June 27, 2025 10:27 AM GMT 中国 - 经济温度计 | Asia Pacific 静候秋天 二季度GDP同比或达5%，7月政治局出台新支持的迫切性低。 但6月以来体感已分化，出口初见走软，楼市拖累深化，消费 依赖于促销。三季度GDP可能回落至4.5%，温和的财政刺激 或开在初秋时。 二季度增长强劲，但六月数据显露隐忧 6月前半个月零售总额保持强劲，但需谨慎解读：6月份⯥ⶐ个月线上家电销售同 比增速进一步ⱶ快，从5月份的45%攀ⶍ⮽了90%。然而，截止6月15日当周的强Ⲏ 表现或源自于消费⯥置，ⷊ消费者在得知部⮇地的以旧换新补贴资金用尽后， 抢跑下，以便在618促销期间享受"⹙重折扣"，尽管平台补贴通常在6月17–18 日达⮽峰值。 6月份中国对美出口有所回升，但整体出口或进一步放缓：6月份的高频数据显示 了与5月份相似的口结构，ⷊ对美口有所改善，但整体口ⲁ能可能⬵ 弱。6月以来，中国至美集装箱船只数量大幅反弹（ Exhibit 2 ），可能反映了美国 假日购物季⯥的季节性备货需求。然而，全国主要港口的集装箱吞吐量同比增速 从5月的5%降至0.7%（ Exhibit 1 ），显示中国对其 ...

232 条款落地前，美国已从非美地区转移约 40 万吨铜，预计未来一到 两个月或增加 20 万吨，导致非美市场供应紧张。该条款落地后铜价可 能回调，但幅度预计不大，或提供买入机会，LME 铜价第一目标位为 11,000 美元/吨，国内铜价为 81,000-82,000 元/吨。 机构通过跟踪 17 家主要铜矿企业（占全球供应 55%）及引入 Tapir 铜 矿发运数据，将全年铜矿增速调整至 0.6%，增量约 13 万吨。同时，考 虑到关税和高利率的影响，消费增速也调整为 0.6%，全年铜平衡表仍 显示紧缺格局。 铜在有色金属板块中基本面最强劲，矿端供应受限，废铜进口因 CL 价 差下降，电铜因 232 条款现货供应紧张。商品投资者倾向于增配铜，对 冲或配置其他板块，长期基金也高度关注铜市场。 当前市场环境下，铜价整体呈现易涨难跌的趋势，得益于其强劲的基本 面提供的长期趋势支撑。自 4 月 2 日以来的反弹中，铜价在各类商品中 表现突出，较早触底反弹，并具备相互矛盾的配合因素，支撑其继续上 行。 Q&A 当前铜市场的主要驱动因素是什么，以及对 LME 和国内库存有何影响？ 当前铜市场的主要驱动因素是美国 232 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong financial performance of Yingke Medical, with significant revenue and profit growth in 2024 [1][3] - Yingke Medical reported a revenue of 9.523 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.65% [1][3] - The net profit for 2024 reached 1.492 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 284.54% [1][3] Group 2 - The annual production capacity of disposable gloves increased from 79 billion units at the end of March 2024 to 87 billion units by the end of March 2025, with a capacity utilization rate of 96.10% [1][3] - The company holds a significant amount of unconverted USD and has increased short-term borrowings to meet operational funding needs, with short-term borrowings rising to 12.666 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [1] - Yingke Medical maintains a strong liquidity position, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 12.014 billion yuan and trading financial assets of 6.737 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of insurance products with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.5% reflects a historical low, driven by a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking guaranteed rates to market rates, indicating a significant shift in the insurance landscape [1][2]. Liability Side Transformation - Some insurance companies have launched participating insurance products with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.5%, which is below the regulatory upper limit, leading to potential price increases or reduced returns for consumers [2]. - The decline in guaranteed interest rates presents both opportunities and challenges for insurance companies, allowing them to reduce new policy liability costs while also risking lower investment returns and customer dissatisfaction [2][3]. - Insurance companies are actively transforming their liability side by promoting floating return products and enhancing the overall value of policies through improved services and expanded coverage [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The insurance industry is increasingly focusing on equity investments to adapt to the new interest rate environment, with regulatory support encouraging higher equity asset allocations [4][5]. - Insurance companies are diversifying their investment strategies, emphasizing long-term stable returns through increased allocations in equities and high-dividend assets, while also exploring new investment opportunities in sectors like renewable energy and AI [5][6]. - The proportion of bonds in life insurance companies' portfolios has surpassed 51%, marking a historical high, while equity investments are becoming a key driver for enhancing returns [5]. Balancing "Three Differences" - The industry is urged to maintain a balance among mortality, expense, and interest differences to ensure sustainable development amid changing interest rates [7][8]. - Regulatory support is deemed crucial for minimizing short-term impacts from accounting standards and solvency rules, while also encouraging innovation and risk management [7][8]. - Insurance companies are advised to enhance operational efficiency, control costs, and strengthen risk management to support the balance of the "three differences" [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government prioritizes the expansion of icebreakers and ice-class vessels along specific shipping routes to enhance maritime border security and ensure balanced development of the shipping industry [1] Industry Summary - The focus is on increasing the fleet of multipurpose nuclear-powered icebreakers and ice-class vessels necessary for year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic transport corridor [1]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 伊美底线再确认；美国关税谈判冲刺 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：伊朗和以色列宣布停火；北约峰会；美国贸易谈判多方进展。 未来一周：美国贸易谈判；地缘冲突。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： ❑ 风险提示：美国政策变化超预期；国际关系变化超预期。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 1）伊朗和以色列宣布停火。伊美双方底线再确认，即对于伊朗，最终顾虑 可能是美国的全面卷入将威胁伊朗自身政权的生存；对于美国，特朗普 的最终顾虑可能是美军重新陷入中东战争的泥潭，这对于过去十多年来 寻求战略重心转移的美国将是一个倒退。底线思维推动短期缓和，但停 火仍脆弱。若接下来伊美无法达成协议，不排除以色列恢复军事行动的 风险；或更激化的情况，即伊朗加快铀浓缩进程，则中长期看中东冲突 将升级至全新阶段。 2）北约峰会提高国防开支 GDP 占比至 5%。 3）美国关税谈判多方进展。中美双方进一步确认了此前会谈框架细节；美 国与日本、韩国等进行新一轮贸易谈判；特朗普宣布停止与加拿大所有 贸易谈判。 ❑ 未来一 ...

Group 1 - Cai Lan passed away on June 25, 2023, in Hong Kong, with no ceremonies held as per his wishes [2] - Cai Lan was a co-founder and spiritual leader of the "Cai Lan Pho" and "Cai Lan Dim Sum" brands, emphasizing the importance of quality in food preparation [2] - Cai Lan's philosophy included the belief in spending time on beautiful things, setting a standard for lifestyle aesthetics in business [2] Group 2 - The 2025 New Wealth 500 list was released, with ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming topping the list with a valuation of 481.57 billion yuan [4] - The wealth of Nongfu Spring founder Zhong Shanshan decreased by nearly 100 billion yuan, placing him second with a valuation of 360 billion yuan [4] - Tencent's Ma Huateng ranked third nationally with a valuation of 306.7 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 45% from the previous year [4][5] Group 3 - Vipshop's Vice President Feng Jialu is under investigation for personal economic issues, with the company maintaining normal business operations [6] - The company has a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption, and Feng has been with Vipshop since 2013 [6] Group 4 - Dong Fang is set to be appointed as the president of Zhuhai Wealth Management, with prior experience as the deputy general manager of the company [6] - Zhuhai Wealth Management currently manages 2.47 trillion yuan in products, leading among 31 bank wealth management subsidiaries [6]

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：需求淡季，估值偏低，短期不追空 PX 供应继续收缩，PX单边反弹。上周的周报中，由于对中东地缘冲突结束的迅速程度才出现误判，单边价格PX跟随原油价格大幅回落，同时月差 同步走弱。多PX空SC。就供需层面而言，PX7月份继续维持紧平衡的去库格局，其中下周浙石化、福海创、天津石化均有检修可能，海外韩国 装置这存在提负荷计划，总体亚洲开工率降进一步下降。需求方面，PTA装置下周供应稳中有升，东营威联计划检修、恒力大连重启，逸盛新 材料计划提负荷，整体负荷回升1-2%。PX整体格局偏紧。另外原油价格回落速度较为可观，但成品油消费旺季叠加低库存，近端下探空间有 限，因此单边价格PX预计偏强，月差仍以正套为主。 PTA 成本有支撑，但是月差有压力，单边震荡略偏强。多PTA空MEG止盈。 7月份聚酯短纤长丝工厂预计 ...

Core Insights - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in international expansion and explore collaborative transformation paths in the context of global industrial chain restructuring [1] Group 1: Market Insights - The Middle East is identified as a popular region for Chinese enterprises to expand, characterized by significant market diversity and varying economic fundamentals across countries [2] - For instance, Turkey's annual deposit interest rate is around 50%, reflecting substantial currency depreciation over the past three years [2] - The presence of nearly 300,000 Chinese individuals in Dubai compared to only about 1,500 Chinese enterprises in Turkey indicates differing levels of market opportunity [2] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Companies are encouraged to shift their perspective on "going global" from merely exporting products to positioning themselves as global companies, with China being just one part of the global market [2] - Emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa should be included in the strategic landscape for global expansion [2] Group 3: Operational Considerations - It is normal for companies to not turn a profit in the first year of international expansion due to the need for localization and adaptation to unfamiliar markets [2] - Companies should prepare for a potential 20% increase in operational costs in the first year, even in culturally similar regions like Southeast Asia, and aim to control costs to match domestic levels within three years [2] Group 4: Industry Trends - Two key patterns in China's industrial overseas expansion are identified: industry clusters going abroad and a phased approach to market entry [3] - The evolution of the ASEAN class at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business illustrates the stages of overseas expansion, from passive capacity transfer to active risk diversification and brand development [5] Group 5: Middle East Market Dynamics - Companies should consider the significant influence of the U.S. and Western countries in the Middle East, as well as the strengthening ties between China and the region [5] - Middle Eastern countries are pursuing economic diversification away from energy dependence, presenting long-term opportunities in sectors like digital economy and green energy [5] - The high proportion of young people in the Middle East indicates a growing consumer market, which is an important factor for companies to monitor [5]

编者按：随着美国对华发起贸易战，中国国内部分产业链转移到东南亚，中国与东盟之间的经济关系日渐紧密。海关数据显示，中国对东盟连续 9年进出口保持增长，连续5年互为第一大贸易伙伴。可以说，中国与东盟充分发挥各自的资源优势、产业结构优势，贸易互补不断增强，带动了 上下游产品的进出口增长。 然而，伴随着双边贸易的高速增长，南海争端和美国对等关税等诸多挑战也同时困扰着中国与东盟。如何实现中国-东盟关系的新突破，已成为 双方政策制定的核心议题。在2025年6月举行的"全球南方与东南亚"学术会议上，观察者网和菲律宾中国研究会会长、亚太进步基金会研究员卢 西奥·布兰科·皮特洛三世，就中菲关系、中国-东盟关系的前景展开对话。 此外，菲律宾经历了不同的领导层更迭，每六年其外交政策、对华关系处理以及南海问题的应对策略都会出现摇摆。但共识在于，中国仍是菲律宾极为重要 的贸易伙伴，且应当以更妥善的方式处理与南海相关的议题。 卢西奥·皮特罗三世接受采访 观察者网：中菲之间的紧张态势在过去几年不断升级，这是为什么？如您所知，由于中美关系紧张，东盟的抉择正变得愈发艰难，而双向押注的对冲策略似 乎已经过时。这是否在经济上产生了反效果？ 卢西奥 ...