Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, marking a new phase in China's clean energy development and reshaping the global hydropower landscape [1] - The project is expected to boost demand across the upstream and downstream industrial chains, particularly for steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, and waterproof materials, acting as a stabilizer against short-term demand fluctuations [1][2] - The project is estimated to generate a total value of 53.5 to 95.4 billion yuan for related turbine and generator businesses, potentially becoming a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government is releasing favorable policies for the building materials sector, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcing that work plans for ten key industries will soon be introduced to stabilize growth [2] - Fixed asset investment in China reached 24.87 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6%, indicating a strong demand for construction materials [2] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project will gradually release demand across various industrial chains, including hydropower construction, infrastructure, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, and cement supply [2][3] Group 3 - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors has shifted from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating a clearer bottom region and improving cost-effectiveness for investments in building materials, infrastructure, and steel sectors [3] - The coal sector, previously underperforming, also shows significant potential for valuation recovery, with dividend yields exceeding 5%, providing a safety margin for investors [3] - The anticipated implementation of special bonds and supportive fiscal policies is expected to gradually manifest in investment and physical volume, with infrastructure investment projected to maintain steady growth throughout the year [3][4] Group 4 - The building materials industry is expected to experience a turnaround in profitability in 2025, with continued demand improvement potentially leading to greater recovery opportunities [4] - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities arising from the industry's marginal improvement and turnaround [4] - The building materials ETF, which tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, has a leading scale of 623 million yuan as of July 18, 2025, indicating strong investor interest [4]

Group 1 - The current policy is positively oriented and is expected to boost the building materials sector, which has been in decline alongside real estate in recent years [1] - High-frequency data indicates that various sub-industries within building materials have reached profit bottoms, with cement and fiberglass expected to bottom out in Q1 2024, and float glass in September 2024 [1] - Demand-side factors include significant government meetings focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, with urban renewal initiatives likely to drive demand for construction materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [1] Group 2 - The building materials ETF (159745) is the largest in the market, closely tracking the CSI All-Share Building Materials Index, and is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumption and the real estate market [2] - Investors without stock accounts can access building materials investment opportunities through the building materials ETF's connecting fund (013020) [3] - As of July 21, 2025, the building materials ETF has a scale of 1.111 billion, ranking first among similar products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over 90% of public FOFs achieved net value growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on diversified asset allocation and structural opportunities in the equity market [1][4]. - Different fund managers have varying investment strategies, with some emphasizing structural opportunities in new productivity sectors such as new consumption, new technology, and new manufacturing [2][4]. - Specific funds like Penghua Yixuan and Chuangjin Hexin have reported significant net value growth rates of 6.95% and 6.06% respectively, showcasing their unique asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets and technology sectors, with funds like Chuangjin Hexin adjusting their allocations to emphasize value stocks and technology growth [3][4]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potentially better performance in the stock market due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic inventory replenishment cycles [5]. - Managers express optimism about structural investment opportunities in the capital market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and the potential for risk appetite recovery [4][5].

Industry Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced construction with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, equivalent to the creation of three Three Gorges projects, focusing on significant civil engineering investments and opportunities in the power and water resources sectors [1] - The Central Fourth Guidance Group and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are addressing irrational competition in the new energy vehicle industry, urging leading companies to engage in lawful and rational competition to maintain a fair market order [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, with a focus on addressing the "involution" issue across multiple policies [10] Company Developments - Yushu Technology has initiated its listing guidance with CITIC Securities as the advisory institution, with its controlling shareholder Wang Xingxing holding approximately 34.76% of the company's shares [2] - Qidi Design has won a bid for the Henan Airport Intelligent Computing Center project, valued at 860 million yuan [15] - Daotong Technology's actual controller has proposed a mid-term dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares for the 2025 fiscal year [15] - Dashi Intelligent has signed a contract worth 122 million yuan for the Shenzhen Metro Line 13 Phase II comprehensive monitoring system project [15] - China First Heavy Industries is expected to report a net loss of between 90 million and 108 million yuan for the first half of the year [15] - General Electric's Singapore company plans to reduce its stake in China West Electric by no more than 3% [15] - Notai Bio has been fined 47.4 million yuan for financial fraud, and its stock will be subject to ST warning [15]

- The report identifies the market's uptrend by analyzing the distance between the 120-day and 20-day moving averages of the WIND All A index, which has expanded from 3.04% to 4.04%, indicating a continued uptrend[2][10][17] - The core observation variable for the market's uptrend is the "profitability effect," which is currently positive at 3.76%, suggesting that incremental funds are likely to continue entering the market[2][4][11] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption, with additional opportunities in the photovoltaic sector due to anti-involution benefits[3][4][11] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and AI applications[3][4][11] - The valuation indicators show that the WIND All A index's overall PE is at the 70th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][11] - Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, the report suggests an 80% position for absolute return products with the WIND All A index as the main stock allocation[3][11] Model Backtesting Results - The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the WIND All A index is 4.04%, indicating a continued uptrend[2][10][17] - The profitability effect value is 3.76%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its uptrend despite short-term fluctuations[2][4][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that a reversal from a difficult situation requires three conditions: extreme adversity, significant positive news, and a high-profile industry or company that attracts attention [1] Group 2 - NIO's current situation is widely recognized as a significant challenge, which is a consensus in the market [2] - The launch of the L90, a six-seater vehicle priced at 190,000 for BAAS and 270,000 for a buyout, is seen as a major positive development, showcasing strong product capabilities compared to competitors like the 2023 Xiaopeng G6 [2] - The electric vehicle sector inherently garners attention, and the L90 is being compared to the Li Auto i8 and the six-seater Model Y, which enhances its visibility and creates a buzz around the product [2]

反内卷，周期的价值轮回 20250613 摘要 2025 年中报业绩预喜率接近 1/3，科技制造及供需偏紧的周期板块预喜 率较高，如电子、化工、机械、汽车、电芯、有色、医药等行业公司数 量靠前。关注中报能否建立或稳定长期预期。 二季度经济复苏动能仍待增强，呈现量增价减格局，工业企业利润承压， 实际现金盈利弱于账面盈利。投资策略应把握贴现率下降主线，聚焦业 绩支撑和产业催化密集赛道，以及反内卷赛道。 7-8 月反内卷困境反转策略有望走强，关注产能出清时间久、库存水平 低、竞争格局优化的板块。大盘股优于小盘股，重视边际上具备业绩增 长或困境反转可能的大众盘股票。 推荐科技板块（军工、电子、创新药及游戏）、供给扰动资源品（有色 化工）及受益资本市场改革的保险券商。困境反转方面关注钢铁、建材、 光伏及养殖业等板块。 稀土价格上涨受中美谈判影响，内盘价格提前启动，标志着进入第三阶 段主升期。关注广晟有色、盛和资源、北方稀土、中国稀土等标的，以 及金力永磁、宁波韵升和正海磁材等核心磁材企业。 Q&A 目前中报季的披露情况如何？各行业的业绩表现有何特点？ 截至 2025 年 7 月 13 日，全 A 股共有 2,486 家 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Models Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term trends and specific market conditions[2][3][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model identifies sectors that are likely to benefit from current market trends and conditions. - It recommends sectors such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and photovoltaic sectors due to their potential for reversal and growth. - The model also suggests focusing on technology sectors, including military and communication, as well as A-share banks and gold stocks[2][3][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying sectors with potential growth and aligning with current market trends[2][3][10] Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on recommending technology sectors based on their beta values and market conditions[2][3][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the beta values of different sectors to identify those with higher potential for growth. - It recommends technology sectors, particularly military and communication, based on their beta values and current market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying high-potential technology sectors based on their beta values[2][3][10] Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to manage stock positions based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[3][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses valuation indicators such as PE and PB ratios to determine the stock positions. - It suggests an 80% stock position for absolute return products based on the current valuation levels of the wind All A index[3][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to managing stock positions based on valuation and market trends[3][10] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Industry Allocation Model**: - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile[3][10] - **Position Suggestion**: 80%[3][10] 2. **TWO BETA Model**: - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile[3][10] - **Position Suggestion**: 80%[3][10] 3. **Position Management Model**: - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile[3][10] - **Position Suggestion**: 80%[3][10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Moving Average Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to identify market trends[2][9][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the wind All A index. - Compute the distance between the two moving averages. - The formula is: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} $$ - If the distance exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend[2][9][14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying market trend shifts from a volatile to an upward trend[2][9][14] Factor Name: Profitability Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the market's profitability effect to predict the inflow of incremental funds[2][10][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the profitability effect value based on market data. - The current profitability effect value is 3.50%, indicating a positive market trend[2][10][14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for predicting the inflow of incremental funds based on market profitability[2][10][14] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Moving Average Distance**: - **Distance**: 3.04%[2][9][14] - **Profitability Effect**: 3.50%[2][10][14] 2. **Profitability Effect**: - **Distance**: 3.04%[2][9][14] - **Profitability Effect**: 3.50%[2][10][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the persistent risks in global financial markets despite the U.S. pausing the "reciprocal tariff" policy, with geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and sovereign debt pressures being significant concerns [1][2] - The report from the UK Office for Budget Responsibility warns that public finances remain fragile post-COVID-19, indicating ineffective government spending control [2] - The A-share market has shown an independent trend amidst global financial turmoil, suggesting that market performance is driven by expectations rather than reality, encapsulated in the concept of "dilemma reversal" [4] Group 2 - The essence of expectation difference is rooted in information asymmetry, where understanding the true nature of transactions is crucial to overcoming this challenge [5] - An example of a stock, Zitian Technology, illustrates that despite an initial surge of over 20% in eight trading days, it subsequently faced a significant decline due to lack of institutional participation [7] - In contrast, Ruifeng High Materials demonstrated a strong correlation between institutional inventory data and market performance, with its stock price more than doubling [9] Group 3 - The importance of quantitative data has increased in the context of global financial instability, with the Bank of England planning to release more market position data to aid financial institutions in risk management [11] - Retail investors face challenges primarily due to information asymmetry, and quantitative tools can help mitigate psychological biases that lead to poor investment decisions [11][12] - The article emphasizes the need to identify genuine opportunities within the A-share market despite global uncertainties, with quantitative data serving as a tool to penetrate superficial market appearances [12] Group 4 - The article concludes that while risks persist, they often coexist with opportunities, and utilizing quantitative tools can provide clearer insights into market realities, enabling more rational investment decisions [14]