Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits from January to November increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while profits in November alone fell by 13.1% due to weakening production and profit margins[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in December recorded 78.88%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%[1] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, driven primarily by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure[4] - Core PCE inflation in the U.S. rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a marginal increase in inflationary pressures[4] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4549.95 per ounce, while silver prices hit a record high of $79.33, reflecting a strong performance in precious metals markets[1] Market Trends - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2339.2, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 113.6%[1] - The average price of copper increased by 3.65% week-on-week, driven by a combination of weak dollar and improved global demand expectations[3] - The issuance of local government bonds is planned at 580 billion yuan for January 2026, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan issued this year, exceeding the annual quota[3]

下周看点颇多，新年即将到来，美联储将发布12月会议纪要，外界将关注有关未来政策路径讨论的细 节。随着贵金属周五全线爆发，本轮行情能走多远受到越来越多关注。美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基将进行会晤，俄乌局势能否迎来关键转折点或成为短期内油价走势的关键。 欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨0.99%，德国DAX 30指数周涨1.09%，法国CAC 40指数周涨 1.22%。 本周国际市场风云变幻，贵金属市场迎来井喷。美股全线上涨，道指周涨1.20%，纳指周涨1.22%，标 普500指数周涨1.40%。 国际油价结束连续两周下跌，外界关注地缘政治因素。WTI原油近月合约周涨0.39%，报56.74美元/ 桶，布伦特原油近月合约周涨0.28%，报60.64美元/桶。 尽管近期的供应中断推动油价从12月16日的近五年低点反弹，但当前油价仍大概率录得2020年以来最大 年度跌幅。受原油产量攀升引发市场对明年供应过剩的担忧影响，布伦特原油与西得克萨斯中质原油今 年以来的跌幅已分别达到18%和20%。Aegis Hedging宙斯盾对冲基金在周五发布的报告中表示："地缘 政治溢价虽为油价提供了短期支撑，但并未从根 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价上涨后回落。白宫下令美军在未来至少两个月内专注于对委内瑞拉石油的"封锁"，当前美国更 倾向于使用经济手段，而非军事手段向委内瑞拉施压。此外，海湾地区裂痕加深，沙特对也门发动空袭，中东局 势存升级风险。地缘因素推升油价。本周五，因泽连斯基将于周日与特朗普讨论领土问题，市场预期和平协议或 进一步推进，叠加供应过剩担忧加剧，油价快速回落。整体看，当前油价仍围绕地缘与供需博弈。截止 12 月 26 日，WTI 现货收于 56.74 美元，环比+0.59 美元；BRENT 现货收于 63.73 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环比减少。美国产量 1384.3 万桶/天，美国净进口数据环比-27.9%。截至 12 月 23 日当周，美国活跃石油钻机数环 ...

早上好，先来关注下金属市场。 金属板块热门品种暴涨 今天凌晨，现货白银价格站上76美元/盎司，日内涨近6%，年内涨幅扩大至逾160%。COMEX白银期货价格涨逾6%。 现货铂价格延续涨势，盘中涨超10%，创历史新高。现货钯价格盘中同样涨超10%。 内盘方面，沪铜、国际铜期货主力合约涨超3%，分别报101080元/吨、91410元/吨。 内盘方面，沪铜期货主力合约收涨3.33%，报101380元/吨；沪银期货主力合约收涨6.03%，报19204元/千克。 地缘局势方面，当地时间12月26日，据也门安全官员消息，沙特阿拉伯对也门东南部哈德拉毛省南方过渡委员会旗下的军事据点发动了空袭。 此外，当地时间26日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，若俄罗斯总统普京同意为期60天的停火，他将把整个"和平计划"交由乌克兰全民公投决定。泽连斯基指 出，举行公投存在政治、后勤和安全风险，60天是完成筹备工作所需的最短时间。 业内人士认为，贵金属和基本金属价格此轮集体走强，主要受到四方面因素支撑：其一，地缘政治不确定性上升，避险需求显著增强，资金持续流入黄 金、白银、铂等贵金属资产；其二，美元阶段性走弱，削弱了美元资产吸引力，推动资金转向以 ...

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday fell -0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell -0.05%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.08%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) closed -0.07%. The S&P 500 index on Friday edged to a new record high but then fell back and closed the day slightly lower.  Stocks ran out of gas on Friday ahead of the weekend, but the S&P 500 index still closed the week up +1.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 index ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing a rare super cycle in precious metals, driven by a reassessment of the dollar's credibility and real demand from new industrial revolutions such as AI and hydrogen energy [2][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 24, spot gold reached $4500 per ounce, with international silver and platinum increasing over 140% for the year [2][24]. - The demand for precious metals has shifted from traditional safe-haven assets to being driven by monetary credit, geopolitical factors, and green technology [10][34]. Group 2: Banking Sector Adjustments - Major banks like ICBC, CCB, and CITIC are cleaning up personal precious metal accounts that have been inactive, indicating a strategic shift towards focusing on quality clients rather than quantity [3][26]. - This move is not a retreat but a strategic adjustment to enhance service quality, risk control, and long-term trust [27][36]. Group 3: Asset Growth and Competition - By Q3 2025, ICBC led the market with precious metal assets of 385.43 billion yuan, followed by Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, all surpassing 100 billion yuan [29][31]. - The growth in precious metal assets is built on a solid foundation from 2024, with ICBC showing consistent expansion from 254.30 billion yuan in Q1 to 385.43 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [32][33]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may reach $4900 per ounce by 2026, with several financial institutions forecasting gold to potentially hit $5000 per ounce [21][41]. - The competition in the precious metals sector will focus on compliance, customer trust, and long-term strategies, with the true "king of precious metals" being the bank that retains the most engaged and trusting clients after account clean-ups [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's announcement of new tariffs on China's semiconductor industry, effective June 2027, reflects deeper geopolitical and economic considerations amidst global supply chain challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Implications - The new tariffs are framed as a response to China's pursuit of industrial self-sufficiency, which the U.S. claims harms American interests [1]. - The delayed implementation until 2027 suggests a strategic compromise within the U.S. government, indicating uncertainty about the potential economic impact of these tariffs [3]. - The tariffs are perceived as a political maneuver ahead of upcoming midterm elections, showcasing a tough stance to voters while balancing internal economic considerations [3]. Group 2: China’s Response and Strategic Position - China's immediate and strong opposition to the tariffs highlights its shift from a passive to a more assertive role in international trade disputes [3][5]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the historical context of the tariff wars indicate a persistent struggle between the U.S. and China, with both sides maintaining consistent policies despite changes in administration [3][5]. - China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain provides it with significant leverage against U.S. trade pressures, suggesting that the U.S. may be underestimating China's resilience and strategic stability [5]. Group 3: Future Economic Landscape - The evolving U.S.-China relationship and the implementation of tariffs will serve as critical indicators of both countries' strategic approaches in the coming years [7]. - The outcome of this tariff battle will depend on the patience and strategic acumen displayed by both nations, with the potential for significant global economic implications [7]. - The ongoing tensions reflect a broader anxiety within the U.S. regarding China's rise, indicating that the economic competition will be a long-term engagement [5].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘不确定性上升，油价短线反弹。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升， 美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国 | | ★ | | 原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国 | | | | 页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | | ★ | | 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | 低价成交好转，石化库存加速去化，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双 | | L | | 弱，停车比例为 12%，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但 | | | 空头盘整 | 塑料多以油 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：美官员和知情人士称，美国海岸警卫队因专业人手有限，暂时无法对一艘与委内瑞拉有关 的、拒绝接受登船检查的油轮实施扣押行动；俄罗斯外交部发言人表示，俄罗斯认为与美国就乌克兰 问题进行的和平谈判取得了缓慢但稳定的进展；乌克兰扩大了对俄罗斯能源资产的攻击范围，不仅针 对原油炼油厂，还针对管道，以及越来越多的海运石油出口码头和运送俄罗斯供应的影子船队油轮； 中性 2.基差：12月24日，阿曼原油现货价为62.77美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.95美元/桶，基差 16.98元/桶，现货升水期货；偏 ...