Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant volatility observed in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [3][4][7]. Precious Metals - Silver futures experienced a drastic drop, with SHFE silver contracts falling by 15%, while gold also saw a decline of over 5% at one point during the trading session [15][31]. - The recent sell-off in precious metals is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and increased trading costs due to margin hikes (gold to 9%, silver to 18%) [7][23]. - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment remains bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tightening stance to control inflation, which diminishes support for precious metal prices [31][30]. Coal and Coke - The main contract for coking coal fell by 3.68% to 1138.5 yuan/ton, while coke prices decreased by 2.64% to 1698.5 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand and ongoing inventory accumulation at steel mills [16][17]. - The market is expected to continue facing weak demand post-holiday, with a focus on inventory digestion rather than new purchases [32][17]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, with WTI and Brent crude both dropping over 3% recently [33][34]. - The SC crude oil contract showed relative resilience, closing down only 0.37% at 465.4 yuan/barrel, despite initial larger declines [33][34]. - Market analysts note that while geopolitical risks remain, concerns about direct military conflict in the Middle East have eased, leading to a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting oil prices [34][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short-term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish trend with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and other regions has a significant impact on the energy market, causing fluctuations in oil prices and affecting the supply and demand patterns of various energy products [3][4][5] - The global oil market is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply under the influence of multiple factors [3] - Different energy products have different market trends. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong, low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and asphalt prices are expected to continue to rise [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, the crude oil market was affected by the alternating tension and relaxation of the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the oil price maintained a volatile trend. The main contract of SC crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.6% (-2.9 yuan/barrel) compared with last Friday's closing price [3] - The near-month contract premium has dropped more significantly than the far-month contract. The market's concern about a direct military conflict in the Middle East and the resulting interruption of crude oil supply has temporarily eased [3] - Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on crude oil prices. The global oil market still has significant inventory accumulation pressure, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply [3] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitics is the current main contradiction. Due to the high uncertainty of future geopolitical evolution and the structural irreplaceability of high-sulfur resources in the Middle East for the Asian market, the price of high-sulfur fuel oil continues to be supported [4] - The spot price difference remains strong, indicating a tight supply-demand pattern in the market. This is mainly due to the seasonal demand for marine fuel, the replacement procurement of Venezuelan raw materials by domestic refineries, and the decrease in Middle East arrivals [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue its strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil is under greater pressure. On the one hand, there are continuous problems with overseas refinery equipment; on the other hand, arbitrage cargoes from the West are expected to arrive one after another, bringing marginal supply increments [4] - With the arrival of the shipping off-season around the Spring Festival, the demand support is expected to weaken, and the low-sulfur fuel oil market is under overall pressure [4] Asphalt - Some local refineries in Shandong have stopped production, and the main refineries in the southern region maintain intermittent production. The production schedule in February has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the supply pressure is limited [5] - As of the end of January, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises was 4.9%, which was the first time the cumulative year-on-year change turned positive since the beginning of the year, indicating an improvement in consumption performance year-on-year [5] - A domestic chemical company bid for Canadian Cold Lake crude oil as a substitute for Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel compared with Brent crude oil. It is expected that refineries will face an increase in the cost of substitute raw materials after the second quarter, and the futures contracts for relevant months have relatively high increases [5] - The asphalt price continues to show a strong trend, and the cracking spread is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [5]

阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-6 沥青周度报告 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 Ø 美伊释放积极言论：当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望"能够达成协议"。当天 早些时候，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。 Ø 美军在阿拉伯海域击落伊朗无人机：据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月3日，一名美国官员表示，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落了一架接 近"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰的伊朗无人机。伊朗方面一名消息人士表示，伊方一架无人机当天在公海执行常规合法侦察任 务过程中失联，但已成功传回其拍摄的图片。 Ø 美伊谈判一度取消：当地时间2月4日，有伊朗官方消息人士称，原定于6日在阿曼举行的伊美谈判已经取消。该消息人士表示， 取消会谈的原因是美方对会谈施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会谈地点的问题。 Ø 美伊于2月6日在阿曼首都谈判：当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判 将于6日上午10点左右在阿曼首都 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on February 6, with the three major indices showing a downward trend [2] - The oil and gas sector saw significant gains, with Shouhua Gas rising over 10%, and companies like Zhun Oil and Intercontinental Oil reaching their daily limit [2] - The geopolitical situation in Iran and Russia, along with OPEC+ production expectations for the second quarter, are key factors influencing the oil market in February [2] Group 2 - The U.S. State Department issued a security warning regarding Iran, advising American citizens to leave the country and prepare for potential emergencies [2] - Citic Futures highlighted that the geopolitical premium remains in the oil market, with short-term focus on U.S.-Iran negotiations and India's oil purchases from Russia [2] - The outlook for oil prices suggests a volatile trend, with a current oversupply in the market but frequent disruptions in supply expectations due to geopolitical tensions [2]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-6 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | （1）沙特降低对亚洲买家的原油价格。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | （2）美伊于2月6日在阿曼首都开展谈判。 | | | （3）乌克兰与俄罗斯在阿布扎比的双方会谈未取得实质性进展。 | 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 重点数据 （1）美国至1月30日当周EIA原油库存 -345.5万桶，预期48.9万桶，前值-229.5万桶。 （2）美国至1月30日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.3万桶，前值-27.8万桶。 （3）美国至1月30日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 21.4万桶，前值51.5万桶。 主要观点 本周原油市场在地缘政治与市场情绪的双重影响下缺乏明确方向性驱动，整体呈现宽幅震荡格局。一方面，地缘 局势不确定性加剧油价波动，周初美国总统特朗普表示希望与伊朗达成协议，导致地缘风险溢价快速回落，随后美军 在阿拉伯海域击落伊朗无人机，再度引发市场对地缘紧张局势升温的担忧，对油价形成支撑。 ...

在中东地缘局势的扰动下，短期油价上行风险并未完全解除。中长期来看，美伊冲突结束后，供大 于求的格局将推动原油价格弱势下行。 2月6日，伊朗与美国官员于阿曼首都马斯喀特举行核问题谈判，伊朗外长阿拉格齐和美国总统特使 威特科夫率团参加。 这场备受关注的会谈在最终敲定前经历数次反转，导致国际油价在短短几天内出现剧烈波动。 在美伊军事对峙的阴影下，外交谈判的一举一动都牵动着大宗商品市场的神经。 谈判进程波折不断 美伊谈判的地点确定过程充满戏剧性。最初，美方计划与伊方2月6日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行会 谈，周边相关国家也将作为观察员列席。 按照原定安排，美国和伊朗将先进行双边会谈，随后再对伊朗的弹道导弹、军事代理人等问题进行 多边讨论。 然而，2月3日情况突变。伊朗方面提出要求，希望将谈判地点改到阿曼，并且只进行双边会谈，以 确保谈判仅聚焦于核问题。 当地时间2月4日，阿拉格齐在社交媒体上发文称，谈判将于6日上午10点左右在阿曼首都马斯喀特 举行，并对阿曼为此次谈判所做的一切必要安排表示感谢。 分析人士指出，虽然伊美在谈判地点上达成一致，但谈判议题范围仍存在根本分歧。 伊朗坚持谈判范围应限于核问题，而美国国务卿鲁比奥表示 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel本周统计523座炼焦煤样本矿山数 据，原煤日产192.5万吨，环比减少5.3万吨。其中山西原煤日 产111.2万吨，环比减少4.5万吨。新增停产煤矿27座，涉及产 能2520万吨。新增复产煤矿1座，产能60万吨。评：整体来看， 焦煤基本面无明显变化，相对利好或有三方面：其一是下游冬 储仍在进行，对焦煤现货带来一定支撑；其二是春节临近，煤 矿有提前停产放假的预期；其三是中东局势紧张，原油地缘溢 价带动能源类商品走强。不过，缺乏国内政策面和焦煤基本面 支撑，焦煤期货依然缺乏持续上涨的动能，预计近期价格仍将 维持区间运行。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认 为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高 位。评：美联储官员讲话引发市场对美联储暂不降息的预期， 黄金再度下跌。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领的代表团抵达阿曼 首都马斯喀特，将出席与美国代表团举行的核问题谈判。地缘 扰动或有所缓解，黄金支持力量减弱。关注今晚非农数据，贵 金属市场波动或进一步加剧，黄金短期偏空，中期依然看高位 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the Panama Canal port controversy, where the Chinese government has initiated countermeasures against Panama's Supreme Court ruling that revoked the port concession rights of a Hong Kong company, impacting China-Panama relations [1][3] - The Chinese government has requested state-owned enterprises to suspend negotiations on new projects with Panama, potentially jeopardizing billions of dollars in investments [3] - China's customs have intensified inspections on imports from Panama, signaling dissatisfaction and warning of consequences if Panama continues to confront China [3] Group 2 - The situation is influenced by external forces, particularly the U.S., which had anticipated the Supreme Court's decision and indicated plans for Maersk to take over the port, revealing intentions to diminish China's influence in Latin America [5] - The relationship between the Panama government and the U.S. is viewed as a short-term strategy that could lead to significant risks if not managed carefully [5] - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics highlight that Panama's decisions are not merely commercial disputes but involve deeper geopolitical relationships, testing the spirit of national contracts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, reflecting market expectations amid complex geopolitical and economic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB announced that the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively [1]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the current monetary policy stance is well-positioned to address potential future shocks [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The eurozone's inflation rate fell to 1.7% in January, below the ECB's medium-term target of 2% [2]. - Lagarde noted that the recent decline in inflation is primarily due to fluctuations in energy prices, while core inflation remains stable at 2.2% [2]. - Some market analysts express caution regarding inflation trends, predicting that core inflation may drop below 2% in the second half of the year, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Implications - The strengthening euro is seen as a significant factor affecting the economic outlook, as it may suppress import inflation but weaken export competitiveness [3]. - The euro recently surpassed the 1.20 mark against the dollar, currently fluctuating at relatively high levels [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the strong euro helps contain import inflation, it also raises prices for European exports, adding pressure on already competitive sectors, particularly in Germany [3]. Group 4: Future Policy Considerations - Analysts believe the ECB's decision to maintain rates aims to provide stability amid a turbulent global environment [4]. - The interplay of geopolitical conflicts, changing inflation paths, and exchange rate volatility presents complex challenges for the ECB's future policy decisions [4].