以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 上周我们在文章中刚刚给大家预告—— 接下来黄金将会开启一波大幅度上涨。 上周文章截图 没想到这才过了个周末，这个预判就被验证了。 今天上午，COMEX期货黄金价格涨超1%，价格突破3550美元/盎司， 最高达到3557.1美元/盎司，创历史新高。 现货黄金价格最高达到3489美元 /盎司，接近前高的3499美元 /盎司。 国内的黄金股，也有非常好的表现。 比如 西部黄金 直接涨停， 湖南黄金 大涨8%； 中金黄金、山东黄金、山金国际、赤峰黄金 基本都大涨超过6%。 黄金一大早就开始逼近4月份的前高点，这说明两点： 第一，从技术面上看，黄金持续4个多月的震荡行情已经结束， 震荡结束价格实现突破之后，黄金将会开启主升行情； 第二，黄金的行情才刚刚启动就已经接近前高的位置，这就意味着 接下来黄金一旦开始拉升，价格将会大大突破前高的价位，价格将会冲击3700- 4000美元 /盎司。 黄金上涨的逻辑，我之前在我们的文章中就已经说过很多次了： 微观上是 美联储降息的预期 ，宏观上是 美 ...

——美联储降息预期持续发酵，黄金再创历史新高—— 周二(9月2日)国际黄金价格突破3500美元关口，创下历史新高。随着市场对美联储本月降息预期升温， 对贵金属的需求明显增加。欧盘现货黄金交投在3480美元，盘中一度触及3508.50美元的纪录高位。 推动金价最新一轮上涨的主要因素之一，是市场对美联储降息预期的升温，即便幅度仅为25个基点。在 美国5月和6月劳动力市场数据大幅下修后，市场对货币政策长期期待的宽松显著增强。 ——黄金技术面分析，晚间如何操作？—— 交易之道，刚者易折。惟有至阴至柔，方可纵横天下。天下柔弱者莫如水，然上善若水。成功，等于小 的亏损，加上大大小小的利润，多次累积。做到不出现大亏损很简单，以生存为第一原则，当出现妨碍 这一原则的危险时，抛弃其他一切原则，在交易中，永远有你想不到的事情，会让你发生亏损。需不需 要止损的最简单方法，就是问自己一个问题：假设现在还没有建立仓位，是否还愿意在此价位买进。答 案如果是否定，马上卖出，毫不犹豫。逆势操作是失败的开始，不应该对抗市场，或尝试击败他，没有 必要比市场精明，趋势来时，应之，随之，无趋势时，观之，静之。 黄金从日线上看，日线图显示，由于14日 ...

盈利预期：上周港股可选消费盈利下修。 横向对比来看，上周美股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，欧股、港股次之，日股表现最末。其中： 1 ）港股 盈利预期下修，恒生指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 2190 下修至 2140 。 2 ）美股盈利预期持平，标普 500 指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期由 268 上修至 269 。 3 ）欧股盈利预期下修，欧元区 STOXX50 指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 335 上修至 336 。 经济预期：上周中美经济预期上修。 从经济领先指数看，过去一周，花旗美国经济意外指数上升，主要受益于美联储降息预期、英伟达等科技龙头中报亮眼 等提振；欧洲经济意外指数下降，或受 8 月欧元区经济景气指数下跌影响；中国经济意外指数上升，或得益于政策预期催化、居民入市预期、中报结构性亮 点等催化。 资金流动：上周全球宏观流动性小幅转松。 从央行政策利率看，近期多位美联储官员暗示 9 月降息。截至 8/29 ，期货市场隐含利率显示市场预期美联储年 内降息 2.2 次、较前周上升。上周美元流动性边际收紧。全球微观流动性上， 7 月资金主要流入印度、欧洲、中国香港与韩 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The methanol market has a loose supply situation, with high domestic methanol开工率 and increasing imports. Port inventories are at a record high, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Against this backdrop, the strategy is to short at high prices rather than chase short positions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures price fluctuated and closed at 2372 (+13/+0.55%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2040 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 2030 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From August 23 - 29, 2025, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 1,066,107 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 73.08%, a 1.19% increase from the previous week. During this period, Iranian plants were operating normally, while some plants in other regions had different operating conditions [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The coal - producing areas in the northwest have increased coal mine开工率 and falling coal prices. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 650 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is loose. Import prices decreased slightly last week, and the import profit margin expanded. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, and non - Iranian plants have stable operations [5]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season with a decline in开工率, while the MTO device开工率 has rebounded. Some MTO plants have different operating loads [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are increasing due to more imports, and the basis is strong. Inland enterprise inventories fluctuate slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Short at high prices, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell call options [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by multiple factors including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has boosted gold prices [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported 3% year-on-year growth in global gold demand by Q2 2025, and the People's Bank of China has been consistently adding to its gold holdings [3]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers - The cost of purchasing traditional wedding gold items has significantly increased, with estimates suggesting an additional cost of nearly 10,000 yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - Ordinary investors are facing a dilemma; many are hesitant to buy gold at high prices due to fears of potential price drops, while others worry about missing out on further price increases [6]. - Gold shops are experiencing a mixed impact; while sales of gold jewelry have decreased, the demand for investment gold bars has risen as consumers tend to buy more when prices are increasing [6]. Group 3: Consumer Strategies - Consumers are advised to make purchases based on necessity; for urgent needs like wedding gold, it is recommended to buy simpler designs to manage costs [10]. - For investment purposes, it is suggested to avoid chasing high prices and instead wait for price corrections to buy in increments [10]. - Alternatives such as gold ETFs are recommended to mitigate the challenges of storing physical gold [10][11].

宏观氛围较好，旺季复苏持续 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：陈凯丽 执业证书编号：S0740525050001 Email：chenkl@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 141 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 40,523.71 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 38,091.88 | 1、《美联储 9 月降息仍存变数，金 属价格窄幅震荡》2025-08-19 2、《【中泰金属观察-全球制造业 PMI 跟踪】全球制造业 PMI 跟踪：7 月， 再次转弱 20250811》2025-08-12 3、《全球铜资源"Copper20"跟踪 系列：Codelco 智利国家铜业公司》 2025-08-05 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 02 日 报告摘要 【本周关键词】：降息预期升温，8 月国内制造业 PMI 小幅回升，旺季复苏持续。 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级。 在美联储降息预期升温的同时 8 月国内制造业 PMI 小幅回升，宏观氛围较好。基 ...

受美国降息预期强化和美元持续疲软的影响，国际金价周二再创历史新高。现货黄金最高触及3508.70 美元/盎司，日内涨幅超过0.7%。国内贵金属市场同样延续强势走势，沪金和沪银主力合约日内继续刷 新阶段性高位，尽管午后涨幅有所回落，但收盘仍分别上涨1.21%和2.33%。 多家期货公司对贵金属后市持乐观态度。光大期货指出，白银不仅受金融属性影响，同时强劲的工业需 求也在被深度挖掘，为其价格上涨提供了额外动力。一旦就业等宏观数据超预期下行，弱美元背景下， 贵金属或存在上冲动力。 降息预期与地缘风险推动金价再创新高 市场降息预期主要源于近期美国经济数据的走弱。据CME美联储观察工具显示，交易员目前预计美联 储在9月政策会议上降息25个基点的可能性高达90%。 地缘政治风险的升温也为贵金属提供了额外支撑。据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月1日上午8点50分，也 门胡塞武装发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚发表视频声明称，胡塞武装向红海北部的以色列油轮"猩红射线 （Scarlet Ray）"号发射了导弹。市场分析指出，这一事件加剧了中东地区的紧张局势，推动市场避险 情绪上升。此外，俄乌冲突及泰柬地缘政治紧张局势也在持续影响市场风险偏好。 ...

本周初，金价维持强劲的买盘基调，尽管目前略微回落至3,470美元/盎司区间。美联储下半年降息预期强劲支撑了贵金属的持续上涨，而美元的弱势也助长 了金价上涨。 XAU/USD技术面概述： 在地缘政治方面，俄罗斯上周对乌克兰城市进行了致命袭击，发射了598架无人机和诱饵弹以及31枚导弹。乌克兰总统泽连斯基誓言将下令对俄罗斯境内进 行报复性打击。乌克兰周日表示，在过去24小时内已击落112架乌克兰无人机。 KVB官网从技术角度来看，周五突破3,440美元的供应区间（即三个多月以来交易区间的上边界），被视为XAU/USD多头的新触发点。此外，日线图上的振 荡指标持续走高，支持金价进一步上涨。然而，日线相对强弱指数(RSI)已接近突破超买区域，这表明金价可能在3,500美元心理关口附近稍作喘息，该关口 是4月份创下的历史高点。 另一方面，任何修正性回调现在都可能在3,440美元阻力位附近找到不错的支撑。任何进一步的下跌都可能被视为买入机会，并且更有可能在3,400美元附近 保持有限。后者应该会成为黄金强劲的短期基础，如果果断跌破，可能会引发一些技术性抛售，并为进一步下跌铺平道路。黄金/美元可能进一步下跌至 3,372美 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market was closed on Labor Day, shifting market focus to Federal Reserve board member candidates and interest rate policy [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen indicated that several candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are also being considered for two vacant board positions [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, there is an 89.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 10.4% [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for rate cuts in October are nearly evenly split, with probabilities of 47.3% for a 25 basis point cut and 47.9% for a 50 basis point cut [1] - AvaTrade offers an online trading platform for U.S. stocks, featuring widely used trading software MT4/MT5, allowing for both long and short positions [1] - The company has received accolades from financial media, highlighting its competitive spreads, zero commissions, and flexible leverage options, with oil trading offering up to 100 times leverage [1]