Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors have led to a significant decline in polyolefin prices. Although the market sentiment has cooled and international oil prices have dropped, the risk of raw material supply interruption still exists, and there are expectations of supply contraction and cost support. For PE, the start - up rate has declined, and downstream demand has increased. For PP, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the social inventory has started to decline from a high level [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - Figures include plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, PP East China basis, L05 - L09, and PP05 - PP09 [8][13][14] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE start - up rate is 86.9% (-1.0%), PP start - up rate is 74.4% (-1.1%). PE oil - based production profit is 392.5 yuan/ton (+1496.0), PP oil - based production profit is 152.5 yuan/ton (+1496.0), PDH - made PP production profit is - 544.3 yuan/ton (+474.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures show price differences such as HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [33][34] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is 2021.1 yuan/ton (+1960.8), PP import profit is - 434.7 yuan/ton (+308.0), PP export profit is - 349.0 US dollars/ton (-241.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 18.9% (+8.8%), PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 40.3% (+15.6%), PP downstream plastic braiding start - up rate is 37.7% (+8.4%), PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 59.6% (+12.0) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Relevant figures show PE and PP inventories in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, social, and port reserves [76][78][88] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously buy LLDPE and PP at low prices for hedging - Inter - period: Go long on L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 at low prices - Cross - variety: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump signaled that "the war will end soon", and the G7 group discussed releasing strategic reserves, causing market sentiment to cool rapidly, leading to a significant correction in international oil prices and a collective pullback in chemical sector varieties. However, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and the risk of raw material supply interruption still exists. Supply - side contraction expectations and cost - side support remain. If the Middle East situation does not cool down, more domestic olefin enterprises may reduce their loads [2] - Currently, the supply of raw material propane for propylene is tight, and the losses of PDH device profits are deepening, increasing the expectation of PDH shutdown. The demand from downstream industries is picking up. In the short term, with the Strait of Hormuz not clearly unobstructed, cost increases, and a tight supply - demand pattern, there is a risk of market fluctuations [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 7473 yuan/ton (- 225), the East China spot price of propylene is 8875 yuan/ton (- 825), the North China spot price is 8800 yuan/ton (- 950), the East China basis of propylene is 1402 yuan/ton (- 600), and the Shandong basis is 1327 yuan/ton (- 725) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 73% (+ 1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 229 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (+ 49), and the import profit is - 363 yuan/ton (+ 46) [1] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 27% (+ 3.67%), production profit is - 550 yuan/ton (- 350); propylene oxide capacity utilization is 80% (+ 0%), production profit is - 580 yuan/ton (- 25); n - butanol capacity utilization is 86% (+ 1%), production profit is 1732 yuan/ton (+ 139); octanol capacity utilization is 95% (- 2%), production profit is 656 yuan/ton (+ 684); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 79% (- 1%), production profit is 4199 yuan/ton (+ 586); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 75% (- 1%), production profit is - 86 yuan/ton (+ 924); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 88% (+ 0%), production profit is 2500 yuan/ton (+ 1790) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 44640 tons (- 330) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors drive short - term strength in the polyester sector, but there is a risk of price pull - backs after surges [1] - PX: Supply expectations decline due to geopolitical impacts, and demand from downstream PTA improves, leading to a short - term upward trend, but attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics [6] - PTA: Although the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, there is an overall inventory accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [10] - MEG: The cost support is enhanced, and the supply is expected to decline, with prices likely to be strong in the short term [13] - Polyester: The load continues to rise, and inventory is reduced due to speculative stocking, but new orders need time to catch up [157][158][159] - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates with raw materials [200] - Bottle - chip: Supply gradually increases, prices follow raw materials, and processing fees fluctuate [246] 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Market Overview**: Asian PX prices rose significantly, with the absolute price increasing by 15.8% week - on - week to $1079/ton CFR. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz strengthened the expectation of Asian refinery load reduction, driving up prices [28] - **Supply**: Asian and domestic PX operating rates declined. Domestic PX load dropped to 90.4% (- 2%), and Asian PX load dropped to 83.2% (- 1.7%). Some domestic and overseas refineries reduced their loads [29] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA load increased to 81% (+ 3.4%), with some devices restarting or increasing loads [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. PXN first compressed and then recovered, from $295/ton to $251/ton and then back to around $304/ton [6] - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to decline, and demand is improving. Short - term prices are strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, beware of the risk of price pull - backs after surges and do not chase long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [7] PTA - **Market Overview**: PTA prices rose significantly, with the weekly average spot price increasing by 7.5%. The futures price hit the daily limit on Thursday, and the spot price followed. The basis strengthened [80] - **Supply**: Domestic PTA load increased to 81% (+ 3.4%), with some devices restarting or increasing loads and some in maintenance [81] - **Demand**: Polyester load increased to 84.1% (+ 4.6%), and the downstream demand was gradually recovering [9] - **Valuation**: Neutral - low. The spot processing fee was around 242 yuan/ton, and the TA2605 and TA2609 disk processing fees were 391 yuan/ton and 449 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Outlook**: Although the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, there is an overall inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [10] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, beware of the risk of price pull - backs after surges and do not chase long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [10][11] MEG - **Market Overview**: The domestic and foreign prices of MEG rose. The basis first rose and then fell, and the 5 - 9 spread increased significantly [115][116] - **Supply**: The average comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 74.14%, and the coal - based operating rate was 83.03%. Some devices were in maintenance or reduced loads, and port inventory continued to accumulate to 100.2 tons [115][126] - **Demand**: The polyester load increased seasonally, and the demand for MEG is expected to increase [13] - **Valuation**: The oil - based profit of MEG decreased significantly, and the coal - based profit increased. The EO - EG spread first decreased and then increased [116] - **Outlook**: The cost support is enhanced, and the supply is expected to decline. The price is likely to be strong in the short term, with inventory reduction expected in March and continued inventory reduction in April - May [13][147] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see. For inter - period trading, go long on the EG5 - 9 spread when the price is low. For options, lightly buy EG2605 call options [14] Polyester - **Supply**: The polyester load increased to 84.1% (+ 4.6%), with some devices restarting and some in maintenance [157] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester filament factories decreased, with POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories at 14 (- 6.1), 20.1 (- 4.5), and 25.3 (- 9.3) days respectively [158] - **Demand**: The downstream demand was gradually recovering, but new orders were slow to follow up. The terminal speculative stocking increased [159] - **Outlook**: The load continues to rise, and inventory is reduced due to speculative stocking, but new orders need time to catch up [157][158][159] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided in the report Short - fiber - **Supply**: The operating rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased to 84.6% (+ 10.2%) [203] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 10.2 days (- 2.1) and the physical inventory at 17.2 days (- 3.2) [204] - **Demand**: The load of downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn increased, but the cash - flow was in a loss [205] - **Valuation**: The processing fee was compressed, with the spot processing fee at around 944 yuan/ton and the PF2604 and PF2605 disk processing fees at 883 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively [206] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates with raw materials [200] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the PF04 is the same as PTA. For arbitrage, the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton [20] Bottle - chip - **Supply**: The production of polyester bottle - chips increased to 31.68 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.42% (+ 1.14 percentage points) [248] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased, with the physical inventory days at 15.03 days (- 1.52 days) [248] - **Demand**: The downstream demand was gradually recovering, with the soft - drink industry operating at 70 - 80% and the oil refinery at around 58%, and the PET sheet industry at 50 - 60% [248] - **Valuation**: The profit decreased slightly, with the average spot processing fee at 570.29 yuan/ton (- 24 yuan/ton) [248] - **Outlook**: Supply gradually increases, prices follow raw materials, and processing fees fluctuate [246] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the PR is the same as PTA. The PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton. Hold call - option buyers [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by Middle - East geopolitics, the short - term trends of pure benzene and styrene are bullish, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise. The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decline, and the demand support is strong in the short term; for styrene, the supply increase is limited in March, and there is a slight destocking expectation. [1][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - The weekly output of petroleum benzene is 453,300 tons (-13,700 tons), and the operating rate is 76.56% (-2.31%). Sinopec Quanzhou's reforming unit is starting up, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit is shut down, and some enterprises' loads have decreased. The operating rate of hydro - benzene remains stable at 62.67%. [4] - From March to May, the planned new production capacity of pure benzene is about 620,000 tons/year, and the planned shutdown involves a production capacity of 3.48 million tons/year. The estimated new output is about 36,000 tons, and the loss in production during the period is about 206,000 tons. [17] 3.1.2 Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of downstream industries has slightly declined. The operating rate of styrene is 74.11% (-0.1%), phenol is 89% (-1%), caprolactam remains stable at 74.5%, and aniline is 89.35% (+0.23%). The consumption of the three major downstream styrene is 263,900 tons (+71,300 tons). [5][9] - From March to May, the new production capacity of downstream is about 1.53 million tons/year. Considering the restart of some long - shut - down devices, the estimated new output of pure benzene in downstream is about 197,000 tons, and the demand loss due to downstream device maintenance is about 312,000 tons. [17] 3.1.3 Valuation - The valuation is neutral. In March, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. Driven by the cost side, the price has strengthened. The BZN has been repaired, expanding from 140 US dollars/ton in the previous week to around 192 US dollars/ton. [6] 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. Long positions should be cautious about the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is not recommended to continue to chase long positions. Pay attention to the oil price trend. - Arbitrage: The fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene in the future. It is expected that the processing spread between styrene and pure benzene will continue to compress (currently, the EB04 - BZ04 spread is 1363). [7][10] 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of styrene is 371,700 tons (-700 tons), and the operating rate is 74.11% (-0.13%). There are no new start - up or shut - down devices in China during the cycle, and the loads of individual devices in the Northeast, East, and South China have been slightly adjusted. In March, some devices are expected to restart, but some devices also have maintenance plans, so the supply increase is limited. [11] 3.2.2 Demand - After the Spring Festival, downstream demand is gradually recovering. Coupled with the previous export shipments, there is a slight destocking expectation for styrene supply - demand in March. As of March 6, the consumption of the main downstream of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) in China is 263,900 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from last week. [11][83] 3.2.3 Valuation - The valuation is high. Due to the good profit of the styrene industry, the load of styrene factories remains stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream load has recovered rapidly, and there are still export transactions. The supply - demand of styrene has improved marginally, and the profit has been maintained. The non - integrated cash flow has been slightly compressed from 628 yuan/ton in the previous week to around 623 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. Long positions should be cautious about the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is not recommended to continue to chase long positions. Pay attention to the oil price trend. - Arbitrage: The fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene in the future. It is expected that the processing spread between styrene and pure benzene will continue to compress (currently, the EB04 - BZ04 spread is 1363). [7][10] 3.3 2026 Production Plan 3.3.1 Pure Benzene - The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2026 is 2.41 million tons, with multiple enterprises in different provinces having new production capacity. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene downstream in 2026 is 2.13 million tons, with a total consumption of pure benzene of 1.75 million tons. [13] 3.3.2 Styrene - The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.37 million tons, and in 2026 is 700,000 tons. The total planned production capacity of styrene downstream in 2026 is 2.8 million tons, with a total consumption of styrene of 2.35 million tons. [14] 3.4 2026 March - May Pure Benzene Industry Chain Device Dynamics - Multiple enterprises' devices have defensive production cuts or maintenance plans from March to May, with a total planned shutdown production capacity of 3.48 million tons. [16] - Overall, from March to May, the net supply of the domestic pure benzene industry chain decreases by about 170,000 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 115,000 tons, showing a destocking trend. [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro situation for the container shipping European line is bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors continue to dominate the market trend. With the volatile Middle - East situation, container shipping prices fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities and strictly control risks [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **行情复盘 (Market Review)** - On Tuesday, all container shipping routes to Europe declined, with the main EC2604 contract dropping by 13.92% [1] **重要资讯 (Important Information)** - The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran entered the 11th day on the 10th. US President Trump said he would lift some oil - related sanctions to stabilize oil prices and that the war against Iran would "soon" end. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran responded that the end of the war would be decided by Iran [1] - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and US ambassadors can freely pass through the Strait of Hormuz from the next day [1] - Trump said on the 10th that there might be conditional negotiations with Iran. The US government asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure [1] - Due to the transportation disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait cut production by about 6.7 million barrels per day in total, and the global oil supply decreased by about 6% [1] **市场逻辑 (Market Logic)** - On March 9, SIFIS closed at 1545.46, up 5.6% from the previous period [1] - On March 6, the SCFI index closed at 1489.19, up 156.08 points week - on - week [1] - In terms of spot quotes, the average spot quote for the late March (wk12) was about $2600 for a large container, and there were some special - price voyages. The overall freight rate was far lower than the price increase targets announced by shipping companies on the Mediterranean routes [1] **交易策略 (Trading Strategy)** - Geopolitical factors continue to dominate the market trend. With the volatile Middle - East situation, container shipping prices fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities and strictly control risks [1]

"护航"乌龙消息触发原油市场剧烈震荡，WTI 原油期货盘中跌幅近 20%，创 2022 年以来最大日跌幅，凸显伊朗局势紧张、美国政策摇摆等地缘因素对短期情绪的 冲击。中国经济展现强大韧性，2 月以美元计价出口同比大增 39.6%，进口增长 13.8%，1-2 月原油进口创同期新高，但铜、钢材进口下滑而稀土出口激增 23%， 反映内部经济结构正主动调整升级。十四届全国人大四次会议审查通过"十五五" 规划纲要草案，确认"十四五"目标任务胜利完成，并将"发展新质生产力"置 于建议首位，为中国式现代化建设锚定清晰路径，提供穿越波动的长期确定性。 美国农业部 3 月报告显示大豆产量预期维持稳定，期末库存略高于市场预期。整 体而言，市场正面临短期情绪扰动、中期数据分化和长期政策定力之间的交织与 权衡。 重点品种：原油、黄金、股指 原油：SC 夜盘下跌 12.34%。美国总统特朗普在佛罗里达州迈阿密市举行的一场 新闻发布会上称，美国对伊朗的军事行动会"很快"结束，但"不会"在本周结 束。特朗普称，若伊朗影响到全球原油供应，将对其予以更猛烈打击；特朗普还 表示，若时机成熟，美国海军将在霍尔木兹海峡护航。但是，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to experience high volatility. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, have a significant impact on the oil and chemical markets. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and investors are advised to adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - Crude oil and oil products' volatility has increased, which is conducive to the repair of chemical valuations. The decline of chemical futures on the night of March 10 was significantly less than that of crude oil futures. The supply reduction in the chemical industry chain caused by the Middle East situation is expected to gradually appear in about a month [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with each product showing different trends and influencing factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to sharp price fluctuations. The situation in the US - Iran conflict and the passage prospects of the Strait of Hormuz are still in a state of expected swing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the situation to become clearer [6]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has fallen from a high level. The market is focused on geopolitical developments. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the inventory is accumulating. The long - term valuation is expected to decline, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are still the core. The price is volatile and likely to rise. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact. In the long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, its current valuation is low, and it is expected to be volatile [9]. - **PX**: The price has significantly declined due to cost factors, but the supply is gradually being affected by the Strait blockade. In the short - term, it is in a tight pattern, and the price is expected to be volatile. The mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [11]. - **PTA**: It follows the wide - range fluctuations of upstream costs. The basis remains relatively stable, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may see production cuts by some enterprises, and the downstream industry's profit has improved [14]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may have more production cuts and maintenance, and the export has increased. It may return to the de - stocking stage in March [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The high - level increase is blocked. It follows the cost and market sentiment to fluctuate. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a wide - range consolidation [18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market is re - positioning, waiting for the downstream market to digest. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the processing fee has certain support [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The price follows the cost to decline, and the trading atmosphere has improved. The absolute price follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the support for the processing fee has increased [20]. - **Methanol**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium [23]. - **Urea**: After the market sentiment fades, it oscillates and consolidates. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has both supporting and weakening factors [24]. - **LLDPE**: The price has fallen. It is affected by the decline in oil prices and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [26]. - **PP**: The price has declined. It is affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors. The refinery's profit has different performances, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [27]. - **PL**: The price has adjusted. The market has returned to rationality, and the short - term profit of the powder material has been compressed. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [28]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and it should be treated with caution. The supply may be reduced, the export has improved, and it is expected to be volatile [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has difficulty rising, and it is temporarily oscillating. Geopolitical factors may lead to a reduction in chlorine - alkali supply, and the export has improved [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.59 with a change of - 0.65 dollars/barrel, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 700 with a change of - 92 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 yuan/ton with a change of - 121 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [34]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different changes in inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 285 with a change of - 91 yuan/ton [35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemical products, but specific data summaries are not provided in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term开工 will remain high, but geopolitical factors still exist. With the post - holiday orders of domestic agents being sent out, the domestic shortage of some enterprises will be alleviated. Due to the high overseas raw material prices providing cost support and the geopolitical factors causing price fluctuations, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [1]. Urea - On March 10, the urea futures followed the chemical sector, opening low and moving high, and the spot market price was adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of urea have not changed much, with high - level production. There is still pressure on the supply side. There is still some demand for green - turning fertilizer in the agricultural sector, and industrial demand is recovering. In the short term, the urea price is relatively strong, but after the green - turning fertilizer season ends in the second half of the month, there may be a market downturn. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1,860 - 1,900 range [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: On March 10, the caustic soda futures hit the daily limit down during the session and then rose at the end. The spot market is still optimistic, and the caustic soda price has been slightly increased. The supply - side load is slowly recovering, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum downstream demand is improving. Due to the Middle East conflict, the international supply chain risk has increased, and the export expectation has strengthened. However, the overall supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and price fluctuations [5]. - **PVC**: On March 10, the PVC futures price dropped significantly, and the low - price transactions in the spot market were good. The supply - demand situation has changed slightly. The ethylene - based production enterprises may reduce their loads in the long term, while the calcium carbide - based production enterprises have slightly increased their loads and costs. Domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes. The PVC price may be passively pushed up, but it is also affected by the uncertainty of the cost - end transmission [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: On March 10, the soda ash futures fell, and the spot price was driven up but the trading was light. The weekly production increased slightly, and the production line load fluctuated. The demand was average, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories moderately. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline, and short - selling can be attempted at the current price [6]. - **Glass**: On March 10, the glass futures price dropped. The spot price was raised. The supply - side daily melting volume remained low, and a new production line was ignited. The demand from downstream deep - processing and low - e products was average, and the futures price decline reduced the purchasing intention of futures - spot merchants. The inventory of production enterprises still faced pressure, and it is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The cost increase from energy prices needs further observation. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Polyolefins - The Middle East geopolitical situation is the core driver. The short - term logic is dominated by cost - push and supply reduction, and the fundamentals are secondary. The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game stage. The price fluctuates sharply following geopolitical news, and the high price lacks actual transaction support. After Trump's statement, the crude oil price fluctuated extremely, causing the domestic futures and spot prices to drop significantly, and the market is in a state of high volatility, low trading volume, and fragility [7]. Methanol - The methanol futures dropped significantly, and the spot was purchased on demand. The basis was relatively strong, and the overall transaction was okay. The domestic production device load remained at a relatively high level, but due to shipping interruptions, the market strongly expected a significant reduction in subsequent imports. The demand side remained weak, and the olefin开工 rate of the main downstream continued to decline. The current port inventory is still at a relatively high level in history, but the market expects the port to enter the de - stocking cycle. The current price trend is mainly driven by the supply interruption expectation and risk sentiment, and the subsequent trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [8]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工 rate data are presented [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the geopolitical influence, the crude oil transportation is blocked, and the Asian refinery开工 rate is expected to be affected. Some refineries at home and abroad have adjusted their loads, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the pure benzene supply is expected to decline. The downstream styrene industry has maintained its profit and load at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand support is strong. The pure benzene supply - demand expectation has improved, but it will fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the spread between EB04 and BZ04 when it is high [12]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry has good profits, and the supply in March will remain at a high level. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, and the supply - demand in March is expected to slightly de - stock. It will also fluctuate with the crude oil price. The same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some PX factories in Asia have issued force majeure, and the PX supply is gradually affected. After the holiday, some PTA devices have restarted or increased their loads due to improved processing fees, and the PX supply - demand situation is gradually improving. It is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see for now and go long at a low price after the market stabilizes [13]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has increased after the holiday, and the March device maintenance plan is less than expected. Although the supply - demand expectation has improved, there is still an inventory accumulation expectation. It will follow the cost - end fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to the oil price trend [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly decreased due to the shutdown or load reduction of multiple coal - based and oil - based ethylene glycol devices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the transportation of overseas sources, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be low from mid - March. The polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and the de - stocking amplitude may increase. However, due to Trump's statement, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is still weak. It will follow the raw material price fluctuation and is affected by the cautious downstream procurement. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PF disk processing fee will fluctuate between 800 - 1,100 [13]. - **Bottle - chip**: The domestic bottle - chip supply will gradually increase in March. The absolute price will follow the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee will fluctuate. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [13]. Crude Oil - WTI 04 - month contract closed at $83.45 per barrel, down 11.94%, and Brent 05 - month contract closed at $87.80 per barrel, down 11.28%. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. Due to the drone attack, ADNOC has closed its refinery. The US strategic oil reserve remains stable. It will take at least 4 - 6 weeks for the Gulf region to fully resume export functions, and Iran has not clearly stated to stop the blockade. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate significantly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.18%. The full - latex basis decreased by 420 yuan/ton to - 362 yuan/ton, with a decline of 763.64%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 15,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 680 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.16%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.61%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 54,800 tons to 549,000 tons, with an increase of 11.09%. Indonesia's production decreased by 28,200 tons to 161,100 tons, with a decline of 14.90%. India's production decreased by 3,900 tons to 108,100 tons, with a decline of 3.48%. In December, China's production decreased by 84,500 tons to 51,200 tons. The开工 rate of semi - steel tires increased by 39.47 percentage points to 74.03%, and the开工 rate of full - steel tires increased by 36.73 percentage points to 65.90%. In December, the domestic tire production increased by 473,500 pieces to 10,656,300 pieces, with an increase of 4.65%. The tire export volume increased by 186,000 pieces to 5,843,000 pieces, with an increase of 3.29%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 159,900 tons to 803,400 tons, with an increase of 24.84% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 200 tons to 680,412 tons, with an increase of 0.07%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 202 tons to 20,399 tons, with a decline of 0.40% [1]. Urea - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: The 01 contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 contract decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1,856 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The 09 contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 1,884 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.88%. The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton [4]. - **Main - contract Position**: The long - position of the top 20 decreased by 14,403 to 121,561, with a decline of 10.59%. The short - position of the top 20 decreased by 25,730 to 177,959, with a decline of 14.46% [4]. - **Upstream Raw Material Price**: The price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the port in Qinhuangdao remained unchanged at 746 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market Price**: The price of small - particle urea in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.53%. The price in Guangdong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.54% [4]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 3,200 tons to 221,200 tons, with an increase of 1.49%. The weekly production decreased by 15,700 tons to 1,003,000 tons, with a decline of 13.53%. The factory - warehouse inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 190,000 tons, with an increase of 9.20% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 1,843.8 yuan/ton. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of PVC in East China by calcium carbide method decreased by 610 yuan/ton to 5,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.6%. The price of PVC in East China by ethylene method increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.3% [5]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price at East China ports increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 340 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.0%. The export profit increased by 42.6 yuan/ton to 230.2 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22.7% [5]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 700 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in India increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.8%. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 635 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 37.3 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton, with an increase of 79.4% [5]. - **Supply (Caustic Soda and PVC开工率 and Industry Profit)**: The开工率 of the caustic soda industry increased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.4%. The total开工率 of PVC decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 81.1%. The profit of PVC by external - purchase calcium carbide method increased by 135 yuan/ton to - 507 yuan/ton, with an increase of 21.0%. The profit of northwest integrated production increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 293.1 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18.2% [5]. - **Demand (Caustic Soda and PVC Downstream开工率)**: The开工率 of the alumina industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 82.6%. The开工率 of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.7 percentage points to 90.1%. The开机率 of the printing and dyeing industry increased by 18.1 percentage points to 42.5%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample pipes increased by 19.4 percentage points to 33.0%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample profiles increased by 16.1 percentage points to 27.4% [5]. - **Inventory (Caustic Soda and PVC Social and Factory - warehouse Inventory)**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda increased by 0.9 tons to 55 tons, with an increase of 1.7%. The upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%. The price in East China remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton. The glass 2605 contract decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,076 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.54%. The 05 basis increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 86.36% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.40%. The price in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,25

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a high level of uncertainty. For LLDPE, the cracking supply contraction continues, and for PP, the supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, leading to a contraction in upstream operations. The supply - side contraction expectation of polyolefins continues, and the market sentiment is affected by the sharp decline in the market [1]. - The geopolitical issue remains unresolved. For PE, the cost is increasing due to the expected strong performance of naphtha, and there is an expected improvement in demand after the festival; for PP, the cost is strongly supported, the PDH maintenance rate is high, and the demand is expected to improve after the Lantern Festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For L2605, the closing price was 7767 with a daily decline of 2.23%, trading volume of 1,646,638, and a decrease of 97,004 in positions; for PP2605, the closing price was 7820 with a daily decline of 2.66%, trading volume of 1,781,910, and a decrease of 116,215 in positions. The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was 33 (previous day: 1156), and for PP2605 was 80 (previous day: 1166). The 05 - 09 contract spread for L2605 was 323 (previous day: 188), and for PP2605 was 495 (previous day: 349) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In North China, the LLDPE spot price was 7800 yuan/ton (previous day: 9100), and PP was 7900 yuan/ton (previous day: 9700); in East China, LLDPE was 7750 yuan/ton (previous day: 9500), and PP was 7900 yuan/ton (previous day: 9200); in South China, LLDPE was 8100 yuan/ton (previous day: 9500), and PP was 8150 yuan/ton (previous day: 9400) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The geopolitical situation continues to affect raw material transportation. Plants such as LG Bohai, Formosa Plastics, and BASF have announced force - majeure production cuts, and the supply - side contraction expectation of polyolefins continues. The sharp decline in the market has dampened market sentiment, petrochemical manufacturers have lowered ex - factory prices, traders have significantly reduced quotes, and end - users are cautious with limited purchasing power [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical issue has led to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting logistics. Naphtha is expected to be strong, increasing the PE cost. There is an expected improvement in the demand for mulch film after the festival, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF's Zhanjiang plant has achieved mass production, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts is expected to increase in March, the standard product production schedule is stable, and the inventory accumulation during the festival is relatively large [2]. - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and the PDH maintenance rate remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries are expected to resume work intensively, and the demand will improve month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in cracking and PDH plants [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 1 [4]