Section 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Section 2: Core Views - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The ChiNext and STAR 50 indices weakened significantly, falling more than 2%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with the CSI 500 being the most resilient. After the National Day holiday, the A-share market opened higher, but there was profit-taking and fear of high prices, leading to a significant adjustment on Friday [6][11]. - Treasury bond futures had mixed performances this week. The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The economic data shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand," and the foundation for the recovery of effective demand is not yet solid, which provides some support for the bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [6]. - The commodity market still shows a pattern of weak crude oil and strong gold. Since crude oil and gold have a large weight in the commodity index, it is expected that the commodity index will continue to fluctuate widely [6]. - The widening of the US-Japan interest rate differential has increased the expectation of a US dollar rebound. The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve limits the significant upward space. Japan's new political party is implementing fiscal stimulus and maintaining a loose stance, putting short-term pressure on the Japanese yen. The euro's trend mainly follows the inverse fluctuation of the US dollar [6][10]. Section 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The CSI 300 declined by 0.51%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures declined by 0.63%. The A-share market had a good start after the National Day holiday, but then adjusted due to profit-taking. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6][11]. Bonds - The 10-year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.10%, with a weekly change of -0.18 BP. The main 10-year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.09%. The bond market is in a mixed situation, and the recommendation is to wait and see cautiously [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 0.76%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.94%. The commodity market has a pattern of weak crude oil and strong gold, and the recommendation is to mainly wait and see [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar declined by 1.45%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract declined by 1.51%. The US dollar is expected to rebound, the yen is under pressure, and the euro follows the US dollar's inverse trend. The recommendation is to wait and see cautiously [6][10]. 3.2 Important News and Events - China has taken steps in extraterritorial jurisdiction, including export controls on rare earths and related technologies and adding foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. China and Italy held the 12th Joint Meeting of the Governmental Committee, and Premier Li Qiang met with the President of the European Commission [13]. - The US Federal Reserve showed a willingness to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. Hamas announced that the Gaza war had ended. The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast, and the US government shutdown continued [15]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - The US 1-year inflation expectation in September was 3.38%. The eurozone's retail sales month-on-month rate in August was 0.1%. Germany's industrial output month-on-month rate in August was -4.3%, and its trade surplus was 17.2 billion euros. France's trade deficit in August was 5.53 billion euros. Japan's trade surplus in August was 105.9 billion yen [16]. - The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan this week [18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as China's September export and import year-on-year rates, Germany's September CPI month-on-month rate, and the US September NFIB small business confidence index will be released [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The commodity market as a whole moved upward this week, with the commodity index rising 0.43%. By sector, the precious metals index rose 4.48%, the non-ferrous metals index rose 0.73%, the energy and chemical index fell 0.06%, the industrial products index fell 0.10%, the agricultural products index fell 1.23%, and the black index fell 1.95%. By variety, the crude oil index rose 0.89% and the gold index rose 3.07% [2][6]. - All CTA strategies posted small profits this week. The China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term strategy index rose 0.06%, with 73% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA medium - to long - term strategy index rose 0.36%, with 68% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA quantitative arbitrage strategy index rose 0.09%, with 58% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term time - series price - volume strategy index rose 0.09%, while the China Merchants Futures CTA medium - to long - term time - series price - volume strategy index fell 0.24% [2]. - It is recommended to gradually increase CTA allocation, mainly focusing on trend strategies. Currently, the profits of most commodities are at relatively low levels in reality. In terms of expectations, the price level has basically bottomed out, and policy support and demand recovery will continue to boost inflation. Globally, fiscal and monetary policies are gradually entering a synchronous expansion cycle. Therefore, the long - term trend of the commodity market is gradually taking shape, volatility is expected to gradually increase, and the profit expectation of CTA is gradually strengthening [2]. - The short - to medium - term strategy environment is moderately favorable. Intraday liquidity has continued to recover, with a historical quantile of around 0.7; intraday volatility has remained high, with a historical quantile of around 0.9; and trend smoothness has slightly improved, with a historical quantile of around 0.7. The medium - to long - term strategy environment is neutral. The inter - day trend smoothness has continued to recover, with the variety trend smoothness around 0.8 and the proportion of varieties with smooth trends around 0.7; the inter - day volatility has slightly recovered from the bottom, with the variety volatility around 0.0 and the proportion of high - volatility varieties around 0.2 [2]. - Most mainstream style factors posted losses this week. The contribution at the sector level was dispersed, with precious metals contributing positive returns and energy and chemicals mostly contributing negative returns. At the variety level, the contribution was also dispersed, with no concentration of returns in specific varieties. The volatility of most mainstream factors declined, but most historical quantiles were in the range of 0.1 - 0.9 [2]. Summary by Catalog 01 Market行情回顾 - **Index performance**: The commodity market mostly rose, with the commodity index up 0.43%. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals indices increased, while the energy and chemical, industrial products, agricultural products, and black indices decreased. Among stock index futures, the IC, IF, and IH indices rose, and the IM index fell. Treasury bond indices generally declined. For CTA style factors, the 20 - day time - series momentum and long - short 50% roll - over factors performed best, while the 20 - day cross - sectional momentum and 5 - day time - series momentum factors performed worst [6]. - **Commodity market**: The net value of most commodity sector indices declined, and most volatilities increased. The trading volume and open interest of the commodity futures market were in the normal range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of commodity futures was 1.97 trillion yuan (an increase of 0.11 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 2.39 trillion yuan, and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, at the 37.54% level of the past three years [8][12]. - **Stock index futures market**: Most stock index futures indices rose, and half of the volatilities increased. The trading volume and open interest were in a relatively high range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of stock index futures was 0.82 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 1.33 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan week - on - week), and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.61, at the 82.09% level of the past three years [16][20]. - **Treasury bond futures market**: The net value of treasury bond futures indices generally declined, and most volatilities decreased. The trading volume and open interest were in the normal range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of treasury bond futures was 0.43 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 0.77 trillion yuan (an increase of 0.01 trillion yuan week - on - week), and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.56, at the 67.70% level of the past three years [23][27]. - **CTA strategy tracking**: More than 50% of quantitative CTA strategies had positive returns this week. All types of CTA strategies posted small profits. For example, the China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term strategy index rose 0.06%, and the medium - to long - term strategy index rose 0.36% [28][38]. 02 Strategy Market Environment - **Short - to medium - term strategy environment**: Intraday liquidity continued to recover, and volatility remained high. The historical quantile of intraday liquidity was around 0.7, and that of intraday volatility was around 0.9 [2]. - **Medium - to long - term strategy environment**: The trend smoothness continued to recover, and the volatility recovered from the bottom. The variety trend smoothness was around 0.8, the proportion of varieties with smooth trends was around 0.7, the variety volatility was around 0.0, and the proportion of high - volatility varieties was around 0.2 [2]. 03 CTA Style Factors - **Factor returns**: Most mainstream factors posted losses. For example, the 5 - day time - series momentum factor fell 0.59%, and the 20 - day cross - sectional momentum factor fell 0.40% [54]. - **Return contribution**: At the sector level, precious metals contributed positive returns, and energy and chemicals mostly contributed negative returns. At the variety level, the contribution was dispersed. For example, for the 5 - day time - series momentum factor, silver, polycrystalline silicon, and coking coal were among the top contributors, while glass, container shipping index, and crude oil were among the bottom contributors [55][57]. - **Factor correlation**: The correlation matrix shows the relationships between different factors. For example, the correlation between the 5 - day time - series momentum and 5 - day cross - sectional momentum factors was 0.851 [71]. 04 CTA Risk Monitoring - **Risk factor exposure**: CTA time - series price - volume had a large exposure to the 20 - day time - series momentum factor, CTA cross - sectional long - short also had a large exposure to the 20 - day time - series momentum factor, and CTA mixed time - series cross - sectional had a small exposure to style factors [74]. - **Return decomposition**: For the CTA time - series price - volume strategy, the total return since the beginning of the year was 7.26%, with a purified alpha return of 7.17% and a style factor beta return of 0.09%. For the CTA cross - sectional long - short strategy, the total return was 1.43%, with a purified alpha return of - 1.71% and a style factor beta return of 3.14%. For the CTA mixed time - series cross - sectional strategy, the total return was 5.54%, with a purified alpha return of 3.18% and a style factor beta return of 2.36% [75].

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by over 100 points, closing at 46,751.12, a rise of 0.32%. The NASDAQ rose by 0.88% to 22,989.73, and the S&P 500 gained 0.57% to 6,752.93 [1] - Information technology shares saw a notable increase of 1.1%, while consumer staples stocks fell by 0.4% [1] Commodities - In commodity trading, oil prices increased by 1.7% to $62.78, gold rose by 1.5% to $4,066.00, silver surged by 2.7% to $48.780, while copper experienced a slight decline of 0.2% to $5.0860 [5] European Markets - European shares showed positive performance, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.86%. Spain's IBEX 35 Index increased by 1.18%, London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.77%, Germany's DAX 40 gained 0.97%, and France's CAC 40 also rose by 1.18% [6] Asian Markets - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 0.45%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declining by 0.48%, and India's BSE Sensex decreasing by 0.19% [7] Company Updates - Dell Technologies Inc. saw its shares increase by 9% to $163.88, with Wells Fargo raising its price target from $160 to $180 and Bernstein maintaining an Outperform rating with a price target increase from $175 to $180 [9] - Critical Metals Corp. shares surged by 15% to $11.50 after signing a 10-year offtake deal for 15% of rare earth output from the Tanbreez Project [9] - Select Medical Holdings Corporation shares rose by 13% to $14.71, with RBC Capital raising its price target from $16 to $20 [9] - Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. shares dropped by 19% to $2.4912 following a $75 million offering of 30 million shares at $2.50 per share [9] - Zeta Network Group shares fell by 47% to $1.81 after announcing a $15 million registered direct offering at $1.00 per share [9] - Envoy Medical, Inc. shares decreased by 38% to $0.9899 after announcing a $4 million registered direct offering at $1.33 per share [9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 13,070.86, up by 1.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 3,820.09, down by 1.3% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the Shenzhen market increased by 10.05% to 10,728 billion, while the Shanghai market saw a 7.44% increase to 14,178 billion [1] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries classified by Shenwan, 13 industries saw an increase while 18 experienced a decline [1] - The top three performing industries were coal, electric equipment, and electronics, while the worst performers were banks, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials [1] Margin Trading Overview - As of September 19, the total margin trading balance in the market increased by 466 billion to 23,982 billion [1] - The margin financing balance rose by 23.816 billion, while the margin short selling balance remained unchanged at 166 billion [2] Net Buying by Industry - Most industries recorded positive net buying amounts, with notable sectors including electronics, non-bank financials, electric equipment, and automobiles [2] Top Stocks by Margin Financing - The top ten stocks by net margin financing included Shenghong Technology (211.205 million), SMIC (205.644 million), and CITIC Securities (177.497 million) [3] Top ETFs by Margin Financing - The leading ETFs by net margin financing were Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF (46.946 million) and E Fund CSI Overseas China Internet 50 ETF (44.124 million) [4] Market Analysis - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the domestic stock market is experiencing fluctuations and consolidation [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently fallen below its 20-day moving average, indicating a need for technical adjustment after a period of continuous growth [7][8] - Despite the recent adjustments, the market remains in a relatively strong position, with some indices still trending upwards, suggesting ongoing structural opportunities [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to have a limited short-term impact on the domestic A-share market, which has already seen a period of continuous growth [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently fallen below its 20-day moving average, indicating a need for technical consolidation, while the Shenzhen Component Index remains relatively strong [1] - Market focus has shifted towards growth sectors such as new energy and robotics, with technology stocks leading in gains and small-cap stocks showing resilience [1] Group 2 - The market is currently undergoing a technical adjustment after a period of upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index in a horizontal consolidation phase since late August [2] - Despite attempts to reach new highs, the market is facing increasing upward pressure, yet the current adjustment remains in a relatively strong state, with previous resistance levels now acting as support [2] - Structural opportunities continue to be a key characteristic of the market, as some sector indices maintain an upward trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Supply Insights - Coking coal production from 523 sample mines reached an average of 191.22 million tons per day, up by 3.31%[44] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises increased to 23 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of 3 yuan[20] - Coking coal total inventory increased, with independent coking plants holding 966.41 million tons, down by 10.47%[62] Demand Insights - Daily pig iron production averaged 240.75 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.09%[24] - Coking coal demand remains moderate as coking coal production is at historically low levels[49] - The total weekly output of the five major materials reached 878.06 million tons, up by 6.43%[24] Inventory Insights - Coking plant inventories increased slightly after two months of depletion, with total coking coal inventory at 888.58 million tons, up by 1.16%[28] - Steel mill inventories decreased slightly, with 247 steel mills holding 812.31 million tons, an increase of 6.51%[62] - The usable days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel mills increased to 13.07 days, up by 0.1 days[62] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience increased risk appetite following dovish comments from Powell, with commodity prices likely to rise[5] - The coking coal index is projected to fluctuate within the range of 1100-1300[6] - The coking coal index is anticipated to operate within the range of 1650-1790[5]

The provided content does not contain any information about quantitative models or factors. The documents primarily discuss market performance, asset classes, fund performance, and other financial data, but there is no mention of quantitative models, factor construction, or related testing results.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, major domestic stock indices rebounded across the board, with large-cap indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index rising by 1.23%, 1.27%, and 2.11% respectively, and small and medium-cap indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.78%, 2.51%, and 0.49% respectively. Style indices also rose across the board, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable style indices rising by 1.56%, 3.49%, 0.77%, 1.87%, and 1.24% respectively [1][8]. - The trading volume of domestic stock ETFs decreased last week. The total trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 45.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.091 billion yuan from the previous week, and the total trading volume of theme ETFs was 62.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.671 billion yuan from the previous week [1][2]. - In terms of fund performance, among comprehensive ETFs, the top three performers were 1000ETF, 500ETF, and 800ETF, with increases of 2.60%, 1.75%, and 1.39% respectively, while the bottom three were ChiNext, ChiNext 50, and Sci - Tech Innovation and ChiNext 50ETF, with increases of 0.39%, 0.48%, and 0.50% respectively. Among industry - themed ETFs, the top three were Colorful Metals ETF, Military Industry ETF, and Resources ETF, with increases of 5.96%, 5.74%, and 4.99% respectively, while the bottom three were Computer, Biomedical, and Pharmaceutical ETFs, with decreases of 1.44%, 0.82%, and 0.73% respectively [3][32]. - In terms of capital flow, most broad - based indices in comprehensive ETFs had small net capital outflows, while small and medium - cap ETFs such as the CSI 1000 and ChiNext had capital inflows. In industry themes, heavy - weight sectors such as securities, coal, and colorful metals had large capital inflows [3][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Fund Market Overview 1.1 Stock Market - Last week (2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08), major domestic stock indices rose across the board. Large - cap indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index rose by 1.23%, 1.27%, and 2.11% respectively, and small and medium - cap indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index rose by 1.78%, 2.51%, and 0.49% respectively. Style indices also rose across the board, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable style indices rising by 1.56%, 3.49%, 0.77%, 1.87%, and 1.24% respectively. Under the growth style, large - cap growth, medium - cap growth, and small - cap growth style indices rose by 1.38%, 1.54%, and 1.55% respectively [1][8]. - The trading activity of the A - share market has been fluctuating upwards recently and is currently close to the level in December 2024. The overall trading volume of the market has been fluctuating in the past year, with a significant rebound from September to November, a decline from December to January, bottom - level fluctuations from February to May, and a rebound from June to July [9]. 1.2 Bond Market and Futures Market - Last week, the SSE Convertible Bond index rose by 2.25%. Pure - bond indices rose across the board, with the SSE Treasury Bond, SSE Corporate Bond, and Shenzhen Local Government Bond indices rising by 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.14% respectively. - The main contracts of major stock index futures had mixed performance, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 rising by 1.31%, 1.07%, and 2.04% respectively. The prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.18%, 0.10%, and 0.03% respectively [16][17]. 1.3 Commodity Market - In the past week, the commodity market had mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index, Nanhua Black Index, and Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index rose by 2.94%, 1.76%, and 1.29% respectively. The main contracts of domestic key commodity futures also had mixed performance, with the DCE Coking Coal, SHFE Silver, and DCE Coke contracts rising by 10.04%, 3.98%, and 2.23% respectively [18][22]. 2. ETF Market Quotation Statistics - The report selects the most representative ETFs in different sectors of comprehensive and industry themes for long - term tracking through indicators such as fund scale and trading volume. Tracking and monitoring indicators such as large - and small - cap style classification, changes in circulating shares, net buying funds, and trading volume of the selected ETFs can serve as a reference for market style switching and capital flow [24]. 2.1 Domestic Stock - type ETF Trading Activity Ranking - Using the weekly fund turnover rate (trading volume (shares)/on - market circulating shares (shares)) as a measure of ETF trading activity, a high weekly fund turnover rate indicates that there may be significant differences in the market's view of a certain sector, which requires attention. - Last week, trading hotspots were mainly concentrated in comprehensive indices such as ChiNext 50 and ChiNext, and sectors such as Military Industry ETF, Coal ETF, and Steel ETF [25]. 3. Large - and Small - Cap Style Monitoring 3.1 Comprehensive Stock ETF - As of last week, in terms of trading volume, the trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 45.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.091 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, the trading volume of large - and medium - cap style comprehensive ETFs was 20.229 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.326 billion yuan, and the trading volume of small and medium - cap comprehensive ETFs was 25.593 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.109 billion yuan. - In terms of on - market shares, the on - market shares of comprehensive ETFs were 361.256 billion shares, a decrease of 2.007 billion shares from the previous week. Among them, the on - market shares of large - and medium - cap style comprehensive ETFs were 239.237 billion shares, a decrease of 1.161 billion shares, and the on - market shares of small and medium - cap comprehensive ETFs were 122.019 billion shares, a decrease of 0.846 billion shares [27]. 3.2 Theme Stock ETF - As of last week, the average weekly increase or decrease of 32 theme ETFs was 1.39%. Among them, the average weekly increase of large - cap style ETFs was 2.24%, and the average weekly increase of small and medium - cap style ETFs was 0.72%. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of the tracked theme ETFs was 62.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.671 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, the trading volume of large - cap style ETFs was 29.876 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.961 billion yuan, and the trading volume of small and medium - cap style ETFs was 32.317 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.710 billion yuan. - The on - market shares of the tracked theme ETFs were 404.065 billion shares, a decrease of 0.011 billion shares from the previous week. Among them, the on - market shares of large - and medium - cap style theme ETFs were 171.647 billion shares, an increase of 3.032 billion shares, and the on - market shares of small and medium - cap style theme ETFs were 232.418 billion shares, a decrease of 3.143 billion shares [29]. 4. Sector Capital Flow Tracking - As of last week, among comprehensive ETFs, the top three performers were 1000ETF, 500ETF, and 800ETF, with increases of 2.60%, 1.75%, and 1.39% respectively, while the bottom three were ChiNext, ChiNext 50, and Sci - Tech Innovation and ChiNext 50ETF, with increases of 0.39%, 0.48%, and 0.50% respectively. Among industry - themed ETFs, the top three were Colorful Metals ETF, Military Industry ETF, and Resources ETF, with increases of 5.96%, 5.74%, and 4.99% respectively, while the bottom three were Computer, Biomedical, and Pharmaceutical ETFs, with decreases of 1.44%, 0.82%, and 0.73% respectively. - In terms of capital flow, most broad - based indices in comprehensive ETFs had small net capital outflows, while small and medium - cap ETFs such as the CSI 1000 and ChiNext had capital inflows. In industry themes, heavy - weight sectors such as securities, coal, and colorful metals had large capital inflows [32]. 5. Commodity ETF - Last week, the tracked commodity ETFs had mixed performance. Gold ETF, Bosera Gold, Soybean Meal ETF, Colorful Metals Futures, and Energy and Chemicals rose or fell by 2.12%, 2.11%, 1.48%, 0.59%, and - 1.41% respectively. - In terms of the overall on - market shares of the tracked commodity ETFs, there was a decrease of 0.007 billion shares from the previous week, and in terms of the overall trading volume, there was a decrease of 2.742 billion yuan from the previous week [37]. 6. Overseas ETF - Last week, among the tracked overseas ETFs, the Nasdaq ETF, H - share ETF, and Hang Seng ETF rose or fell by 0.96%, - 0.17%, and 0.26% respectively. - In terms of the overall on - market shares of the tracked overseas ETFs, there was an increase of 0.033 billion shares from the previous week, and in terms of the overall trading volume, there was a decrease of 0.659 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. 7. Money Market ETF - As of the end of last week, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.32%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week, and the one - week SHIBOR was 1.43%, a decrease of 0.06% from the previous week. The seven - day annualized yield of Huabao Tianyi was 1.03%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous week, and the seven - day annualized yield of Yinhua Rili was 1.02%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week. - In terms of on - market shares, the on - market shares of Huabao Tianyi were 74.736 billion shares, a decrease of 0.503 billion shares from the previous week, and the on - market shares of Yinhua Rili were 67.852 billion shares, an increase of 1.856 billion shares from the previous week [43].