证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference on the macroeconomic landscape [2][4] - It highlights the expected changes in dollar liquidity and the reasons behind the recent strength of the Renminbi [4][5] - The article emphasizes the anticipated shift in global liquidity favoring AH shares and the revaluation of Renminbi assets, alongside the potential for a bull-bear transition in the US stock market [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis includes projections for the agricultural product market, questioning whether a global upcycle is beginning and identifying trading opportunities in grains, oils, cotton, sugar, and live pigs [10] - It estimates that the reallocation of household assets could bring approximately 5.4 to 12.0 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the A-share market by 2030 [12] - The potential incremental funds from insurance capital entering the A-share market are projected to be around 6.0 to 9.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [13]

比特币领跌的时候，市场到底在害怕什么，说白了，就是在问一句：当屏幕上一串红色数字冲在最前面 时，是谁先慌了，是电脑里的曲线，还是屏幕外面那批人的心。很多人习惯把比特币看成一个单独的投 机品，其实每次它当"跌幅第一"的时候，背后都是一整片市场情绪一起被按下去了，只不过它跑得最 快、摔得也最早。 这一次更微妙的地方在于：消息面看起来挺体面，监管更清晰，有机构把它写进报表，立法讨论方向稳 定，名校基金也拿出真金白银配置，组合在一起像一盘利好拼盘。可价格的选择，是从高位拐头向下。 信息在往上堆，曲线在往下走，中间那段"错位感"，就是本轮比特币领跌真正勾出的问题：图上的线究 竟有多大话语权，水面下那股资金又准备流向哪里。 图上的线在亮红灯，不是"迷信"，是习惯被叠加出来 在技术派的世界里，比特币从来不是孤立的一串数字，而是一整群人集体操作之后留下的轨迹。每一次 恐慌抛售、追高加仓、被动止损，最后都会被压缩进一条价格曲线里。久而久之，这条曲线就有了节奏 感，有了被人反复研究的技术节奏。 有研究者把几轮完整大周期摊开，从一轮极端低点到同轮极端高点，一段段去量时间，很意外地发现： 从底到顶，大约都是一百五十多天左右。上一些周 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant downward trend in November, contrasting sharply with the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.23% [1][2] - Defensive sectors such as banking and textiles performed relatively well, while growth sectors like technology and automotive faced substantial declines, with the computer industry down by 5.26% [1][2] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - A notable cooling in global artificial intelligence investment themes has directly impacted the performance of growth sectors, initiated by a significant pullback in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a maximum drop of 7.37% in November [2][3] - Domestic economic recovery momentum remains insufficient, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.0, and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises [3][4] - The tightening of global liquidity conditions has also exerted pressure on risk assets, with U.S. non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, leading to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][4] Market Behavior and Trends - As the year-end approaches, institutional investors are adopting strategies to lock in profits and preserve performance, leading to a shift from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation defensive stocks, resulting in significant market structure differentiation [4][5] - The overall market turnover has decreased from around 2 trillion to approximately 1.7 trillion, indicating reduced liquidity and increased volatility in individual stocks [4][5] Investment Strategy and Outlook - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, balancing stable cash flow from defensive sectors like banking and utilities with increased exposure to high-growth areas such as energy storage and military industries [6][7] - The energy storage sector is expected to grow over 40% due to rising demand and policy support, while the military sector benefits from ongoing national defense modernization efforts [6][7]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing ongoing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading around key levels, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy and the impact of U.S. stock market adjustments are key concerns for market direction [1][2] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on the day of the December Federal Reserve meeting may serve as a critical point for global risk appetite [2] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with slowing job additions and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while persistent inflation complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making [2] - The recent adjustment in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the tech sector, has led to a reassessment of AI investment narratives, revealing doubts about capital expenditure effectiveness and valuation pressures [3] - The A-share technology sector is particularly affected by the U.S. market's downturn, with significant declines in semiconductor and AI-related industries [3] Group 3 - The domestic economy is characterized by stronger price recovery than demand improvement, with mixed signals from various economic indicators [4] - Despite some positive signs, such as a rise in October CPI and a halt in PPI's negative growth, there are concerns about the low growth rate of social financing and a decline in real estate sales [4] - The government continues to implement "bottom-line" monetary and fiscal policies, including an expansion of technology innovation loans and early issuance of special bonds, although the overall stimulus expectations remain limited [4] Group 4 - The market outlook suggests continued volatility with a potential for stabilization, awaiting key decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference and clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [5] - The current market adjustment may provide opportunities for mid-term positioning, especially if the market experiences overshooting [5]

11月19日，日韩股市走出V型走势并飘红，截至10:28，日经225指数涨0.55%，东证指数涨0.73%。 韩国股市19日同样拉升，韩国KOSPI指数跌幅一度扩大至2%，目前涨约0.01%。现代重工跌超3%，SK海力士、三星电子跌约1%。 个股方面，受隔夜美股科技股大跌影响，瑞萨电子跌超4%，爱德万测试、东京电子、任天堂等跟跌，资生堂、味之素等消费股继续走低。软银集团则涨 超2%。 A股方面，主要指数拉升，截至发稿，创业板指涨1.01%，沪指、深成指涨超0.4%，军工、锂矿、保险、水产养殖等方向领涨，沪深京三市上涨个股近 1200只。 虚拟货币方面，近24小时内，比特币涨超1%，价格重回9.2万美元，以太坊涨2.5%，SOL涨5.38%。全市场近11.6万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为4.15亿美元。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞萨电子 | 1789.0d | -83.0 | -4.43% | | 胜高 | 1190.0d | -47.5 | -3.84% | | 斯库林集团 | 12215.0d | -315.0 | -2.51% | | ...

Market Overview - Japanese and Korean stock markets showed a V-shaped recovery, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.55% and the TOPIX index increasing by 0.73% as of 10:28 AM [1] - The KOSPI index in South Korea initially dropped by 2% but later recovered to a gain of approximately 0.01% [6] Individual Stocks Performance - Renesas Electronics fell over 4% due to the impact of a significant drop in US tech stocks, with other companies like Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Nintendo also experiencing declines [3] - SoftBank Group saw an increase of over 2% [3] Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's new 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.76%, the highest since June 2008, while the 20-year yield reached 2.815%, the highest since June 1999 [4] - The increase in long-term interest rates is attributed to concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies potentially worsening the fiscal situation [5] Global Liquidity Impact - The rapid rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely linked to global liquidity, affecting capital flows, yen carry trades, and cross-market spillover effects [5] - Japan's net foreign assets amount to $3.7 trillion, and its government bond market exceeds $7.8 trillion, indicating a significant influence on global capital [5] Cryptocurrency Market - In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin increased by over 1%, reaching a price of $92,000, while Ethereum rose by 2.5% and SOL by 5.38% [7] - The market experienced a liquidation event with approximately 116,000 individuals facing liquidation, totaling $415 million [7]

Market Strategy - The current market is expected to experience limited index growth, with a judgment of "fluctuating up and down, sideways consolidation, slightly strengthening" [7] - Mid-cap blue chips are anticipated to rise again after four years, presenting investment opportunities in manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [7] - Related ETFs include 中证 500ETF (159922) and 中证 1000ETF (512100) [7] Chemical Industry - Global chemical supply is expected to contract due to high costs and aging equipment, leading to a structural adjustment in the supply chain [7] - European chemical sales account for approximately 13% of the global market, but high energy costs and punitive carbon taxes are causing continued capacity exit [7] - Domestic production progress has slowed, and with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the chemical sector is likely to enter a new prosperity cycle [7] - Related stock: 万华化学 (600309, Buy) [7] - Related ETF: 化工 ETF (159870/516020) [7] Financial Technology - Hong Kong's "FinTech 2030" strategy marks a shift from application-focused development to a more systemic, forward-looking, and ecological approach [7] - This strategy emphasizes the collaborative development of data, AI, resilience, and tokenization, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of mainland financial technology [7] - Related ETFs include 金融科技 ETF (159851/515720/159103) and 香港证券 ETF (513090) [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global market sentiment has rapidly deteriorated, with significant declines across major indices including a drop of over 3% in the Nikkei 225 and more than 2% in the MSCI Asia-Pacific index [1] - The cryptocurrency market has also been severely impacted, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000 and Ethereum dropping below $3,000 [1] Group 2: U.S. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations have shifted from anticipating no rate cuts in December to a belief that there will be no cuts in the first half of next year, influenced by internal disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is now estimated at 50%, with inflation risks remaining a primary concern for the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3: Japan's Economic Impact - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged above 1.75%, nearing its highest level since 2008, due to expectations of a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [5][7] - Kishida's proposed stimulus plan could exceed 17 trillion yen, raising concerns about Japan's already high public debt levels [7] - Japan's economy contracted by 1.8% in the third quarter, marking its first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to a decline in exports influenced by U.S. tariffs [7] Group 4: Global Liquidity Concerns - The rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely linked to global liquidity, affecting capital flows and potentially leading to increased global borrowing costs [8] - Analysts warn that sustained increases in Japanese bond yields could lead to a "global financial apocalypse," tightening liquidity and dragging global growth down to 1% [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical and economic conditions, with upward trends often driven by geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance [2] - Current downward risks for gold prices include improvements in the U.S. economy, a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, strengthened fiscal discipline in the U.S., easing geopolitical tensions, and global central banks selling gold, but these risks are not currently significant [2] - Long-term, gold is expected to benefit from increased global liquidity and market preference amid a trend of de-globalization [2][3] Group 2 - The current gold market is in a state of fluctuation, with the $4000 level acting as a strong resistance barrier, making significant breakthroughs unlikely in the short term [4] - Technical analysis shows a bearish pattern in the 1-hour moving averages, adding downward pressure to gold prices, and a downward breakout has occurred after a period of consolidation [4] - The $3990-$4000 range remains a critical resistance area, and investors are advised to consider short positions if prices rebound and remain below $4000 [4]