1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]

Core Viewpoint - The micro-cap stock index has recently reached a new high, but has shown significant pullback after a two-day market adjustment, indicating increased volatility in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Several public funds believe that the rapid recovery of micro-cap stocks over the past two months is driven by multiple factors, with liquidity being a primary driver [2][4]. - The micro-cap stock index has shown strong performance, with the CSI 2000 and Guozheng 2000 indices rising by 16.11% and 13.27% respectively since April 8, significantly outperforming larger indices [4]. - The central bank's emphasis on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy suggests that liquidity support for micro-cap stocks may continue, enhancing their market elasticity [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Limitations - Despite some public funds achieving good performance with micro-cap stocks, the limited capacity for these stocks to absorb large amounts of capital has led to restrictions on fund subscriptions [6][8]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, public funds held approximately 4.55 billion yuan in micro-cap stocks, representing only 0.08% of their total market value, indicating low holding concentration [7]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Future Trends - There are differing opinions among institutions regarding the future of micro-cap stocks, with some reports indicating that the factors supporting their collective rise are beginning to show signs of strain [3][9]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "snowball" effect if the current trend of collective investment in micro-cap stocks exceeds their capacity, which could lead to significant market fluctuations [10]. Group 4: Optimistic Perspectives - Some analysts remain optimistic, suggesting that micro-cap stocks are primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamental factors, and that they may continue to outperform in the absence of a clear market trend [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market yield is expected to challenge the previous low, but it is difficult to break through. It is recommended to stop profit when approaching the key point. Specifically, it is suggested to allocate 10-year treasury bonds around 1.65% when there is an adjustment, and stop profit appropriately when approaching the key point of 1.6%. From a static perspective, attention can be paid to the allocation value of the 20-year treasury bond yield [2][6][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Yield Expected to Challenge the Previous Low - After a long period of credit expansion, the growth rate of social financing may be gradually peaking. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will reach the annual high of about 9.0% from July to August, and then gradually decline to about 8.3% by the end of the year. The issuance of special refinancing bonds has a significant substitution effect on new RMB loans, and there is still about 40 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be issued this year, and its substitution effect on credit is expected to continue for some time [6][12]. - In June this year, the central bank's support brought abundant liquidity and a decline in the short end of the bond market, which made the long-term bonds not adjust deeply, and the bond market often rushes ahead in June. Under the loose capital situation, institutions generally continue the "rushing ahead" strategy of previous years, and the inter-bank leverage ratio has been rising, reaching 108.2% as of June 17. Historical experience shows that the bond market rush - ahead market is often triggered after the cross - quarter capital pressure is released [6][18]. The Previous Low Can Be Challenged but Difficult to Break Through, and It is Recommended to Stop Profit When Approaching the Key Point - The bond market is insensitive to small changes in the fundamentals. Firstly, in the context of high - quality development, the improvement of total factor productivity has increased its contribution to economic growth, reducing the demand for financing in economic growth. Since 2020, the multiple of nominal economy supported by unit social financing has increased from about 3 times to about 4.2 times in 2024. Secondly, considering the bond market valuation, at the current relatively low absolute level, a greater valuation increase is required for the interest rate to decline, making the bond market less sensitive to general weakening of the fundamentals [6][19]. - The restart of treasury bond trading is possible, but the time is not clear, and the probability of restarting when the bond market approaches the previous low may not be high. If the central bank restarts treasury bond trading, referring to the market from December 20 to December 25 last year, the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds can break through 1% at the lowest, which may directly drive the yield of long - term bonds to break below 1.6%, deviating from the current relatively desirable bond market yield level [6][24].

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为6578亿、1078亿和1755亿，净融资额为2621 亿、-430亿和736亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2368亿，净融资额1667亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模3076亿，净融资额1068亿。可转债新券发行3只，预计融资规模21亿元。 债市策略展望 二级市场回顾 海外市场 美国CPI/PPI表现均不及预期，显示关税对通胀冲击尚未完全显现，市场对美联储降息预期上升。10年 期美债收盘在4.41%，较前周下行10BP。 权益市场 上周A股宽基指数大多小幅下跌。具体而言，万得全A下跌0.27%，万得微盘股指数下跌0.07%，沪深 300收跌0.25%，科创50下跌1.89%。A股成交放量，日均成交额1.37万亿，周度日均成交量增加1628.23 亿。截至2025年6月12日，全A融资余额18089.79 亿，较6月5日增加94.60亿。 上周债市震荡中小幅走强。主要影响因素包括：资金面、央行买断式逆回购公告、中美伦敦磋商、以伊 冲突等。 流动性跟踪 上周，OMO净回笼，临近税期，资金前松后紧，周五央行提前公告新一轮6月期买断 ...

Group 1 - The book "The Power of Money" by Paul Sheard discusses various aspects of money, including its creation, government debt concerns, destructive effects of money, and the potential of cryptocurrencies to disrupt existing monetary systems [2][4][24] - Sheard emphasizes the common misunderstandings and controversies surrounding money, suggesting that many people's perceptions are flawed and need clarification [2][5] - The relationship between the real economy and the monetary economy is complex, with money being essential for economic health, contrary to the traditional view that money is neutral [4][10] Group 2 - Money is fundamentally a social construct, gaining value through collective acceptance, and modern money is fiat currency, backed by government trust rather than physical commodities [5][7] - Central banks play a crucial role in money issuance, typically using commercial banks as intermediaries to inject money into the economy [7][8] - Government debt, primarily in the form of national bonds, is often misunderstood; unlike personal or corporate debt, government debt can be sustained due to the government's long-term existence and creditworthiness [10][12] Group 3 - The destructive potential of money is highlighted, particularly in the context of financial crises, where liquidity can vanish suddenly, leading to severe economic impacts [15][16] - The concept of liquidity is multifaceted, affecting how assets are traded and the stability of financial markets, especially during crises [16][17] - The U.S. dollar remains the dominant international currency, but its status is being challenged by geopolitical factors and the U.S. government's actions, leading to discussions about alternative currencies [22][23] Group 4 - Cryptocurrencies, while not yet a serious challenge to sovereign currencies, are gaining attention for their potential to disrupt traditional monetary systems and prompt central banks to innovate [24][26] - The emergence of cryptocurrencies has led to a reevaluation of payment systems and monetary policy, as they present both opportunities and risks for central banks [26][27] - The book provides a broad analysis of money, acknowledging that the discussion around it is vast and complex, with many dimensions yet to be explored [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank slightly net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase but announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, showing its care for liquidity. The money market was loose with DR001 breaking below 1.40% during the week. From June 9 - 15, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields declined, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. Although there will be multiple tests on the money market in mid - to - late June, such as large NCD maturities, tax payment disturbances, MLF maturities, and cross - quarter funds, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose due to the central bank's care [2][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Liquidity Injection**: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan and withdrew 930.9 billion yuan through reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. 858.2 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature from June 16 - 20. The central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, resulting in a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June. On June 17, 182 billion yuan of MLF will mature. June 16 is the tax declaration deadline, followed by 2 days of tax payment disturbances [6]. - **Money Market Conditions**: From June 9 - 13, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.43% respectively, down 3.4 and 2.7 basis points compared to June 2 - 6. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.56% respectively, down 3.0 and 0.9 basis points. From June 9 - 12, DR001 broke below the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.40% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From June 9 - 15, the government bond net payment scale was about 6.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 69 billion yuan compared to June 2 - 8. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds was about 41.5 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about - 35.1 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 433.4 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at about 265.9 billion yuan and local government bonds at about 167.5 billion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The money market in June is expected to remain stable. Despite multiple challenges in mid - to - late June, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose because of the central bank's care for liquidity [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 13, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6327% and 1.6355% respectively, basically unchanged and down 2 basis points compared to June 6. The 1 - year NCD yield was 1.6700%, down 1 basis point compared to June 6 [9]. - **Maturity Scale**: From June 9 - 15, the net financing of NCDs was about - 162.3 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 1.0216 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale maturity trend [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From June 9 - 13, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.03%, compared with 107.66% from June 3 - 6. On June 13 and June 6, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.68% respectively [10].

Core Insights - MIND Technology, Inc. experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 10.6% following the release of its fiscal first quarter earnings, underperforming the S&P 500 index which fell only 0.5% during the same period [1] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, MIND reported a net loss of $0.12 per share, a decline from breakeven earnings per share in the same quarter last year, attributed to lower sales volume and increased operating expenses [2] - Revenues for the quarter were $7.9 million, representing an 18.4% decrease from $9.7 million in the prior year, resulting in a net loss of $1 million compared to a net income of $1 million in the year-ago quarter [2] - Adjusted EBITDA turned negative at $0.2 million, down from a positive $1.5 million a year earlier, indicating a significant drop in operational profitability [3] Gross Profit and Margins - Gross profit for the quarter was $3.3 million, down 21% from $4.2 million in the same quarter last year, driven by lower sales volume and reduced absorption of fixed manufacturing costs [4] - Gross margin decreased from approximately 43.6% in the prior-year quarter to around 42.2%, showing some resilience despite the revenue decline [4] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased by 14.4% year over year to $4 million, primarily due to a rise in general and administrative costs, including non-recurring items related to the reorganization of U.K. operations and third-party consulting for tax strategy [5] Cash Flow and Liquidity - MIND generated $4.1 million in cash flow from operations, a significant improvement from a $4.8 million outflow in the same quarter last year, ending the quarter with a cash balance of $9.2 million and working capital of $22.8 million, indicating improved liquidity [6] Management Commentary - CEO Rob Capps described the quarter as a predictable step-down following a record fourth quarter, with results affected by delayed deliveries due to supply chain bottlenecks and customer-side logistics issues [7] - Management expects these shipments to be recognized in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, potentially reversing some of the first-quarter revenue shortfall [7] - Capps expressed confidence in the company's long-term trajectory, citing ongoing investments in operational optimization and liquidity improvements, along with a strong backlog and healthy pipeline of opportunities [8] Factors Influencing Revenue - Revenue was significantly impacted by shipment delays, with approximately $5.5 million in orders completed but not recognized due to timing issues with third-party component deliveries or customer logistics [10] - Elevated G&A costs were influenced by one-time expenses related to international restructuring and tax advisory services, further affecting operating income [11] Guidance - Management reiterated expectations for a stronger second quarter as delayed shipments are recognized and new opportunities arise, citing strong market tailwinds and customer demand as positive indicators for the remainder of fiscal 2026 [12] Other Developments - MIND is nearing completion of an expansion project at its Huntsville, TX facility, which will enhance its ability to provide repair and manufacturing services [13] - The Seamap product line continues to see broad deployment, creating future aftermarket service opportunities [13]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific sectors showing growth while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price reached a historical high this week, increasing by 3.74% compared to last week [3] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up by 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in early June 2025 is 2.159 million tons, up by 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar down by 2.23%, cement price index up by 1.86%, rubber up by 2.21%, coke down by 5.65%, coking coal down by 1.05%, and iron ore down by 1.36% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and full steel tire operating rates changed by -0.07 percentage points, +0.90 percentage points, -1.0 percentage points, and -2.23 percentage points respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained unchanged this week, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -762 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.42% [5] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel up by 0.54%, copper up by 0.10%, and aluminum up by 2.87%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +78.85%, -18.19%, and +24.59% respectively [6] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points [6] Group 5: Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices remain at the highest level since 2011 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 1.39% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,760 yuan/ton, up by 2.87%, with estimated profit at 3,004 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 24.59% [7] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.13 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 130 yuan/ton this week [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 280 yuan/ton, down by 100 yuan/ton [8] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) this week is 1,243.05 points, up by 7.63% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.50%, up by 1.30 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.25% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles, up by 7.24% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high, indicating strong liquidity in the market [11] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical average profit levels due to new regulatory conditions and government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 3.74% week-on-week, reaching 3433 USD/oz [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [20] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in early June increased by 3.25% [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [10] - The rebar price decreased by 2.23% to 3070 RMB/ton [10] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a week-on-week increase of 4.12 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20760 RMB/ton, up 2.87% week-on-week [10] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate remains at a high level since 2011, with the price at 173500 RMB/ton [10] - The profit margin for flat glass is -58 RMB/ton, indicating low profitability in the real estate completion chain [77] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar is at a low level, with a current difference of 130 RMB/ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.13, indicating a stable pricing environment [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1243.05 points, up 7.63% week-on-week [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, while the commercial vehicle sector showed the best performance with a 7.24% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends, with those of 1 - 5Y maturities declining by about 0.2 - 1.25bp, 7Y and 30Y maturities rising by 0.10bp and 0.15bp respectively, and the 10Y maturity yield falling by 0.05bp. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank shifted to net injection, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.52% and fluctuated [3]. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the economic data in May was weak. Industrial added - value declined slightly, social retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. Financial data continued to show a differentiated trend, with government bonds still being the main support for social financing. Affected by the cooling of the real estate market and the replacement of hidden debts, the corporate credit demand weakened. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports declined slightly in May [3]. - Overseas, the US labor market continued to show resilience. The non - farm payrolls data in May was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. The impact of tariffs on prices had not yet appeared. In May, the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was adjusted to September [3]. - In terms of strategy, currently, China's domestic demand still needs to be boosted, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the central bank's second conduct of outright reverse repurchase this month to continuously maintain the balance and looseness of the capital market, treasury bond futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended that investors maintain a certain position. However, recently, the short - end treasury bond futures have been significantly weaker than the long - end, and the market differentiation is relatively serious. As the tax payment period approaches, market sentiment tends to be cautious. The weakening of the short - end and the increase in profit - taking orders may drive the yield to rise slightly in the short term and trigger the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end. Attention should be paid to the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end due to the short - term spread correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 109.015 (up 0.01%), 106.145 (unchanged), 102.466 (up 0.02%), and 120.520 (up 0.05%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 49941 (up 963), 46176 (down 294), 24997 (down 626), and 53995 (up 235) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were - 0.18 (down 0.01), - 0.03 (down 0.03), 0.06 (up 0.00), and 0.12 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads also showed different changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts remained unchanged at 194978, 151398, 117711, and 106182 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2198, 1859, 1730, and 665 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0222) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0225) [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.40bp, 1.50bp, 0.50bp, 0.35bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 6.28bp to 1.3872%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.09bp to 1.5209%. Shibor overnight decreased by 2.30bp to 1.3880%, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.20bp to 1.5100% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank planned to conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days). The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 242 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 173.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Economic Data - **Industrial and Investment Data**: In May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May was 19.1947 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to May was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [2]. - **Consumption Data**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20.3171 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [2]. - **Industrial Added - value Data**: In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 17, 20:30, US May retail sales monthly rate - June 18, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 (in ten thousand people) [3]