Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential appreciation of the Chinese yuan to 6.0 within the next decade, exploring the motivations behind this shift from a historically stable exchange rate to a push for yuan appreciation [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Promoting Yuan Appreciation - Promoting a steady rise in the yuan can lower the costs of energy and raw material procurement, as China's industrial structure has evolved from low-end manufacturing to a more competitive mid-to-high-end manufacturing sector [3][4]. - The yuan's appreciation could significantly increase per capita GDP, as the current economic situation in China is undervalued compared to other countries, with a potential 10% appreciation leading to a 10% increase in GDP [4]. - Addressing the trade imbalance is crucial, as China's trade surplus reached $1 trillion, indicating strong competitiveness but also necessitating adjustments in trade structure [4][6]. Group 2: Motivations Behind Yuan Appreciation - The substantial trade surplus and resilient economic growth, even amidst global economic challenges, provide a stable foundation for yuan appreciation [6][8]. - The decline of the US dollar, which has entered a rate-cutting cycle and lost 8% of its value this year, contributes to a growing distrust in the dollar, prompting a shift towards the yuan [6][8]. - The increasing global demand for yuan payments, with China's manufacturing surpassing 30% of global output, supports the ongoing internationalization of the yuan, projected to rise from 5% to 15% market share by 2035 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has significant implications for both individual investors and the broader Chinese economy, with the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Individuals - Individuals holding USD deposits are experiencing negative returns due to the RMB's appreciation, as seen in the case of a resident who lost approximately 1,033 RMB on a USD deposit despite earning interest [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the RMB's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies, with one family saving around 17,000 RMB on exchange costs compared to earlier in the year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation is driven by a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting, particularly in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6]. - The recent trend of RMB appreciation is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, as it enhances the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets to foreign investors [7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - A stronger RMB is likely to lower import costs for raw materials and advanced technology, supporting China's economic transition from price competition to brand and technology diversification [8]. - Industries reliant on imports, such as energy and agriculture, as well as sectors with significant USD liabilities, are expected to benefit from the RMB's appreciation [8]. Group 4: Capital Market Effects - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to attract capital inflows, benefiting various asset classes including stocks and bonds, through valuation enhancement, increased foreign investment, and improved market confidence [9]. - A 0.1 percentage point increase in the RMB's value could lead to a 3% to 5% increase in stock valuations, making RMB-denominated assets more appealing to foreign investors [9].

今天，A股三大指数集体小幅上扬。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.47%，深证成指、创业板指数分别上涨0.33%、0.30%。沪深两市成交额达到19245 亿元，较昨日放量443亿元。 整个市场有3773只个股上涨，1473只个股下跌，个股涨跌幅的中位数为上涨0.54%。 大盘方面，没有太多要说的，达哥在最近两三天的文章中都阐述过，即观察上证指数反弹至9-10月上升趋势线附近时的情况。 今天，上证指数日K线七连涨，年内仅次于4月8日-17日的八连涨，未来两天，该纪录会被打破吗？值得观察。 资金层面，有不少积极因素出现。 其次是大资金持续流入股市。据Wind数据，主要宽基指数整体资金申赎净流入统计显示，最近一个月中证A500净流入872亿元。 因此，资金层面对市场有一定的托底作用。 首先是人民币持续升值。今天离岸人民币兑美元盘中破"7"，截至16：00，最高至6.996。 人民币升值，利好哪些板块呢？达哥认为，大致有几类。 一是外资扫货、外资偏好及外资配置类，包括金融、食品饮料、医药生物、家电、科技成长等； 二是进口依赖型行业，包括造纸、有色金属（矿）、石油炼化、基础化工等； 三是减轻债务压力类，包括航空运输等； 四是 ...

Core Insights - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate broke the psychological barrier of 7.0 on December 25, 2025, reaching a low of 6.99853, marking the first time since 2024 [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is driven by strong domestic economic fundamentals and external factors, including the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate showed a trend of "initial decline followed by a rise" throughout 2025, with an increase of 2827 basis points (3.9%) for onshore RMB and 3305 basis points (4.5%) for offshore RMB [2] Market Response - The stock market reacted positively to the currency appreciation, with A-shares rising collectively, particularly benefiting sectors like paper, machinery, and military equipment [4] - The paper industry, heavily reliant on imported raw materials, stands to gain from reduced procurement costs due to RMB appreciation [4] Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation include: - Import-dependent industries such as paper and aviation, which will see cost reductions [5] - Domestic consumption-related sectors including agriculture, light manufacturing, and consumer electronics [5] - Service industries like utilities, transportation, and cross-border e-commerce [5] Industry Leaders - Leading companies in the paper industry are gaining attention: - Bohui Paper is advancing a "pulp-paper integration" strategy to enhance self-sufficiency in raw materials [6] - Wuzhou Special Paper, a major player in specialty paper, will benefit from lower raw material costs due to RMB appreciation [6] - Sun Paper, a leader in pulp-paper integration, has significant raw material self-sufficiency due to its operations in Laos [6]

12月25日，离岸市场人民币汇率持续走强，升破7.0大关，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061，美元指数跌破98。多家机构认为，2026年 人民币有望继续升值。人民币"更值钱了"，对普通人来说，出国旅游、留学、海淘更省钱了。 记者注意到，中国外汇交易中心12月25日受权公布人民币对美元的市场汇价，即人民币对美元市场中间价为7.0392，上调79个基点。 据梳理，本轮人民币强升值可追溯至今年10月。自10月中旬以来，美元趋弱下、人民币升值，引发市场关注。 | 机构 | 预测区间 | 核心驱动因素 | | --- | --- | --- | | . | | | | 中信证券 | 7.0附近 | 年底结汇、政策防单边预期 | | 华泰证券 | | 2026年底6.82 美元反弹有限、人民币资产低估 | | 瑞银 | 2026年中6.9 | 中国出口仍非常有竞争力 | | 高盛 2026年底6.85 汇率+利率下行提升资产定价 | | | | 德意志银行 2026年底6.7 | | 美元"弱周期",人民币国际化加速 | 对出口企业压力大，人民币升值会让"中国制造"在国际市场上变贵，可能影响订单和利 ...

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 12月25日，外汇市场迎来重要里程碑！离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0关口。截至12月25日10时29分， 离岸人民币兑美元汇率报6.9999，较前收盘价上涨77个基点，盘中最高报6.9965，创下自2024年10月以 来14个月新高；在岸人民币兑美元报7.0068，升破7.01关口，日内上涨92个基点。人民币升破7.00关 口，标志着人民币汇率进入新一轮升值周期。 从全年走势看，截至12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元年内累计升值4.6%，在岸人民币累计升值4%；同期 美元指数跌幅逼近10%，徘徊于97.7附近，为人民币资产吸引力提升奠定了基础。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛指出，市场做多人民币汇率的热情被重新点燃，这一趋势有望在未来一 段时间内延续。 "近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共 同作用的结果。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，市场预期美联储将继续降息，这将 进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 国泰海通证券研究报告指出，人民币汇率破7具有基本面和政策端的双重基础。不过也需要关注基本面 边际变 ...

Market Overview - The Christmas holiday has led to a one-day closure of U.S. stock and bond markets, with major European stock markets also closed [1] - Asian stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.13% to 50,407.79 points [1] - The offshore RMB broke the 7.0 mark against the USD for the first time since September 2024, indicating a strengthening of the Chinese currency [1][2] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen rebounded to around 155.8, supported by comments from the Bank of Japan's governor regarding approaching the 2% inflation target [1][5] - The offshore RMB's appreciation is attributed to increased market capital inflows and demand for currency settlement, driven by expectations of a shift towards a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy [2] Bond Market - The yield on Japan's 2-year government bonds rose to 1.125%, marking a new high since 1996, due to weak demand in recent auctions [1][8] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell below $4,500 per ounce after reaching a historical high of $4,525.18, with analysts remaining optimistic about future price targets [1][11] - Silver maintained a strong performance, fluctuating around $71.80 per ounce after hitting a historical high of $72.70, with a year-to-date increase of 149% [1][14]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise collectively on December 25, with the paper industry experiencing significant gains, highlighted by stocks such as Hengda New Materials and Bohui Paper reaching their daily limit up [2] - The offshore RMB broke the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time in 2024, peaking at 6.9962, which enhances purchasing power and reduces procurement costs for dollar-denominated raw materials in the paper industry [2] - Daitong Securities believes the paper industry is benefiting from a combination of "supply optimization, cost support, and policy protection," with a mild recovery in demand and resilient packaging paper demand [2] Group 2 - The supply side is improving due to production cuts and the winding down of capacity, which enhances the supply-demand balance in the paper industry [2] - The cost side is supported by rising pulp prices, which stabilize product pricing and enhance the profitability of integrated pulp and paper companies [2] - The valuation of the paper sector is at historical lows, and with expectations of industry recovery by 2026, the investment value is becoming more prominent [2]

Group 1 - Institutions ranked 35 stocks today, with net purchases in 16 stocks and net sales in 19 stocks. The top three stocks with the highest net purchases were Hainan Development (289 million), Western Materials (244 million), and Chaojie Co., Ltd. (226 million) [1] - Chaojie Co., Ltd. saw a net purchase of 226 million from four institutions on the 3rd. The company is actively expanding its customer base in the commercial aerospace sector and has made substantial progress in acquiring new customer orders, expecting to enter into batch cooperation with new clients starting in Q1 next year [2] - The company holds an 8.3% stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace, which successfully conducted its first flight test of the Zhuque-3 rocket in December [3] Group 2 - The onshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.01 mark, reaching a new high since September 27, 2024. The offshore RMB also surpassed 7.0 for the first time since the end of September 2024. This appreciation of the RMB is expected to alleviate the procurement cost pressures for industries with high import dependence, such as aviation and paper manufacturing, while also potentially enhancing profit elasticity due to foreign exchange gains [4] - Wuzhou Special Paper focuses on producing specialty paper for medical and food packaging [5]

12月24日晚间至25日清晨，离岸人民币兑美元汇率两度突破7.0心理关口，在岸人民币也逼近这一关键点位，引发市场强烈关注。这场岁末年初的 汇率"升值风暴"正在深刻影响着外贸企业的经营决策。 • 内在支撑：中国经济展现强大韧性与投资吸引力 值得注意的是，年末特有的"结汇潮"效应进一步推高了人民币汇率。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示："随着春节临近，企业结汇需求集中释 放，形成季节性升值压力。而持续走强的汇率又加速了前期积压结汇需求的出清。"历史数据印证，春节前银行代客结售汇顺差通常达到年度峰 值。 展望后市，多数机构持乐观态度： → 短期：可能出现技术性波动 → 中长期：升值趋势明确，或将步入"6时代" "现在货款一到账就立即结汇，大额订单更是分秒必争。"浙江外贸商丁先生坦言，近期人民币的持续升值迫使他们改变了以往的操作习惯。上周 一笔结汇业务就因汇率波动直接损失数万元利润，"每笔账算下来都让人心疼不已"。厦门外贸经理刘女士也证实，其公司已采取"即到即结"的应 对策略。 市场分析指出，本轮人民币升值呈现"内外双驱动"特征： • 外部因素：美元指数持续走弱创造有利环境 德意志银行预测： 2026年底：人民币兑美元 ...