Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.98%. Although the steel market sentiment improved due to production - restriction disturbances, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force is questionable, but the low - inventory situation means the current contradictions are not significant. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - policies [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price strengthened again, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both weakened, the fundamentals deteriorated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. However, the overall contradictions are not large, and the cost has increased significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated upward, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CMI Index**: In July 2025, the CMI index was 100.73, a year - on - year increase of 5.54% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The domestic construction machinery market continued to improve year - on - year, but the sales in the terminal market in July were slightly weaker than in June. The construction situation improved, and the regional markets were further differentiated [6]. - **Three Major White Goods Production Scheduling**: In August 2025, the total production scheduling of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Among them, the production scheduling of household air conditioners decreased by 2.8%, refrigerators by 9.5%, and washing machines by 3.0% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - **Brazilian Investment in Iron Ore Project**: Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest more than $700 million in its iron ore subsidiary LHG Mining to expand production capacity, improve the logistics system, and promote a greener supply layout of steel raw materials. The annual production capacity of the Urucum mine is planned to increase from 12 million tons to 25 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet are provided, along with price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,437 yuan, with a change of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) is 3,504 yuan, with a change of 24 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indices such as the SGX swap and the Platts index are presented, along with their price changes. For instance, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 780 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,347 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.98%. The trading volume is 2,711,612 lots, a decrease of 703,101 lots, and the open interest is 2,175,237 lots, an increase of 239,356 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract is 3,503 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The trading volume is 1,006,596 lots, a decrease of 249,080 lots, and the open interest is 1,612,699 lots, an increase of 131,532 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 798.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The trading volume is 330,523 lots, a decrease of 200,933 lots, and the open interest is 482,200 lots, a decrease of 7,237 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, providing historical data from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate, including inventory changes and seasonal data [21][25][26][28]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][31][32][34]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply of rebar has increased slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [37]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have both weakened. The fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has good resilience, but the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and it is expected to continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [39].

Core Viewpoint - The market's optimistic sentiment has rapidly cooled, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal market will maintain high volatility [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The main coking coal contract surged to 1288.5 points last Friday night but then experienced a sharp decline, with all contracts hitting the limit down during the afternoon session [1] - Following the trading limit adjustment by the Dalian Commodity Exchange for the JM2509 coking coal contract, the previously overheated bullish sentiment in the market has significantly diminished [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Despite the sharp price drop, the fundamentals indicate that the dual coking coal inventory is still decreasing, suggesting that a significant price decline is unlikely under current conditions [1] - The influence of news and policy changes on market sentiment is currently stronger than the actual fundamental situation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term, with existing supply and demand fundamentals providing some support [1] - Market participants are advised to manage risks carefully, as macro policy stimuli may lead to significant fluctuations in sentiment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators have risen to 1.8, up from 0.65 last week, indicating a bullish outlook [10][18] - Inter-industry trading volatility has increased, signaling a recovery in capital activity and reduced uncertainty in short-term sentiment [14][23] - The total trading volume of the A-share market has continued to rise, with a peak daily trading volume of 1,928.645 billion RMB on Wednesday [18][27] Group 2 - The coal industry shows a significant upward trend, with a short-term trend score increase of 109.09% [32][34] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap growth styles, with strong signals for growth styles as evidenced by the RSI metrics [36][37] - The top five industries with the strongest short-term trends include environmental protection, basic chemicals, social services, non-ferrous metals, and comprehensive sectors [32][34]

市场情绪回暖，但金价未能获上行动能，当前风险如何控制？金银进场时机怎么选择？点击查看详细分 析！ 白银关注短线关口，黄金将继续被压制？ 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the impact of short - term market sentiment changes on the cotton market. It also presents detailed data on cotton fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the trend strength of cotton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,170 yuan/ton with a 0.07% daily increase and 14,150 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.14% - -0.17% decrease; CY2509 closed at 20,370 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase and 20,335 yuan/ton at night; ICE US Cotton 12 closed at 68.23 cents/pound with a - 0.74% decrease. The trading volume and open interest of CF2509 increased, while CY2509's trading volume decreased and open interest increased [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 72 to 9,265, and the effective forecast increased by 15 to 350. Cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 96, and the effective forecast increased by 96 to 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The prices of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased slightly, while the prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index decreased by 0.09%. The international cotton index M increased by 0.59%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S remained unchanged, and its arrival price increased by 0.16% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall rigid - demand trading of cotton spot was still acceptable, with better sales of old cotton. Some high - price basis quotes were slightly adjusted down, and the overall basis remained stable. There were specific basis quotes for different types of cotton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with spinning mills having firm quotes and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was generally light, with stable prices. Factories had high inventories, and the de - stocking effect was average [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and the market lacked fundamental guidance, resulting in light trading [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week as exchanges cool down commodities and the Politburo meeting's incremental policies are likely limited. The central bank will maintain market liquidity, and funds are expected to return to a loose state after the month - end. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [2][14] - It is difficult for market risk appetite to continue rising next week. The commodity market rally is driven by sentiment, and there is a risk that market expectations for incremental policies may be disappointed. Market risk appetite is expected to decline gradually [14] - There is no basis for the continuous tightening of the funds market. After the month - end, the funds market is expected to loosen, and the sentiment in the treasury bond market may improve [15][16] - Market fluctuations will continue in Q3, and a trend - based market may not appear until Q4. The bond market is not at risk of a long - term bear market, and it will turn bullish after the central bank's interest - rate cut expectations rise [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 21 - 27, treasury bond futures declined significantly. Influenced by various factors such as investment news, commodity price changes, and central bank policies, the prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts decreased by 0.108, 0.420, 0.615, and 2.410 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Market sentiment is expected to improve, but fluctuations will persist. Risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and trend - based market may appear in Q4. Strategies include cautiously gambling on oversold rebound opportunities, considering short - hedging strategies, and constructing curve - steepening strategies [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 84 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.805 billion yuan and a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 25, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 4.92, 9.14, 7.07, and 9.15 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [26][27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined significantly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts changed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year contracts showing an increase in open interest [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive - arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The IRR of CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the positive - arbitrage strategy opportunities were relatively few [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 25, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts were - 0.082, - 0.060, - 0.015, and + 0.220 yuan respectively. The long - term far - season contracts declined slightly more [45][46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funds Market - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan this week, but the overall net investment was 109.5 billion yuan. The funds rate increased slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [49][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined slightly. As of July 25, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80% to 97.6701, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a 4 - basis - point decline from last weekend [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of July 25, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy - chemical index increased, while the prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits changed differently [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, it is recommended to cautiously gamble on oversold rebound opportunities. Long - term, there is no bearish view, but it may be too early for allocation funds to go long. Consider short - hedging strategies and construct curve - steepening strategies [2][65]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that the market is currently influenced by sentiment, with most products showing a short - term bullish trend but facing different fundamental challenges. The overall sentiment is expected to cool down, and each product's trading strategy is based on its specific fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: Currently in the consumption peak season, low inventory and strong demand provide short - term support. However, US crude oil processing volume and refinery utilization have peaked and declined, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase will gradually materialize in the medium term [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It closed above the 510 level today, and the short - term is expected to oscillate. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions and then wait and see [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply and operation are at a high level compared to the same period, and there is new production capacity to be put into operation. Demand has not improved, and the inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support level has moved up to 7485. Wait for the short - term support to be broken [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan's production area have made the spot price strong in the short term, and the warm macro - sentiment of commodities has supported the rubber price. However, the pattern of increased supply and weak demand in the medium term remains unchanged. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It continued to rise today, testing the 15300 pressure level. The short - term support is at 15320. Wait for the support to be broken for short - selling opportunities [12]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals are still poor. The tire inventory is high, the semi - steel tire operating rate is low on the demand side, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber is difficult to reduce due to high production on the supply side. There is also downward pressure on the cost side due to the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 12150. Wait for the support to be broken for short - selling opportunities [17]. PX - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil is still weak. The summer demand is weak, the polyester production has decreased, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the supply has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 6940. Wait and see [20]. PTA - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil is still weak. The summer demand is weak, the polyester production has decreased, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure was declining but turned around today after rising above the 4850 pressure level. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions [22]. PP - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil is still weak. There are plans to put new plants into operation from July to August, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The downstream operating rate is low, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It decreased in volume and increased in price today, remaining strong. The short - term support is at 7130. Wait and see [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has declined but is still at a high level compared to the same period. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled down today, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal, which is noteworthy [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is declining/oscillating, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 2455. Wait and see [28]. PVC - **Logic**: The short - term strong sentiment of coal has pushed up the production cost of chlor - alkali, providing short - term support for the PVC price. The demand in the fundamentals is still weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate under high - level supply operation. The fundamentals are still weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support has moved up to 5255. Wait and see for now [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The port inventory is at a historical low, and it is strong in the short term under the recent market sentiment. Pay attention to the time when the inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 4440. Wait and see [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: The operating rates of both the production facilities and downstream industries are at a low level compared to the same period. However, the previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The medium - term supply - demand expectation is weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It decreased in volume and increased in price today, and the short - term support is at 7425. Wait and see [35].

Core Viewpoint - Stock index futures positions serve as a "certificate of strategy" for investors, transforming abstract strategies into concrete market participation [1][4] Group 1: Understanding Positions - For beginners, understanding positions is a crucial step in entering the market, involving cautious exploration during position building, dynamic observation during holding, and decisive execution during closing [1][3] - Experienced traders utilize positions to express nuanced market judgments, with different contracts reflecting short-term trends versus long-term views [1][3] - Adjusting positions reflects sensitivity to market changes, allowing for appropriate scaling of positions based on market alignment [1][3] Group 2: Risk Management and Strategy - A reasonable position size is central to risk management, balancing between excessive risk from over-leveraging and missed opportunities from under-leveraging [3] - The choice of holding period showcases the time dimension of strategies, with short-term focusing on intraday fluctuations and long-term on macro cycles [3] - Tracking historical performance of positions helps accumulate personalized operational experience, revealing individual strengths in trading styles [3] Group 3: Psychological Aspects - The process of holding positions also serves as a psychological training ground, fostering a stable trading mindset and rational judgment amidst market fluctuations [3][4] - Each position taken becomes a mark of growth, enhancing understanding of strategies and improving operational precision and stability [4]