Investment Rating - The report indicates an expectation that the US effective tariff rate will settle closer to 18% rather than the current 13.4% [1] Core Insights - The new tariff measures are projected to raise the average effective US tariff rate to 16.9%, significantly higher than the 2.3% at the end of 2024, but below the 22.4% in force on April 2 [10] - The report highlights that the effective tariff increases scheduled for August 1 will include a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [5][17] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments are expected to have a direct impact on global GDP growth, with a projected drag increasing from 0.5 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points under the new tariff regime [23] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The effective US tariff rates are expected to increase significantly, with specific rates such as 50% on copper and reciprocal tariffs on various countries [5][10] - The report outlines that the effective tariff rates for several countries will revert to the April "Liberation Day" levels if no new tariff letters are issued [14] Economic Impact - The report estimates that the direct GDP impact for the US from the new tariffs could be around -0.8 percentage points, with emerging markets in Asia, particularly those excluding China, facing the highest exposure [24][32] - Global GDP growth is projected to expand at a sub-potential rate of 1.8%, with a notable downgrade in expectations since the US election [18] Sector-Specific Insights - The report discusses potential sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, indicating that these sectors are under active investigation and may face significant tariff increases [15][17] - Exemptions for certain sectors still imply lower effective tariff rates for many countries, but the risk of higher tariffs remains elevated due to ongoing investigations [17]

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced high tariffs on goods from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [1][3] - The tariffs have triggered strong international backlash, with leaders from affected countries condemning the U.S. actions as humiliating and unfair [3][4] - The financial markets reacted negatively, with significant drops in major indices and stock prices of Japanese automakers [6] Group 2 - The "Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by Trump has led to increased logistics costs for Chinese e-commerce and heightened tax burdens for semiconductor companies [8] - China's export controls on rare earth elements have impacted the U.S. military supply chain, highlighting vulnerabilities in U.S. reliance on Chinese resources [9] - The global trade landscape is shifting, with trade volumes in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East growing faster than the global average, indicating a move towards a multipolar trade environment [11]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the escalation of the trade dispute between the EU and the US, particularly regarding the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports by President Trump [1][2] - The EU is currently deliberating on how to respond to the US tariffs, with a focus on maintaining unity among member states while considering both negotiation and retaliation strategies [1][2] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated a preference for negotiation, extending the suspension of retaliatory measures against US tariffs until August 1 [1][3] Group 2 - European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman Bernd Lange has expressed skepticism about the EU's approach, advocating for a stronger stance against Trump's tariffs, which he deems unreasonable [2] - French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the need for the EU to demonstrate its commitment to defending European interests, suggesting the use of all available tools, including countermeasures [2] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has stated that if negotiations fail, decisive countermeasures must be prepared to protect European jobs and businesses, although he does not advocate for immediate action [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has surged to its highest level since 2011, driven by investor demand as an alternative to gold and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs disrupting global metal supplies, with a year-to-date increase of 35% compared to gold's 28% gain [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) have spiked, while silver miner ETFs like Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and ETFMG Prime Junior Silver ETF (SILJ) have reached multi-year highs, indicating leveraged gains in a rising metal market [2] - The renewed threat of trade wars, particularly the announcement of sweeping tariff measures by President Trump, has led to increased physical buying of silver, further accelerating its rally [3] - Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's trade policies enhance silver's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset during financial and political instability [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market is facing a sustained supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, primarily driven by surging industrial demand from sectors like green energy and electronics [5] - Approximately 50% of silver's total demand comes from industrial applications, with the remaining 30% from jewelry, silverware, coins, and medals [6] - The global push for green energy, increasing demand in 5G technology, and a rebound in global computer shipments are expected to continue boosting silver demand, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles [7] Group 3: Price Influencers - The spread between London spot prices and September futures in New York remains unusually wide, contributing to bullish momentum in the silver market [8] - The weakness of the U.S. dollar has made dollar-denominated assets like silver more attractive to foreign buyers, further fueling the rally [9]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Brazil's response to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian metal products, which includes retaliatory measures against U.S. soybean and corn imports [1][3] - The U.S. claims that Brazil's judicial processes harm American business interests, while Brazil's government views this as interference in its internal affairs, particularly following investigations into former President Bolsonaro [3] - Brazil's trade data contradicts U.S. claims of trade imbalance, with U.S. exports to Brazil reaching $78.2 billion in 2024 and a surplus of $12.7 billion [3] Group 2 - Brazil has been reducing its dependency on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. dropping from 23% in 2018 to 16% in 2024, while soybean exports to China have increased by 47% over three years [5] - The BRICS nations have seen their internal trade exceed $1.8 trillion, with Brazil's currency settlements with India and South Africa tripling year-on-year [5] - The U.S. agricultural sector may face significant losses, with predictions indicating a potential 5% loss in U.S. soybean market share to Brazil, resulting in over $1.2 billion in annual losses for Midwestern farmers [5] Group 3 - Brazil's Senate Foreign Relations Committee has initiated an assessment of trade relations with the U.S., aiming to coordinate tariffs with Mercosur countries by October [7] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to the loss of 12,000 jobs in the U.S. South American region [7]

银价上涨的背后是现货市场供应紧张和借贷成本激增。一个月期银价借贷的隐含年化成本已跳升至6%以上，远高于通常接近零的水平。 美国贸易政策担忧也进一步推高了银价，墨西哥作为最大的银生产国和美国市场的关键供应商，面临高达30%的关税威胁。此外，作为避险资产 和工业用金属，银价受益于地缘政治冲突、贸易紧张局势以及太阳能板等工业需求的推动。 现货市场供需失衡加剧 银价攀升至近十四年高位，投资者在金价接近历史纪录的背景下寻求替代性贵金属投资。 周一，现货白银延续了上周4%的涨势，日内一度上涨1.9%，突破每盎司39美元至近十四年高位，今年以来累计涨35%，超过黄金28%的涨幅。 银价需求目前受益于贸易战威胁，以及黄金价格对许多投资者来说过于昂贵。 墨西哥面临的关税威胁尤其引人关注。据央视新闻，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输 美产品征收30%的关税。 作为全球最大的银生产国，墨西哥是美国市场的关键供应商。尽管《美墨加协定》暂时将银价排除在关税清单之外，但市场担心这一豁免可能不 会持续。 伦敦现货价格与纽约9月期货合约之间的价差异常宽泛，类似于年初特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

7月9日，特朗普突然宣布对巴西加征50%的进口关税。这一消息令人震惊，因为在今年4月，特朗普就曾针对全球范围内的贸易进行加税时，巴西的关税仅 为10%。然而，现在巴西面临的关税跃升至全球最高的50%，这一突如其来的决定让全球经济界议论纷纷，许多人纷纷猜测特朗普此举的真正动机是什么。 更加引人注目的是巴西总统卢拉的反应。他不仅坚决拒绝了特朗普的加税提案，而且直言不讳地表示，巴西完全不依赖美国，照样能够生存下去。这番话显 示了卢拉不畏强权、敢于直面挑战的姿态，让全球媒体纷纷将目光聚焦于巴西和特朗普之间的复杂博弈。 实际上，特朗普的关税政策最初主要针对那些与美国有贸易顺差的国家，他希望通过加税手段来减少美国的贸易逆差。过去15年里，美国与巴西之间的贸易 顺差已超过4000亿美元，意味着美国大量商品以零关税进入巴西市场，赚取了丰厚利润。然而，现在特朗普将巴西的进口关税从10%提高到50%，这一调整 几乎使巴西的进口成本暴涨，成为全球贸易中最高的税率。这使得全球贸易界一时困惑不解，特朗普到底是想达成什么样的目的？ 从背后的动机来看，特朗普此举很大程度上带有明显的私怨。特朗普与巴西前总统博尔索纳罗的关系非常亲密，两人在政 ...

特朗普还表示，对欧盟和墨西哥30%的关税将独立于所有行业关税。这意味着美国对钢铁和铝进口征收 50%的关税、对汽车进口征收25%的关税的做法将继续保留。 欧盟和墨西哥在回应中称关税是不公平和具有破坏性的，同时承诺在最后期限前继续与美国谈判，以达 成更广泛的贸易协议。 欧盟一直希望与美国达成一项全面贸易协议。特朗普在致欧盟的信函中要求欧洲放弃关税。他写 道："欧盟对美国完全开放市场准入，并且不对我们征收关税，以减少巨额贸易逆差。" 【白银期货最新行情】 7月14日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 9207 2.11% 1093003 448095 数据显示，7月14日上海白银现货价格报价9168元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（9207元/千克）贴水39 元/千克。 美国总统特朗普上周六(7月12日)威胁从8月1日起对从墨西哥和欧盟进口的商品征收30%的关税，此前他 与这两个美国最大的贸易伙伴进行了数周谈判，但未能达成一项全面的贸易协议。贸易战升级激怒了美 国盟友，也让投资者感到不安。 特朗普周六在Truth Social上公布分别发给欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula vo ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, the market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; the market interest rate consolidates, the Treasury bond rebounds slightly, and it is recommended to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink, and attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has spurred long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, the market risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded to boost the gold price; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased, and attention should be paid to this week's CPI data; it is expected that gold will maintain a high - level shock [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is steadily increasing, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; the port inventory remains at a high level, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - The USDA monthly report on US soybeans has a negative impact, the growth of US soybeans is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continuous exports; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [7] - The possibility of new US sanctions supports oil prices, PX continues to destock and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA weakens and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials have recovered, but the supply - demand of MEG weakens, and the upside space of the market is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious. Farmers in northern regions cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while southern regions stabilize the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; the weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference gradually widens; it is expected that domestic hog prices will maintain small - scale fluctuations [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond - Data shows China's economic resilience, market risk - aversion sentiment eases, hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rate consolidates, Treasury bond rebounds slightly, hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Black - "Anti - involution" may shrink finished steel supply, pay attention to policy implementation; old - city renovation expectation spurs long - position funds, coke price increase by coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures escalate trade war, market risk - aversion boosts gold price; Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation decreases, pay attention to CPI data, gold to maintain high - level shock [4] Logs - Spot log price is stable, expected arrival volume to decrease, supply pressure eases, average daily outbound volume above 60,000 cubic meters, pay attention to futures delivery impact [5] Natural Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign areas increases, raw material price may decline, port inventory is high, weak fundamentals can't support price rise [6] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - USDA report on US soybeans is negative, US soybeans grow well, South American soybeans export continuously; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans in July, oil mill operating rate high, pick - up volume down, soybean meal inventory up, soybean meal to fluctuate weakly [7] Oil - Related Chemicals - US sanctions may support oil prices, PX destocks with oil price fluctuations; PTA supply - demand weakens, follows cost in short term; MEG supply - demand weakens, upside space restricted [8] Hogs - Market supply - demand stalemate, northern farmers cut prices, southern regions adjust supply, weak consumer demand restricts price, hog prices to fluctuate slightly [9]