【白银期货行情表现】 6月19日，沪银主力暂报8915元/克，跌幅达0.85%，今日沪银主力开盘价9012元/克，截至目前最高9025 元/克，最低8885元/克。 【宏观消息】 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表讲话强调，伊朗绝不接受任何"强加的和平或战争"。绝不会对领土上遭受的 任何袭击"视而不见"，伊朗军队已经做好了充分的准备。以方犯下严重错误，将会受到"惩罚"。哈梅内 伊还表示，伊朗民族不会投降，任何"美国军事干预无疑都会带来无法弥补的损失"。 美联储6月议息会议：连续第四次维持利率不变，点阵图显示今年降息两次，但预计今年不降息的官员 人数升至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性，目前的经济情况适合观望。他 还预计未来几个月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称，美联储此次维持利 率不变，为今年下半年降息留下了可能性。为了恢复去年开始的降息，美联储官员可能需要看到劳动力 市场走软，或者有更有力的证据表明，关税导致的价格上涨将相对温和。 美国至6月14日当周初请失业金人数24.5万人，预期24.5万人，前值由24.8万人修正为25万人。 【机构观点】 银河期货 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has raised its unemployment rate and PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while lowering GDP expectations[3] - Nominal PCE and core PCE are projected to rise above 3%, with current core PCE at 2.52% and nominal PCE at 2.15%[4][15] - Inflation is expected to return to an upward trend in the second half of the year due to reduced negative contributions from energy and the delayed effects of tariffs[4][15] Employment Trends - Non-farm unemployment rate remains stable but shows signs of gradual weakening, with 350,000 new unemployed in the first half of 2025[5][16] - An estimated 500,000 new unemployed individuals are expected in 2023-2024, indicating a potential acceleration in job market cooling[5][16] Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for potential cuts mirroring the 2024 scenario, driven by unexpected economic weakness[6][20] - The dot plot indicates 7 officials expect no rate cuts in 2025, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a more cautious outlook compared to March[20] Asset Market Insights - The FOMC's impact on assets is minimal, with a slight increase in 10Y Treasury yields by 5 basis points and a $15 drop in COMEX gold prices[7][21] - Focus for the second half of the year will be on the interplay between U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, with a target yield range of 4.5%-4.6% for 10Y Treasuries[7][21] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks are rising, alongside uncertainties related to Trump’s policies and the potential for economic weakness exceeding expectations[9][25]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 继续观望，直至前景明朗 ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美联储议息会议上，美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明的关 键调整在于强调不确定性减弱但仍偏高。经济预测方面，美联储下调近两年 GDP 增速预期、 上调近三年通胀和失业率预期。降息路径方面，本次会议公布的点阵图结论上仍维持年内累计 降息 50BP 预期，但分布有所上移且趋于分散。总之，关税政策及其经济影响的不确定性导致 美联储倾向保持观望。向前看，经济数据的表现仍是决定未来货币政策的重中之重，未来降息 与否的关键在于：滞与胀谁先到来。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 继续观望，直至前景明朗 2] ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京 ...

>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the range at 4.25-4.5%[1] - The dot plot indicates a preference for two rate cuts within the year, which is more optimistic than market fears of only one cut[1] - The Fed is inclined to wait for economic uncertainties to resolve before making further decisions[2] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively[3] - Core PCE inflation rate forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%[3] - Tariffs are expected to increase import prices, contributing to domestic inflation pressures[3] Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts are around 48bp, with a possibility of only one cut if inflation continues to rise[4] - The dot plot shows a shift with more members supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy is expected to increase as the Fed's long-term projections are less reliable[5] Group 4: Leadership and Policy Implications - Concerns arise regarding the potential for a more dovish Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May 2026, which could undermine the Fed's independence[5] - If a new chair is influenced by the president, it may lead to a loss of credibility for the Fed and further depreciation of the dollar[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic projections indicate a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in both years [1][6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures despite a cooling labor market [1][6]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed has removed previous language indicating rising risks of unemployment and inflation, suggesting a more stable outlook but still high uncertainty [2][5]. - The dot plot indicates that 8 out of 19 committee members support two rate cuts this year, while 7 favor maintaining the current rate, reflecting internal debates on the necessity of rate cuts [5][8]. Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's hawkish signals, market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with a 66% probability, driven by recent weak economic data [8][9]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged is viewed as a prudent choice given the complex economic landscape, with potential policy shifts expected by late summer or early fall [8][9].

稳定币概念股Circle大涨34%。 *三大股指分化，纳指跌0.13%； *中长期美债收益率探底回升，10年期美债逼近4.40%； *银行股表现不俗，行业有望受益于资本缓冲松绑预期。 周一美股涨跌互现，市场消化美联储最新决议，并关注持续紧张的中东局势。截至收盘，道指跌44.14 点，跌幅0.10%，报42171.66点，纳指涨0.13%，报19546.27点，标普500指数跌0.03%，报5980.87点。美 国股市周四因六月节假期休市。 券商Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家卡尔蒂略（Peter Cardillo）表示："市场可能从收益率走 势中得到启示。在美联储确定关税对通胀的影响之前，不会改变货币政策，鲍威尔多次强调这一点。" 市场概述 美联储周三宣布，维持联邦基金利率区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。联邦公开市场委员会 FOMC经济预测摘要显示，今年降息两次的利率前景不变，同时降低了经济增长预期并提高了通胀预 测。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，货币政策仍需对经济施加一些限制。美联储政策制定者预计，随着美国总统特 朗普的关税对美国消费者的影响，商品价格通胀将在今年 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2][4] - The Fed's statement indicated a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, while still acknowledging that risks remain high [5][6] - The median forecast for interest rates remains unchanged, with expectations for two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, although the number of officials predicting no cuts has increased [11][16] - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, projecting a slowdown to 1.4% for this year, while raising unemployment and PCE inflation expectations [17][19][20] Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement reiterated that net export fluctuations have impacted data, but economic activity continues to expand steadily [7][8] - The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7][8] Interest Rate Projections - The updated dot plot shows a more hawkish stance, with an increase in the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year [16] - The median projections for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, indicating a lower expected rate of cuts compared to previous forecasts [11][12][13] Inflation and Unemployment Expectations - The Fed has raised its PCE inflation forecast for this year to 3.0%, significantly above the recently reported level of 2.1% [20][22] - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward, with projections of 4.5% for 2025, compared to previous estimates [19][22]

Group 1 - US stock market closed mixed, with investors focusing on Federal Reserve policies and Middle East tensions. The Fed maintained interest rates but hinted at two rate cuts this year, while also reducing future rate cut expectations. Economic forecasts indicate increasing stagflation pressures, with GDP growth downgraded and inflation rates raised [2] - According to UBS's "2025 Global Wealth Report," the US is expected to add 379,000 millionaires in 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of the global total. The Americas saw a private wealth net worth growth of 11%. The Greater China region ranks first globally with 28.2% of the middle class having net assets between $100,000 and $1 million [2] - Guangzhou has implemented significant measures to stimulate the housing market by canceling "three limits" and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates. The city has been heavily reliant on land finance, and current pressures on local fiscal balance necessitate these actions [2] Group 2 - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the People's Bank of China announced eight major financial opening measures, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report database and a digital RMB international operation center [3] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a set of "1+6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the introduction of a third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market and support for unprofitable companies to go public [3] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a resurgence, driven by a 53% price increase in DDR4 memory in May, the largest since 2017, and advancements in integrated chip technology from the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics [3] Group 3 - NIO reported an expanded net loss attributable to shareholders and a rising debt-to-asset ratio in Q1, prompting concerns about its financial health. The company is undergoing self-transformation and management adjustments while planning to launch nine new models by 2025, although profitability remains a challenge [5] - The market price of Moutai has declined significantly since mid-May, with trading prices approaching 2,000 yuan. This decline is attributed to economic downturns, policy factors, and changing consumer preferences among younger generations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintains a patient approach while observing the potential impacts of tariffs under President Trump's policies, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5% [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve has not adjusted interest rates for six months, indicating a cautious stance as it monitors inflation and economic activity [1] - The Fed predicts that the personal consumption expenditure index, its preferred inflation measure, will rise from 2.1% to 3% by the end of 2025, reflecting increased inflation expectations [1] - The Fed forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with additional cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that tariffs could raise prices and pressure economic activity, with the impact depending on the final tariff levels [1][2] - Recent months have seen a restrained stance from the Fed, which has drawn sharp criticism from Trump, who has urged for lower interest rates [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has contributed to a slowdown in hiring, although the job market remains robust [6] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Growth Concerns - Powell has cautioned about the risk of "stagflation," where rising inflation coincides with economic slowdown, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8][9] - If the Fed raises rates to combat tariff-induced inflation, it risks stifling borrowing and further slowing the economy [9] - Conversely, lowering rates to stimulate the economy could exacerbate inflation [10] Group 4: Recent Developments in Tariff Policies - Trump has recently rolled back some of his most severe tariffs, easing costs for importers, which may mitigate price increases [11] - Despite some tariff reductions, a 10% comprehensive tariff remains on most imports, with certain tariffs still in effect for steel, aluminum, and automobiles [14] - Retailers like Walmart and Best Buy have warned of potential price increases due to tariffs, with the OECD projecting U.S. inflation could reach 4% by the end of 2025 [15]