Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - Recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by foreign trade enterprises' settlement behavior rather than domestic investors or central bank guidance[2][3][4]. - The "swap premium" indicator, reflecting the central bank's attitude towards maintaining the exchange rate, is currently at a low level (+200 pips), indicating a smoothing of exchange rate fluctuations rather than an active push for appreciation[12][11]. - The "Shanghai gold premium" remains elevated at 500-1000 pips, suggesting a divergence in domestic investors' recognition of the current exchange rate, indicating they are not the main drivers of recent appreciation[19][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The widening of the US-China interest rate differential is unusual during the recent RMB appreciation, primarily due to rising US Treasury yields driven by credit weakness rather than economic strength[26][10]. - The RMB's recent appreciation benefits from two factors: the discount on US dollar assets requiring higher yields for compensation and high interest rates suppressing credit expansion amid recession fears[26][10]. - Future RMB exchange rate pricing frameworks must consider the variable of US dollar credit, as the traditional significance of the US-China interest rate differential may no longer apply effectively[26][10]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential disruptions from US tariffs and increasing domestic economic pressures, which could impact the RMB's stability[7][32].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has risen due to the US inflation data being lower than expected, which will drive the silver price to be strong in the future [1]. - The core driver of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is the US Treasury bond interest expenditure. This year's interest - rate cut is crucial for maintaining the US dollar's credit. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September and December interest - rate meetings. It is believed that Fed Chairman Powell will make a dovish statement in the June interest - rate meeting and give guidance on the interest - rate cut rhythm in the second half of the year [2]. - For precious metals, especially silver prices, a long - position thinking should be maintained. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 774 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8659 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Gold - On June 16, 2025, Shanghai Gold rose 0.64% to 798.02 yuan/gram, COMEX gold rose 0.45% to 3468.10 US dollars/ounce. Au(T + D) rose 1.35% to 790.86 yuan/gram, and London gold rose 1.30% to 3435.35 US dollars/ounce [1][3]. - From June 12 - 13, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, with increases of 1.36%, 17.91%, and 0.29% respectively. SHFE gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and precipitation funds also increased, with increases of 1.17%, 34.24%, 2.43%, 1.85%, and 3.63% respectively [6]. Silver - On June 16, 2025, Shanghai Silver rose 0.24% to 8839.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver rose 0.26% to 36.45 US dollars/ounce. Ag(T + D) rose 0.26% to 8793.00 yuan/kilogram, while London silver fell 0.29% to 36.08 US dollars/ounce [1][3]. - From June 12 - 13, 2025, COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 0.11%, while open interest and inventory increased by 6.69% and 0.05% respectively. SHFE silver's trading volume increased by 25.52%, while closing price, open interest, inventory, and precipitation funds decreased, with decreases of 0.32%, 3.15%, 1.31%, and 3.45% respectively [6]. Other Related Data - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.41%, and the US dollar index was 98.27. The Dow Jones Index fell 1.79%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.30% [1]. - The VIX Index rose 15.54%, the London FTSE 100 fell 0.39%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.89% [3]. Group 4: US Economic Data Inflation Data - The US May CPI year - on - year was 2.4%, lower than the expected and previous value of 2.5%. The core CPI year - on - year was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% [1]. - The US May PPI year - on - year was 2.6%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%. The core PPI year - on - year was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% [1]. Employment Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000 [1].

Market Overview - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth since 2020, with a current market capitalization of nearly $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total cryptocurrency market valued at approximately $3.4 trillion[15][18]. - Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 62.8% and 25.5% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, respectively[18][22]. Drivers of Growth - The growth of stablecoins is driven by their advantages in payment settlements, including efficiency, cost savings, and risk mitigation compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies[15][22]. - Increased geopolitical risks and economic instability in emerging markets have created a demand for stablecoins as alternative currencies, with countries like Turkey seeing stablecoin purchases amounting to nearly 4% of their GDP[30][32]. Regulatory Developments - The passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the US marks a significant step towards establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance market development and attract more foreign investment[6][22][35]. - The act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve of compliant assets for every stablecoin issued, which is crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market[38][41]. Impact on Global Currency and Assets - Stablecoins are expected to strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system, potentially challenging the effectiveness of monetary policy in countries with unstable currencies[41][43]. - While the expansion of the stablecoin market may increase demand for US Treasury bonds, its overall impact on short-term bonds is limited, and it does not alleviate the pressure on long-term bonds due to persistent fiscal deficits[45][48]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in regions like mainland China poses risks to the stablecoin market's growth and adoption[50]. - The reliance of stablecoins on the US dollar's credit may not be sufficient to counteract the potential damage to dollar credibility amid global de-dollarization trends[32][49].

Group 1: Dollar Credit and Economic Dynamics - The recent high interest rate environment has led to a significant cooling of private credit expansion in the U.S., indicating a fragile balance for the dollar[1] - The correlation between global capital inflow and the dollar index is weak, primarily due to the mirrored relationship between U.S. capital inflow and trade deficits[6] - U.S. residents' net worth is positively correlated with the dollar index, with stock net worth showing a stronger correlation than housing net worth[21] Group 2: Risks and Policy Challenges - There is a notable tail risk of a "debt-recession" spiral if economic policies do not adjust significantly, particularly under the current high interest rates[26] - The U.S. government’s pursuit of trade barriers and a weaker dollar could harm resident welfare and exacerbate the tail risks associated with high bond yields[32] - The ongoing high interest rates and low growth environment raise questions about the sustainability of government debt, potentially leading to a "debt-recession" spiral[34]

报告导读： 随着近期美元信用折价导致的高利率环境持续，美国私人信贷扩张明显降温， 美元来到一个脆弱边界的紧平衡，美国当局需要在远景目标（长期贸易回流）与短期风险 （潜在债务危机）之间重新平衡，一旦政策端对于基本面恶化的响应速度不及时、态度不 彻底，那么美元资产的尾部风险不容忽视。反之亦然。 过去模式：高增长、高利率 — > 强美元 逻辑上，一国汇率强弱理应取决于 全球资本对该国货币的持有意愿（资本净流入） 。 但我们拆解美国的 国际收支平衡表发现，全球资本净流入与美元指数的相关性并不强，本质在于美国的资本净流入与贸易净 流出是镜像关系（孪生赤字）， 很难说资本净流入是由于对于美元资产吸引力更强，还是贸易竞争力更 差； 进一步看结构，我们发现美元指数与 股权直接投资 的净流入相关性最强，最近几年与 债权证券投资 的净 流入相关性更强。说明 美元强弱本质上取决于美国投资回报率预期（高息美元、增长预期） 。 美元信用的内在支撑：私人部门财富扩张 美国经济的本质驱动是 美国私人部门资产负债表的良性扩张，带来净资产的上涨。 而净资产的上涨进一 步抬升增长预期和利率水平，带来全球资本的持续涌入。 因此我们发现，美国居民净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The status of US Treasury bonds as a "pricing anchor" is declining, challenging the effectiveness of traditional investment strategies, leading to a global rebalancing towards non-US and alternative assets [1][18]. Group 1: Concerns Over US Treasury Bonds - The long-term issues with US Treasury bonds stem from concerns about both demand and supply, influenced by changes in dollar credit and expectations of potential bond issuance due to fiscal deficits [3][4]. - The contribution of tariff revenues to US fiscal income is minimal, with tariffs projected to account for only 1.6% of total fiscal revenue in 2024, while net interest expenses have risen significantly [6][9]. - The perception of US Treasury bonds as a safe haven is eroding due to geopolitical tensions and the use of dollar and Treasury bonds as negotiation tools in trade discussions [9][10]. Group 2: Impact of Domestic Policies - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House raises concerns about increased fiscal deficits, potentially adding $3 trillion over ten years, which could exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand for Treasury bonds [13][18]. - The Trump administration's spending cuts have fallen short of targets, with only $175 billion cut against a goal of $2 trillion, indicating a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline [15][18]. Group 3: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The current US administration's departure from traditional values and geopolitical alliances undermines the foundational credibility of the dollar, which relies on trust in US technological and military superiority [16][17]. - Recent challenges to US technological and military dominance could significantly impact the dollar's strength and the sustainability of its fiscal and current account deficits [17][18]. Group 4: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The decline in the status of US Treasury bonds as a pricing anchor has led to a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, with a notable shift from the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to alternatives like gold and cryptocurrencies [20][24]. - Global funds are increasingly diversifying into non-US assets, with central banks raising their gold reserves significantly, indicating a trend towards alternative asset classes [24][26]. - The performance of alternative assets has outpaced traditional stock-bond combinations, with gold and Bitcoin showing substantial gains in 2025 [26][24].

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in the US is weakening, and the conflict between immigrants and authorities in Los Angeles has occurred. The current expectations of the Fed's monetary policy and the impact on the US dollar's credit will support the prices of gold and silver [2] - The non - farm payroll data in the US, although exceeding expectations, shows a significant weakening in overall new employment, which further supports the Fed's entry into a new round of interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [2] - The Los Angeles immigration conflict event intensifies the internal social contradictions in the US, further impacting the US dollar's credit and boosting the gold price [3] - It is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking in the precious metals strategy. Under the background of the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy expectations, the performance of the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 1.09% to 774.18 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.62% to 8808.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.29% to 3336.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 36.19 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 99.08 [2] - In the table of price changes, for example, Au(T + D) closed at 779.56 yuan/gram, down 1.43 yuan (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day; Ag(T + D) closed at 8839.00 yuan/kilogram, up 383.00 yuan (4.53%) [4] Non - farm Payroll Data - The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in May was 139,000, slightly exceeding the expected 130,000 but lower than the previous value of 177,000. The new non - farm payrolls in March and April were revised down by a total of 95,000 [2] Market Outlook - The weakening of overall new employment supports the Fed's entry into a new round of interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [2] - The Los Angeles immigration conflict event impacts the US dollar's credit and boosts the gold price [3] Strategy Suggestion - Maintain a long - position thinking in the precious metals strategy. Silver will perform more strongly under the expected marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, etc. of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, and Au(T + D) have different degrees of changes. For example, the trading volume of SHFE gold increased by 39.03% [5] - For silver, the closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, etc. of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and Ag(T + D) also have different changes. For example, the trading volume of SHFE silver increased by 305.85% [5] Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate [11]

Group 1: U.S. Soft Power and Global Influence - The U.S. has built its soft power post-World War II through political values, technological innovation, cultural appeal, and legitimate foreign policy, gaining significant influence in creating a new international order [1] - In the last decade, U.S. soft power has been severely impacted by the rise of unilateralism, protectionism, and cultural conservatism, leading to a decline in its international image and trust in its values and policies, particularly during Trump's presidency [1][2] - Trump's "America First" policy has led to a rejection of multilateralism, with the U.S. ranking lowest in support for multilateralism among 193 UN member states, which has resulted in a breakdown of international trade systems and supply chains [3][4] Group 2: Economic and Trade Policies - Trump's administration has adopted a confrontational approach to economic relations, exemplified by increasing tariffs, which has disrupted the multilateral free trade system and caused significant supply chain issues globally [3][4] - A Pew Research Center survey indicated that in 21 relatively affluent countries, 10 experienced a decline in favorable views of the U.S. by 6 percentage points or more, with Australia, Israel, South Africa, and Germany seeing the largest drops [4] - Trump's trade policies, including high tariffs, threaten the global trade system, which could lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar and weaken its value and credit [8][9] Group 3: Financial Stability and Dollar Credit - The U.S. has maintained financial hegemony through the dollar, which has been supported by its historical ties to gold and later oil, but this trust is now at risk due to increasing national debt and fiscal deficits [7][8] - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with rising interest costs impacting the country's creditworthiness, leading to higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds [8][9] - Trump's policies have contributed to a weakening dollar, with long-term Treasury yields rising above 4%, indicating market uncertainty and increasing risks to dollar credit [9] Group 4: Impact on Scientific Research and Education - Trump's administration has significantly cut funding for scientific research, with the National Science Foundation's new project funding dropping nearly 50% compared to the previous year, and the NIH's indirect costs being reduced from 40% to 15% [11][12] - The administration's focus on "useful research" has led to a decline in support for basic research, which is crucial for long-term innovation and competitiveness [12][17] - The reduction in federal funding has resulted in layoffs and program cuts at major universities, with institutions like Johns Hopkins and Harvard facing significant financial constraints [16][17] Group 5: Broader Implications for U.S. Soft Power - The ongoing conflict between Trump's administration and academic institutions reflects a broader ideological battle between conservative and progressive values, impacting the U.S.'s ability to attract and retain top talent in science and technology [15][17] - The erosion of support for scientific research and education under Trump's policies threatens the U.S.'s historical leadership in global science and technology, potentially diminishing its soft power [18]

更何况，最近靠着一招反复折腾关税操控资本市场，带着自己的亲朋好友们早早埋伏，没少赚美刀啊。 中美谈的是有90天的缓冲期，且还早着呢，不必着急早早的出结果。 最近这段时间暂停加征关税，可以让美国国内囤一波货，懂王也能缓缓。压力没那么大了，就可以换个 姿势作妖了，东大这边没有放松稀土出口，美国那边也在想办法加筹码，只是我认为不给中国学生签证 其实真的毫无意义，留学生的名声到底要怎么挽回来呢？董大姐私下里对留学生的评价，4+4风波，美 帝还真以为这一招能拿捏谁，那也是错判了行情。 之前懂王就把白宫的华裔幕僚都赶走了，因为他们提供了错误的讯息，这倒不是这帮高华们有意误导， 实在是这帮人无非是各种型号的章家敦。傲慢和偏见让他们根本看不清中国，只是一味地揣摩懂王的心 思，在那里胡说八道，等懂王发现上当了，已经掉坑里了。 现在无非是从一个坑掉另一个坑，凭空造出来的牌没什么作用，只能拖呗。 懂王那边着急的是推自己的大美丽法案。就这个法案，现在引发全美上下一片骚动，法案1000多页，估 计没几个人有耐心看完。不过网上有很多关于法案的解读，我看了半天，核心就四个字：劫贫济富，堵 死穷人占国家便宜的各种路子，让富人缴更少的税，让美 ...