Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further examination. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to go long at low costs and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at high levels [3][5]. - The center of the oil market is supported, and palm oil is expected to be bullish in the range before the inventory is fully accumulated and the demand feedback is negative [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures is likely to continue to decline, while the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures may have upward momentum in the short term [12][15]. - The egg market's negative cycle of oversupply remains unbroken, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [19]. - The pig market is considered in a range, with more attention paid to trading opportunities after extreme sentiment, and the reverse spread strategy for far - month contracts continues [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell slightly, and the domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.51 days. Last week, the domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level [3]. - **Weather**: The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August, with rainfall forecast to resume in early September [3]. - **Production**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal spot will start to reduce inventory in September, supporting the oil mill's profit margins. It is recommended to go long at low costs in the cost range of soybean meal [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, and the production first increased and then decreased. In August, China's soybean imports and oil mill crushings were still high, and the rapeseed imports decreased. At night on Wednesday, the three major domestic oils oscillated weakly [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft may suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil market is expected to be bullish in the range before the inventory is fully accumulated and the demand feedback is negative [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be reduced to 44.5 million tons [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 54% [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the approaching consumption season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, with some falling. The supply is stabilizing, and the downstream digestion speed is slowing down. Today's egg prices are expected to be stable, with individual slight adjustments [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market's oversupply cycle remains unbroken. It is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [19]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly fell, with some rising locally. It is expected that pig prices in the north may rise slightly, and those in the south may fall slightly or remain stable today [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term logic is to release pressure due to oversupply. The market is considered in a range, and the reverse spread strategy for far - month contracts continues [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals of soybeans have no significant changes. The growth of US soybeans this year is good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory continues to increase with sufficient supply. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, the supply in the domestic market is becoming more abundant, while the demand is weak, and the price has limited upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn production and Sino - US trade negotiations [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 粕类 Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3081 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.15%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2526 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.82%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US export inspection: As of the week ending August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 38.28 tons. Since the 2024/25 season, the US soybean export inspection volume has been 4927.99 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%, reaching 96.6% of the annual export target [1] Market Analysis - The current fundamentals of soybeans have no significant changes. The growth of US soybeans this year is good, consistent with the historical high yield of 53.6 bushels per acre in the USDA report. The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to increase, and the supply is relatively loose. The future soybean arrivals in China are still high, and the soybean meal inventory may further increase. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] 2. Corn Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2158 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.19%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2475 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.24%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - US export inspection: As of the week ending August 21, the US corn export inspection volume was 130.53 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%. Since the 2024/25 season, the US corn export inspection volume has been 6552.59 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, reaching 91.5% of the USDA target. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, unchanged from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - Domestically, the trade inventory of corn in the Northeast is decreasing, and traders are actively selling. The autumn corn in Hubei is about to be listed, and a small amount of spring corn in the Huaihe River area has been listed, so the supply is becoming more abundant. The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased, and the inventory has continued to decline. Feed enterprises maintain a rigid demand for corn and mainly use inventory. The price has limited upward momentum, and the overall demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents a "volatile" view on various agricultural products including corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand factors, and price trends, and also gives corresponding trading strategies [1][2] 3) Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: The corn futures market is in a volatile state. The spot price is weak, with the price in Northeast China moving towards the new - grain price and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the short - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the November contract at the 2150 integer mark [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to technical trading, and the US soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic soybean meal production has increased and prices have declined. Market expectations of a US soybean purchase agreement and state - reserve soybean auctions are affecting the market. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and participate in monthly positive spreads [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil declined due to profit - taking. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased, while the production decreased. The domestic three major vegetable oils are mainly volatile, with inventory pressure increasing and demand remaining weak. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is estimated to strengthen. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures are in a low - level volatile adjustment. The spot price has a slight increase, with stable terminal digestion and most traders purchasing as they sell. The supply pressure still affects the spot price, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2] - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weakly volatile. The spot price has declined, with large - scale farms increasing their slaughter volume and supply exceeding market digestion. According to seasonal patterns, there is support for pig prices as demand recovers, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the reaction of the futures market to spot prices and changes in policies and market sentiment [2] Market Information - As of August 24, EU's 2025/26 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn all decreased compared to the same period last year [3] - As of August 26, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [3] - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [3] - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production decreased by 1.21% [3] Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][18][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural product market, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. It assesses the current market situation, important information, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each category [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the East China basis remained unchanged at 01 - 110. The downstream inventory days increased slightly by 0.16 days to 8.51 days. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.27 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.5283 million tons. The domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly last week, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the overall equivalent soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The US soybean production area is expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August overall, with rainfall forecast to recover in early September. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market has both strong supply and demand, and the提货 volume has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot market may start to reduce inventory in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67%, and the exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to increase by 10.9% - 16.4%. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and it is expected to increase by 0.3% from August 1 - 20. In August, China's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushing volume are still high, and the commercial soybean oil inventory at the end of August is expected to increase by 8 - 100,000 tons. Due to China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed imports have decreased recently, and some areas have cancelled orders. It is expected that the rapeseed oil inventory at the end of August will decrease month - on - month. A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban on Monday, temporarily suspending a decision that required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft is expected to suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production remains at a neutral level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventory, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Before the inventories in the sales areas and producing areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from the demand in the sales areas, the oils and fats are expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 2.9169 million tons, down from 3.3179 million tons in the previous week [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: From an international perspective, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there is an expected increase in production in the new season in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India. The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price in the future is low. Domestically, the import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot price of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 54%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but still significantly higher than the same period last year and at a relatively high level in the same period [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: From a macro perspective, the "dovish" statement of the Fed Chairman on Friday is beneficial for the commodity market to rise. Fundamentally, although the current downstream market consumption is still average, considering the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the current low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement. The Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.06 yuan to 3.11 yuan/jin. The supply is stabilizing, the downstream digestion speed is normal, most traders have normal confidence in the future market, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream picking - up enthusiasm is normal. The egg price may rise in some areas and remain stable in others today [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. On one hand, the number of newly - laid hens is still increasing, and the proportion of small and medium - sized eggs continues to rise. On the other hand, the consumption postponement caused by supply pressure intensifies the cautious mentality. Only low prices or the start of consumption can break the negative cycle. Before the actual reduction of overall production capacity, the egg price should not be overly optimistic. From a capital game perspective, the current high position in the futures market and the high premium of the near - month contract have been partially corrected. Under the background of reduced selling pressure, it is not advisable to short aggressively. In the future, the strategy should be to reduce short positions or short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally fell. The average price in Henan dropped 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.05 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter increased, but there was some reluctance to sell at low prices. The pig price may be stable or fall today [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current logic is to release pressure by reducing the weight under oversupply. The near - month contract is weakly affected by the spot market. On one hand, policies such as state purchases to support the market are increasing, which may continuously suppress the bearish sentiment. On the other hand, it is still uncertain whether the potential pressure on inventory in the third - quarter end after the increase in the fat - to - standard price difference can offset the increasing supply trend. The market should be viewed with a range - bound idea, and for unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after extreme sentiment provides trading space. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [22].

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 现货购销良好，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3117元/吨，较前日变动+29元/吨，幅度+0.94%；菜粕2509合约2547元/吨，较前 日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.16%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M09-17， 较前日变动-9；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-107，较前日变动+1；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动-9。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09+63，较前日变动+16。 近期市场资讯，Pro Farmer 估计美国玉米产量为 162.04 亿蒲式耳，平均产量为每英亩 182.7 蒲式耳。估计美国大 豆产量为 42.46 亿蒲式耳，平均每英亩 53 蒲式耳。咨询机构AgResource表示，巴西2025/2026年度大豆产量预计 为1.765亿吨，较上一年度增长3%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The upward space of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be limited by concerns over production growth and potential slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. Domestic palm oil futures may strengthen again and are expected to rise to the 9800 - 10000 yuan range around the end of the month, but there is a risk of ending the upward trend. In September, there is a risk of a downward trend due to increased production and inventory in Malaysia [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The market expects the US EPA to rule on the backlog of biofuel exemption applications from small refineries. Partial approvals are positive for biodiesel demand, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean oil. In China, downstream consumption increases in late August, and if domestic soybean oil futures decline due to external market factors, the basis quote may rise further [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, with the futures price at a low level. However, the decline may be limited or there may be a slight rebound as new - season corn has not fully entered the market. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and with stable or increased production, there will be significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans remains high. Canadian rapeseed supply to China is tight, and aquaculture demand is expected to increase. Although there are concerns about future import pressure, the cost of domestic meal still has strong support, and the downward space for domestic meal is limited [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs remains stable with small fluctuations. Consumption is driven by the start of school and cooler weather in the north. There is a short - term positive impact on the futures market, but there may be a concentrated slaughter before the double festivals, and the near - term market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying far - month contracts below 14000 yuan [8]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is under pressure from expected supply increases, but there is a risk of lower production in Brazil. It is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range in the short term. The domestic sugar futures market is strong, but the spot market is resistant to high prices. With an expected increase in imports, the price has limited upward potential and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [13]. - **Cotton**: The tight old - crop inventory and lower import data in July support the cotton price. However, with the upcoming new - season cotton harvest and expected stable or increased production, the short - term price may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the release of cold - stored eggs will increase the supply pressure. The downstream market has slow digestion, and traders are cautious. The egg price is expected to be bearish [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9620 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9510 yuan, up 74 yuan. The basis decreased significantly [1]. - **Market Factors**: Exports support Malaysian palm oil, but production growth and inventory increase are potential negatives. In China, consumption and market sentiment affect the price [1]. Soybean Oil - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8690 yuan, up 30 yuan. The futures price of Y2601 was 8492 yuan, up 70 yuan [1]. - **Market Factors**: The US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions and domestic consumption during the school - opening and festival - preparation periods affect the price [1]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2175 - 2240 yuan/ton, with a slight change. The futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2498 yuan, up 14 yuan [2]. - **Market Factors**: Supply increases due to more vehicles at deep - processing plants and import auctions. Demand is cautious as enterprises wait for new - season corn [2]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, down 20 yuan. The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 20 yuan [6]. - **Market Factors**: The yield outlook of US soybeans, the supply of Canadian rapeseed, and domestic import pressure affect the price [6]. Hogs - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of the main hog futures contract was 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The spot price in different regions had small fluctuations [8]. - **Market Factors**: Consumption changes, market sentiment, and potential concentrated slaughter before festivals affect the price [8]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic white sugar 2601 was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The international ICE raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound, up 0.08 cents [13]. - **Market Factors**: International supply expectations, Brazilian production conditions, and domestic import expectations affect the price [13]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The international ICE cotton price was 68.00 cents/pound, up 0.53 cents [14]. - **Market Factors**: Old - crop inventory, import data, and new - season production expectations affect the price [14]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of the egg 09 contract was 2920 yuan/500KG, up 41 yuan. The egg产区 price was 3.18 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan [17]. - **Market Factors**: Sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion lead to a bearish price trend [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market has near - term supply pressure reduction due to less near - month rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal aquaculture demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues, with a bullish bias and high volatility [2]. - The rapeseed oil market faces short - term consumption off - season and ample supply, but low oil mill operation rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market shows a narrow - range oscillation and suggests a bullish approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9891 yuan/ton (up 1), rapeseed meal at 2547 yuan/ton (up 4), ICE rapeseed at 665 CAD/ton (up 3.2), and domestic rapeseed at 4843 yuan/ton (down 29) [2]. - Spreads and positions: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 174 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was 74 yuan/ton (unchanged). Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 291283 hands (down 5), rapeseed meal were 422516 hands (up 1488). Rapeseed oil net long positions of top 20 were 6365 hands (down 98), rapeseed meal were - 4882 hands (up 3873) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 (unchanged), rapeseed meal were 8066 (down 187) [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9950 yuan/ton (up 50), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2580 yuan/ton (up 40), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), imported rapeseed cost was 8346.97 yuan/ton (up 66.31) [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 3.84 (up 0.05), rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 60 yuan/ton (down 49), rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 33 yuan/ton (up 36), rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1270 yuan/ton (up 20), rapeseed - palm oil spread was 410 yuan/ton (up 130), soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 480 yuan/ton (down 30) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), domestic rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). Rapeseed imports were 17.6 million tons (down 0.85 million tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 million tons (up 4 million tons), rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 million tons (up 7.56 million tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory at oil mills was 15 million tons (unchanged), imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 12.79% (up 0.85%), imported rapeseed crushing profit was 613 yuan/ton (down 18) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons (down 0.55 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons (up 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons (up 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons (up 0.29 million tons), rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons (up 0.52 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: Feed production was 2937.7 million tons (up 175.6 million tons), edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 million tons (up 41.8 million tons), and catering revenue was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: Rapeseed meal call option implied volatility was 20.89% (up 0.18%), put option implied volatility was 0.13% (up 0.07%), 60 - day historical volatility was 20.89% (up 0.11%), 20 - day historical volatility was 22.11% (up 0.07%). Rapeseed oil call option implied volatility was 14.39% (up 0.29%), put option implied volatility was 0.49% (up 0.3%), 60 - day historical volatility was 14.99% (up 0.13%), 20 - day historical volatility was 19.87% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose on August 22 due to rising soybean oil prices. The November contract closed 3.20 CAD higher at 666.50 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 3.10 CAD to 677.50 CAD/ton [2]. - Pro Farmer predicted US soybean average yield at a record - high 53.0 bushels/acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, similar to USDA forecasts [2]. - AAFC estimated Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons (up 12.9% from July), and ending stocks at 2.2 million tons (doubled from last month) [2]. - The US EPA's new decision on small refinery biofuel exemptions may boost large - refinery biofuel demand and benefit US soybean oil [2].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil & Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply and demand, price trends, and policy impacts. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as considering buying at low prices for some products and being cautious about market uncertainties [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures contracts decreased with increasing positions. Short - term auction of domestic soybeans brought supply pressure, and weak demand depressed prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rebounded from a low level. US soybean prices were strong despite high - record yields due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Short - term attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic futures market continued to decline with decreasing positions. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerged due to biodiesel policies. In China, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year due to US tariff policies. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops. The relationship between US soybeans and domestic futures has weakened. If no trade agreement is reached by the end of this year, domestic soybean meal prices may rise. The medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean prices were strong due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Attention should be paid to the China - US soybean trade relationship. The US EPA's policy on small refineries may cause structural adjustments in biofuel demand. Indonesia's policies on palm oil may drive up prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in the production cycle. In the long - term, the development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains. Investors can consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil price rose while the rapeseed meal price fell. The vegetable oil sector was boosted by the overnight overseas market. The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel fields of the US and the EU is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and futures prices may continue to rise [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract showed a short - term adjustment trend. The auction of imported corn by CGSGB had a low success rate. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The weather in domestic corn - producing areas is favorable, and new - season production may increase. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The government announced a central frozen - pork purchase and storage plan, which led to a higher opening of the futures market. The supply of live pigs in the second half of the year is expected to be high, and the spot price may continue to decline. The policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [8]. Eggs - Egg futures prices dropped rapidly in the past month due to over - capacity in the industry and weak prices during the peak season. The industry has been in losses for four months. If egg prices remain weak during the peak season, there may be a significant capacity reduction, which could support prices next year. Investors can consider buying at low prices [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For apples, the current inventory is low, and the expected new - season output has little change compared to last year. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] - For red dates, there is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season output. The market is sensitive to weather changes in the production area. Under the condition that the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures price may rise in the short - term due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in production is less than expected, the price may turn weak [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8103 yuan/ton, a change of +39 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The increasing volume of early - maturing Gala apples impacted the sales of stored apples. The inventory of stored apples is low, which supports the price. The quality of early - maturing apples is poor, and the sales of both early - maturing and stored apples were average last week. The profit of merchants has declined. This week, the supply of early - maturing varieties may squeeze the sales of stored apples, and the price of Gala apples in some areas may decline [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11470 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (-0.52%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The main production areas are in the fruit - expanding period. The first - crop fruit setting was average, while the second and third - crop were better. The futures price is sensitive to weather changes in the production area. There is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season output. The spot price is strong, and the trading atmosphere has improved [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The futures price may rise in the short - term due to capital sentiment when the reduction in production cannot be disproven. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in production is less than expected, the price may turn weak [8]