Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: With expectations of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is decent, and the domestic equity market is strong. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight in the short - term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs creates upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and tend to rise. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 78400 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is supported by the "anti - involution" policy, and there is an expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, and external demand is resilient, but downstream consumption is weak and trade situations are changeable. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract today is 20500 - 20700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2560 - 2610 dollars/ton [4] - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. The social inventory of lead ingots has slightly decreased, and supply has slightly narrowed. However, downstream consumption pressure is high, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. It is expected that lead prices will show a weak and volatile trend [5] - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC continues to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, smelters have high production plans, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, so the domestic zinc ingot market remains in surplus. Although the mid - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged, the short - term decline of zinc prices is difficult due to the support of low LME warehouse receipts [7] - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, but the demand is in the off - season, and the traditional consumption areas are weak. Although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the room for further price increase is limited [8] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore needs time to recover, and the surplus pressure of nickel iron still exists. The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the price of stainless steel has risen steadily, driving the nickel price to rise slightly, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [10] - Lithium Carbonate: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply. The contract limit - up on Monday, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue on Tuesday. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize entry points according to their operations [12] - Alumina: The implementation of supply - side contraction policies needs to be observed, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. The short - term sentiment for long positions in commodities has declined, and the shortage of circulating spot goods is gradually easing. It is recommended to short at high prices according to market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [15] - Stainless Steel: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and the macro - atmosphere is positive. The spot and futures prices of stainless steel in August may be volatile and tend to rise [17] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides strong support, the upward space for prices is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.42% to 9726 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 78810 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 150 to 155700 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 7.7%. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory slightly decreased, bonded area inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.2 to 2.3 million tons [2] - Market: The spot in Shanghai has a premium of 150 yuan/ton over the futures, and the supply is tight. In Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the spot discount to the futures narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference expanded to 1070 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 1.11% to 2586 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20610 yuan/ton [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased by 2.3 million tons to 58.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 0.45 million tons to 14.7 million tons. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 47.6 million tons [4] - Market: The spot in East China had a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was average. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [4] Lead - Price: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.23% to 16885 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 2010 dollars/ton [5] - Inventory: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 5.87 million tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [5] - Market: The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the import loss of lead ingots was - 769.7 yuan/ton [5] Zinc - Price: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.37% to 22598 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to 2840 dollars/ton [7] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 11.92 million tons, and the LME zinc registered warrants continued to decline [7] - Market: The zinc ore supply is loose, the domestic zinc ingot market is in surplus, and the LME market has structural disturbances [7] Tin - Supply: The mining in Myanmar's Wa State is expected to resume in the fourth quarter, and the supply of tin ore in Yunnan has improved, with the operating rate rising to 59.64% [8] - Demand: The downstream is in the off - season, traditional consumption areas are weak, and although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased by 383 tons to 10278 tons [8] Nickel - Ore: The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is recovering slowly, and the short - term premium remains at 24 - 25 dollars/wet ton [10] - Iron: The sentiment in the nickel - iron market has improved, but the surplus pressure still exists [10] - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated upward on Monday [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 11.46% to 77832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed up 5.25% to 81000 yuan [12] - Market: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of supply, and the contract limit - up on Monday [12] Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 0.63% to 3202 yuan/ton [15] - Inventory: The futures warrants increased by 0.42 million tons to 3.04 million tons [15] - Market: The import window is closed, and it is recommended to short at high prices [15] Stainless Steel - Price: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 13225 yuan/ton, up 1.85% [17] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.82% [17] - Market: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and prices may rise [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.12% to 20135 yuan/ton [19] - Inventory: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased to 3.13 million tons [19] - Market: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the upward price space is limited [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and anti - involution policy expectations providing support, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may fluctuate, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the resilience of external demand, but pressured by weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the narrowing supply and high downstream inventory levels [4]. - Zinc prices are difficult to fall in the short - term despite the long - term oversupply situation, supported by the low LME warehouse receipts [6]. - Tin prices are expected to decline as the supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter while the demand remains weak [7]. - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure as the short - term improvement in downstream demand is limited, despite a small rebound [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices are affected by the news of mine shutdowns, with frequent emotional fluctuations in the market. Traders are advised to be cautious [11]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend due to the tight market supply [16]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward space due to the off - season of downstream demand and the large basis between futures and spot prices, despite cost support [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.4% to $9768/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 28,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons. The spot import was in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic refined - copper rod and cable operating rates rebounded slightly. In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of SHFE copper at 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper at $9600 - 10000/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum rose 0.85%, and LME aluminum rose 1.69% to $2615/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20,000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 4000 tons. The aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 4000 tons. The downstream buying interest improved. In the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, with the operating range of SHFE aluminum at 20400 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at $2550 - 2660/ton [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.22% to 16846 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $6.5 to $1998.5/ton. The supply has slightly narrowed, and the downstream consumption pressure is high. Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.31% to 22515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $3.5 to $2816.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot is in an oversupply situation, but the low LME warehouse receipts support the price in the short - term [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, while demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to decline [7]. Nickel - On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and nickel prices have a callback pressure. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Friday, the MMLC carbonate lithium spot index rose 2.95% from the previous trading day and 1.45% for the week. The news of mine shutdowns affects the market sentiment, and traders are advised to be cautious [11]. Alumina - On August 8, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 3182 yuan/ton. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12985 yuan/ton. The market supply is tight, and the price is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose 0.95% to 20110 yuan/ton. The downstream is in the off - season, and the price upward space is limited [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering August, the estimated production of refined copper in China is expected to decline, and imports are also expected to increase after the implementation of US copper tariffs. However, the tight supply of scrap copper is expected to alleviate the surplus to some extent. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and inventories face continued pressure to increase. At the macro - level, the marginal impact of the implementation of US counter - tariffs is not significant. With the expectation of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is acceptable. The strong performance of the domestic equity market, combined with the expectation of anti - involution policies, also provides support on the sentiment side. Overall, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US tariffs puts pressure on copper prices, while the expectations of a Fed rate cut and anti - involution policies still support prices, and copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Key Points Summary - **Supply**: In the first half of the year, the production of major overseas copper mining enterprises was lower than expected, and the supply of copper concentrates remained tight. Domestic refined copper production continued to grow, but it is expected to decline starting from August [9]. - **Demand**: In July, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow at a relatively high rate. In August, with the base increasing, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline. The manufacturing prosperity overseas is differentiated, and short - term demand expectations are neutral [9]. - **Imports and Exports**: In July, the import loss of SHFE copper narrowed, and the imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased. It is estimated that the import volume will further increase in August [9]. - **Inventory**: In July, the inventory of SHFE decreased, while the inventories of LME, COMEX, and the bonded area increased. It is estimated that there will be some inventory accumulation pressure both at home and abroad in August [9]. - **Summary**: Copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In July, copper prices oscillated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 2.29%, and the LME 3M copper contract fell 2.74%. Before the implementation of US copper tariffs and counter - tariffs, the market weakened. The US copper tariffs not meeting expectations caused US copper to soar and then plummet, and SHFE copper and LME copper traded weakly. The US dollar index rose 3.34%, and the offshore RMB depreciated 0.75% [17]. - **Spreads between Markets**: In July, there were more deliveries of LME copper, the spot supply was loose, and the monthly spread weakened. SHFE copper outperformed LME copper. Currently, the spot import of SHFE copper only incurs a small loss. The US 232 investigation on copper was finalized, and on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products. The tariff exceeding expectations caused US copper to rise significantly relative to LME copper, but the market only priced in about 30% of the tariff at most. On July 30, the US disclosed the details of copper product tariffs, which were significantly lower than expected. Only semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivative products were included, and cathode copper was not taxed. US copper fell significantly relative to LME copper, and the US copper arbitrage window was basically closed [20]. - **Inventory & Basis**: As of early August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 523,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons from the end of June. The total inventory has moved out of the relatively low level, but there are still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounts for a high proportion, about 45%). The copper inventory in China rebounded this month, with the exchange inventory at about 73,000 tons and the off - exchange social inventory at about 60,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased month - on - month, with an absolute amount of about 75,000 tons. LME copper inventory increased and rebounded to over 140,000 tons in early August, and the inventory has continued to increase recently. The total inventory of COMEX copper is about 234,000 tons. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed the Cash/3M from a premium to a discount, with a discount of over 60 US dollars/ton in early August. With no significant increase in Chinese imports and a tight supply of scrap copper, the spot remained tight, and the basis was relatively firm, reported at over 100 yuan/ton in early August [23][26]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of July, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 13.1%. However, long positions were reduced as the tariff implementation time approached, and the bullish sentiment of funds decreased marginally. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased, and the market was generally cautious before and after the tariff implementation. In August, the impact on market sentiment mainly comes from the Fed's monetary policy expectations, inventory changes, and trade situations [29]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mines**: The total output of 15 large and medium - sized copper mining enterprises was about 3.003 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, with a continued low growth rate. The output increase mainly came from BHP, Zijin Mining, MMG, Vale, CMOC, and Rio Tinto, while the decrease mainly came from Freeport, Anglo American, Teck Resources, and First Quantum Minerals. Rio Tinto's production guidance was raised this quarter, while Glencore and Teck Resources' production guidance was lowered. In June, the copper mine output in Chile decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in the output of the Escondida copper mine. Recently, the El Teniente mine under the state - owned Codelco in Chile had an accident and stopped production, resulting in significant disturbances in the mine - end supply [34]. - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In July, the domestic production of refined copper increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month as the smelter operating rate remained high. In August, there are still few maintenance activities at copper smelters, but due to the tight supply of raw materials, the output is expected to decline slightly. There will be more maintenance of domestic copper smelters in September, and the output is expected to decline further [43]. - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In July, the average spread between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,220 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises oscillated, and the marginal substitution of refined copper changed little. In August, the supply of scrap copper remained tight, the refined - scrap spread remained low, and the substitution of electrolytic copper from the consumption side is expected to decrease [46]. - **Demand - China**: Assuming exports were flat or slightly increased in July, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.4%. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to July was about 9.395 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China declined in July, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal weakening of manufacturing prosperity [49]. - **Demand - Overseas**: In July, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. The eurozone and India had relatively strong prosperity, while the US and Japan had relatively weak prosperity. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month in May 2025 but increased year - on - year, with a consumption growth of about 3.6% from January to May [67]. 4. Macro Analysis - In July, the US unemployment rate rose, and the non - farm data was below expectations. The inflation data in the US stabilized and rose slightly in June. Despite the strong resilience of US economic data, under political pressure, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 BP with a probability of over 90% at the September FOMC meeting [71]. - In July, the US dollar index rebounded and is currently in a stage of oscillating and rebounding. The 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is weak, providing a slightly bearish indication for copper prices [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market strengthened with fluctuations. Credit bonds experienced a recovery after a sharp decline, with most major - term varieties rising more than interest - rate bonds. However, some weakly - qualified urban investment bonds had a "catch - up decline" [2][9]. - The ultra - long - term credit bonds also warmed up, with the second - tier perpetual (Er Yong) ultra - long bonds rising more, while the ultra - long urban investment bonds rising relatively less [2][10]. - The Er Yong bonds continued to show the characteristic of a "volatility amplifier", and the 3 - year and above terms had higher increases than general credit and ultra - long - term credit bonds of the same terms [3][15]. - The recovery last week was mainly led by allocation - oriented institutions such as wealth management and insurance funds. Public funds and other trading desks participated less actively [4][23]. - The growth rate of the scale of credit bond ETF - like products, the main driving factor of the previous "independent bull" market of credit bonds, slowed down last week [4][26]. - Currently, the strategy should focus on liquidity. There are still some opportunities in 3 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds, and there are also good opportunities in 1 - 3 - year low - quality urban investment bond sinking + riding [4][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Repair Rhythm - **Bond Market Trend**: Last week, the bond market was affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation and the "see - saw" effect of the equity and commodity markets in the first half of the week, and then stabilized in the second half. However, the sudden rumor of tax policy changes on Friday caused fluctuations at the end of the session. Interest - rate bonds showed a "V - shaped" trend with yields oscillating downward. Credit bonds strengthened in tandem with interest - rate bonds, and most of them recovered more, but some weakly - qualified urban investment bonds had a "catch - up decline" [2][9]. - **Yield Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds decreased by 1.01BP, 0.97BP, 3.26BP, 3.87BP, and 3.62BP respectively. The yields of the same - term AAA medium - term notes decreased by 4.14BP, 4.96BP, 2.98BP, 5.69BP, and 3.44BP respectively. The yields of AA+ medium - term notes decreased by 4.03BP, 4.96BP, 2.98BP, 5.69BP, and 2.44BP respectively. The yields of 2Y - 5Y AA - urban investment bonds increased by 3.56BP, 1.99BP, 3.80BP, and 3.09BP respectively [9][11]. - **Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds**: The ultra - long - term credit bonds warmed up, with most of their increases exceeding those of the same - term interest - rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes decreased by 4.00BP and 6.00BP respectively. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds decreased by 2.06BP and 0.06BP respectively. The yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 5.49BP, while the 10Y treasury bond yield only decreased by 2.65BP [10]. - **Curve Shape**: The steepness of all - grade 1 - 2 years and low - grade 2 - 3 years was the highest, basically the same as at the end of May. Taking the yield term structure diagrams of AA+ medium - term notes and AA urban investment bonds as examples, the slopes of the 1 - 2 - year, 2 - 3 - year, and 3 - 5 - year intervals of AA+ medium - term notes were 0.0965, 0.0679, and 0.0705 respectively; those of AA urban investment bonds were 0.1265, 0.0969, and 0.0677 respectively [12]. - **Historical Quantiles**: After the sharp decline, the credit repair rhythm was moderate. The short - duration repair amplitude was large, and the high - grade 3Y - 5Y still had some cost - effectiveness. From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the valuation maturity yields of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, 5Y - AAA, 1Y - AA+, 3Y - AA+, 5Y - AA+, 1Y - AA, and 3Y - AA ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes were at the 9.06%, 22.41%, 20.90%, 5.79%, 8.81%, 13.60%, 4.03%, and 12.59% levels since 2024 respectively. The historical quantiles of credit spreads were 8.22%, 27.58%, 26.79%, 5.83%, 15.64%, 24.66%, 5.03%, and 29.97% respectively, and the protection cushion for 3Y - 5Y was strengthened [13]. 3.2 Er Yong Bonds - **Market Performance**: The Er Yong bonds strengthened and continued to show the characteristic of a "volatility amplifier". The increases of 3 - year and above terms exceeded those of general credit and ultra - long - term credit bonds of the same terms. The 1 - year - within and 7 - year - and - above parts of the curve were relatively flat, and the 2 - 6 - year curve was the steepest. The yields of 1 - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year AAA - bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 5.48BP, 7.26BP, 7.78BP, 6.03BP, 6.43BP, 4.39BP, and 5.49BP respectively [3][15]. - **Active Trading**: The trading sentiment was enthusiastic throughout the week, and the Er Yong bonds were the most active variety. From July 28 to August 1, the low - valuation trading ratios of Er Yong bonds were 100.00%, 0.00%, 100.00%, 100.00%, and 100.00% respectively; the average trading durations were 6.84 years, 0.53 years, 7.03 years, 7.25 years, and 4.39 years respectively. The discount trading amplitudes of Er Yong bonds were small, with only one discount trading amplitude exceeding 3BP. The low - valuation trading amplitudes were generally high, with 52.5% of the low - valuation trading amplitudes between 3BP - 5BP [3][17]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - **Selling Willingness**: Institutions' willingness to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds was average. Although there was a recovery last week, the selling pressure was not weak in terms of the discount trading amplitude. From July 28 to August 1, the discount trading ratios of ultra - long - term credit bonds were 20.00%, 100.00%, 47.50%, 7.50%, and 10.00% respectively. The discount amplitudes were not small, and there were also transactions with a discount of more than 4BP. About 44% of the discount trading amplitudes exceeded 3BP [3][18]. - **Buying Willingness**: The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was also strong. Other highly - active trades were mainly some short - term real - estate and financial flawed individual bonds. From July 28 to August 1, the low - valuation trading ratios of ultra - long - term credit bonds were 97.50%, 0.00%, 57.50%, 90.00%, and 60.00% respectively. During the market recovery last week, institutions' buying willingness was strong, and about 55% of the low - valuation trading amplitudes were above 3BP [20][23]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - **Dominant Institutions**: The recovery last week was mainly led by allocation - oriented institutions such as wealth management and insurance funds. Public funds and other trading desks participated less actively. Funds and other trading desks reduced their holdings of credit bonds during the sharp decline in the bond market the week before last. With the bond market recovery last week, they turned from net sellers to net buyers of general credit bonds, but the overall increase in positions was small [4][23]. - **Wealth Management and Insurance**: Banks' wealth management and insurance institutions bought on dips after the sharp decline in the bond market. Banks' wealth management's buying intensity of general credit bonds and ultra - long - term credit bonds has increased for three consecutive weeks. In terms of market scale, the month - on - month increase in June and July was in the order of hundreds of billions of yuan [4][23]. - **Credit Bond ETFs**: The growth rate of the scale of credit bond ETF - like products, the main driving factor of the previous "independent bull" market of credit bonds, slowed down last week. Specifically, the week - on - week scale of credit benchmark - making ETF products has slowed down since the second week of July, and the week - on - week change has turned negative in the last two weeks. The week - on - week scale of science and technology innovation ETF products has also slowed down significantly in the last two weeks. In addition, the trading activity of the underlying bonds of ETF products has also decreased significantly, especially for the underlying bonds of science and technology innovation bonds, with about 60% of the underlying bonds falling more than non - underlying bonds [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The production decline caused by previous device maintenance has gradually recovered, and the supply side is steadily increasing. Except for styrene, other downstream products have poor profit transmission, and the terminal's willingness to start work is insufficient, resulting in limited demand. The high port inventory and the "anti - involution" policy expectation make the market more volatile with the bulk sentiment, and its own driving force is weak [4]. - **Styrene**: Domestic styrene devices maintain high - load operation, and short - term production may remain high. Although some downstream devices are gradually recovering, terminal orders have not significantly increased, and inventory overstocking still exists. The high social inventory and the pressure on the cost side due to oil price fluctuations and the loose supply - demand of pure benzene lead to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the chain reaction brought by policies and crude oil trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On July 30, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.18% at 7,387 yuan/ton, with a basis of 28 (+47 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.72% at 6,269 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cost**: On July 30, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at $69.2/barrel (+$2.5/barrel), the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at $72.5/barrel (+$2.5/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,085 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of styrene sample factories was 20.5 tons (-0.3 tons), a month - on - month de - stocking of 1.5%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 15.1 tons (+1.2 tons), a month - on - month stocking of 8.8%, with overall stocking [3]. - **Supply**: The styrene maintenance devices have returned, and the overall supply is stable. Currently, the weekly output of styrene remains at 36.1 tons (+0.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.8% (+0.5%) [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S have different changes. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 55.2% (+2.0%), ABS is 66.8% (+0.9%), and PS is 51.6% (+1.0%), with the overall start - up rate improving [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene Price**: From July 28 to 29, the main continuous futures price of styrene increased by 0.22%, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 258.33% [6]. - **Pure Benzene Price**: From July 28 to 29, the main continuous futures price of pure benzene increased by 0.72%, the price in East China increased by 1.0%, and the prices of South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [6]. - **Upstream Price**: From July 28 to 29, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.35%, WTI crude oil increased by 2.11%, and the price of naphtha increased by 0.03% [6]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From July 18 to 25, the production of styrene in China increased by 0.69% to 36.1 tons, and the production of pure benzene decreased by 2.39% to 42.5 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: From July 18 to 25, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 8.81% to 15.1 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.46% to 20.5 tons, and the national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 4.27% to 17.1 tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Downstream of Pure Benzene**: From July 18 to 25, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and caprolactam changed slightly, phenol decreased by 4.04%, and aniline increased by 0.77% [8]. - **Downstream of Styrene**: From July 18 to 25, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS all increased, by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 1.0% respectively [8]. 3.3 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [9]. - The US Treasury Department intensified its "maximum pressure" action against Iran, targeting the shipping network of the Shamkhani family. US officials said the new sanctions would make it "more difficult" for Iran to sell oil but would not cause a continuous disruption to the global oil market [9]. - The Federal Reserve kept its policy unchanged, and Powell avoided giving guidance on a September interest - rate cut [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of pure benzene and styrene, the cost comparison between imported and domestic pure benzene for styrene, the inventory trends of styrene and pure benzene at ports and factories, and the capacity utilization rates of downstream products such as ABS, EPS, phenol, aniline, and caprolactam [10][15][16].

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 6.90% to 1133.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment is influenced by expectations surrounding the "anti-involution" policy, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicating that a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and construction materials, is forthcoming [1] - Supply pressures are increasing due to planned production cuts by photovoltaic glass companies, leading to a decrease in daily melting volume and contributing to higher inventory levels in the industry [1] Group 2 - The current real estate market remains weak, impacting downstream processing orders and leading to a focus on essential purchases, with automotive glass manufacturers unable to offset the weak demand from real estate [1] - Short-term outlook for glass prices is expected to be volatile, with a significant pullback following initial macro policy boosts, and inventory levels are decreasing primarily due to procurement by market participants [2] - For a sustained price increase in the medium to long term, substantial policy changes in the real estate sector are necessary, as continued weak demand would require ongoing supply reductions to create upward price momentum [2]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced significant declines, with Tianqi Lithium down 3.82% to 36.5 HKD and Ganfeng Lithium down 3.36% to 27.35 HKD [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate, LC2509, saw a substantial reduction in positions, with a drop of 6% [1] - According to CITIC Futures, the weekly production from SMM showed a slight decline, primarily due to reduced output from salt lake sources, while the impact of maintenance on actual supply was limited [1] Group 2 - The overall inventory trend remains upward, but strong price increases are causing inventory to shift from upstream to intermediate stages [2] - Despite production cuts in Jiangxi and Qinghai, domestic output continues to rise, while July saw a year-on-year decline in retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles, with only the energy storage market showing growth [2] - The anticipated "anti-involution" policy in the bulk commodity market has made compliance risks regarding mining licenses in Jiangxi a focal point in the lithium carbonate market [2]

中辉期货指出，基本面总库存维持累库趋势，但价格强势拉涨令库存开始从上游转移至中间环节。国内 虽然江西和青海均有企业减停产但产量依然维持上升，7月新能源汽车零售和批发市场销量同比下滑， 仅储能市场有一定增量。短期大宗商品市场交易"反内卷"政策预期，江西锂矿采矿证的合规风险成为碳 酸锂博弈的焦点，综合近期国内外的减产信息，全年的过剩量将由8万吨缩窄至5万吨LCE。 消息面上，碳酸锂主力合约LC2509大幅减仓，跌幅达6%。中信期货指出，SMM周度产量环比小幅下 滑，主要体现为盐湖端藏格减产的部分，藏格停产和银锂检修对实际供应影响有限，市场主要是交易其 他项目的进一步停产预期；需求也没有明显超预期，8月排产表现相对平稳；社会库存继续累库，仓单 库存进入7月注销月后持续快速去化，但交仓意愿随价格上涨有所修复，8月仓单或可逐渐恢复。总体看 来三季度国内供需处于大体平衡状态，但价格处于当前高位或刺激供应加快释放。当前影响市场的核心 仍是反内卷情绪与矿山采矿证相关问题的进展。 智通财经APP获悉，锂业股午后跌幅扩大，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)跌3.82%，报36.5港元；赣锋锂 业(01772)跌3.36%，报27. ...

化工板块今日（7月30日）早盘走高后持续高位震荡，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘 中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.27%，截至发稿，涨1.36%。 成份股方面，石化、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，卫星化学飙涨超6%，新凤鸣大涨超 4%，恒力石化、华鲁恒升、鲁西化工等多股涨超3%。 | | | 318 8-1 15 59 159 159 (109 E . | | | | | 19 dramate find not no and the will of a | | | | 《《TETE CO | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.575 | | | | surance manus | 516020(KLIETF] 13:43 价 0.66) 2009(1.36%) 136% 0.671 版权服 1870 10PV 0.6679 "227% | | | | | | 0.669 SSE CNY 1341:57 交通中 | | +0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced a significant reversal, with coking coal futures plummeting over 10% after a period of continuous gains, indicating a shift in market sentiment from exuberance to caution due to new risk control measures implemented by exchanges [1][5][8] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 28, coking coal futures fell by 10.25% during the night session, following a previous day of significant losses, marking a complete turnaround from five consecutive days of gains [1][4] - Other commodities also faced declines, with glass down 7.58%, soda ash down 4.46%, and coking coal down 3.79% among others, reflecting a widespread downturn in the market [1][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - Analysts noted that the previous trading activity was driven by expectations of coal production limits, which overstretched the price increase potential for coking coal, leading to a sharp decline in prices [4][5] - The introduction of new trading limits by exchanges on July 25 significantly impacted market sentiment, causing a substantial withdrawal of funds and a cooling of trading activity [5][6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Industry insiders expect a temporary easing of the previously tight supply situation for coking coal, with prices likely to face downward pressure in the future [3][8] - The overall supply environment for the year appears to be relatively loose, suggesting that the recent price increases were more of a short-term rebound rather than a sustainable trend [3][8] Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - The trading logic for coking coal is shifting from being driven by market sentiment to being based on supply and demand fundamentals, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [7][8] - Analysts believe that the recent price surge may have reached its peak, with significant competition from imported coal, particularly lower-priced Mongolian coal, likely to exert downward pressure on domestic prices [8]