Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The dairy price is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 after a prolonged adjustment cycle lasting over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses [6][60] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of raw milk prices influenced by production capacity, demand, and imports, with significant historical fluctuations noted [6][19] - The report emphasizes the correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, suggesting that stock prices may react ahead of milk prices during cyclical changes [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycle - The raw milk price is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical pattern [6][19] - The dairy industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle for dairy cows, leading to delayed responses in production capacity adjustments [18][19] - Historical data shows three downward cycles and two upward cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with significant events impacting demand and prices [19][26] 2. 2025 Outlook - The industry is currently facing severe losses, with a continued trend of dairy cow capacity reduction expected [60][62] - Policy support is anticipated to improve dairy product demand, contributing to a gradual stabilization of milk prices in the latter half of 2025 [60][64] - The report forecasts that as the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices may stabilize, benefiting upstream dairy companies [60][62] 3. Correlation Between Milk Prices and Dairy Company Stocks - The report notes a high correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, indicating that stock prices may respond more quickly to changes in market conditions [6][35] - The performance of downstream dairy companies is also influenced by their product structure and market expectations, which can affect their stock prices during different price cycles [6][35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy, as well as major dairy enterprises like Yili and New Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the stabilization of milk prices [6][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - In April 2025, pig prices experienced fluctuations, with the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 39.16 CNY/kg, 15.20 CNY/kg, and 26.07 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of 5.15%, -1.00%, and -1.19% [3][18]. - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, leading to sufficient pig supply in April, while low feed costs have encouraged farmers to increase the weight of pigs [21]. - Demand has been supported by increased secondary fattening and pre-holiday stocking activities, contributing to price stability [21]. - The slaughtering rate for pigs rose by 1.42 percentage points to 27.53% in April, indicating smooth procurement for slaughtering enterprises [21]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows slightly increased, resulting in a sufficient supply of pigs for slaughter in April [21]. - The average price of live pigs remained stable around 15 CNY/kg during the May Day holiday, with a national average of 14.98 CNY/kg by May 15 [3][18]. Price Trends - The average sales prices for major companies in April were as follows: Muyuan Foods at 14.66 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 14.92 CNY/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 14.44 CNY/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.70 CNY/kg, with slight month-on-month changes [34][39]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased, with Muyuan Foods at 130.71 kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 117.03 kg, Zhengbang Technology at 132.78 kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 97.10 kg [39][45]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that high-quality production capacity will maintain profitability in 2025, with leading companies expected to experience valuation recovery [24][30]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies with cost advantages and high performance, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Tian Kang Biological, and Shennong Group [30]. Cost Analysis - The latest breeding costs for major companies in April 2025 are as follows: Muyuan Foods at 12.40 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 12.60 CNY/kg, and Shennong Group at 12.30 CNY/kg, indicating a competitive cost structure among leading firms [49][50].

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：4 月猪价震荡，企 业出栏体重上行 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：4 月生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格表现偏强。农业农村部监测数据 显示，2025 年 4 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 39.16 元/公斤、15.20 元/公 斤和 26.07 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 5.15%、-1.00%和-1.19%。4 月猪价围 绕 15 元/公斤窄幅震荡，五一期间全国生猪价格以稳为主，局地小幅震荡，截 止 5 月 15 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.98 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年年中能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 4 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠加 饲料成本低位，养殖压栏增重意愿增强，生猪体重整体增长。需求端：4 月二 次育肥补栏增加，截留标猪货源；下旬五一备货积极性提升，共同对猪价形成 支撑。4 月生猪屠宰开工率回升 1.42 个百分点至 27.53%，屠宰企业收购顺畅。 3 月白毛比价 1.37，4 月毛白价差 4.33 元/公斤，终端消费底部小幅回升。供 给端出栏节奏与二育对短期价格影响更大。 建议持续关注大宗原料走势。5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic beef market supply is expected to tighten marginally by 2025 due to capacity reduction and rising import prices, indicating a potential upward turning point for the industry, with beef prices having bottomed out and starting to recover [1] - The beef farming cycle is longer compared to dairy farming, with beef cattle taking 38 months from conception to market, while dairy cattle take at least 2 years from calf to lactation, leading to slower recovery in supply after capacity reduction [1] - The domestic beef and milk production has shown significant growth post-2018, driven by rapid consumption increase and industry capacity expansion, although both still require imports to supplement supply [2] Group 2 - The beef and dairy industries in China exhibit clear cyclical patterns, influenced significantly by supply and demand factors, with beef experiencing three cycles of approximately 7 years and dairy about 4-6 years [3] - Following a decline in prices due to slowed consumption growth and expanded industry capacity since 2022, the beef and milk prices have dropped, with beef industry experiencing 18 months of losses and a 4.4% year-on-year decline in stock by the end of 2024 [4] - The dairy sector has faced 16 months of continuous losses, with a 2.8% year-on-year decline in milk production expected in 2024, but a potential recovery in raw milk prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 if demand improves [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][37] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a comprehensive rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 0.99%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The pig price is currently operating at a slight profit, with production capacity reduction slowing down. The average price of live pigs as of May 9 is 14.73 CNY/kg, showing minor fluctuations [6][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable chick prices, with a focus on domestic breeding due to uncertainties in overseas imports [28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the agricultural sector is 2606.49, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's index has increased by 0.99%, while the broader market indices like the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have risen by 2.00% and 1.92%, respectively [13][14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Industry - The average price of live pigs has remained stable between 14.6 and 14.9 CNY/kg since April, with a slight upward shift due to increased second-time fattening [6][17] - As of May 9, self-breeding pig farmers are earning approximately 84 CNY per head, while those purchasing piglets are making about 58 CNY [18][19] - The breeding stock has shown a slight increase, with April's data indicating a 0.41% rise in breeding sows [19][20] White Feather Chicken - As of May 9, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 3.10 CNY per chick, with an average profit of 0.2 CNY per chick [28] - The market is currently characterized by a significant disparity, with high chick prices causing resistance among farmers due to rising feed costs [28] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while corn prices have increased to 2306 CNY/ton, reflecting a mixed trend in crop prices [32][35]

Group 1 - Lithium prices have dropped to 63,000 yuan/ton, falling below the cost line for many integrated lithium extraction companies, leading to a challenging operating environment for some firms [1][4] - In Q1 2025, 14 out of 21 listed lithium mining companies in A-shares reported profits, while 7 incurred losses, indicating a divergence in performance within the sector [1][2] - The overall revenue of listed lithium mining companies in Q1 2025 reached 43.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, while net profit surged by 1340.4% to 3.343 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - Major companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium showed significant performance divergence, with Ganfeng reporting a revenue decline of 25.43% to 3.772 billion yuan and a net loss of 356 million yuan, while Tianqi turned a profit of 104 million yuan after a loss of 3.897 billion yuan in the previous year [2][3] - The lithium salt production capacity continues to grow, with domestic production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride increasing by 35.35%, 29.54%, and 37.14% respectively in 2024 [4][5] - Despite the price drop, many companies have not reduced production capacity; for instance, Ganfeng Lithium and Yahua Group increased their lithium carbonate production by approximately 24% and 10% respectively [5][6] Group 3 - The demand side faces challenges, as the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has not increased significantly, leading to uncertainty in achieving expected growth for the year [6] - The overall market for lithium carbonate remains weak, with supply-demand imbalances persisting unless significant production cuts occur [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [50] Core Insights - The report indicates that the breeding capacity of sows is expected to continue to decrease, with further potential for reduction in the future. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, presenting opportunities for low-position investments based on capacity reduction expectations [50] - In the poultry farming sector, the impact of avian influenza has limited the introduction of breeding stock for white feather chickens, leading to expectations of capacity reduction. Attention is drawn to leading companies in high-quality white feather chicken farming, while yellow feather chicken farming is expected to see profit improvements due to declining breeding costs [50] - In the feed sector, raw material cost pressures are expected to ease, and the concentration of leading companies is likely to continue to increase [50] - In the seed industry, trade frictions highlight food security concerns, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is progressing, with a focus on leading companies with research and development advantages [50] - The domestic pet market is expanding rapidly, with a focus on leading companies that cater to domestic demand [50] Industry Performance Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 0.32% from April 25 to May 8, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.49 percentage points [16] - Among the sub-sectors, only feed and breeding recorded negative returns, down 0.08% and 1.02% respectively, while animal health, fishery, planting, and agricultural product processing saw positive returns of 5%, 2.19%, 2.08%, and 2% respectively [17][18] - Approximately 72% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [18] - As of May 8, 2025, the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio of the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index was about 2.58 times, slightly recovering over the past two weeks, and remains at 57.2% of the historical valuation center since 2006, indicating a historical low [22] Key Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased slightly from 14.99 yuan/kg to 14.90 yuan/kg between April 25 and May 8, 2025. The breeding sow inventory reached 40.39 million heads at the end of March 2025, a decrease of 0.66% month-on-month but an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a normal holding level of 103.6% [26] - **Cost**: As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of corn was 2360.98 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while the spot price of soybean meal was 3300 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease [28] - **Profitability**: As of May 9, 2025, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, slightly down from the previous week, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, slightly up from the previous week [31] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks in major production areas was 2.91 yuan/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 7.45 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease, with a profit of -0.1 yuan/chick [33][36] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price of crucian carp was 20.68 yuan/kg, and for carp, it was 14.29 yuan/kg, remaining stable over the past two weeks [38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

Group 1 - The company is a rare quality beef listed entity with stable beef and lamb resources from New Zealand [1] - The company was formerly known as Shanghai Meilin Zhengguanghe Co., Ltd., and is a core meat industry enterprise under Bright Food Group, with various well-known brands [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 8.46% year-on-year to 6.154 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 66.82% to 166 million yuan, benefiting from the rising beef prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a projected turning point in supply expected in 2025 [2] - In January 2025, beef cattle slaughter increased by 6% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, while the breeding stock decreased by 22% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in beef prices starting in 2025, with a potential peak price increase of 80% compared to the bottom price at the end of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company's beef business is expected to benefit from the price reversal, with a cautious estimate of an increase in net profit by approximately 520 million yuan if prices rise by 22% from the bottom [3] - The subsidiary Silver Fern Farms has a production volume of 350,000 to 400,000 tons of beef and lamb annually, accounting for 30% of New Zealand's total output, primarily exporting to China and the U.S. [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 496 million, 601 million, and 705 million yuan for 2025-2027, with annual profit growth rates of 129.7%, 21.1%, and 17.3% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [6] Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry achieved total revenue of 12,460.8 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, but net profit attributable to shareholders was 483.8 billion, marking a return to profitability [14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported total revenue of 2,917.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with net profit of 134.0 billion, also returning to profitability [17] - The improvement in profitability is primarily attributed to the recovery in pig prices and a decrease in breeding costs [14][17] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2024, the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry saw a total revenue of 12,460.8 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 483.8 billion, indicating a return to profitability [14] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a total revenue of 2,917.0 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year, with net profit reaching 134.0 billion, also indicating a return to profitability [17] Subsector Performance Swine Breeding Sector - In 2024, the SW swine breeding sector achieved total revenue of 3,880.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with net profit of 306.8 billion, marking a return to profitability [19] - Q1 2025 saw total revenue of 961.8 billion, a 20.0% year-on-year increase, with net profit of 76.2 billion, also returning to profitability [22] - The recovery in profitability is driven by higher average pig prices and lower breeding costs [20][28] Poultry Breeding Sector - The SW poultry breeding sector reported total revenue of 729.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with net profit soaring to 29.5 billion, a 2095% increase [30] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 160.1 billion, up 1.1% year-on-year, with net profit of 3.8 billion, a 155.4% increase [31] - The growth in revenue and net profit is attributed to increased sales volume and reduced raw material costs [33] Feed Sector - The SW feed sector achieved total revenue of 2,624.3 billion in 2024, down 8.3%, but net profit was 79.2 billion, returning to profitability [40] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 610.8 billion, a 10.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 21.4 billion, a 675.8% increase [41] - The significant increase in net profit is due to improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [41][47] Animal Health Sector - The SW animal health sector reported total revenue of 180.3 billion in 2024, a 6.5% increase, but net profit fell to 6.3 billion, a 61% decrease [49] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 46.7 billion, a 23.9% increase, with net profit of 5.1 billion, a 32.8% increase [50] - The recovery in Q1 2025 is attributed to increased sales and reduced expense ratios [52] Planting Sector - The SW planting sector achieved total revenue of 1,039.7 billion in 2024, a 10.3% increase, but net profit fell to 19.4 billion, a 45.8% decrease [59] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 218.6 billion, a 14.4% increase, with net profit of 8.0 billion, a 12.2% decrease [62] - The decline in net profit is primarily due to lower gross margins and decreased non-operating income [62]