纳斯达克上周上涨6.5%，四月份迄今已上涨1%。Callahan认为，这一反弹由多个因素推动：超预期财报 （科技、媒体和电信行业展现最高超预期）、波动性降低（VIX回落至20中段）、利率环境稳定（10年 期约4.25%）、仓位更加清晰（根据高盛数据，科技股敞口接近多年低点）以及政策前景改善（美国经 济政策不确定性指数回落至3月水平）。 但有一个残酷的事实：即使公司财报超预期也不能在资本市场上获得应有的认可。Callahan报告指出， 在当前宏观环境下，业绩超预期的公司在次日（T+1）平均仅上涨50个基点，远低于101个基点的历史 平均水平，而未达预期的公司则下跌247个基点，比下跌206个基点的历史平均水平更为严重。 美股正处于科技巨头财报飓风的风眼中，投资者面临的严峻现实是：即使业绩超预期，股价也难获应有 回报。 本周，美股将迎来一系列重量级科技巨头（包括Meta、微软、亚马逊和苹果等）的财报。知名TMT分 析师Peter Callahan在最新报告中指出，在当下复杂的宏观环境下，投资者应密切关注这些公司的前景指 引，而非仅仅关注当季业绩，因为当前的市场环境已经清晰表明：即便业绩超预期，也未必能获得预期 中 ...

Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment significantly influences the growth theme market, with a stable macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2025 providing a conducive space for theme market development [2][3] - In early 2023, the adjustment of pandemic policies led to a rapid release of pent-up demand, creating a "strong expectation, weak reality" macro environment that improved market risk appetite and supported the ChatGPT theme market [2] - By early 2024, economic recovery momentum weakened, leading to a constrained space for the SORA theme market due to pressures from slowing consumption recovery and real estate investment [2] - The current macro environment characterized by "steady recovery + policy support" has led to a neutral overall expectation for economic growth, which is favorable for the further development of the current technology theme market [2][3] Style Switching - Sustainable fundamental expectations are necessary for the further expansion of the market, as seen in the divergence between the ChatGPT theme and growth/profitability styles in 2023 [3][4] - The SORA market in 2024 differed from the previous round as market expectations for net profit growth in the AI sector significantly increased, leading to a simultaneous strengthening of growth styles [3][4] - The strong performance of defensive styles such as dividends and low valuations from 2022 to mid-2024 impacted the theme market, with the ChatGPT theme failing to boost growth styles [4] - The current growth style has shown strength after a pullback in January, with a high degree of industry diffusion, suggesting a potential extension of the current market duration while monitoring the rebound of defensive styles [4]