 00% | 93.56 | -2.07% | ...