每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78420，基差-220，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月24日铜库存减1200至94675吨，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运 行为主. 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited strategic metal reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, coupled with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. Geopolitical tensions and China's export controls on tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have exacerbated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a sustained upward price trend for small metals [12][15][17] - In May 2025, the overall non-ferrous metals sector saw a moderate increase, with precious metals (gold) and strategic small metals (rare earths, tungsten) leading the gains. The geopolitical situation has intensified, causing a decline in risk appetite in international financial markets, which has driven gold prices higher as a traditional safe-haven asset [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas: Supply-Demand Conflicts and Geopolitical Impact - The small metals market is currently hot, with prices rising due to limited reserves and high extraction difficulty. The rapid growth in demand from new energy and military sectors, along with geopolitical tensions, has intensified supply-demand conflicts [12][15] 2. Small Metals Price Increase Cycle and Strategic Resource Valuation - Small metals are experiencing a significant price increase, with tungsten concentrate prices reaching historical highs of 169,000 yuan/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increasing by 57.02%. The main drivers include limited reserves, high extraction costs, and increased demand from various industries [15][17] 3. Market Trends: Macroeconomic Sentiment Recovery and Non-Ferrous Sector Growth - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a recovery in May, with small metals leading the way. The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic recovery [12][46] 4. Policy Changes: Global Policies on Key Mineral Resource Protection and Development - Multiple countries are implementing policies to protect and develop key mineral resources, including the U.S. signing a "mineral agreement" with Ukraine and South Africa launching a critical minerals strategy. China is also taking measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals [13][27] 5. Key Industry and Company Developments - Harmony Gold's acquisition of Macarthur Copper for $1.03 billion and other significant mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector are noted. Companies are using diverse capital strategies to strengthen resource control and optimize capacity [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings as a strategic response to economic and geopolitical pressures, with significant implications for U.S.-China relations and global financial markets [1][6][10] - Since 2022, China has consistently reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings, with a total reduction of $1,732 billion in 2022, $508 billion in 2023, and $573 billion projected for 2024, indicating a long-term trend of decreasing reliance on U.S. debt [1][8] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of April 2025, raising concerns about debt servicing pressures and the risk of default, which could lead to significant fluctuations in bond prices and market rates [3][4] Group 2 - The current U.S. economic landscape is characterized by slowing GDP growth, rising inflation, and increasing unemployment, prompting political pressure for interest rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption [4][10] - The reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China has contributed to market volatility, leading to a sell-off in U.S. equities and heightened fears regarding interest rate changes, despite reassurances from U.S. Treasury officials [6][10] - The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to be challenging, as both sides seek to balance their core interests while addressing complex economic issues, which could significantly impact global economic stability [10]

Group 1: Recent Market Volatility - Global stock markets have shown alternating rises and falls, with accelerated sector rotation since June 2025 [2] - A-shares are fluctuating between 3200-3500 points, with growth stocks like new energy and semiconductors experiencing increased volatility, while defensive sectors like banks and consumer goods remain stable [2] - The Nasdaq index has seen daily fluctuations exceeding 2% due to tech stock earnings reports, with Federal Reserve policy expectations being a focal point [2][3] Group 2: Core Reasons for Market Fluctuations - Uncertainty in global economic recovery is evident, with the U.S. experiencing easing inflation pressures but volatile employment data, leading to debates on the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5] - European economies face recession risks due to fluctuating energy prices and weak manufacturing [5] - China's economic recovery is mixed, with consumer and investment rebounds but ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector affecting market confidence [6][7] Group 3: Policy Adjustments and Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve's June 2025 FOMC meeting signaled a hawkish stance, cooling rate cut expectations and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, which suppresses risk assets [8] - In China, the A-share market is influenced by the "New National Nine Articles," which strengthen dividend requirements for listed companies, putting pressure on some high-valuation growth stocks [9][10] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment - Ongoing disruptions in energy and food supply chains due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are exacerbating global inflation expectations [11][12] - The U.S.-China relationship impacts foreign investment risk appetite in A-shares, with rising investor caution reflected in the VIX index [12] Group 5: Fund Flows and Institutional Adjustments - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have slowed, with significant net outflows on certain trading days [13] - Institutional investors are reducing holdings in high-valuation sectors, shifting towards low-valuation, high-dividend assets [13] Group 6: Divergence in Corporate Earnings Expectations - Some AI and semiconductor companies are reporting earnings below expectations, putting pressure on the Nasdaq index [14] - Domestic consumption recovery is weak, with sectors like liquor and home appliances experiencing slowed growth [14] Group 7: Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - Diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with single assets, including a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds [16] - Focus on high-dividend, low-valuation assets such as banks and utilities is advised for conservative investors [16] - Implementing a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging in index funds, can help smooth market volatility [17][18] - Maintaining a cash reserve of 30%-50% during high uncertainty allows for flexibility in investment opportunities [19] - A long-term perspective is crucial to avoid emotional trading and capitalize on the inherent value of quality assets [20] Group 8: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The stock market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by monetary policy decisions, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and further easing in China [20]

中东地缘对 LPG 影响 20250624 摘要 以伊冲突缓和后，地缘政治溢价消退，布伦特原油预计震荡走弱，难以 重回 80 美元/桶高位。OPEC 持续增产，需求端受中美贸易谈判不确定 性影响，基本面压力或导致油价趋势性回落。 特朗普政府及重新上任后，其压低油价言论对市场影响显著，是观察地 缘政治和供需变化的重要因素。其意外表态常能引发市场波动，对未来 预期产生重要影响。 液化气（LPG）市场与原油价格联动，受贸易战和地缘政治缓和影响， 价格呈现走弱趋势。未来 LPG 市场走势可能继续受全球经济环境及相关 能源价格波动影响，维持疲软状态。 油价通过碳四价格传导影响液化气市场。原油价格影响汽油价格，进而 影响调油料（如烷基化和 MTBE），这些调油料的上游原料是碳四，最 终影响液化气价格。 碳四在液化气期货市场中的重要性增加，因其可作为交割品。近期原油 及其衍生品波动加剧，使得市场更关注由原油到成品油再到醚后碳四的 链条变化，而非单纯关注海外 CP 丙烷期货。 Q&A 近期中东地缘政治局势对原油市场的影响如何？ 从今年 6 月开始，中东地缘政治局势对原油市场产生了显著影响。6 月 11 日， 美国宣布撤离其在 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 地缘方面，当前伊以双方在美国的介入下实现停火，冲突带来的避险快速回落。美国宏 观方面，尽管昨日的 PMI 数据表现出韧性，但美联储官员鲍曼和古尔斯比均暗示可能 在 7 月降息，令美元和美债收益率快速下行，对贵金属实现较好的支撑作用。整体来 看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来一定的溢价出清的压力，但市场后续的焦点可能重 新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险并未消除，美 联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预 计贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 【交易策略】 1.单边：以逢低做多思路为主。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：观望。 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金盘中宽幅震荡，最终收涨 0.01%，收报 3367.95 美元/盎 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].

电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铜强铝弱 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价夜盘走强，伦铜拉升至 9700 美元一线。盘后特朗普表示 伊朗和以色列将全面停火，美铜拉升至 5 美分/磅一线。今日午间新 华社快讯:据伊朗新闻电视台报道，伊朗 24 日对以色列发动数轮袭击 后，停火开始。产业层面，23 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.19 万吨， 较上去去库 1.05 万吨。产业补库意愿上升，7-8 月差也有所走强。 此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走强，这说明了海外电解铜 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 伊以冲突缓和，油价挤出地缘溢价。周末美国下场对伊朗核设施进行轰炸， | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 伊朗扬言封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当地时间 23 日，特朗普宣布，以色列和伊 | | | | 朗已同意全面停火，油价大幅回落。当前油价重回供需基本面定价，走势 | | | | 震荡偏弱。策略：短期建议观望，等待地缘风险进一步释放。SC【510-540】 | | | | 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 | | | | 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 | | | | 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4350】 | | | | 地缘降温，社库大幅去化，停车比例升至 19%，华北基差为-54（环比-29）。 | | L | 2024 | 年自伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，进口存缩量 | | | 空头盘整 | 预期。本周检修力度增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...