Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signals potential interest rate cut in September, indicating a shift in monetary policy due to changing economic risks [3][4][8] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Powell highlights that the labor market appears stable but is experiencing a unique balance due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, leading to rising downside risks for employment [3][12] - The U.S. GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, significantly lower than the projected 2.5% for 2024, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [13] - Inflation risks are currently tilted upwards, while employment risks are leaning downwards, creating a challenging situation for policymakers [4][14] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell suggests that the baseline outlook and risk balance may necessitate adjustments to the policy stance, with a reasonable scenario indicating a one-time increase in price levels due to tariffs [3][14] - The market now anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with traders pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [8] - Powell's comments indicate a dovish stance, suggesting he may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [7][8] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, the dollar index fell approximately 0.5%, and U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the two-year yield decreasing by 9 basis points to 3.70% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones rising over 700 points, the Nasdaq increasing by nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 gaining about 1.5% [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, with most believing inflation risk outweighs employment risk. In the tin market, despite Myanmar's restart of mining permit approvals, actual tin ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, production rebounded in July due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most maintaining only essential production and orders being mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, with downstream enterprises making essential purchases at low prices. Domestic and LME inventories are on a downward trend. Technically, positions are decreasing, and both bulls and bears are cautious, expecting range - bound oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan. The closing price of the September - October contract was down 240 yuan. LME 3 - month tin was at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 18,744 lots, down 633 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,514 lots, down 642 lots. LME tin total inventory was 1,630 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,792 tons, down 13 tons, and the warehouse receipt was down 25 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 266,800 yuan/ton, down 184 - 700 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 268,410 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 320 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 81 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,830 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration announced that the total electricity consumption in July was 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the majority of Federal Reserve members believe that the risks associated with inflation outweigh those related to employment [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation management as a priority in their monetary policy decisions [1] - It suggests that the current economic environment is prompting a reassessment of the balance between inflation control and employment stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that most officials prioritize inflation risks over employment risks, suggesting a shift in focus towards managing inflationary pressures [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Risks - Majority of officials expressed that inflation risks are currently more significant than employment risks, indicating a potential tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation [1] Tariff Impact - Many officials noted that the effects of tariffs are becoming more apparent and will require time to fully manifest, suggesting ongoing economic adjustments related to trade policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, indicated that businesses may require up to 12 months to adapt to the current pricing environment, highlighting the challenging conditions faced by the economy [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is described as very difficult, suggesting significant challenges for businesses [1] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data has intensified the perception of employment risks, indicating potential instability in the labor market [1]

Core Insights - The recent data highlights employment risks, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Bostic emphasizes that today's data underscores the risks associated with employment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that inflation risks are significantly greater than employment risks, suggesting a shift in focus towards managing inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Inflation risks are currently viewed as more pressing compared to employment risks, indicating a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve [1] - The balance between employment and inflation risks is evolving, with employment risks potentially stabilizing [1] Group 2: Employment Risks - Employment risks are becoming more aligned with inflation risks, suggesting that the labor market may not be as precarious as previously thought [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic emphasizes that inflation risks are significantly greater than employment risks [1] Group 1 - Bostic's comments suggest a prioritization of controlling inflation over concerns about job market stability [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy focus towards combating inflation [1] - Bostic's perspective aligns with broader Federal Reserve strategies aimed at stabilizing prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risks associated with employment may be balancing out with inflation risks according to the Federal Reserve's Bostic [1] Group 1 - Employment risks are potentially stabilizing in relation to inflation risks, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [1]

美联储理事库格勒：现在看到通胀风险和就业风险处于下行之路上。 ...