1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may approach 4,000 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will likely range - bound with a chance of briefly rising to 8,200. [1] - CBOT soybean oil is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are deteriorating, and the spot basis will likely decline. [1] Meal - Due to the impact on Argentine soybeans and the rise of US soybeans, domestic meal prices follow. With sufficient supply expected, the basis of meal stabilizes, and the support for soybean meal at around 2,900 strengthens. [2] Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is below 14,000, with limited room for significant decline or sharp rise. [4][5] Corn - In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate narrowly, while in the long - term, they are expected to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips. [8] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the early harvest is slow, but the 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest. Domestic sugar supply is abundant, and prices are expected to remain volatile. [12] Cotton - Domestic cotton prices may range - bound after a short - term rise, and further increases depend on downstream improvement. [14] Eggs - National egg supply is sufficient, and prices may first fall and then rise slightly this week. [16] 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On May 21, compared with May 20, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.58%, and the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 1.09%. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market decreased by 4.65%, and the 09 - 01 soybean oil spread decreased by 42.86%. [1] Meal - **Price Changes**: The price of soybean meal futures (M2509) increased by 1.56%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) increased by 1.67%. [2] - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 soybean meal spread increased by 3.03%, and the 09 - 01 rapeseed meal spread increased by 5.29%. [2] Livestock (Pigs) - **Price Changes**: The spot price of pigs in most regions decreased slightly, and the 09 contract price decreased by 0.29%. [4] - **Indicator Changes**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.23%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 4.35%. [4] Corn - **Price Changes**: Corn futures (2507) increased by 0.52%, and corn starch futures (2507) increased by 0.11%. [8] - **Indicator Changes**: The basis of corn decreased by 600.00%, and the north - south trade profit decreased by 166.67%. [8] Sugar - **Price Changes**: Sugar futures (2601) increased by 0.32%, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.08%. [12] - **Industry Data**: National sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and sales increased by 26.07%. [12] Cotton - **Price Changes**: Cotton futures (2509) increased by 0.34%, and the 3128B spot price in Xinjiang increased by 0.15%. [14] - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 14.3%. [14] Eggs - **Price Changes**: The 09 contract of eggs decreased by 0.32%, and the 06 contract decreased by 0.98%. [15] - **Indicator Changes**: The price of egg - laying chicks decreased by 1.19%, and the price of culled hens decreased by 0.57%. [15]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of external shocks on the equity market, leading to increased risk aversion and an overall market pullback in April 2025 [2][8]. Group 1: Equity Market Performance - In April 2025, the CSI 300 index experienced a monthly decline of 3.00%, while the CSI 500 index fell by 3.86%, and the CSI 1000 index saw a decrease of 4.44% [2]. - Strictly constrained monthly excess returns for the CSI 300 were 0.21%, for the CSI 500 were -0.07%, and for the CSI 1000 were 1.12% [2]. - Smart Beta strategies yielded monthly excess returns of 0.09% for the CSI 300, 0.31% for the CSI 500, and 1.20% for the CSI 1000 [2]. - Rotation strategies provided monthly excess returns of 0.13% for the CSI 300, 0.29% for the CSI 500, and 1.59% for the CSI 1000 [2]. Group 2: Private Equity Strategies - In the private equity sector, long strategies showed the least decline with the CSI 300 index down by only 2.64%, while quantitative stock selection strategies had a return of -2.72% [3]. - Absolute return strategies performed well, with ETF arbitrage strategies achieving an annualized return of 14.46% and market-neutral strategies at 6.17% [3]. - Convertible bond strategies underperformed with a return of -0.95%, but had a smaller drawdown compared to other long strategies [3]. - In commodity and derivatives strategies, quantitative CTA strategies led with an annualized return of 10.49%, while futures arbitrage strategies followed at 6.07% [3]. Group 3: Private Fund Issuance and Registration - As of the end of March 2025, there were 19,951 active private fund managers managing 142,278 funds with a total scale of 19.97 trillion yuan [4]. - In March 2025, 1,423 new private funds were registered with a total scale of 631.3 billion yuan, including 1,072 private securities investment funds with a scale of 329.78 billion yuan [4]. - A total of 2,127 private securities investment funds were liquidated, while 85,614 private securities investment funds remained active with a total scale of 5.25 trillion yuan [4].

20250516申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 7217 | 7500 | 7298 | 7094 | 7248 | 7161 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7259 | 7480 | 7339 | 7136 | 7220 | 7193 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -42 | 20 | -41 | -42 | 28 | -32 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.58% | 0.27% | -0.56% | -0.59% | 0.39% | -0.44% | | 场 | 成交量 | 41121 | 228 | 460827 | 19015 | 1 | 379584 | | | 持仓量 | 73716 | 1787 | 527579 | 44608 | 3078 ...

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