Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions continue to boost market sentiment, but the differentiation of fundamentals leads to different price performances of sector varieties. The supply - demand of coal and coke remains balanced with high - level price oscillation, while high inventories of steel and continuous inventory accumulation of iron ore lead to price declines [1][2]. - The marginal weakening of the supply - demand pattern is the main feature of the later fundamental situation, which still poses upward resistance to the prices of some sector varieties. At the same time, there is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy levels. It is recommended to seize the upward opportunities under favorable macro and policy conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The weekly molten iron output has decreased as expected. The weakening of steel mill profitability and the start of the off - season will limit the recovery space of molten iron after the end of environmental protection restrictions. Iron ore arrivals are expected to recover, and inventory is expected to increase marginally. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not prominent. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the finished product data has slightly improved, and the downward driving force of scrap steel is limited. It is expected that the short - term scrap steel price will mainly follow the finished products [2][10]. Carbon Element - Coke: Under environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is temporarily tightened, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not large. With the continuous increase in raw coal prices, coke has started three rounds of price increases. However, although the finished product prices have slightly recovered recently, steel mill profits are still under pressure, and the game between steel and coke continues. It is expected that the coke price will oscillate [2][12]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, the coal mine inventory has dropped to a recent low. The short - term fundamentals are healthy. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will oscillate, waiting for further macro and policy boosts [2][13]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost is stable, and the high output of steel supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the driving force for the price increase of manganese silicon is insufficient [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the ferrosilicon price in the short term. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward price space is limited [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Some manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase is implemented and the sales situation after implementation. If the sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][14]. - Soda ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center of gravity will still move down to promote capacity reduction [3][16]. Specific Varieties - Steel: The macro sentiment is volatile, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The spot market trading is generally weak, and the market sentiment has deteriorated. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro policy disturbances [8]. - Iron ore: The molten iron output has decreased significantly, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The spot price has weakened. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not large. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - Scrap steel: The arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the price is oscillating. The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand is temporarily tightened. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to increase, and coal mines continue to reduce inventory. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [13]. - Glass: Manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase and the sales situation. If the sales are weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. - Soda ash: After the supply recovery, manufacturers have returned to the inventory accumulation state. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center of gravity will move down [16]. - Manganese silicon: The driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand relationship is still loose, and there is pressure above the futures price. The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the price in the short term, but the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose [18]. Related Indexes - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.57% to 2250.38, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52% to 2544.78, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87% to 2246.75 [99]. - The steel industry chain index on October 30, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.68%, a 5 - day increase of 2.52%, a 1 - month decline of 0.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.96% [101].

Overview - The recent trend in gold and silver prices shows a slowdown in the downward movement, with prices stabilizing near early October levels, indicating a shift towards a more rational market sentiment [1] Core Influencing Factors - Progress in US-China trade talks has reduced safe-haven demand, as both sides reached a basic consensus on key economic issues, leading to decreased concerns over geopolitical risks and increased selling pressure on gold and silver [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% reflects a risk management approach, with internal divisions on future rate cuts, contributing to a stronger US dollar and lower gold and silver prices [3][4] Market Dynamics and Outlook - Gold and silver price fluctuations are primarily driven by policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment, with recent easing of previously supportive factors leading to price adjustments [5] - The ongoing uncertainty in global economic and geopolitical landscapes may continue to impact gold and silver prices in the short term, while the Fed's rate cut cycle and existing supply-demand gaps provide long-term support [5] - Central bank gold purchasing trends are crucial; a reported increase of 28% in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 2025 could bolster market sentiment and limit price adjustments [6]

Report 1: Steel Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market has neutral supply - demand with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black market depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. For long positions, attention should be paid to the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and appropriate reduction of positions can be considered. Also, pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 01 contract rose from 3091 to 3133 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, while plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different changes, with some decreasing [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also increased, with rebar production rising by 5.9 to 207.1 (a 2.9% increase) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 (a 3.0% decrease), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 (a 1.0% decrease) [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [2]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures reached the peak and then declined. Although the macro situation is slightly positive after the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the decline in pig iron output still suppresses iron ore. After several days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore weakens. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8%. Some basis values and spreads also changed [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased, like Carajás fines decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Jinshi 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipping volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a rise of 10.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Report 3: Coke Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. For speculation, it is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low levels, with the reference range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low levels, with the reference range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but pay attention to risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coke prices showed different changes. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The basis values also changed [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal varieties increased, such as Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 36 to 1380, a rise of 2.7%. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The output of some coking coal mines increased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The demand for coke is affected by the decline in pig iron output [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. Steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants and ports increased inventory. Coking coal inventory: Some inventories increased, while some decreased, with the overall inventory slightly decreasing [7].

2025 年 10 月 31 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：49 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 49 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：户外运动、光刻胶、储能 1、户外运动主题：国家发展改革委等六部门发布通知，拟将 "北京市平谷区金海湖户外运动目的地"等 49 个地区纳入首 批高质量户外运动目的地建设名单，予以重点支持。此次建 设并非试点示范或挂牌命名，而是聚焦资源禀赋好、基础扎 实的区域，精准配套政策、资金、项目，打造标杆、以点带 面，带动全国户外运动产业提质升级，进一步满足人民群众 多层次、多样化的户外运动和美好生活需要。相关标的：三 夫户外(002780)、影石创新(688775) 2、光刻胶主题：据科技日报，近日，北京大学化学与分子工 程学院彭海琳教授团队及合 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level overall with temporarily low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of demand changes on market sentiment, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated violently. In the spot market, it was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds, and some regional coke enterprises planned a third round of hikes [3] Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen regions shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai region shut down for goaf treatment, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 billion tons, a decline of 3.8%. In August and September, the monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal was around 6 billion tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. In October, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 12.8 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports in October will decline, and the annual import volume may be the same as last year [3] Demand Side - Demand is in the transition stage from peak season to off - season. Steel mills' profits have further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output has slightly decreased to 23.99 million tons. As the peak demand season nears its end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of maintaining rational optimism in investment, especially during market fluctuations [1][2][3] - Historical trends in the A-share market indicate that rational investors often find valuable opportunities during extreme market conditions, leading to significant returns [3] - The investment philosophy suggests that understanding economic principles, industry trends, and company valuations is crucial for long-term success [3] Group 2 - The article highlights that successful investors are distinguished by their ability to see opportunities in crises and maintain composure during market exuberance [3] - It notes that the sentiment in the market oscillates between excessive optimism and pessimism, but ultimately, stock prices are driven by the intrinsic value of companies [2][3] - The narrative reinforces that a cautious yet optimistic approach, grounded in solid fundamental analysis, is essential for achieving long-term investment success [2][3]

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has slightly increased to 2.2 as of October 24, compared to 1.9 the previous week, indicating a partial recovery in market sentiment [6][8] - The overall market sentiment is showing increased differentiation, with a decline in price-volume consistency, suggesting reduced capital activity [8][12] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has significantly decreased compared to the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 1,991.617 billion RMB on October 24 [14][16] Group 2: Sector Performance Insights - As of October 24, the banking, oil and petrochemical, transportation, public utilities, and construction decoration sectors have shown an upward trend in short-term scores [33] - The coal sector currently has the highest short-term score of 93.22, indicating strong short-term performance [33][34] - The model indicates that the market is currently favoring large-cap and value styles, with strong signals for both [33][44] Group 3: Industry Crowding Insights - Recent high price increases in the electronics and power equipment sectors are accompanied by high capital crowding, suggesting potential volatility risks due to valuation and sentiment corrections [36][41] - The average crowding levels are highest in the power equipment, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and coal sectors [37][40] - Low crowding sectors such as non-bank financials, beauty care, media, computing, and food and beverage have shown lower price increases, indicating potential for excess returns if fundamentals improve [36][40]

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has slightly increased to 2.2 as of October 24, compared to 1.9 the previous week, indicating a partial recovery in market sentiment [9][12]. - The overall market sentiment is showing increased differentiation, with a decline in price-volume consistency, suggesting reduced capital activity and a cautious risk appetite among investors [12][19]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has significantly decreased compared to the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 1,991.617 billion RMB on October 24 [19][22]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - As of October 24, 2025, industries such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, transportation, public utilities, and construction decoration have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, with coal being the strongest at a score of 93.22 [40][41]. - The model indicates that the banking sector's short-term score has rapidly increased, maintaining a favorable signal for both value and large-cap styles [40][41]. - The analysis of industry crowding shows that sectors like electronics and power equipment have high returns but also high capital crowding, which may pose volatility risks [43][44]. Group 3: Technical Indicators and Market Dynamics - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a decline, indicating weak upward momentum and reduced buying interest in the market [32][35]. - The main capital inflow has improved, suggesting an increase in institutional buying power and a gradual warming of market sentiment [35][37]. - The model maintains a signal indicating that large-cap and value styles are currently dominant, although the strength of this signal may weaken in the future [52][53].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].