Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing down with only 50,000 new jobs added in December 2025, below the expected 73,000, indicating a decrease in hiring demand [2] - Despite the weak labor data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5%, providing some support for the market [2] - Gold prices tested the initial resistance level of $4,500 per ounce, closing at $4,509.03, up $31.86 or 0.71% for the day, and a total increase of $176.83 or 4.08% for the week [2][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold price broke through the $4,500 level, reaching a high of $4,517 before pulling back, indicating a bullish trend influenced by the non-farm employment data [4] - The daily moving average system is showing a steady upward trend, with indicators suggesting a potential challenge to the historical high of $4,550 [4] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with key resistance levels at $4,540-$4,560 and support levels at $4,490-$4,470 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market experienced a rebound after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising by up to 5%, reaching a two-week high [5] - U.S. plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil and rising gasoline and distillate inventories are seen as bearish factors for oil prices [5] - Market sentiment is currently more focused on short-term supply disruption risks rather than inventory data changes [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil price is in a downward trend, with significant resistance at $60.0-$61.0 and support at $57.5-$56.5 [6] - The current market trend indicates a potential for further declines, with short-term strategies suggesting selling on rebounds [6]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones rising, the Nasdaq declining, and the S&P 500 remaining stable, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards "safety and risk" [1] - Energy stocks surged while military stocks experienced significant gains, contrasting with Nvidia's substantial market value loss of nearly 690 billion RMB [1] Military Sector Insights - Military stocks are rising due to changing military budget forecasts, with Trump suggesting an increase from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion by 2027, emphasizing national interests [3] - Defense contractors and military manufacturers, such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, are expected to benefit from increased military spending, highlighting a transfer of financial commitments from taxpayers to current generations [3] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock closed at $189.11, down 2.17%, with a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a broader trend of tech stocks facing pressure [4] Oil Market Impact - International crude oil prices rose significantly, with WTI and Brent increasing by approximately 3% and 5%, respectively, amplifying geopolitical sensitivities and affecting market risk preferences [4] Interest Rate Expectations - There are mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for significant reductions to stimulate the economy, while others believe inflation is under control [5][8] - If the Fed does cut rates, asset prices, including stocks and commodities, may continue to rise; conversely, a denial of such cuts could lead to market corrections, particularly for high-valuation assets [8] Chinese Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, predicting a 20% increase for MSCI China and a 12% rise for the CSI 300 by 2026, indicating confidence in Chinese tech and consumer sectors [10] - The performance of popular Chinese stocks reflects a recognition of their fundamentals and a search for value amidst global capital flows [10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and not rely solely on short-term political and news-driven strategies, as long-term returns are tied to fundamentals and competitiveness [11] - Regulatory bodies should communicate expectations more transparently to mitigate market overreactions, while investors should enhance risk awareness to avoid being swayed by short-term volatility [11]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 10 日 1 月降息预期打消 —2025 年 12 月美国就业数据分析 频率：每月 事件：2026 年 1 月 9 日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布：2025 年 12 月非农 就业人数新增 5 万人，前值 6.4 万人；失业率录得 4.4%，前值 4.6%。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《PPI 超预期回升——2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评》2026- 01-09 2、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 3、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张岸天 S1090522070002 zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 宏观点评报告 图 1：时薪增速环比偏强（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market maintained low hiring and low layoffs in December, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.4%, ending a continuous upward trend [1] - Despite the drop in unemployment, job additions are slowing down, and future annual revisions may lead to further downward adjustments [1] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause interest rate cuts, as the unemployment rate did not rise further and multiple indicators suggest a low risk of job market slowdown [1] - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, the market anticipates only a 5% probability of a rate cut in January [1] - The market still expects two rate cuts in 2026, with the timing pushed to June and September [1] - Key events to watch for rising rate cut expectations include the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair [1]

1月10号结束，没有想到那很多投资者来讲就问说上证指数站稳4011后之后能不能往4200点方向走？和 讯投顾黄杰觉得下周来讲有个整固之后再往4200点方向走，资金有一些分化的一个状态。首先我们看到 开年以来港股ETF吸金百亿多只产品呢已经创新高了，也就是说资金他在做一个高低切的动作，往港股 方向再走一走。第二个花旗预测美联储在3月7月9月分别会降三次25个基点，会有降息的一个预期，啊 那么139它会降，还有一个我们可以以看到有个信息我要跟大家汇报一下，昨天晚上深交所发布公告， 对本周的几只个股，像盛通啊像丰隆都进行了重点的监控，重点监控其实是对于我个人觉得是传达了一 种高位的一种信号，像商业航天，像国防军工，如果下周不板了或者不再往上冲新创新高了，大家就可 以做一个适当的阶梯的减仓落袋为安，做一个高低切的一个状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with significant price fluctuations and external economic factors influencing gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are fluctuating around $4,461.54 per ounce, showing a daily volatility of over $70, as market participants await key economic data [1]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have led to a rebound in the US dollar index above 98, putting pressure on gold prices [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to US military actions in Venezuela, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment that supports gold prices [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The 50-day moving average has provided technical support for gold prices, with current support levels identified between $4,415 and $4,422, and a significant level at $4,445 [3]. - A recent Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing has caused a drop in gold's weight from 20.4% to 14.9%, potentially triggering passive selling of up to $7 billion [3][5]. - The gold market is facing short-term technical selling pressure, with significant sell-offs observed on January 8, where gold prices dropped nearly $70 [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is a focal point for market participants, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs, which is lower than the previous figure of 64,000 [5]. - Discrepancies in interest rate expectations between market forecasts and Federal Reserve guidance are contributing to gold price volatility [5][7]. - The probability of maintaining interest rates in January is 88.4%, with a 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut, influenced by recent hawkish comments from Fed officials [7]. Group 4: Central Bank Activity - Central bank gold purchases are a significant long-term support factor, with global central banks expected to add 634 tons of gold in 2025, and China's reserves increasing to 74.15 million ounces [7][9]. - China's gold reserves account for approximately 9.5% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating potential for continued accumulation [7]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly participating in the gold market, with trading volumes for micro gold contracts doubling, indicating a historical high in retail engagement [12]. - There is a divergence in fund flows, with significant outflows from gold ETFs, while Shanghai gold futures see substantial capital accumulation [12]. - Institutional views on gold prices vary, with some predicting a rise above $5,000 in the first half of the year, while others highlight the potential for significant sell-offs [12].

在BLS公布数据前，美东时间1月8日晚8点20分，美国总统在其旗下社交媒体平台上发布的一张图表引发财 经界高度关注。该图表包含的私营部门就业数据，与BLS周五公布的私人部门2025年新增就业人数完全吻 合。而此时距离官方预定的发布时间早了约12小时，这意味着美国总统至少提前12小时就获得了本应9日才 公之于众的12月就业数据，并提前将其曝光。 美东时间1月9日周五上午8点30分，美国劳工统计局（BLS）正式公布2025年12月美国非农就业报告，全年 的就业数据随之出炉。然而，这份本应严格保密的报告部分数据却疑似提前"泄密"，在社交媒体上引发轩然 大波，同时，不佳的非农数据也彻底粉碎了市场此前对美联储1月降息的预期。 从市场反应来看，尽管就业数据不佳，但美股却逆势上涨，标普500指数创下历史新高；黄金和白银价格也 纷纷上扬，黄金接近4500美元，白银接近80美元。与此同时，美元创去年12月10日以来的新高，美债收益率 也几乎没有下跌。 此外，这份非农报告基本上粉碎了市场关于美联储1月降息的预期。此前，1月不降息的概率从60%升至 95%。华尔街分析师认为，美国失业率低于预期"关闭了美联储降息的大门"。据CME" ...

前言： 你若有缘看到金晟富的文章，相信你也肯定是看了无数篇的文章，寻找了无数个老师，却依旧做不好一 单的交易，我相信大家进来这个市场，追求的是长期稳健的收益，可现实往往让大家迷失了本心，偏离 了初衷。现在，是做出改变的时候了，找到属于自己的机会，晟富要做的就是用自己多年以来丰富的经 验和专业能力助你洞悉行情的涨跌，透过涨跌看透行情的本质。 从日线结构看，昨日收报一根长下影探底饱满反阳K，一般来讲，这种形态的企稳作用都相对强烈，也 意味着短期10均线位置基本确认完毕，这周的震荡区间下轨4400基本也就出来了，后续就看上轨4500的 突破，拿下之后或又展开新的高位区间或走趋势拉升；黄金4小时图来看：昨夜一波探底拉升之后，站 上了中轨和10均线，今日则双双成为顶底支撑，也就是守住4480-4460这个范围，此周期依然倾向于偏 强看涨；从小时线周期分析，价格下探4452后形成逐步抬升的低点，MACD指标在零轴上方维持金叉 状态，红柱温和放量，显示短期多头动能仍在延续；布林带轨道开口走平，价格依托布林中轨震荡上 行，当前运行至中轨与上轨之间，上轨4520附近存在初步压力，下轨4480则构成日内短期支撑；RSI指 标运行 ...

本文转自【央视财经】； 受持续的市场避险需求推动，贵金属价格全周上涨，其中纽商所黄金期货主力合约价格上涨3.96%，纽商所白银期货主力合约价格上涨11.72%。9日美国 三大股指集体收涨，全周累计上涨，欧洲三大股指集体上涨。 9日美国三大股指集体收涨 全周累计上涨 9日欧洲三大股指集体上涨 欧洲市场方面，本周五，受矿业巨头"力拓"与"嘉能可"合并谈判的消息提振，嘉能可公司股价大涨，科技股领涨助推欧洲三大股指当天全线收涨。其 中，英国富时100指数上涨0.80%，法国CAC40指数上涨1.44%，德国DAX指数涨0.53%。 9日国际油价上涨 全周布油涨超4% 当地时间本周五，美国劳工统计局公布去年最后一个月的非农就业报告，去年12月美国非农新增就业人数低于预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，就业数据好 坏参半、美股风险偏好回归，再加上多家芯片制造商股价上涨的提振，美国三大指数本周五集体收涨，其中道指涨0.48%，标普500指数涨幅0.65%，纳 指涨0.81%。从周线上看，美股芯片板块本周强势上涨，提振了市场情绪，美国三大股指集体上涨，其中道指累计涨2.32%，标普500指数上涨1.57%，纳 指上涨1.88%。 ...

来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：金价周线收阳，静待下周多空抉择 昨日黄金市场呈现稳步上涨格局。亚欧盘时段整体波动有限，价格于区间内窄幅整理；直至美盘前，金 价经历一波短暂回落后开启上扬，并一举突破4500美元整数大关，最高触及4516美元。尾盘阶段，价格 自高位有所回落，但最终仍收于4510美元上方，日线录得一根实体阳线。 下周（12月11日美联储利率决议前），联储官员将进入缄默期，公开言论将显著减少，市场情绪将主要 围绕现有数据进行博弈与解读。因此，下周开盘后需重点关注市场对非农等关键数据的持续性解读与消 化，这将成为周初主导短期走势的关键。同时，需密切留意周末可能出现的任何地缘政治或经济新闻， 若因此导致周一开盘出现明显跳空缺口，应避免在缺口形成初期盲目追涨杀跌，耐心等待市场情绪稳 定、方向明确后再行操作。关注张津镭。 基于上述分析，下周操作思路张津镭建议，请各位金友严格控仓，并带好止损止盈： 观察高位阻力：若金价高开后反弹至4530-4550美元区域，但出现上行动能减弱、无法有效突破的迹 象，可考虑轻仓试空。目标可先看4480-4450美元区域，止损建议设置在阻力区上方（如4560美元）。 等待突破确认 ...