北京时间10月22日晚间，国际金价再度大跌，截至发稿，伦敦金现跌2.46%至4023美元/盎司。 | 伦敦金现 | 4023.260 | -101.510 | -2.46% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦银现 | 47.775 | -0.887 | -1.82% | | COMEX黄金 | 4035.1 d | -74.0 | -1.80% | | COMEX白银 | 47.420 d | -0.284 | -0.60% | 此前一个交易日，国际金价出现大跌行情，当天伦敦金现价格暴跌超过5%，单日每盎司下跌超过200美元，盘中价格一度跌破4100美元/盎司。 10月22日，国际金价盘中巨震，当天早间，伦敦金现价格一度跌破4010美元/盎司，随后又震荡拉升走高，一度转涨。午后震荡走低转跌，直至傍晚加速下 跌。 金价巨震。 光大期货贵金属资深研究员展大鹏表示，俄乌局势出现重大转折，是黄金大跌的直接原因。乌克兰与欧洲主要国家发表的联合声明支持特朗普"立即停战"立 场，并以现有接触线为谈判起点。作为自2022年以来央行购金与金价上涨的重要驱动因素之一，俄乌冲突若迎来实质性缓和，将对黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 6.3% on October 21, is seen as a temporary setback, with strong underlying supply and demand dynamics expected to support future price increases [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Lombard Odier's global forex strategist and investment strategy head indicate that despite the short-term overbought conditions in gold, the fundamental supply-demand momentum remains strong [1] - The report highlights that central banks are likely to create a higher price floor for gold, driven by concerns over U.S. financial sanctions, escalating geopolitical risks, and unpredictable tariff policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The overall economic and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to continue to favor increased demand for gold [1] - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target from $3,900 per ounce to $4,600 per ounce, reflecting a bullish outlook on gold prices [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has seen a significant increase in IPO financing, reaching HKD 182.9 billion by the end of September, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2024, making it the top global market for IPOs this year [1][3] - There is a notable rise in participation from international investors in the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from Europe, the Middle East, and emerging markets, indicating a strong global interest in Chinese technology innovation [3] - The A+H listing model has developed further, with nearly half of the new IPO financing in the first nine months coming from A+H listed companies, showcasing strong market linkage between mainland China and Hong Kong [3] - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong securities market reached HKD 256.4 billion by the end of September, a 126% year-on-year increase, indicating robust activity in the secondary market [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has risen by 40.1% year-to-date, driven by the surge in AI-related stocks, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index showing a 55.8% increase [5] Industry Trends - The global economic landscape is shifting, with diminishing returns from technological advancements and demographic dividends, leading to changes in asset allocation logic [4] - Hong Kong is positioned to attract international capital, enhancing its role in global capital allocation amidst geopolitical risks and a retreat from globalization [4] - The technology sector has surpassed the financial sector in terms of weight within the Hang Seng Index, highlighting the central role of technological innovation in economic development [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Expected to decline further, with prices entering a phase of long - short competition and increased market volatility [13][14] - US Dollar Index: Expected to strengthen [17][18] - US Stock Index Futures: Expected to improve risk appetite, but with continued high volatility, recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [20] - Treasury Bonds: In the short - term, trading should be cautious. Later, opportunities to buy on dips for medium - term long positions can be sought [22][23] - Sugar: Expected to show weak oscillations, not recommended to short aggressively [28] - Soybean Meal: Expected to remain weak in the short term [30] - Steel: Recommended to approach prices with an oscillatory mindset [32][33] - Vegetable Oils: Recommended to wait for market drivers and take a short - term wait - and - see approach or hold light long positions [34] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] - Corn: Short - term recommended to wait and see, not advisable to short [37] - Red Dates: Recommended to wait and see, focus on price competition in production areas and downstream consumption [40] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to strengthen due to supply - demand resonance [41] - Iron Ore: Overall trend is expected to be weak, but short - term decline may not be smooth [42] - Polysilicon: Maintain the view that spot prices will not decline in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for PS2511 - PS2512 [47] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term recommended for range trading, mid - term focus on short - selling opportunities after peak demand [51] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with an oscillatory mindset, and mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets can be considered [53] - Zinc: Unilateral trading recommended to wait and see, focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage approach for domestic - foreign trading [56] - Crude Oil: Expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [61] - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [63] - Methanol: Recommended to wait and see [66] - Pulp: Expected limited upside space for the futures price [68] - Caustic Soda: Not recommended to short aggressively [70][71] - Styrene: The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream products of pure benzene [74] - Container Freight Rates: Short - term recommended to approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, not advisable to buy on the rise [76] 2. Core Views - The formulation of a 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe and Ukraine has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a stronger US dollar index, but there are still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation [17] - The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the joint statement of European leaders on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, a softening of Trump's stance on tariffs, and the news of a possible visit to China, which has reduced risk - aversion demand. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline [13] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] - The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and combined with weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak [30] - Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend. Due to inventory pressure and average demand recovery, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [32] - The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [46] - The industrial silicon market has a clearer price floor due to cost factors, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - European leaders' joint statement on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and Trump's related remarks have led to a more than 5% drop in gold prices. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline due to reduced risk - aversion demand and short - term over - rise [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to strengthen. However, there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's discussion of providing loan guarantees for OpenAI has increased market concerns. With uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations and a cautious market before the earnings season, risk appetite has declined. The market is expected to improve but with high volatility [20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's imports of syrup and sugar premix have decreased, Brazil's sugar exports in October have increased, and the price of gasoline in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic sugar market is expected to show weak oscillations [24][26][28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean exports in September increased, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations and is expected to remain weak [29][30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU has made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese steel crawler tracks, and China's automobile exports in September have increased. Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend, and are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [31][32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased. The oil market is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for market drivers [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions vary. The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are mainly rising, but the upward trend has slowed. Spot prices are expected to decline, while futures prices may enter an oscillatory bottom - building phase [36][37] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market is strong. Due to supply - demand resonance, prices are expected to strengthen [41] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 decreased. Iron ore prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar power generation in September increased. The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [43][46] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some polysilicon bases are shutting down, affecting the industrial silicon market. The price floor is clearer, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [48][49] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium plans to increase lithium concentrate production. The inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and prices are expected to be supported in the short term [50] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is oscillating, and the domestic lead market has a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is recommended to observe unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [52][53] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Silvercorp's zinc production in Q2 2025 decreased. The LME zinc price is rising, and the domestic zinc market has a stable supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage [54][55] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for strategic reserves, and API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are expected to show weak oscillations [57][60][61] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon emissions market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and prices are expected to be lower than last year [62][63] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol imports in September were high. Due to a temporary shutdown of an Iranian methanol plant, futures prices have rebounded, but it is recommended to wait and see [64][66] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable, and the paper pulp futures price is relatively strong. However, due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, the upward space is limited [67][68] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is mostly stable. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. It is not recommended to short aggressively [69][71] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene plant has started production, and there are many maintenance rumors in the industry. The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [72][74] 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - HPL will increase freight rates from the Far East to multiple destinations. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is not recommended to buy on the rise [75][76]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline from historical highs, stabilizing around 4320 USD, influenced by a strong dollar and profit-taking by bullish investors [1] - Global risk appetite has improved, reducing the demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to easing international trade tensions [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about economic growth, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve may lead to potential interest rate cuts, providing some support for gold [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - Short-term support for gold is around 4300 USD, with a potential drop to the 4240-4200 USD range if this level is breached; resistance is noted at 4380 USD and a breakthrough at 4400 USD could signal a new upward trend [4] - The volatility of gold prices is expected to increase, and monitoring developments in U.S. government operations, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks is crucial for predicting short-term price movements [4] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - Oil prices have continued to decline, reaching a new low around 56 USD, indicating a bearish trend with potential for short-term rebounds [5] Group 4: Forex Market Insights - The U.S. dollar index has retreated from a high of 100.10, currently trading between 98.50 and 98.60, with a bearish outlook but potential for short-term corrections [6] - The euro has shown slight downward movement, with key resistance levels at 1.1660 and 1.1710, while support is found at 1.1585 and 1.1530-40 [6] - The British pound has faced downward pressure, with critical support levels that, if breached, could open further downside potential [7] - The USD/JPY pair shows a short-term bullish trend, influenced by expectations of fiscal stimulus in Japan and U.S. economic fundamentals [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly retreated from historical highs due to a rebound in the US dollar and improved global risk sentiment, but the downside potential for gold remains limited due to concerns over a potential US government shutdown and strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a strong reversal with gold prices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs, indicating robust buying sentiment [3] - Despite the strong upward movement, there are signs of stagnation at high levels, suggesting a potential short-term decline in momentum and a shift towards a consolidation phase [3][4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 4300-4320, with significant support at 4245-4230, which could guide trading strategies [3] Technical Analysis - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to the market's reaction to various fundamental factors, with a focus on the importance of recognizing trends and managing risk in a highly fluctuating environment [4][6] - The presence of speculative trading and the behavior of institutional investors are critical in understanding current market dynamics, especially during periods of high volatility [7][8] Trading Strategy - Recommendations suggest focusing on buying on dips while being cautious of the risks associated with chasing prices at high levels [3][10] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with attention needed on key price levels to determine potential breakout or breakdown scenarios [10]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The international oil price declined overnight, with the Brent December contract down 0.65%. Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase since the fourth quarter. The medium - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weak oscillation [2]. Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. With multiple issues in negotiation, the medium - long - term upward logic of gold and silver is solid, but short - term two - way fluctuation risks have increased. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see [3]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated higher overnight. Although the enthusiasm for allocating to the copper market is high, the domestic copper market shows "weak supply and demand" at high prices, and the social inventory continues to rise. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. Since August, the apparent consumption of the aluminum market has been basically flat year - on - year. The inventory performance since the National Day is neutral, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to oscillate and test the previous high resistance [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,600 yuan. With tight scrap aluminum supply and increased enterprise costs, but high industry inventory, it continues to follow the aluminum price [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. Supply is in obvious surplus, and the spot index continues to decline. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [7]. Zinc - The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 165,300 tons on Monday. The Shanghai zinc is under pressure and fell with heavy volume, but it has strong support at around 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc is under obvious pressure at the 3,000 - dollar integer mark. The domestic and foreign price difference may converge periodically, and the zinc ingot export is the general direction [8]. Lead - Shanghai lead is in a stalemate between long and short positions. The inventory is low, and the overall inventory accumulation is less than expected. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, but the inflow of overseas low - price crude lead is expected to strengthen. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuates narrowly. The downstream demand recovery in the peak consumption season is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening. Technically, Shanghai nickel is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated higher overnight, mainly following the trading rhythm of the copper market. The supply of the global tin market is gradually stabilizing, and the trading center is expected to oscillate downward. The previous short - selling strategy is continued [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high and then oscillated, and the market trading warmed up. The total market inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 132,700 tons. Technically, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillates and waits for a clear direction [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fell back with a significant reduction in positions, mainly due to the significant cooling of policy expectations. The spot price is stable, and the inventory accumulation risk continues under high inventory. The market maintains an oscillating trend [13]. Industrial Silicon - The Xinjiang operating rate of industrial silicon has reached the highest point of the year, and the downstream demand is basically stable. The weekly social inventory has increased marginally, and the spot price is slightly under pressure. After the electricity price rises in November, the production reduction in the southwest is highly certain [14]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Steel prices oscillated at night. The apparent demand for ribbed bars rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The iron and steel industry's negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated weakly overnight, and the basis has strengthened recently. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to oscillate at high levels [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price increase for coking has started. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price may be more likely to rise than to fall [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated strongly during the day. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly month - on - month. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose and then fell during the day. The demand side maintains a high level of hot metal production. The output of silicomanganese remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly [18]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day. The demand is generally good, and the supply remains at a high level, with the on - balance - sheet inventory continuously decreasing [19]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market's expectation of shipping companies' price increase is strengthening, and the trading core is shifting from weak reality to strong expectation. The 12 and 02 contracts are expected to run bullishly, but the upside space is limited [20]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side in a weak oscillating trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil has some support in the near - term, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short - term, and the demand may improve marginally in the medium - term [21]. Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate declined month - on - month. The demand in October is expected to be weaker than expected. The asphalt market remains in a tight - balance pattern in the short - term, and the price has support at the bottom [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG main contract continued to oscillate narrowly, and the far - month contracts are relatively under pressure. The supply increased slightly this week, and the inventory at refineries and ports decreased [23]. Urea - The urea main contract continued to oscillate narrowly. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, but the price has limited room to continue to decline [24]. Methanol - The import supply of methanol in coastal areas may slow down. The domestic methanol operating load remains high, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The methanol port market may oscillate within a range in the short - term [24]. Pure Benzene - The pure benzene price continued to fall overnight. The weekly production decreased, and the port inventory increased. The medium - term absolute price depends on the oil price and the performance of the external market [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support for styrene continues to decline. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short - term, but the price continues to decline [26]. Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene - Propylene prices have fallen to a new low for the year, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The polyethylene market has limited actual transactions. The polypropylene supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices fluctuated narrowly during the day. The supply is under high pressure, and the demand is stable. The PVC may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices oscillated narrowly, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling [28]. PX and PTA - PX supply is expected to contract temporarily, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is expected to weaken. The prices of PX and PTA continue to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory [29]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The ethylene glycol price has broken through the support level and fallen. The short - term market lacks positive factors [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade PET - Short - fiber has new production capacity, and the inventory has decreased weekly. It is recommended to be long - biased. The bottle - grade PET processing margin has improved, but the demand is expected to weaken [31]. Glass - Glass prices continued to decline. The glass factory inventory continues to increase, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The decline amplitude is expected to be limited [32]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly rose. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period. The post - holiday demand has recovered, but the supply pressure is large [33]. Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices continued to decline. The supply is still under high pressure, and the downstream demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short after a rebound [34]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, but US soybean crushing has increased. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. In a high - supply and high - inventory pattern, the soybean meal is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market sentiment has turned optimistic. The US soybean export demand is uncertain. The palm oil market has resilience. It is expected that oils are stronger than meals, and it is recommended to go long on oils at low prices [36]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed has extremely low inventory and low operating rates. The supply side of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has a strong willingness to support prices. It is recommended to take a short - long strategy and pay attention to the marginal changes in the economic and trade relationship [37]. Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans showed a strong upward trend and continued to oscillate and rebound. The short - term US soybean market sentiment is optimistic, but the export demand is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition performance and policy guidance [38]. Corn - The autumn harvest progress of corn in the Huanghuai region is slow. The supply of corn is expected to remain loose, and the Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [39]. Hogs - The hog spot price rebounded after reaching a phased bottom. The supply pressure will still be large in the later stage. It is expected that the hog price may have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [40]. Eggs - After the post - National Day replenishment, the supply pressure has returned to the dominant position. The egg futures market shows a bearish trend [41]. Cotton - The US cotton demand may be weak. The Brazilian cotton production is expected to be high. The domestic Xinjiang cotton acquisition is in progress, and the demand is average. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton may oscillate [42]. Sugar - The international sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar faces upward pressure. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [43]. Apples - Apple futures prices rose with increased positions. The market is mainly concerned about the cold - storage inventory. The apple production may be lower than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Wood - Wood futures prices oscillated. The domestic supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season supports the price. It is recommended to take a long - biased strategy [45]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is average. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp gives some support to softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market oscillated with reduced volume, and the ChiNext Index led the rise. The futures index contracts all closed up. The market style may rotate in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on the science and technology growth sector in the medium - term [47]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated. The Sino - US negotiation has not reached an agreement in the short - term. The bond market will gradually enter a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [48].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：俄罗斯石油供应方面仍存在不确定性，美国总统特朗普周日再次警告称，除非印度停止购 买俄罗斯石油，否则华盛顿将对印度维持"大规模"关税；俄罗斯外交部声明称，"双方就落实2025 年10月16日俄总统普京与美总统特朗普通话中达成的谅解的具体实施步骤进行了建设性讨论。"；中 性 2.基差：10月17日，阿曼原油现货价为62.19美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为62.11美元/桶，基差 34.77元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月10日当周API原油库存增加736万桶，预期增加23.3万桶；美国至10月10日当周 EIA库存增加352.4万桶，预期增加28.8万桶；库欣地区库存至10月10日当周减少70.3万桶，前值减少 76.3万桶；截止至10月17日，上海原油期货库存为521.1万桶，不变；偏空 4.盘面：20日均线偏下，价格在均线下方；偏空 2025-10-21原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

Group 1 - Silver prices reached a historic high of $54.49 per ounce, the highest level since 1980, but subsequently retreated [1][2] - The recent surge in silver prices was driven by significant investment flows, increasing physical shortages, and escalating geopolitical risks [2] - London silver inventories have decreased significantly, with available "free flow" dropping from 850 million ounces in 2019 to 200 million ounces last week, indicating a structural deficit in global supply [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts in October and December are expected to provide long-term support for the silver market [1] - The recent price action in gold, which has seen a significant reversal after reaching historical highs, may negatively impact silver prices unless new catalysts emerge [3][5] - Silver remains in a bullish trend, but the risk of correction is increasing, with key support identified at $49.81 [8]