Group 1: Market Overview - Global geopolitical events continue to escalate, with Trump threatening intervention in Iran and imposing tariffs on European countries, which has led to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [1][11] - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,690 per ounce on January 19, driven by market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following a subpoena sent to Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice [1][12] - The geopolitical risks in South America and the Middle East, particularly regarding Venezuela, have contributed to a rise in metal prices, while Trump's threats of tariffs on European nations have further supported gold prices [1][12] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was reported at 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI showed a slight decrease [2][13] - The core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky into the first half of 2026, influenced by vehicle inflation and rising core service inflation [2][13] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump's preference for Hassett to remain at the National Economic Council has increased market expectations for Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with nearly 60% of market participants favoring him [3][14] - Walsh is cautious about significant interest rate cuts and advocates for a substantial reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, indicating a potential shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [3][14] Group 4: Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold ETF saw an increase of over 20 tons in holdings last week, indicating renewed interest from trend-following funds after a period of adjustment [1][12] - The annual rebalancing of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is nearing completion, suggesting that market dynamics may stabilize and attract more investment in gold [1][12]

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d(AU(t+d))于2026年1月20日收盘报1047.60元/克，日内上涨0.69%，最高触及1048.50元/克，站稳 1040元/克关键支撑，延续强势上行趋势。日线级别呈现多头排列，价格持续运行于布林带上轨， MACD红柱稳定放大，RSI维持在67附近，未现超买钝化，量能温和放大，确认趋势动能坚实。驱动因 素包括国际金价突破4670美元/盎司、全球央行持续购金(2026年预期购金超950吨)、美联储降息预期强 化及地缘风险升温。短期支撑位1040–1042元/克，阻力位上看1050–1055元/克，突破后有望挑战1060元/ 克心理关口。 【要闻速递】 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日在达沃斯论坛会见美国国会两党代表团时强调，美方须明确尊重格陵兰岛 和丹麦主权，此为跨大西洋关系关键。她表示欧盟愿继续与美、北约及盟友在丹麦合作下推进共同安全 利益，并指出加征关税与欧美经贸共同利益相悖。 摘要今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1045元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报1045.18 元/克，涨幅0.46%，最高触及1048.50元/克，最低下探1042.74 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - The core logic is that geopolitical factors have weakened, and the crude oil market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals, so it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Strength Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is yesterday's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3]. - The concepts of strongly/weakly only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Crude Oil Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have been frequently signaled by US President Trump, with Greenland and Mexico being potential targets. Although the signal of a暂缓 strike on Iran has weakened short - term geopolitical risks, the US - Iran conflict remains a major focus [5]. - The crude oil futures market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night trading on Monday and is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Tuesday [5].

Group 1: Nasdaq Performance - The Nasdaq index has shown a strong core trend since the end of October, despite minor pullbacks due to Federal Reserve policy debates, supported by the stable performance of leading tech stocks [1][7] - The market consensus in the Nasdaq survey was notably accurate, with 37% of users correctly predicting the closing point of 23,515 within the 23,500-24,000 range, making it the largest winner [1][7] - The bullish sentiment dominates the current US stock market, with 67% of users supporting high price ranges above 24,000, while only 16% are bearish [1][7] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The gold market has seen a significant price increase, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reporting prices exceeding 1,450 RMB per gram, a 56% increase year-on-year, reaching historical highs [3][10] - The gold survey revealed a collective bullish sentiment, with 63% of users supporting high price ranges of 4,600-4,700 and above, but only 18% accurately predicted the closing price of 4,595, indicating a disconnect between sentiment and actual market performance [3][10] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a significant rise due to geopolitical risks but later corrected to below $60 per barrel as the situation in the Middle East stabilized, highlighting the influence of fundamental factors on price movements [4][13] - In the oil survey, 34% of users anticipated prices above $62, but the final closing price of $59.22 fell within the 58-60 range, with a nearly equal split in user predictions [4][13] Group 4: Silver Market Volatility - The silver market has been highly volatile, with a cumulative increase of approximately 147% in 2025, reaching a historical high of $94 per ounce before experiencing a significant pullback [5][14] - The silver survey results were extremely close, with a tie in votes on whether the price could hold above $90, ultimately closing at $90.04, reflecting intense market competition [5][14]

日线图上，上周黄金冲高遇阻后，走势高位震荡调整，本周一金价再创历史新高，短期表现强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关 注周一黄金冲高遇阻后的回落低点4652美元，其次周一黄金跳空高开时的回落低点4618美元，这里也是当前5日均线位置； 黄金上方压力，主要关注周一创造的历史高点4690美元，若向上突破，关注日线布林带上轨位置4730美元附近。5日均线与 MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ指标金叉向上，RSI指标金叉小幅下拐，短期技术面显示多方占优，黄金存在进一步上涨的可 能。 黄金日内参考：美国夺取格陵兰岛，不给就加征关税，市场避险情绪快速升温，对黄金上涨形成重要支撑。操作上建议震 荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4652美元，其次4618美元，上方压力关注4690美元，其次4730美元。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，上周黄金再创历史新高后，我们认为美联储降息预期、地缘紧张局势与央行强劲买盘， 仍对黄金形成重要支撑，此后金价虽然遇阻调整，但回落十分有限，到了本周一，黄金继续上涨，再创历史新高，地缘风 险是推动金价冲高的重要原因。具体来看，美国图谋格陵兰岛的风波在近期持续升级，上周末美国总统特朗普公布了其夺 取格陵兰岛控制 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. - For different sectors and varieties, the short - term judgments are mainly "oscillatory", with some showing "oscillatory upward" or "oscillatory downward" trends [16][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures price was 4728.6, with a daily increase of 0.17, a weekly increase of 0.11, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.8. The SSE 50 futures price was 3077.6, with a daily decrease of 0.08, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.74. The CSI 500 futures price was 8266, with a daily increase of 1.11, a weekly increase of 0.68, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.27. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8186.6, with a daily increase of 0.49, a weekly increase of 0.09, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.09 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price was 102.4, with no daily change, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.05. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures price was 105.785, with a daily decrease of 0.03, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.02. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures price was 108.04, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.17. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures price was 110.92, with a daily decrease of 0.23, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.44 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.3691, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.23, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.12. The US dollar mid - price was 6.9703 pips, with a daily increase of 32, a weekly decrease of 80, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 187 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.443 bp, with a daily decrease of 5.94, a weekly decrease of 2.97, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 53.91. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.8424 bp, with a daily decrease of 1.2, a weekly decrease of 3.58, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.49. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.24 bp, with a daily increase of 7 [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - Industries such as national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and consumer services had relatively high daily and weekly increases, while industries like computer, telecommunications, and non - banking finance had declines [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 59.22, with a daily increase of 0.08, a weekly increase of 0.75, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.15. ICE Brent crude oil price was 64.2, with a daily increase of 0.69, a weekly increase of 1.87, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.4. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.109, with a daily decrease of 1.11, a weekly decrease of 1.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 16.22. ICE UK natural gas price was 98.39, with a daily increase of 13.42, a weekly increase of 33.88, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 31.87 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 4601.1, with a daily decrease of 0.49, a weekly increase of 1.83, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.21. COMEX silver price was 89.945, with a daily decrease of 2.6, a weekly increase of 12.73, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 26.72 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 12803, with a daily decrease of 2.31, a weekly decrease of 1.5, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.45. LME aluminum price was 3134, with a daily decrease of 1.06, a weekly decrease of 0.06, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.57. LME zinc price was 3209, with a daily decrease of 3.18, a weekly increase of 1.76, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.66 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean price was 1056.25, with a daily increase of 0.31, a weekly decrease of 0.61, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.86. CBOT soybean oil price was 52.51, with a daily decrease of 0.87, no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.24, and a quarterly and annual increase of 8.16 [8]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 439.25, with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.22 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.47. Fuel oil price was 2526.6, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.38 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.11 [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper price was 101196.42, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.32 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.94. Aluminum price was affected by the potential shutdown of Mozal aluminum plant, with the price oscillating at a high level [12]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends, with rebar price decreasing and hot - rolled coil price having a certain increase in some periods. Iron ore price increased slightly, and coke and coking coal prices also had their own trends [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Prices of products such as soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil had different degrees of fluctuations [12]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The first half - week was driven by factors such as the weakening of the Fed's independence and better - than - expected US inflation data, while the second half - week was dragged down by factors such as the alleviation of concerns about key mineral tariffs, the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to initial jobless claims data [15]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, consumer spending showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation was postponed to June [15]. - **Domestic Macro**: Policy support focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, social financing data showed strong corporate loan and bond financing, and inflation improvement clues were clear [15]. - **Asset Views**: The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to oscillate upward, stock index options to oscillate, and Treasury bond futures to oscillate [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate upward [16]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Black Building Materials**: Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory upward trends [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory downward trends [18]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show different trends, with some oscillating upward, some oscillating downward, and most oscillating [18].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 300 points, indicating potential economic recovery or market manipulation [1] - TSMC's ADR increased by over 6%, reaching a market capitalization of over $1.8 trillion, reflecting both technological advantages and capital exuberance in the semiconductor industry [1] - The semiconductor supply chain is under scrutiny, with future performance dependent on orders, capacity, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with Bitcoin nearing $96,240 and Dogecoin dropping over 4%, highlighting the risks associated with leveraged trading [4] - Over 120,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant risk exposure among younger investors [4] Group 3: Precious Metals and Oil - Precious metals like gold and silver are facing declines, with silver dropping below $91 and gold falling below $4,620, suggesting that safe-haven assets are not immune to market sentiment [3][5] - Oil prices have also plummeted, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 4%, indicating market reactions to geopolitical events [3] Group 4: Employment and Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 198,000, the lowest since November 29 of the previous year, suggesting a stable job market [5] - Despite positive employment data, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about inflation and the need for continued tightening [5][6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is characterized by a preference for certain stocks, with leading technology and semiconductor companies like NVIDIA and Micron seeing significant gains [8] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective while managing leverage and liquidity, as short-term data can be misleading [9] - The current market environment emphasizes the need for transparency and comparability in data, as well as caution regarding interest rate paths and geopolitical risks [9]

Wolfinance星级分析师认为，上周五美盘盘中，黄金短线意外跳水，主要因特朗普讲话表示，希望让哈 塞特继续留任白宫，而哈塞特的货币政策立场极为鸽派，此前一直被视为下一任美联储主席的主要竞争 者之一，受次影响，市场小幅下调了6月降息的预期，美元短线跳涨，黄金短线跳水，不过之后金价很 快反弹，因市场对美联储年内降息2次依旧抱有较高期望，且近期支撑黄金价格的主要因素，除了美联 储的降息预期外，还包括地缘风险集中发酵，避险情绪升温，吸引避险资金持续涌入黄金市场。 日线图上，黄金在上周冲高遇阻后，走势保持高位震荡。黄金下方支撑，可以关注4580美元附近，上周 四黄金回落这里企稳，上周五黄金在亚欧盘，以及美盘跳水反抽后，一直站稳这里保持震荡走势，若金 价短线再次失守这里，关注前历史高点位置4550美元；黄金上方压力，关注4600美元整数位置，上周五 金价触底反弹后，在这里受到压制，多次向上试探未能取得突破，若取得向上突破，可以继续关注目前 的历史高点位置4642美元。5日均线金叉向上，MACD指标轻微下拐，KDJ与RSI指标金叉下拐，短期技 术面显示黄金上周冲高遇阻后，存在调整需求。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷 ...

报告导读： 期货研究报告 2026年01月19日 周报 贵金属期货：避险挥之不去，利多因素增加 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 图 1： 黄金期货内外盘价格 元/克 美元/金衡盎司 图 2：白银期货内外盘价格 元/千克 美元/金衡盎司 数据来源：同花顺，宁证期货 市场回顾与展望：美国总统特使威特科夫透露，美国已向伊朗传递直接信息。威特科夫称，伊朗经济 状况严峻，并表示若伊朗希望回归国际社会，可通过外交方式解决相关问题，其中，铀浓缩、导弹、敏感 材料以及"地区代理武装"是四项关键议题。威特科夫还称，如果无法通过外交方式解决相关问题，那么 "替代方案将非常糟糕"，地缘风险虽然没有进一步恶化，但是变动风险依然存在。与此同时，美国总统 特朗普表示，希望哈塞特留任现职而不是调往美联储。此番言论一出，前美联储理事凯文·沃什迅速跃升 为下一任美联储主席的最热门人选。围绕美联储主席继任人选依然悬而未决，华尔街避险情绪有所增加， 对贵金属也增加了利多因素。 美联储褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速度增长，3个 地区报告没有变化，1个地 ...

摘要今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，黄金价格在今天早上跳空高开，因周末特朗普称要对欧洲实施报复 行动，直至美国获准购买格陵兰岛为止，这使得格陵兰未来归属的争论升级。 今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，黄金价格在今天早上跳空高开，因周末特朗普称要对欧洲实施报复行 动，直至美国获准购买格陵兰岛为止，这使得格陵兰未来归属的争论升级。 【要闻速递】 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 地缘风险升温推升避险需求，黄金今日高开突破4650美元，技术面看，回补缺口是关键。当前15分钟 MA20均线位于4643.8，30分钟均线已在4616附近形成多头排列，短期涨势强劲。4650已由压力转为支 撑，结合上周4634压力位，今日核心支撑看4634和4643.8;压力位关注4699和4718。 凯投宏观指出，10%-25%关税对北约经济体GDP影响仅0.1-0.3个百分点，美国通胀升0.1-0.2个百分点， 但政治后果远超经济——武力夺岛或重创北约。当前僵局在于：欧洲坚守格陵兰主权红线，美国拒不让 步。 德意志银行外汇主管萨拉维洛斯揭示美国软肋：欧洲持有8万亿美元美国债券及股票(近乎全球其他地区 总和)，是美国最大"债主"，助力平衡其外部赤 ...