投资者静待美通胀数据，标普500指数勉强收涨；比特币新高后回落；原油跌3%。 中国6月社融增量4.2万亿元，新增人民币贷款2.24万亿元，M2-M1剪刀差缩小。 中国6月按美元计出口同比增长5.8%，进口增长1.1%；稀土出口创2009年来最高，铁矿石进口创 年内新高，钢铁二季度出口创纪录。 欧盟准备对720亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税。 特朗普以"严厉"关税威胁俄罗斯50天内达成俄乌协议，威胁将对俄罗斯征收100%关税。 下一代擎天柱要来了？马斯克：年底会有"史诗级震撼"的演示。 Meta将投数千亿美元建全球最大数据中心，正讨论是否放弃开源、转向闭源。 提醒：中国周二将公布GDP等重磅数据，美国周二将公布6月CPI数据。 ...

海关总署副署长王令浚7月14日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，上半年，我国外贸进出口规模站稳 20万亿元的台阶，创历史同期新高。 据海关统计，今年上半年我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元人民币，同比增长2.9%。其中，出口13万亿 元，增长7.2%，进口8.79万亿元，下降2.7%。 "总的看，今年上半年我国外贸顶压前行，规模稳中有增、质量优中有升，成绩实属不易。但也要看 到，全球单边主义、保护主义上升，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性增加，下半年我国外贸稳增 长仍需要付出艰苦努力。"王令浚说。 连续7个季度同比增长 ● 本报记者 王舒嫄 （上接A01版） 民营企业进出口增速领先 "今年以来，一系列促进民营企业发展的重点政策措施，极大增强了企业发展信心。在外贸领域，民营 企业高质量发展表现可圈可点。"王令浚说。 海关总署数据显示，上半年，民营企业进出口12.48万亿元，同比增长7.3%，占我国外贸的比重达到了 57.3%，较去年同期提升了2.3个百分点，其中出口、进口均增长。截至今年二季度，我国民营企业进出 口已连续21个季度同比增长，增速持续领先。"特别是今年以来，民营企业克服外部环境带来的不利影 响，上 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning from being a net importer of propylene to reducing its import dependency due to expanding domestic production capacity, with imports expected to reach their lowest levels in recent years by 2024 [1] Group 1: Import and Export Dynamics - Propylene imports in China were stable at around 3 million tons from 2016 to 2019, with an import dependency of approximately 10% [1] - By 2024, propylene imports are projected to decline to 2.02 million tons, resulting in an import dependency of about 3.7% [1] - The majority of propylene imports come from South Korea (73.7%) and Japan (18.5%), accounting for a combined total of 92.3% of imports [1] - Propylene exports from China are minimal and often occur under conditions of domestic market oversupply [1] - In 2021, propylene exports surged due to price disparities caused by external factors in Europe and the U.S., with significant exports to South America and Asia [1] Group 2: Sales Models and Trade Structure - Propylene sales are conducted through long-term contracts and spot sales, with long-term contracts typically accounting for about 50% of trade [2] - The spot market for propylene is active, with approximately 60% of purchases made directly from producers and 40% involving traders [2] - As of 2024, there are nearly 50 propylene traders in China, with around 20 large traders selling over 20,000 tons annually [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Patterns - Propylene production and consumption are widespread in China, with major production and consumption occurring in North and East China [3] - Shandong and Zhejiang are the largest provinces for both production and consumption of propylene, with Shandong facing a significant demand gap [3] - The South China region relies on imports and East China for propylene supply due to consumption gaps [3] - Most large propylene producers in China are integrated with downstream production facilities, leading to a situation where the commercial volume of propylene is less than the total production [3]

7月14日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会介绍2025年上半年进出口情况，海关总署相关负责人出席 并回应了大宗商品贸易、下半年外贸形势、外资企业表现、中美经贸关系等市场关注话题。 海关总署副署长王令浚在会上介绍，今年以来，我国外贸在复杂环境下顶住压力、保持动力、展现活 力。据海关统计，今年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元，同比增长2.9%，站稳20万亿元台 阶，创历史同期新高。其中，出口13万亿元，增长7.2%；进口8.79万亿元，下降2.7%。 对于今年来备受关注的中美贸易情况，王令浚回应表示，上半年，我国对美国进出口总值2.08万亿元， 同比下降9.3%。其中，出口1.55万亿元，下降9.9%，进口5303.5亿元，下降7.7%。受美国所谓"对等关 税"影响，中美贸易由第一季度同比增长转为第二季度同比下降，降幅达到了20.8%。 回顾今年上半年我国外贸表现，建信期货宏观分析师冯泽仁在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，我国外贸 在复杂多变的全球经济环境中展现出韧性，总体呈现稳健增长态势。其中，上半年出口规模首次突破13 万亿元，同比增长7.2%，成为拉动外贸增长的核心因素；同时，上半年绿色低碳产品占出口 ...

Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 2.7% [1] - In June alone, the import and export scale grew by 5.2% year-on-year to 3.85 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest monthly trade volume in history [1] Group 2: High-tech Product Exports - High-tech product exports increased by 9.2% in the first half of the year, maintaining growth for nine consecutive months [1] - Key high-tech exports included high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment, all exceeding 20% growth, while instrument exports rose by 14.7% [1] - The proportion of self-owned brands in high-tech products reached 32.4%, up by 1.2 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Group 3: Market Adaptation and Innovation - More enterprises are adapting to international market demands by offering differentiated and customized products, such as solar-powered phones for areas with power shortages [2] - The popularity of Chinese products is also enhanced by "soft power," exemplified by the global success of "Labubu," which has increased the appeal of Chinese toys in international markets [2] - In the first four months, exports of dolls and animal toys exceeded 10 billion yuan, reaching 13.31 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.6% [2] Group 4: Trade Relations and Challenges - China's trade with the U.S. saw a total value of 2.08 trillion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with exports down by 9.9% and imports down by 7.7% [3] - The decline in trade with the U.S. was influenced by "reciprocal tariffs," with a significant drop of 20.8% in the second quarter [3] - Recent trade talks in Geneva and London have shown positive progress, with June's trade value rebounding from May's figures, indicating a narrowing of the year-on-year decline [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2 - China's total goods trade in the first half of 2025 was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] - In June 2025, the monthly trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports of 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [4] Group 3 - China Salt Chemical Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 5.998 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 88.04% to 52.71 million yuan [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [11] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit growth of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [12] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [21]

Export Data - In June, exports (in USD) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[7] - The rise in exports was primarily due to a shift in the "export grabbing" focus from emerging markets to the United States[2] - Exports to the US surged by 18.4% compared to a decline of 16.0% in the previous month, indicating a significant recovery[2] Import Data - Imports (in USD) rose by 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected -0.6% and the previous value of -3.4%[7] - The increase in imports was mainly driven by a rebound in bulk commodity imports, including iron ore (+12.4% to 8.5%) and crude oil (+8.2% to 7.4%)[5] Market Trends - The "export grabbing" phenomenon towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while the trend towards the US is gaining momentum[2] - The export growth to emerging markets, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, with exports to Latin America dropping by 4.5 percentage points to -2.0%[2] - The export of midstream manufacturing goods to emerging economies decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.7%[3] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the US, but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion[3] - Key indicators for future export performance include a continued rise in processing trade imports and high prices for Yiwu small commodities[3]

Core Viewpoint - June export data shows strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, exceeding expectations and remaining consistent with the cumulative growth of 6.0% over the previous five months, indicating no signs of slowdown as of June [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - The strong performance in June is likely attributed to the "tariff easing effect," where the US has removed 91% of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and suspended 24% of tariffs for 90 days as of May 14, 2025 [1][5][6] - The US manufacturing PMI for imports showed a recovery from a low of 39.9 in May to 47.4 in June, aligning with improved export growth in China and South Korea [6][7] - Exports to the EU acted as a stabilizer, while ASEAN and Africa served as accelerators, with exports to the US declining at a slower rate in June compared to April and May [2][7] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - In April, exports to the US saw a significant drop of -21%, but exports to Europe were slightly better than the overall average, while exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America maintained high growth rates of around 20% [2][7] - By June, exports to the US decreased by -16.1%, while exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, and exports to ASEAN and Africa continued to show strong growth [8] Group 3: Product Categories - High-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits are leading China's export growth, with automotive and ship exports growing at 23.1% and 23.6% respectively [3][8] - Labor-intensive products continue to show low growth, with textiles, bags, and clothing combined showing a -1.0% year-on-year growth, while toys saw a temporary spike of 8.1% due to tariff easing [3][8] - Electronic products displayed a mixed trend, with integrated circuits growing at 24.2%, while mobile phones and data processing equipment continued to decline [3][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The mid-term report suggests potential export slowdown due to expected economic deceleration in Europe and the US, as well as stricter origin rules in Southeast Asia [4][10] - Projections for the third quarter indicate a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.98%, while the fourth quarter may see a decline to around 2.96%, leading to an overall growth of about 4.43% for the second half of the year [4][11] - Recent credit and social financing data for June also showed positive trends, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, indicating supportive conditions for market risk appetite [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while "export grabbing" towards the United States is beginning to take effect [2][7][55] Export Data Analysis - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage point from May, driven by a shift in the main subjects of "export grabbing" [2][7][55] - Exports to emerging countries, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, while exports to the United States saw a significant rebound of 18.4% [2][5][55] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was primarily in consumer electronics and furniture, reflecting a resurgence in orders from the U.S. following negotiations in mid-May [2][13][55] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the U.S., but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion [3][25][26][56] - The necessity for "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is expected to decrease as the tariff suspension period ends [3][25][26] Regular Tracking of Exports and Imports - Consumer goods exports, including consumer electronics and real estate chain products, showed an upward trend in June [4][29][57] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited mixed growth, with significant declines in some categories like shipbuilding and automotive parts, while fertilizers saw a notable increase [4][32][57] - Imports also rebounded in June, primarily driven by an increase in bulk commodity imports, indicating a recovery in domestic investment demand [5][44][58]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月14日，海关公布6月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比5.8%、预期3.6%、前值4.8%；进口 （美元计价）同比1.1%、预期-0.6%、前值-3.4%。 核心观点：对新兴国家"抢出口"接近结束，对美国"抢出口"开始发酵 然而，此前通过新兴国家"抢出口"的现象仍继续退坡。 从四大类出口商品来看，此前主要面向新兴经济 体出口的中游制造类商品（-0.6pct至5.7%）于本月继续下滑。尽管肥料（+63.7pct至59.3%）的出口回升 明显，但其规模较小；规模较大的集成电路（-9.2pct至24.2%）等增速明显回落，进一步验证了我国对新 兴国家的"抢出口"现象持续退坡。 展望未来，7月我国出口有望因对美"抢出口"延续而维持韧性，但"抢出口"或在8月结束，届时出口将面 临需求透支带来的负面影响。 新兴国家对等关税暂停期将结束，7 月"抢转口"必要性下降。但对美"抢出 口"有望接续，两个指标可做参考：一是通常领先出口一个月的加工贸易进口同比在6 月继续回升；二是 义乌小商品价格仍维持高位。 常规跟踪：出口、进口均 ...